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Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavordsky, Bradley

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavodsky, Bradley

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

fire weather

Overview of Space Weather Impacts and NASA Space Weather Center Services and Products

The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.

Zheng, Y.

Are the Brighter Rocks on Bennu Products of Recent Mechanical Weathering, and Therefore Less Space-Weathered?

Our hypothesis is that the higher-albedo rocks on the surface of Bennu are products of thermal/mechanical weathering. If this suggestion is correct, then the higher albedo (~7–15%) of some rocks relative to the average background on Bennu (~4.5%) could be explained by their relatively fresh surfaces. Older rocks on Bennu would then be the darkest rocks— those that have experienced the most space weathering over time due to exposure to the space environment. Thermal/mechanical weathering (cracking of rocks) is a candidate mechanism for the particle ejection events observed to occur with regular frequency from the asteroid surface.

Keller, Lindsay P.

Space Weathering of Genesis Mission Solar-wind Collectors with Inferences for Weathering on Airless Bodies

Samples from the Genesis Solar Wind Sample Return (NASA Discovery 5) are a unique opportunity to study the initial stages of space weathering, i.e., the physical and chemical effects of solar-wind irradiation. Arrays of collectors containing multiple materials were each exposed to a different solar-wind regime (fast, slow, bulk, or coronal mass ejection) at the L1 point for long durations (years). Materials exposed to the solar wind included metals, semiconductors, and insulators. Although the time of exposure was obviously short relative to samples having extraterrestrial origins, optical properties, surface chemical properties, and matrix structure have changed in many collectors due to exposure to solar wind. The thickness of amorphous zones, where present, appears to correspond with the depth of the peak of the solar-wind H distribution in each regime. Damage from high-energy particles was negligible because the collectors were 700 μm or less in thickness and shielded from the back by the spacecraft. Micrometeorite impacts and sputtering were also negligible because of the short exposure times. Our current results are preliminary: We hope future workers will extend this study both to support Genesis characterization efforts and to further understand space-weathering processes on a geologic timescale.

space weathering

Chemical weathering and diagenesis of a cold desert soil from Wright Valley, Antarctica - An analog of Martian weathering processes

Weathering, diagenesis, and chemical alteration of a soil profile from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica are investigated as an analog to soil development within the Martian regolith. Soil samples from a soil pit one meter deep on Prospect Mesa, Wright Valley, are examined for their major element concentrations, water-soluble cations and anions, carbon, sulfur, and water concentrations, and related petrographic characteristics of weathering in a cold, dry environment. A petrographic study of the samples suggests that most silicate mineral and lithic fragments exhibit some degree of alteration. Chemical alteration occurs both in samples above and within the permanently frozen zone. The concentrations of water-soluble cations, for example, Na(+), K(+), Ca(2+), and anions, Cl(-), SO4(2-), NO3(-), are found to decrease significantly from the surface to the permanently frozen zone, suggesting a major movement of water-soluble species. It is also found that enrichments in secondary mineral abundances correlate with the water soluble ion concentrations. The formation of zeolites is seen throughout the soil column; these, it is thought, may be reservoirs for volatile storage within the regolith.

Gibson, E. K.

Chemical Weathering of Soils from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: a Terrestrial Analog of Martian Weathering Processes

Martian soil subjected to chemical weathering processes could contain the following likely constituents: (1) fresh primary silicate material; (2) partially altered primary silicates; (3) secondary minerals, possibly including clay minerals, evaporites, carbonates, sulfates, hydrates, and zeolites; and (4) altered volcanic glass or impact glass. The soil may also include palogonite and other alteration products and secondary minerals. It is unlikely therefore that an equilibrium assemblage of minerals would be present. From the detailed study of the soils from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, it is obvious that the complex processes in operation produce major changes in the parent materials, depending upon where the constituents reside and the degree to which weathering and diagenesis operates. It is clear that natural near surface environments, even in very cold and dry regions, may produce extremely complex soils. Extreme caution must be taken when interpreting the results and drawing conclusions, especially about possible processes operating in regoliths in cold, arid environments similar to those of the Dry Valleys or Mars.

Gibson, E. K., Jr.

Science Coordination in Support of the US Weather Research Program Office of the Lead Scientist (OLS) and for Coordination with the World Weather Research (WMO) Program

This document is the final report of the work of the Office of the Lead Scientist (OLS) of the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and for Coordination of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP). The proposal was for a continuation of the duties and responsibilities described in the proposal of 7 October, 1993 to NSF and NOAA associated with the USWRP Lead Scientist then referred to as the Chief Scientist. The activities of the Office of the Lead Scientist (OLS) ended on January 31, 2005 and this report describes the activities undertaken by the OLS from February 1, 2004 until January 3 1, 2005. The OLS activities were under the cosponsorship of the agencies that are members of the Interagency Working Group (IWG) of the US WRP currently: NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOD. The scope of the work described includes activities that were necessary to develop, facilitate and implement the research objectives of the USWRP consistent with the overall program goals and specific agency objectives. It included liaison with and promotion of WMO/WWW activities that were consistent with and beneficial to the USWRP programs and objectives. Funds covered several broad categories of activity including meetings convened by the Lead Scientist, OLS travel, partial salary and benefits support, publications, hard-copy dissemination of reports and program announcements and the development and maintenance of the USWRP website. In addition to funding covered by this grant, NCAR program funds provided co-sponsorship of half the salary and benefits resources of the USWRP Lead Scientist (.25 FTE) and the WWRP Chairman/Liaison (.167 FTE). Also covered by the grant were partial salaries for the Science Coordinator for the hurricane portion of the program and partial salary for a THORPEX coordinator.

Gall, Robert

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroid Space Weathering Studies

Understanding the composition of Mercury's crust is key to comprehending the formation of the planet. The regolith, derived from the crustal bedrock, has been altered via a set of space weathering processes. These processes are the same set of mechanisms that work to form Mercury's exosphere, and are moderated by the local space environment and the presence of an intrinsic planetary magnetic field. The alterations need to be understood in order to determine the initial crustal compositions. The complex interrelationships between Mercury's exospheric processes, the space environment, and surface composition are examined and reviewed. The processes are examined in the context of our understanding of these same processes on the lunar and asteroid regoliths. Keywords: Mercury (planet) Space weathering Surface processes Exosphere Surface composition Space environment 3

Dominque, Deborah L.

Solving The Space Weather Problem: A 15+ Year Roadmap to Revolutionize Space Weather Research, Protect NASA Space Assets, and Enable Robust Operations

The White Paper (WP) describes a roadmap to address the Space Weather (SpWx) problem. It presents a strategic vision of how a community-wide effort could be organized and implemented to enable transformative advancement in SpWx research and ultimately, in applications. We envision a ‘system-of-systems’—an integrated web of SpWx stations and state-ofthe-art modeling facilities to enable a transformative advance in SpWx nowcasting and forecasting (Figure 1). The Space Weather Aggregated Network of Systems (SWANS) will enable space situational awareness for end-users invested in spaceflight operations, infrastructure risk mitigation, and future human endeavors in space exploration while profoundly transforming Heliophysics research.

A Vourrlidas

Designing systems to satisfy their users - The coming changes in aviation weather and the development of a central weather processor

Attention is given to the development history of the Central Weather Processor (CWP) program of the Federal Aviation Administration. The CWP will interface with high speed digital communications links, accept data and information products from new sources, generate data processing products, and provide meteorologists with the capability to automate data retrieval and dissemination. The CWP's users are operational (air traffic controllers, meteorologists and pilots), institutional (logistics, maintenance, testing and evaluation personnel), and administrative.

Bush, M. W.

Under the Weather: Space Weather. The Magnetic Field of the Heliosphere

Normally, only people in the far north can enjoy the dancing beauty of the aurora borealis; however, an intense collision of charged solar particles with the Earth's magnetic field can magnify the Northern Lights so much that they are visible in the southern United States. Behind the light show lies enough flux of energetic particles carried by solar wind to render our planet uninhabitable. The Earth's magnetic field, also known as the magnetosphere, is the only thing that shields us from the Sun. Even the magnetosphere cannot fully guard us from the wrath of the Sun. In March 1989, a powerful solar flare hit Earth with such energy that it burned out transformers in Quebec's electrical grid, plunging Quebec and the eastern United States into darkness for more than 9 hours. Northern lights and energy grid overloads are not the only ways that a solar wind can affect us. A solar storm in July 1999 interrupted radio broadcasts. Solar activity can disorient radars and satellite sensors, break up cell phone connections, and threaten the safety of astronauts. A large bombardment of solar particles can even reduce the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), the study of magnetic fields in magnetized plasmas, can help scientists predict, and therefore prepare for, the harmful side effects of solar weather in the magnetosphere.

Roberts, Aaron

Decision-Making in Flight with Different Convective Weather Information Sources: Preliminary Results from the Langley CoWS Experiment (COnvective Weather Sources)

This viewgraph presentation provides information on an airborne experiment designed to test the decision making of pilots receiving different sources of meteorological data. The presentation covers the equipment used in the COnvective Weather Sources (CoWS) Experiment), including the information system and display devices available to some of the subjects. It also describes the experiment, which featured teams of general aviation pilots, who were onboard but did not actually fly the aircraft used in the experiment. The presentation includes the results of a survey of the subjects' confidence.

Chamberlain, Jim

Developing Dual Polarization Applications For 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) New Weather Radar: A Cooperative Project With The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC)

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar includes dual polarization capability, which has not been available to 45 WS previously. The 45 WS has teamed with NSSTC with funding from NASA Marshall Spaceflight Flight Center to improve their use of this new dual polarization capability when it is implemented operationally. The project goals include developing a temperature profile adaptive scan strategy, developing training materials, and developing forecast techniques and tools using dual polarization products. The temperature profile adaptive scan strategy will provide the scan angles that provide the optimal compromise between volume scan rate, vertical resolution, phenomena detection, data quality, and reduced cone-of-silence for the 45 WS mission. The mission requirements include outstanding detection of low level boundaries for thunderstorm prediction, excellent vertical resolution in the atmosphere electrification layer between 0 C and -20 C for lightning forecasting and Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, good detection of anvil clouds for Lightning Launch Commit Criteria evaluation, reduced cone-of-silence, fast volume scans, and many samples per pulse for good data quality. The training materials will emphasize the appropriate applications most important to the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset and cessation of lightning, forecasting convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. The training materials will focus on annotated radar imagery based on products available to the 45 WS. Other examples will include time sequenced radar products without annotation to simulate radar operations. This will reinforce the forecast concepts and also allow testing of the forecasters. The new dual polarization techniques and tools will focus on the appropriate applications for the 45 WS mission. These include forecasting the onset of lightning, the cessation of lightning, convective winds, and hopefully the inference of electrical fields in clouds. This presentation will report on the results achieved so far in the project.

Roeder, W.P.