Results for “accurate quantification” — Page 2

NASA NTRS2014

Simulation of Seasonal Snow Microwave TB Using Coupled Multi-Layered Snow Evolution and Microwave Emission Models

The accurate quantification of SWE has important societal benefits, including improving domestic and agricultural water planning, flood forecasting and electric power generation. However, passive-microwave SWE algorithms suffer from variations in TB due to snow metamorphism, difficult to distinguish from those due to SWE variations. Coupled snow evolution-emission models are able to predict snow metamorphism, allowing us to account for emissivity changes. They can also be used to identify weaknesses in the snow evolution model. Moreover, thoroughly evaluating coupled models is a contribution toward the assimilation of TB, which leads to a significant increase in the accuracy of SWE estimates.

microwave↗

NASA NTRS2014

Demonstration of SiC Pressure Sensors at 750 C

We report the first demonstration of MEMS-based 4H-SiC piezoresistive pressure sensors tested at 750 C and in the process confirmed the existence of strain sensitivity recovery with increasing temperature above 400 C, eventually achieving near or up to 100% of the room temperature values at 750 C. This strain sensitivity recovery phenomenon in 4H-SiC is uncharacteristic of the well-known monotonic decrease in strain sensitivity with increasing temperature in silicon piezoresistors. For the three sensors tested, the room temperature full-scale output (FSO) at 200 psig ranged between 29 and 36 mV. Although the FSO at 400 C dropped by about 60%, full recovery was achieved at 750 C. This result will allow the operation of SiC pressure sensors at higher temperatures, thereby permitting deeper insertion into the engine combustion chamber to improve the accurate quantification of combustor dynamics.

Semiconductor↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗

NASA NTRS2015

Airborne Lidar-Based Estimates of Tropical Forest Structure in Complex Terrain: Opportunities and Trade-Offs for REDD+

Background: Carbon stocks and fluxes in tropical forests remain large sources of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Airborne lidar remote sensing is a powerful tool for estimating aboveground biomass, provided that lidar measurements penetrate dense forest vegetation to generate accurate estimates of surface topography and canopy heights. Tropical forest areas with complex topography present a challenge for lidar remote sensing. Results: We compared digital terrain models (DTM) derived from airborne lidar data from a mountainous region of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil to 35 ground control points measured with survey grade GNSS receivers. The terrain model generated from full-density (approx. 20 returns/sq m) data was highly accurate (mean signed error of 0.19 +/-0.97 m), while those derived from reduced-density datasets (8/sq m, 4/sq m, 2/sq m and 1/sq m) were increasingly less accurate. Canopy heights calculated from reduced-density lidar data declined as data density decreased due to the inability to accurately model the terrain surface. For lidar return densities below 4/sq m, the bias in height estimates translated into errors of 80-125 Mg/ha in predicted aboveground biomass. Conclusions: Given the growing emphasis on the use of airborne lidar for forest management, carbon monitoring, and conservation efforts, the results of this study highlight the importance of careful survey planning and consistent sampling for accurate quantification of aboveground biomass stocks and dynamics. Approaches that rely primarily on canopy height to estimate aboveground biomass are sensitive to DTM errors from variability in lidar sampling density.

Airborne lidar↗

NASA NTRS2014

Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination V: XRF Analyses of Interstellar Dust Candidates at ESRF ID13

Here, we report analyses by synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microscopy of the elemental composition of eight candidate impact features extracted from the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector (SIDC). Six of the features were unambiguous tracks, and two were crater-like features. Five of the tracks are so-called midnight tracks that is, they had trajectories consistent with an origin either in the interstellar dust stream or as secondaries from impacts on the Sample Return Capsule (SRC). In a companion paper reporting synchrotron X-ray diffraction analyses of ISPE candidates, we show that two of these particles contain natural crystalline materials: the terminal particle of track 30contains olivine and spinel, and the terminal particle of track 34 contains olivine. Here, we show that the terminal particle of track 30, Orion, shows elemental abundances, normalized to Fe, that are close to CI values, and a complex, fine-grained structure. The terminal particle of track 34, Hylabrook, shows abundances that deviate strongly from CI, but shows little fine structure and is nearly homogenous. The terminal particles of other midnight tracks, 29 and 37, had heavy element abundances below detection threshold. A third, track28, showed a composition inconsistent with an extraterrestrial origin, but also inconsistent with known spacecraft materials. A sixth track, with a trajectory consistent with secondary ejecta from an impact on one of the spacecraft solar panels, contains abundant Ce and Zn. This is consistent with the known composition of the glass covering the solar panel. Neither crater-like feature is likely to be associated with extraterrestrial materials. We also analyzed blank aerogel samples to characterize background and variability between aerogel tiles. We found significant differences in contamination levels and compositions, emphasizing the need for local background subtraction for accurate quantification.

Stardust↗

NASA NTRS2014

High-Precision Measurement of Eu/Eu* in Geological Glasses via LA-ICP-MS Analysis

Elemental fractionation during laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) analysis has been historically documented between refractory and volatile elements. In this work, however, we observed fractionation between light rare earth elements (LREEs) and heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) when using ablation strategies involving large spot sizes (greater than 100 millimeters) and line scanning mode. In addition: (1) ion yields decrease when using spot sizes above 100 millimeters; (2) (Eu/Eu*)(sub raw) (i.e. Europium anomaly) positively correlates with carrier gas (He) flow rate, which provides control over the particle size distribution of the aerosol reaching the ICP; (3) (Eu/Eu*)(sub raw) shows a positive correlation with spot size, and (4) the changes in REE signal intensity, induced by the He flow rate change, roughly correlate with REE condensation temperatures. The REE fractionation is likely driven by the slight but significant difference in their condensation temperatures. Large particles may not be completely dissociated in the ICP and result in preferential evaporation of the less refractory LREEs and thus non-stoichiometric particle-ion conversion. This mechanism may also be responsible for Sm-Eu-Gd fractionation as Eu is less refractory than Sm and Gd. The extent of fractionation depends upon the particle size distribution of the aerosol, which in turn is influenced by the laser parameters and matrix. Ablation pits and lines defined by low aspect ratios produce a higher proportion of large particles than high aspect ratio ablation, as confirmed by measurements of particle size distribution in the laser induced aerosol. Therefore, low aspect ratio ablation introduces particles that cannot be decomposed and/or atomized by the ICP and thus results in exacerbated elemental fractionation. Accurate quantification of REE concentrations and Eu/Eu* requires reduction of large particle production during laser ablation. For the reference materials analyzed in this work, the 100 millimeters spot measurements of Eu/Eu* agreed with GeoRem preferred values within 3 percent. Our long-term analyses of Eu/Eu* in MPI-DING glass KL-2G and USGS glass BIR-1G were reproducible at 3 percent (2 RSD).

geological glasses↗

NASA NTRS2015

Concept Demonstration of Dopant Selective Reactive Etching (DSRIE) in Silicon Carbide

Accurate quantification of combustor pressure dynamics for the primary purpose of experimental validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes requires the use of robust, reliable and sensitive pressure sensors that can resolve sub--pound-per-square-inch pressure levels in high temperature environments (i.e., combustor). The state of the art microfabricated piezoresistive silicon carbide (SiC) pressure sensors that we have developed are capable of operating reliably at 600 degrees Centigrade. This technology was used in support of the ARMD ISRP-ERA (NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Integrated System Research Project - Environmentally Responsible Aviation) program to quantify combustor thermoacoustic instabilities. The results showed that while the SiC pressure sensors survived the high temperature and measured instabilities, the diaphragm (force collector) was not thin enough to be sensitive in resolving sub-pound-per-square-inch pressures; 30 meters is the thinnest diaphragm achievable with conventional reactive ion etching (RIE) processes. Therefore, this precludes its use for sub-pound-per-square-inch pressure measurement with high fidelity. In order to effectively resolve sub-pound-per-square-inch pressures, a thinner more sensitive diaphragm (10 meters) is needed. To achieve this would require a new and innovative fabrication process technique.

static↗

NASA NTRS2015

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

Australia↗

NASA NTRS2017

EMIC Wave Scale Size in the Inner Magnetosphere: Observations From the Dual Van Allen Probes

Estimating the spatial scales of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is critical for quantifying their overall scattering efficiency and effects on thermal plasma, ring current, and radiation belt particles. Using measurements from the dual Van Allen Probes in 2013-2014, we characterize the spatial and temporal extents of regions of EMIC wave activity and how these depend on local time and radial distance within the inner magnetosphere. Observations are categorized into three types: waves observed by only one spacecraft, waves measured by both spacecraft simultaneously, and waves observed by both spacecraft with some time lag. Analysis reveals that dayside (and H+ band) EMIC waves more frequently span larger spatial areas, while nightside (and He+ band) waves are more often localized but can persist many hours. These investigations give insight into the nature of EMIC wave generation and support more accurate quantification of their effects on the ring current and outer radiation belt.

Blum, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Earned Value Management (EVM) Implementation Handbook

The purpose of this handbook is to provide Earned Value Management (EVM) guidance for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts and subcontracts in a consolidated reference document. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a project?s scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions.

Planning Package↗

NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Adjustment of Simulation Parameters for Efficient Vehicle Prognostics

Model-based diagnostics and prognostics rely on state estimation and uncertainty management algorithms to produce useful information for system operators and maintainers. This information enables more informed operational decisions, condition-based maintenance, and overall mission safety assurance. Typically, uncertainty is associated with vehicle state-of-health estimation and prediction results because of modeling errors, internal or external sources of noise, and sensor inaccuracy. Probabilistic uncertainty management methods including Sequential Monte Carlo simulation are commonly used to reason about state-of-health estimates and predictions in the presence of these sources of uncertainty. However, such algorithms can be computationally expensive as they require a very large number of samples to obtain a sufficiently accurate quantification of the end of life probability distribution. As a result, highly mobile autonomous systems that leverage the prognostic results for mission-level replanning are often constrained in their processing capability because of these computationally expensive simulation approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate algorithmic methods for dynamically adjusting simulation time step as well as number of samples to achieve highly efficient prognostic results while maintaining results accuracy. Results obtained from simulated flight experiments of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle are presented to verify the efficacy of such algorithms.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRS2018

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models over the Continental U.S.

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) components of plant transpiration (T), soil evaporation (E) and evaporation of the intercepted water (I) is necessary for improving our understanding of the links between the carbon and water cycles. Recent studies have noted that, among the modeled estimates, large disagreements exist in the relative contributions of T, E and I to the total ET. As these models are often used in data assimilation environments for incorporating and extending ET relevant remote sensing measurements, understanding the sources of inter-model differences in ET components is also necessary for improving the utilization of such remote sensing measurements. This study quantifies the contributions of two key factors explaining inter-model disagreements to the uncertainty in total ET: (1) contribution of the local partitioning and (2) regional distribution of ET. The analysis is conducted by using outputs from a suite of land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) configuration. For most of these models, transpiration is the dominant component of the ET partition. The results indicate that the uncertainty in local partitioning dominates the inter-model spread in modeled soil evaporation E. The inter-model differences in T are dominated by the uncertainty in the distribution of ET over the Eastern U.S. and the local partitioning uncertainty in the Western U.S. The results also indicate that uncertainty in the T estimates is the primary driver of total ET errors. Over the majority of the U.S., the contribution of the two factors of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is non-trivial.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2018

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models Over the Continental U.S.

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) components of plant transpiration (T), soil evaporation (E) and evaporation of the intercepted water (I) is necessary for improving our understanding of the links between the carbon and water cycles. Recent studies have noted that, among the modeled estimates, large disagreements exist in the relative contributions of T, E and I to the total ET. As these models are often used in data assimilation environments for incorporating and extending ET relevant remote sensing measurements, understanding the sources of inter-model differences in ET components is also necessary for improving the utilization of such remote sensing measurements. This study quantifies the contributions of two key factors explaining inter-model disagreements to the uncertainty in total ET: (1) contribution of the local partitioning and (2) regional distribution of ET. The analysis is conducted by using outputs from a suite of land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) configuration. For most of these models, transpiration is the dominant component of the ET partition. The results indicate that the uncertainty in local partitioning dominates the inter-model spread in modeled soil evaporation E. The inter-model differences in T are dominated by the uncertainty in the distribution of ET over the Eastern U.S. and the local partitioning uncertainty in the Western U.S. The results also indicate that uncertainty in the T estimates is the primary driver of total ET errors. Over the majority of the U.S., the contribution of the two factors of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is non-trivial.

evapotranspiration partitioning; transpiration; so↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Electric Propulsion Erosion Measurements

Uncertainty in erosion rates as measured by different methods is discussed and quantified. The work focuses on case studies from components on the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) Hall thruster, but the methods can be extended for many electric propulsion applications. The primary method used for evaluating erosion is non-contact profilometry of masked and exposed components. Accurate quantification of the erosion rates of components is critical to determining lifetime and is therefore critical to mission planning purposes.

Mackey, J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Electric Propulsion Erosion Measurements

Uncertainty in erosion rates as measured by different methods is discussed and quantified. The work focuses on case studies from components on the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) Hall thruster, but the methods can be extended for many electric propulsion applications. The primary method used for evaluating erosion is non-contact profilometry of masked and exposed components. Accurate quantification of the erosion rates of components is critical to determining lifetime and is therefore critical to mission planning purposes.

Mackey, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description

The purpose of this Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description is to provide guidance in NASA’s Earned Value Management Capability for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts and subcontracts. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a project’s scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions. This system description contains detailed information on implementation of EVM processes, procedures, roles and responsibilities.

Schumann, Deborah C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Uncertainty in Electric Propulsion Erosion Measurements

Uncertainty in erosion rates as measured by different methods is discussed and quantified. The work focuses on case studies from components on the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) Hall thruster, but the methods can be extended for many electric propulsion applications. The primary method used for evaluating erosion is non-contact profilometry of masked and exposed components. Accurate quantification of the erosion rates of components is critical to determining lifetime and is therefore critical to mission planning purposes.

Jonathan A Mackey↗