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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Char Yield of High-Temperature Resins

A simulation protocol is developed to predict the char yield of organic resins during high-temperature processing. Simulation protocol in silico methods can help screen promising new formulations for advanced materials, but previously no chemistry-sensitive technique existed to predict the important experimental value of char yield. The method utilizes a reactive force field (ReaxFF) to model the chemical transformation of precursor monomers into carbonized structures during three processing stages: ramp-up to processing temperatures (~3000 K), pyrolysis, and quenching. Achieving good agreement with experimental char yields requires continuous removal of small byproduct molecules to mimic outgassing, and the application of high pressure to eliminate porosity and encourage graphitization. More than ten different resin chemistries are investigated, including arylacetylenes, cyanate esters, phthalonitriles, and polyimides, representing a diverse group of precursors with respect to initial cyclic content, heteroatoms and reactive groups. The protocol correctly predicts the relative char yield between the investigated chemistries and provides quantitative agreement with experimental values, especially for high char yield resins. The properties of the resins during processing are compared, including outgassing products, morphology of the final chemical configurations, cyclic content and mechanical properties.

polymer simulations, molecular dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Char Yield of High-Temperature Resins

A simulation technique has been developed for predicting the char yield of organic resins during high-temperature processing. In silico methods can aid in the screening of new advanced materials for a number of important properties, but no chemistry-sensitive protocol currently exists for predicting the important experimental value of char yield. The proposed method utilizes a reactive force field (ReaxFF) to model the chemical transformation of precursor monomers into carbonized structures during three processing stages: ramp-up to pyrolysis temperatures (~3000 K), pyrolysis, and quenching. Achieving good agreement with experimental char yields requires continuous removal of small by-product molecules to mimic outgassing, and the application of high pressure to encourage the formation of a dense, glassy network. Six different resin chemistries were investigated: an ethynyl, a phenylethynyl, a cyanate ester, a phthalonitrile, acrylonitrile, and adamantane. These candidates represent a diverse group of precursors with respect to initial cyclic content, presence of heteroatoms, and types of reactive groups. The protocol developed accurately predicts the relative char yield between the investigated chemistries and provides quantitative agreement with experimental values, especially for high char yield resins. Several simulated properties of the carbonized structures are compared with experimental results, including outgassing products, morphology of the final chemical configurations, cyclic content, and mechanical properties.

polymer simulations, molecular dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗
NASA NTRS1984

Simplified combustion noise theory yielding a prediction of fluctuating pressure level

The first order equations for the conservation of mass and momentum in differential form are combined for an ideal gas to yield a single second order partial differential equation in one dimension and time. Small perturbation analysis is applied. A Fourier transformation is performed that results in a second order, constant coefficient, nonhomogeneous equation. The driving function is taken to be the source of combustion noise. A simplified model describing the energy addition via the combustion process gives the required source information for substitution in the driving function. This enables the particular integral solution of the nonhomogeneous equation to be found. This solution multiplied by the acoustic pressure efficiency predicts the acoustic pressure spectrum measured in turbine engine combustors. The prediction was compared with the overall sound pressure levels measured in a CF6-50 turbofan engine combustor and found to be in excellent agreement.

Huff, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Remote Sensing Program

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

Philipson, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Fault type predictions from stress distributions on planetary surfaces - Importance of fault initiation depth

The prediction of fault type on planetary surfaces from model stresses calculated at depth is discussed. These fault-type predictions yield different faults than those predicted using the surface criteria commonly employed in geophysical models. For elastic-plate flexure models of mascon loading on the moon, stresses calculated at the surface predict the occurrence of strike-slip faulting at the radial distance where grabens are found. Normal faults bounding lunar grabens and thrust faults responsible for wrinkle ridges are analyzed. It is found that the former initiate at the mechanical discontinuity that separates the breccia of the megaregolith from in situ fractured rock and that the latter initiate at the mechanical discontinuity between basalt layers and the underlying basin floor. The difference between elastic constants for the outer few kilometers of brecciated megaregolith and the underlying lunar lithosphere are evaluated. Superposing nonisotropic stresses resulting from the weight of overburden to the depth of the relevant mechanical discontinuity yield stresses that predict wrinkle ridges in the basin centers and grabens outside the basin margin, and eliminate the predicted zone of strike-slip faults.

Golombek, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

An integrated study of earth resources in the State of California using remote sensing techniques

Remote sensing activities for the management of California's water project are reported. Integrated efforts are based largely on airborne remote sensing data processing to inventory the various kinds of earth resources observed. Work centered on defining parameters pertinent to determine water yield and discernible through remote sensing techniques; (2) determining accuracy in measuring and mapping parameters using remote sensing data flown to various specifications; and (3) relating water yield predictions to actual water yields. Remote sensing imagery of the Perris valley shows that land developers established a number of locations to promote present agricultural land for non-agricultural land use.

Colwell, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Contribution of Solar Brightening to the US Maize Yield Trend

Predictions of crop yield under future climate change are predicated on historical yield trends1,2,3, hence it is important to identify the contributors to historical yield gains and their potential for continued increase. The large gains in maize yield in the US Corn Belt have been attributed to agricultural technologies4, ignoring the potential contribution of solar brightening (decadal-scale increases in incident solar radiation) reported for much of the globe since the mid-1980s. In this study, using a novel biophysical/empirical approach, we show that solar brightening contributed approximately 27% of the US Corn Belt yield trend from 1984 to 2013. Accumulated solar brightening during the post-flowering phase of development of maize increased during the past three decades, causing the yield increase that previously had been attributed to agricultural technology. Several factors are believed to cause solar brightening, but their relative importance and future outlook are unknown, making prediction of continued solar brightening and its future contribution to yield gain uncertain. Consequently, results of this study call into question the implicit use of historical yield trends in predicting yields under future climate change scenarios.

Matthijs Tollenaar↗
NASA NTRS1979

LACIE sampling design

The sampling design in LACIE consisted of two major components, one for wheat acreage estimation and one for wheat yield prediction. The acreage design was basically a classical survey for which the sampling unit was a 5- by 6-nautical mile segment; however, there were complications caused by measurement errors and loss of data. Yield was predicted by sampling meteorological data from weather stations within a region and then using those data as input to previously fitted regression equations. Wheat production was not estimated directly, but was computed by multiplying yield and acreage estimates. The allocation of samples to countries is discussed as well as the allocation and selection of segments in strata/substrata.

Feiveson, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗
NASA NTRS1962

INVESTIGATION OF YIELD COLLAPSE OF STIFFENED CIRCULAR CYLINDRICAL SHELLS WITH A GIVEN OUT-OF-ROUNDNESS

The effect of out-of-roundness on the yield collapse strength of ring stiffened circular cylindrical shells under hydrostatic pressure has been determined experimentally. On the basis of the experimental data and theoretical stress distributions, empirical relations have been developed which, in conjunction with the theoretically predictable yield collapse strength of round ring-stiffened circular cylindrical shells, permits the prediction of the yield collapse strength of shells with out-of-roundness.

CYLINDRICAL SHELL↗
NASA NTRS2000

Lightning Scaling Laws Revisited

Scaling laws relating storm electrical generator power (and hence lightning flash rate) to charge transport velocity and storm geometry were originally posed by Vonnegut (1963). These laws were later simplified to yield simple parameterizations for lightning based upon cloud top height, with separate parameterizations derived over land and ocean. It is demonstrated that the most recent ocean parameterization: (1) yields predictions of storm updraft velocity which appear inconsistent with observation, and (2) is formally inconsistent with the theory from which it purports to derive. Revised formulations consistent with Vonnegut's original framework are presented. These demonstrate that Vonnegut's theory is, to first order, consistent with observation. The implications of assuming that flash rate is set by the electrical generator power, rather than the electrical generator current, are examined. The two approaches yield significantly different predictions about the dependence of charge transfer per flash on storm dimensions, which should be empirically testable. The two approaches also differ significantly in their explanation of regional variability in lightning observations.

Boccippio, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Remote sensing techniques for mapping range sites and estimating range yield

Image interpretation procedures for determining range yield and for extrapolating range information were investigated for an area of the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in southwestern South Dakota. Soil and vegetative data collected in the field utilizing a grid sampling design and digital film data from color infrared film and black and white films were analyzed statistically using correlation and regression techniques. The pattern recognition techniques used were K-class, mode seeking, and thresholding. The herbage yield equation derived for the detailed test site was used to predict yield for an adjacent similar field. The herbage yield estimate for the adjacent field was 1744 lbs. of dry matter per acre and was favorably compared to the mean yield of 1830 lbs. of dry matter per acre based upon ground observations. Also an inverse relationship was observed between vegetative cover and the ratio of MSS 5 to MSS 7 of ERTS-1 imagery.

Benson, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Mechanical response of unidirectional boron/aluminum under combined loading

Three test methods were employed to characterize the response of unidirectional Boron/Aluminum metal matrix composite material under monotonic and cyclic loading conditions, namely, losipescu shear, off-axis tension and compression. The characterization of the elastic and plastic response includes the elastic material properties, yielding and subsequent hardening of the unidirectional composite under different stress ratios in the material principal coordinate system. Yield loci generated for different stress ratios are compared for the three different test methods, taking into account residual stresses and specimen geometry. Subsequently, the yield locus for in-plane shear is compared with the prediction of an analytical, micromechanical model. The influence of the scatter in the experimental data on the predicted yield surface is also analyzed. Lastly, the experimental material strengths in tension and compression are correlated with the maximum stress and the Tsai-Wu failure criterion.

Becker, Wolfgang↗
NASA NTRS1982

Winter wheat stand density determination and yield estimates from handheld and airborne scanners

Radiance measurements from handheld (Exotech 100-A) and air-borne (Daedalus DEI 1260) radiometers were related to wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) stand densities (simulated winter wheat winterkill) and to grain yield for a field located 11 km northwest of Sidney, Montana, on a Williams loam soil (fine-loamy, mixed Typic Argiborolls) where a semidwarf hard red spring wheat cultivar was needed to stand. Radiances were measured with the handheld radiometer on clear mornings throughout the growing season. Aircraft overflight measurements were made at the end of tillering and during the early stem extension period, and the mid-heading period. The IR/red ratio and normalized difference vegetation index were used in the analysis. The aircraft measurements corroborated the ground measurements inasmuch as wheat stand densities were detected and could be evaluated at an early enough growth stage to make management decision. The aircraft measurements also corroborated handheld measurements when related to yield prediction. The IR/red ratio, although there was some growth stage dependency, related well to yield when measured from just past tillering until about the watery-ripe stage.

Aase, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Efficient, Low-Cost Fan System Research for General Aviation and Commuter Aircraft

This document reports research investigations into efficient, low-cost fan system concepts for high bypass turbofans for future general aviation and commuter aircraft. The research specifically addressed lower pressure ratio fans for good propulsive efficiencies in the 200 to 400 knot flight speed regime. Aerodynamic design analyses yielded predicted efficiency in area of 91 to 92 percent (adiabatic). Low-cost manufacturing studies yielded an aluminum blisk rotor and investment cast stator having lowest cost. Structural design analyses yielded a design having excellent vibratory characteristics and the ability to pass One- and Four-pound bird strikes satisfactorily. The low speed and low pressure fans of the study are estimated to have 24 to 30 EPNdB lower community noise levels than larger, high pressure ratio transonic fans.

Merrill, G. L.↗