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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

XSub: Explanation-Driven Adversarial Attack against Blackbox Classifiers via Feature Substitution

Despite its significant benefits in enhancing the transparency and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, explainable AI (XAI) can unintentionally provide adversaries with insights into blackbox models, increasing their vulnerability to various attacks. In this paper, we develop a novel explanation-driven adversarial attack against blackbox classifiers based on feature substitution, called XSub. The key idea of XSub is to strategically replace important features (identified via XAI) in the original sample with corresponding important features of a different label, thereby increasing the likelihood of the model misclassifying the perturbed sample. XSub only requires a minimal number of queries and can be easily extended to launch backdoor attacks in case the attacker has access to the model's training data. Our evaluation shows that XSub is not only effective and stealthy but also low-cost, showcasing its feasibility across a wide range of AI applications.

adversarial attack↗
DOE OSTI2023

BUTTER-Clarifier [SWR-23-61]

This repository contains a python package of neural network interpretability techniques (interpretability) and a keras callback to easily compute and capture data related to these techniques (values metrics) during training. It was developed to be used with NREL's BUTTER Deep Learning Experimental Framework, but does not depend on this framework and may be useful to projects outside of this framework. The vision for this codebase is to collect algorithms for explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in a single framework that is easy to use, easy to read, and can be expand upon. Here, we package XAI algorithms into a module called "metrics", which are implemented as python functions. The return type of a metric is typically a dictionary holding data of multiple data types, such as real values and numpy matrices. Callbacks and any other connector code is provided as necessary in a separate module to make these metrics more easily usable. This project depends on Tensorflow's Keras API, although it would be nice to try and support multiple backends one day. Related to: https://github.com/NREL/BUTTER-Empirical-Deep-Learning-Experimental-Framework

Perr-Sauer, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding oxidation of Fe-Cr-Al alloys through explainable artificial intelligence

Abstract The oxidation resistance of FeCrAl based on alloying composition and oxidizing conditions is predicted using a combinatorial experimental and artificial intelligence approach. A neural network (NN) classification model was trained on the experimental FeCrAl dataset produced at GE Research. Furthermore, using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) tool, we explore how the NN can showcase further material insights that are unavailable directly from a black-box model. We report that high Al and Cr content forms protective oxide layer, while Mo in FeCrAl creates thick unprotective oxide scale that is vulnerable to spallation due to thermal expansion. Graphical abstract

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for Explainable Artificial Intelligence

We explored ways of quantifying information in a neural network. This can be used to determine the right size of a network or to infer the way in which a network is processing information. The first year and a half was somewhat exploratory while the last half of the project focused on approaches that seemed to show the most promise. The introduce a new way of computing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) saliency maps that is several orders of magnitude faster than methods with similar fidelity We call it FastCAM. The method works be combining a Class Activation Map (CAM) method such as GradCAM with a forward activation map computed with a statistic we call SMOE Scale. The addition of the forward activation maps to CAM methods seems to always improve their fidelity. At the same time, computational overhead is not increased by very much. While Gradients with SmoothGrad scores better on some fidelity measures, it is overall not as good and requires more than 1500 times to compute. We demonstrate two completed applications of FastCAM on tasks outside of the LDRD at LLNL. The source code for FastCAM is currently being implanted into Captum, the official XAI toolkit for the popular deep learning toolkit PyTorch. The LDRD currently has 13 publications released to the public. 10 of them are journal length.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

FedCSpc: A Cross-Silo Federated Learning System With Error-Bounded Lossy Parameter Compression

Cross-Silo federated learning is widely used for scaling deep neural network (DNN) training over data silos from different locations worldwide while guaranteeing data privacy. Communication has been identified as the main bottleneck when training large-scale models due to large-volume model parameters and gradient transmission across public networks with limited bandwidth. Most previous works focus on gradient compression, while limited work tries to compress parameters that can not be ignored and extremely affect communication performance during the training. Here, to bridge this gap, we propose FedCSpc: an efficient cross-silo federated learning system with an XAI-driven adaptive parameter compression strategy for large-scale model training. Our work substantially differs from existing gradient compression techniques due to the distinct data features of gradient and parameter. The key contributions of this paper are fourfold. (1) Our designed FedCSpc proposes to compress the parameter during the training using the state-of-the-art error-bounded lossy compressor – SZ3. (2) We develop an adaptive compression error bound adjustment algorithm to guarantee the model accuracy effectively. (3) We exploit an efficient approach to utilize the idle CPU resources of clients to compress the parameters. (4) We perform a comprehensive evaluation with a wide range of models and benchmarks on a GPU cluster with 65 GPUs. Results show that FedCSpc can achieve the same model accuracy as FedAvg while reducing the data volume of parameters and gradients in communication by up to 7.39× and 288×, respectively. With 32 clients on a 4 Gb size model, FedCSpc significantly outperforms FedAvg in wall-clock time in the emulated WAN environment (at the bandwidth of 1 Gbps or lower without loss of generality).

SZ3↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Temporal Deep Learning Models to Estimate Daily Snow Water Equivalent Over the Rocky Mountains

Abstract In this study we construct and compare three different deep learning (DL) models for estimating daily snow water equivalent (SWE) from high‐resolution gridded meteorological fields over the Rocky Mountain region. To train the DL models, Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) station‐based SWE observations are used as the prediction target. All DL models produce higher median Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values than a conceptual SWE model and interpolated gridded data sets, although mean squared errors also tend to be higher. Sensitivity of the SWE prediction to the model's input variables is analyzed using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, yielding insight into the physical relationships learned by the models. This method reveals the dominant role precipitation and temperature play in snowpack dynamics. In applying our models to estimate SWE throughout the Rocky Mountains, an extrapolation problem arises since the statistical properties of SWE (e.g., annual maximum) and geographical properties of individual grid points (e.g., elevation) differ from the training data. This problem is solved by normalizing the SWE with its historical maximum value to alleviate extrapolation for all tested DL models. Our work shows that the DL models are promising tools for estimating SWE, and sufficiently capture relevant physical relationships to make them useful for spatial and temporal extrapolation of SWE values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explainable Neural Architecture Search (XNAS)

Code for the paper Learning Interpretable Models Through Multi-Objective Neural Architecture Search by Zachariah Carmichael, Tim Moon, and Sam Ade Jacobs. Monumental advances in deep learning have led to unprecedented achievements across a multitude of domains. While the performance of deep neural networks is indubitable, the architectural design and interpretability of such models are nontrivial. Research has been introduced to automate the design of neural network architectures through neural architecture search (NAS). Recent progress has made these methods more pragmatic by exploiting distributed computation and novel optimization algorithms. However, there is little work in optimizing architectures for interpretability. To this end, we propose a multiobjective distributed NAS framework that optimizes for both task performance and introspection. We leverage the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) and explainable AI (XAI) techniques to reward architectures that can be better comprehended by humans. The framework is evaluated on several image classification datasets. We demonstrate that jointly optimizing for introspection ability and task error leads to more disentangled architectures that perform within tolerable error.

Carmichael, ZachariahJ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explaining machine-learning models for gamma-ray detection and identification

As more complex predictive models are used for gamma-ray spectral analysis, methods are needed to probe and understand their predictions and behavior. Recent work has begun to bring the latest techniques from the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) into the applications of gamma-ray spectroscopy, including the introduction of gradient-based methods like saliency mapping and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), and black box methods like Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). In addition, new sources of synthetic radiological data are becoming available, and these new data sets present opportunities to train models using more data than ever before. In this work, we use a neural network model trained on synthetic NaI(Tl) urban search data to compare some of these explanation methods and identify modifications that need to be applied to adapt the methods to gamma-ray spectral data. We find that the black box methods LIME and SHAP are especially accurate in their results, and recommend SHAP since it requires little hyperparameter tuning. We also propose and demonstrate a technique for generating counterfactual explanations using orthogonal projections of LIME and SHAP explanations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to extend and understand the sources and limits of water cycle predictability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales in the Earth system

This white paper provides initial insight on how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including interpretability and explainable AI (XAI) methods, can be leveraged to glean insight from complex data for a paradigm-changing improvement in Earth system predictability on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. The application of AI to extend and improve predictability, in combination with causal inference and uncertainty quantification, could lead to a transformative understanding of the integrative water cycle and associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning to Operations Research

This report examines the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) on operations research, private industry, and government sectors, highlighting their applications in automating processes, enhancing decision-making, and optimizing complex systems. AI/ML technologies have revolutionized industries through predictive maintenance, supply chain optimization, and autonomous systems, while also advancing public safety and defense operations. However, challenges such as data integrity, model transparency, and the need for human oversight persist, particularly in high-consequence environments. The report emphasizes the critical role of explainable AI (XAI) and human-computer interaction models like Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) and Human-on-the-Loop (HOTL) in fostering trust and accountability. Balancing automation with ethical responsibility and transparency is essential for the continued successful integration of AI/ML into operational and strategic decision-making frameworks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

TCR-H: explainable machine learning prediction of T-cell receptor epitope binding on unseen datasets

Artificial-intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) approaches to predicting T-cell receptor (TCR)-epitope specificity achieve high performance metrics on test datasets which include sequences that are also part of the training set but fail to generalize to test sets consisting of epitopes and TCRs that are absent from the training set, i.e., are ‘unseen’ during training of the ML model. We present TCR-H, a supervised classification Support Vector Machines model using physicochemical features trained on the largest dataset available to date using only experimentally validated non-binders as negative datapoints. TCR-H exhibits an area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic (AUC of ROC) of 0.87 for epitope ‘hard splitting’ (i.e., on test sets with all epitopes unseen during ML training), 0.92 for TCR hard splitting and 0.89 for ‘strict splitting’ in which neither the epitopes nor the TCRs in the test set are seen in the training data. Furthermore, we employ the SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) eXplainable AI (XAI) method for post hoc interrogation to interpret the models trained with different hard splits, shedding light on the key physiochemical features driving model predictions. TCR-H thus represents a significant step towards general applicability and explainability of epitope:TCR specificity prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An MLCommons Scientific Benchmarks Ontology

Scientific machine learning research spans diverse domains and data modalities, yet existing benchmark efforts remain siloed and lack standardization. This makes novel and transformative applications of machine learning to critical scientific use-cases more fragmented and less clear in pathways to impact. This paper introduces an ontology for scientific benchmarking developed through a unified, community-driven effort that extends the MLCommons ecosystem to cover physics, chemistry, materials science, biology, climate science, and more. Building on prior initiatives such as XAI-BENCH, FastML Science Benchmarks, PDEBench, and the SciMLBench framework, our effort consolidates a large set of disparate benchmarks and frameworks into a single taxonomy of scientific, application, and system-level benchmarks. New benchmarks can be added through an open submission workflow coordinated by the MLCommons Science Working Group and evaluated against a six-category rating rubric that promotes and identifies high-quality benchmarks, enabling stakeholders to select benchmarks that meet their specific needs. The architecture is extensible, supporting future scientific and AI/ML motifs, and we discuss methods for identifying emerging computing patterns for unique scientific workloads. The MLCommons Science Benchmarks Ontology provides a standardized, scalable foundation for reproducible, cross-domain benchmarking in scientific machine learning. A companion webpage for this work has also been developed as the effort evolves: https://mlcommons-science.github.io/benchmark/

Hawks, Ben [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157000288)↗
DOE OSTI2025

33 Unresolved Questions in Nanoscience and Nanotechnology

Significant advances in science and engineering often emerge at the intersections of disciplines. Nanoscience and nanotechnology are inherently interdisciplinary, uniting researchers from chemistry, physics, biology, medicine, materials science, and engineering. This convergence has fostered novel ways of thinking and enabled the development of materials, tools, and technologies that have transformed both basic and applied research, as well as how we address critical societal challenges. In this Nano Focus, we pose and explore 33 questions whose answers could profoundly impact fields such as energy, electronics, the environment, optics, and medicine. These questions highlight the need for deeper foundational understanding, improved tools and techniques, and innovative applications─each with significant societal relevance. Together, they represent a global call-to-action for the scientific community.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

L-VISP: LSTM Visualization for Interpretable Symptom Prediction in Patient Cohorts

Symptom modelling in head and neck cancer is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous patient data, leading to an interest in deep learning approaches. Although Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown great results in patient risk prediction, their low interpretability requires data modellers to collaborate with clinical experts to validate the results. We present L-VISP, a human–machine solution that uses visual analytics for LSTM modelling in clinical research. L-VISP uses custom visual encodings to make multiple LSTM variants interpretable, supporting a full range of analysis, from understanding model operations and evaluating performance to interpreting results in a clinical context. We evaluate L-VISP with data modellers and a clinical oncologist and present the takeaways from this multidisciplinary collaboration.

LSTM modeling↗