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2016 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. You can find the report, a presentation, and a data file on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available in the Data Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s report include: -Wind power additions continued at a rapid clip in 2016: $13 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2016. In 2016, wind energy contributed 5.6% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and 29% to 37% in three of those states—Iowa, South Dakota, and Kansas. -Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths, in particular, have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance. For example, the average 2016 capacity factor among projects built in 2014 and 2015 was 42.6%, compared to an average of 32.1% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 25.4% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. -Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen from their highs in 2008, to $800–$1,100/kW. Overall, the average installed cost of wind projects in 2016 was $1,590/kW, down $780/kW from the peak in 2009 and 2010. -Wind energy prices remain low: After topping out at nearly 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to around 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country (such as Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma). These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -The supply chain continued to adjust to swings in domestic demand for wind equipment: Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 101,000 full-time workers at the end of 2016. For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (65-80%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the turbine. -Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, though declining, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions averaging more than 9,000 MW/year from 2017 to 2020.

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2017 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: -Wind power capacity additions continued at a rapid pace in 2017: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2017. In 2017, wind energy contributed 6.3% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in four of those states—Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. -Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers appear to be on the horizon. The average 2017 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2016 was 42%, compared to an average of 31.5% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 23.5% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. -Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen from their highs in 2008 to $750–$950/kW. Overall, the average installed cost of wind projects in 2017 was $1,610/kW, down $795/kW from the peak in 2009 and 2010. -Wind energy prices remain low: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to around 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country (such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas). These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 105,000 full-time workers at the end of 2017. For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (70-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the turbine. -Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 8,000 to 11,000 MW/year from 2018 to 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

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2018 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: ~Wind power capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2018. In 2018, wind energy contributed 6.5% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in three of those states—Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma. 232 gigawatts of wind are seeking transmission interconnection, 2% of which represents proposed wind plants paired with storage. ~Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers are on the horizon. The average 2018 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2017 was 42%, compared to an average of 31% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 24% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen to $700–$900/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2018 was $1,470/kW, down 40 percent since the peak in 2009 and 2010. ~Wind energy prices are at historical lows: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to below 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Solar PPA prices have declined precipitously, pressuring wind’s competitive position. ~The grid-system value of wind has declined over the last decade, but rebounded over the last two years. The value of wind in wholesale power markets is impacted by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind in 2018 was the lowest in the Southwest Power Pool and Texas (average of $17/MWh and $18/MWh, respectively) whereas the highest-value market was New England (at $41/MWh). Wind energy prices are generally competitive with these value estimates. ~The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (75-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the nacelle. Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 114,000 full-time workers at the end of 2018. ~Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 9,000-12,000 MW in 2019 and 11,000-15,000 in 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

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Nonsteady Load Responses to Mountain-Generated Turbulence Eddies on the DOE 1.5 MW Wind Turbine at the National Wind Technology Center

Field data collected from the NREL/GE 1.5MW wind turbine and met tower at the NREL Wind Technology Center near Boulder, Colorado from June-October 2018 were analyzed to quantify the impacts of turbulence eddies on the load responses measured from sensors on the main shaft, blade and tower. The passage of individual mountain-generated eddies from the met tower to the wind turbine were critically determined by correlating the optimal time shifts in signal between met tower and nacelle anemometers with mean advection time. Loading responses from mountain eddy passage were compared with atmospheric eddies from the north/south, unimpeded by the mountains, and found to be similar. Whereas time variations in torque were highly correlated with time changes in horizontal eddy velocity, the out-of-plane bending moments on the main shaft (directly forcing the main bearing) were uncorrelated with horizontal eddy velocity. This result is consistent with a previous LES study indicating that the main bearing is forced by asymmetrical interactions between the rotor and turbulence eddies, while power fluctuations respond primarily to advective eddy velocity. Surprisingly, the nacelle anemometer produced statistics very similar to the met tower.

ENGINEERING,WIND ENERGY↗

Support of the Massachusetts — NREL Wind Technology Testing Center (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

Under the shared-resources CRADA agreement, NREL will collaborate with the Massachusetts Technology Park Corporation, d/b/a Massachusetts Technology Collaborative (MTC), in its efforts to design, construct, and operate the Massachusetts-NREL Wind Technology Testing Center (WTTC), which is an advanced blade testing facility capable of testing blades up to at least 70 meters in length. The WTTC building will be owned and the facility operated by the MTC. In the CRADA, NREL agrees to provide certain capital equipment and certain NREL employees at the WTTC facility for training, commissioning, and continued technical assistance. In addition, NREL will provide one or more Laboratory staff to serve on any WTTC advisory committee, a no-cost license of the NREL blade-resonance fatigue testing technology (NREL Testing IP) and training to MA staff at the NREL blade test facilities in Colorado. MTC will provide all other resources necessary to design, construct, and operate the WTTC.

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IEA Wind TCP Task 26–Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States: 2008-2016

The International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind TCP) Task 26 - The Cost of Wind Energy represents an international collaboration dedicated to exploring the past, present, and future cost of wind energy. The countries that are currently represented by participating organizations in IEA Wind TCP Task 26 included in this report are Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States. This report discusses trends from 2008 through 2016 that affected the cost of land-based wind energy in each country. The cost of wind energy during this period is compared with the market value of wind energy in the respective electricity market for each country. This report builds from previous analysis conducted since the inception of Task 26 in 2009. Schwabe et al. (2011) explored differences in the cost of wind energy in 2008 among countries participating in Task 26 at that time. Vitina et al. (2015) presented turbine- and project-level trends in the wind industry from 2008 to 2012, including wind project size, turbine size, specific power and hub height, project performance, investment costs, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and project financing. These inputs are used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), a widely recognized metric for understanding how technology performance, capital investment, operations, and financing impact the life cycle cost of building and operating a wind project. Both prior reports - as well as this report - used this metric to estimate the cost of wind energy.

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Fixed Point Raptor Migration Survey at the National Wind Technology Center: April 2010

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts a variety of research projects concerning wind energy research at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) located approximately 8 miles south of Boulder, Colorado, in northern Jefferson County. The NWTC provides a location with consistent winds and high speed gusts suitable for testing wind turbine technologies. Currently the NWTC houses a variety of structures on the 123 hectare (310 acre) site, including 13 operating turbines and 24 meteorological (met) towers. This report details the results of a migratory raptor field survey conducted at the NWTC during the month of April, 2010 as part of the larger study of site use by birds, and the site's effects on birds and bats.

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Vegetation and Wildlife Surveys at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, National Wind Technology Center: July 2010-May 2011

This year-long wildlife and vegetation study was conducted to update the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) vegetation and wildlife baseline conditions. These updated baseline conditions will be used to support future National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analyses. NWTC is a laboratory center of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. The current effort involved conducting four seasons of vegetation and wildlife surveys beginning in July 2010 and ending in May 2011. This report presents the results of these surveys. Concurrent avian monitoring studies by Tetra Tech, Inc. were conducted beginning January 2010 to September 2011. The results of these surveys are presented in a separate report. Prior to the current study, Plantae (2000) completed a site characterization of vegetation communities and noxious weeds, Monahan (1996) conducted a raptor study, and Schmidt et al. (2003) conducted a bird and bat use and fatality study. More recently, Walsh conducted a bat study in 2010.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Digital Simulation of Inertial Response with Hardware-in-the-Loop Implementation on the CART3 Wind Turbine at the National Wind Technology Center

With increasing penetrations of wind power on electric grids, the stability and reliability of interconnected power systems may be impacted. In some countries that have developed renewable energy sources and systems, grid codes have been revised to require wind power plants (WPPs) to provide ancillary services to support the power system frequency in case of severe grid events. To do this, wind turbine generators (WTGs) should be deloaded to reserve a certain amount of active power for primary frequency response; however, deloading curtails annual energy production, and the market for this type of service needs to be further developed. In this report, we focus on the temporary frequency support provided by WTGs through inertial response. WTGs have potential to provide inertial response, but appropriate control methods should be implemented. With the implemented inertial control methods, wind turbines are capable of increasing their active power output by releasing some of their stored kinetic energy when a frequency excursion occurs. Active power can be temporarily boosted above the maximum power points, after which the rotor speed decelerates, and subsequently an active power output reduction restores the kinetic energy. In this report, we develop two types of models for wind power systems: the first is common, based on the wind power aerodynamic equation, and the power coefficient can be regressed using nonlinear functions; the second is much more complicated, wherein the wind turbine system is modeled using the Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence Modeling (FAST) tool with several degrees of freedoms. A nine-bus test power system is built in Simulink and the Real-Time Digital Simulator, respectively, which are used to evaluate the frequency support performance of the WPPs. We implement two distinct types of inertial control methods in the modeled wind turbines: frequency-based inertial control (FBIC) and stepwise inertial control (SIC). We compare the performances of the two methods in terms of their frequency nadirs, rates of change of frequency, and recovery times. We conclude the results under various wind speeds and penetration cases, which provide insight into designing the inertial response of WTGs. Further, we discuss the impact of the parameters on the performance of the inertial control methods. We evaluate both the scaling factors for the FBIC method and the slope values for the TLIC methods. The simulation work shows the characteristics of different inertial responses compared to conventional synchronous generators. Based on the simulation results, we modify, improve, and test the inertial control methods under a more realistic wind turbine model based on FAST. We then validate the inertial responses under highly turbulent wind conditions generated by TurbSim, and we examine their influences on the turbine mechanical components. The extensive simulation proves the effectiveness of the proposed inertial control methods as well as the nine-bus test power system. We then reconsider the parameters. We rebuild the same test power system using Real time Simulator Computer Aided Design (RSCAD), and we implement the inertial control methods in the real Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART3), which is prepared for the hardware-in-the-loop field-test simulation. After the setups for the hardware and software hybrid simulation platform are complete, the inertial response is further tested on a real wind turbine for the first time, in which CART3 release the controlled inertial response against the emulated frequency excursion, provided by the real-time simulated power system test bed in RTDS.

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Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

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National Wind Technology Center-Characterization of Atmospheric Conditions

Data provided by the instrumentation located at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) is compiled below for the purposes of characterizing the atmospheric operating conditions at the National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) wind site. Conditions are presented conditioned on month of the year to show seasonal variation, and based on characteristic quantities seen in the atmospheric flow including, bulk wind speed, direction, and atmospheric stability. All data reported and analyzed in the following document were collected from instrumentation mounted on the 135 m-tall masts erected at the NWTC near Boulder, Colorado. Each of the two met-masts (named M4 and M5) were sited specifically to measure the inflow wind to several of the utility-scale turbines at the NWTC. The construction, operation, and maintenance of the masts has been supported since their commissioning in 2011 by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind and Water Power Program. Data from the masts are publicly available for download or basic visualization, hosted on NREL's website (https://nwtc.nrel.gov/135mData). Data from the masts have been used in the past for a wide range of projects including wind turbine power performance measurements, high fidelity model development and validation, and atmospheric science research. An interactive visualization platform has been developed on NREL's Open Energy Information platform and can be used to reproduce many of the graphics included in the current work. This report describes in detail the atmospheric conditions recorded by M5, the inflow mast for the DOE-owned GE 1.5 MW wind turbine. The report focuses on data recorded from August 2012 to May 2018 and includes: an introduction to the wind climate at the NWTC; a physical description of the met masts; a review of installed instrumentation; and data collection, processing, and quality control methods. In addition to a concise description of the instrumentation from the met masts and the data channels they provide, this report characterizes the behavior of the atmospheric resource first in a cumulative sense, discussing mainly the distributions wind speeds, flow directions and thermodynamic properties at several heights along the towers. Periodicity in atmospheric conditions is then detailed through analysis of diurnal and annual cycles of the data streams. Periods of both low turbulence and extreme atmospheric events that are of interest in terms of wind turbine operation and wind energy research are detailed in the final chapter of this report. Low turbulence events are somewhat rare at the NWTC and are of interest from the perspective of validating the operation of new wind turbine and blade designs. Similarly, the NTWC is known for a relatively higher rate of occurrence of extreme weather events.

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2012 Wind Technologies Market Report

An annual report on the wind energy industry including key statistics, economic data, installation, capacity, and generation statistics, and more.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Avian Monitoring and Mortality Report at the National Wind Technology Center: January 2010 - February 2011

Tetra Tech EC, Inc. (Tetra Tech) conducted an avian monitoring and bird and bat mortality surveys at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) for NREL in 2010-2011. The purpose of the study was to quantify local avian use in the NWTC and vicinity and to estimate potential impacts to avian and bat species associated with the wind turbines and associated meteorological (met) towers at NWTC. Several different types of wind turbines are present on the NWTC with different capacities for energy production (1 kilowatt-3 megawatts [MW]; varying hub heights and turbine blade lengths) and met towers (guyed and unguyed) that vary in height (9.1-135 meters [m]). In a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) review of three large turbine installations, DOE requested monitoring of avian and bat mortality be conducted, so that mitigation measures could be developed if needed.

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2013 Wind Technologies Market Report

This report describes the status of the U.S. wind energy industry market in 2013, its trends, performance, market drivers and future outlook. Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States were modest in 2013, but all signals point to more-robust growth in 2014 and 2015. With the industry’s primary federal support—the production tax credit (PTC)—only available for projects that had begun construction by the end of 2013, the next couple years will see those projects commissioned. Near-term wind additions will also be driven by recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond 2015 are uncertain. The PTC has expired, and its renewal remains in question. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on industry growth expectations. These trends, in combination with increasingly global supply chains, continue to impact domestic manufacturing of wind equipment. What they mean for wind power additions through the end of the decade and beyond will be dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions. At the same time, recent declines in wind energy costs and prices and the potential for continued technological advancements have boosted future growth prospects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wildlife and Vegetation Monitoring Report at the National Wind Technology Center

As part of the five-year monitoring update of its natural resources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) contracted with ERO Resources Corporation (ERO) to conduct avian, small mammal, bat, carnivore, big game, amphibian, and vegetation surveys at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). This update to the baseline survey conducted in 2010-2011 will be used to evaluate and support National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analyses and assist in the management of natural resources at NWTC. NWTC is located on the boundary of Boulder and Jefferson Counties in Colorado (project area) and is part of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). NWTC is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and Testing of a Scaled Demonstrator Turbine at the National Wind Technology Center: Preprint

This paper discusses the design, manufacturing, and planned testing of a scaled demonstrator turbine as part of the Segmented Ultralight Morphing Rotor (SUMR) project funded by the Advanced Project Research Agency - Energy (ARPA-E). The scaled demonstrator (SUMR-D) is based off of a downwind, 13.2 MW SUMR design. This scaled rotor will be tested on the CART2 turbine at the National Wind Technology Center to verify the scaling methodology and planned control scheme. The design was done in an iterative fashion among six teams focused on aerodynamics, structures, and controls. This process included extensive load analysis, modification for manufacturability, adaptations required for testing on the CART2, and ground proof loading. The details of this process are presented here, concluding with planned testing and expectations of performance.

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Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off at the NREL National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-14-571 Final Report)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to support work under US DOE DE-EE-0006399, “Build and Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off Under Realistic Open-Ocean Conditions.” Work will include a review of their design for a novel wave energy direct drive generator. After review, the system will be prototyped and tested in the NREL National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) 5MW dynamometer and data will be recorded and analyzed. Conclusions from data analysis will be used to improve the design prior to completing a version of the system for ocean deployment. Additionally, NREL will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to quantify the system levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and analyze the system in agreement with US DOE System Performance Advancement (SPA) goals 1 and 2.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗