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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Flow Visualization of Liquid Hydrogen Line Chilldown Tests

We present experimental measurements of wall and fluid temperature during chill-down tests of a warm cryogenic line with liquid hydrogen. Synchronized video and fluid temperature measurements are used to interpret stream temperature profiles versus time. When cold liquid hydrogen starts to flow into the warm line, a sequence of flow regimes, spanning from all-vapor at the outset to bubbly with continuum liquid at the end can be observed at a location far downstream of the cold inlet. In this paper we propose interpretations to the observed flow regimes and fluid temperature histories for two chilldown methods, viz. trickle (i.e. continuous) flow and pulse flow. Calculations of heat flux from the wall to the fluid versus wall temperature indicate the presence of the transition/nucleate boiling regimes only. The present tests, run at typical Reynolds numbers of approx O(10 (exp 5)), are in sharp contrast to similar tests conducted at lower Reynolds numbers where a well-defined film boiling region is observed.

Line chill down↗
NASA NTRS2019

Oro-Nasal Mask Versus Two-Way Non-Rebreathing Valves for Maximal Aerobic Capacity Testing in Astronauts

Astronauts complete maximal aerobic capacity (VO2pk) testing as part of their annual fitness assessment (AFA) as well as several times once assigned to an International Space Station mission. Historically, the 2-Way T-Shape Non-Rebreathing valve with a mouthpiece and nose clip (“Mouthpiece”) has been used in these tests. The testing procedure was updated to use the oro-nasal mask (“Mask”) for the AFA starting in June 2017. Astronauts who used the mask during their AFA requested it be certified to be used for all mission associated tests. Considering the criticality of the data and the schedule constraints of astronauts, it is imperative that the requested hardware change provide data with equivalent reliability and repeatability as provided by the mouthpiece. PURPOSE: To assess the reliability and validity of mask vs. mouthpiece by comparing submaximal and VO2pkdata within subjects (approximately 1 year apart). METHODS: Each of 17 active astronauts completed a VO (sub 2pk) test with the mouthpiece (first) and the mask (second) for their AFA. The VO (sub 2pk) test was conducted on a cycle ergometer with a metabolic cart. The nominal protocol started with a 3-minute warm-up at 50 Watts (W) and increased 25W every minute until volitional fatigue (Light: 45W start; 15W increase). The VO (sub 2pk)s were compared between tests and the expected day-to-day variation (plus or minus 5 percent) was used as the threshold for determining agreement between tests. Submaximal values were plotted and evaluated visually for deviations between mask and mouthpiece. RESULTS: VO (sub 2pk) values were more than 5 percent different, despite similar test times, between mouthpiece and mask in 6 of 17 comparisons, 3 of which were higher with the mask (9.0 plus or minus 5.9 percent) while 3 were lower (minus10.8 plus or minus 2.0 percent) with the mask. The submaximal data did not indicate a leak in either apparatus during these tests. An Astronaut Strength & Conditioning Rehabilitation specialist confirmed that the measured differences in VO (sub 2pk) of these 6 astronauts was consistent with observed changes in exercise habits during the year that separated the two tests. CONCLUSION: After being presented with the results of this data mining effort the mask was accepted for use in all tests, excepting that, if a leak is detected without resolve, the test will be repeated (if schedule allows) and remaining tests will be completed with the mouthpiece.

Buxton, R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Wildfire Adaptation in the Russian Arctic: A Systematic Policy Review

A scientific consensus acknowledges that climate change has increased wildfire activity in the Russian Arctic, a trend projected to continue in response to further warming. Regional governments across Russia have started to design and develop adaptation policies and plans (i.e. outputs) to this end. Our comprehensive understanding on the state of wildfire adaptation in policy is limited. In this article we systematically review policies and plans developed to adapt to wildfires in the Russian Arctic. Using systematic approaches, we identify 12 wildfire adaptation outputs adopted between 2008 and 2020. Our findings indicate that wildfire adaptation outputs are aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires and improve wildland fire response, implemented through legislative and regulatory mechanisms, developed at the regional level, adopted in response to national mandates, and mainstreamed into existing forest management policies. Although there is evidence of wildfire adaptation planning occurring in the Russian Arctic, we find that the nature and extent of wildfire adaptation outputs are not sufficient to address the seriousness and severity of climate change, with key shortcomings found in relation to the scientific, human, and management characteristics. We argue that expanding the profile of climate change research in the Russian Arctic and improving the dialogue among researchers, local and Indigenous peoples, and decision-makers are critical for providing useful recommendations for policy makers to accelerate wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗
NASA NTRS2004

Miniature Loop Heat Pipe (MLHP) Thermal Management System

The MLHP Thermal Management System consists of a loop heat pipe (LHP) with multiple evaporators and condensers, thermal electrical coolers, and deployable radiators coated with variable emittance coatings (VECs). All components are miniaturized. It retains all the performance characteristics of state-of-the-art LHPs and offers additional advantages to enhance the functionality, versatility, and reliability of the system, including flexible locations of instruments and radiators, a single interface temperature for multiple instruments, cooling the on instruments and warming the off instruments simultaneously, improving. start-up success, maintaining a constant LHP operating temperature over a wide range of instrument powers, effecting automatic thermal switching and thermal diode actions, and reducing supplemental heater powers. It can fully achieve low mass, low power and compactness necessary for future small spacecraft. Potential applications of the MLHP thermal technology for future missions include: 1) Magnetospheric Constellation; 2) Solar Sentinels; 3) Mars Science Laboratory; 4) Mars Scouts; 5) Mars Telecom Orbiter; 6) Space Interferometry Mission; 7) Laser Interferometer Space Antenna; 8) Jupiter Icy Moon Orbiter; 9) Terrestrial Planet Finder; 10) Single Aperture Far-Infrared Observatory, and 11) Exploration Missions. The MLHP Thermal Management System combines the operating features of a variable conductance heat pipe, a thermal switch, a thermal diode, and a state-of-the-art LHP into a single integrated thermal system. It offers many advantages over conventional thermal control techniques, and can be a technology enabler for future space missions. Successful flight validation will bring the benefits of MLHP technology to the small satellite arena and will have cross-cutting applications to both Space Science and Earth Science Enterprises.

Ku, Jentung↗
NASA NTRS2012

Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record started. Also, the SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be anomalously high in 2007 when the perennial ice cover declined dramatically to its lowest extent. In the Antarctic, surface temperature trends are much more moderate with the most positive trends occurring in the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of Western Antarctica while some cooling are observed in the Antarctic Plateau and the Ross Sea. The trends in SST in the region is similar to global averages but precipitation from more evaporation may have a key role in the spatial distribution of surface temperature in the ice covered region

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Combustion Stability Characteristics of the Project Morpheus Liquid Oxygen / Liquid Methane Main Engine

The project Morpheus liquid oxygen (LOX) / liquid methane (LCH4) main engine is a Johnson Space Center (JSC) designed ~5,000 lbf-thrust, 4:1 throttling, pressure-fed cryogenic engine using an impinging element injector design. The engine met or exceeded all performance requirements without experiencing any in- ight failures, but the engine exhibited acoustic-coupled combustion instabilities during sea-level ground-based testing. First tangential (1T), rst radial (1R), 1T1R, and higher order modes were triggered by conditions during the Morpheus vehicle derived low chamber pressure startup sequence. The instability was never observed to initiate during mainstage, even at low power levels. Ground-interaction acoustics aggravated the instability in vehicle tests. Analysis of more than 200 hot re tests on the Morpheus vehicle and Stennis Space Center (SSC) test stand showed a relationship between ignition stability and injector/chamber pressure. The instability had the distinct characteristic of initiating at high relative injection pressure drop at low chamber pressure during the start sequence. Data analysis suggests that the two-phase density during engine start results in a high injection velocity, possibly triggering the instabilities predicted by the Hewitt stability curves. Engine ignition instability was successfully mitigated via a higher-chamber pressure start sequence (e.g., ~50% power level vs ~30%) and operational propellant start temperature limits that maintained \cold LOX" and \warm methane" at the engine inlet. The main engine successfully demonstrated 4:1 throttling without chugging during mainstage, but chug instabilities were observed during some engine shutdown sequences at low injector pressure drop, especially during vehicle landing.

Melcher, John C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

No warmup crystal oscillator

During warmup, crystal oscillators often show a frequency offset as large as 1 part in 10 to the 5th power. If timing information is transferred to the oscillator and then the oscillator is allowed to warmup, a timing error greater than 1 millisecond will occur. For many applications, it is unsuitable to wait for the oscillator to warmup. For medium accuracy timing requirements where overall accuracies in the order of 1 millisecond are required, a no warmup crystal concept was developed. The concept utilizes two crystal oscillator, used sequentially to avoid using a crystal oscillator for timing much higher frequency accuracy once warmed up. The accuracy achieved with practical TCXOs at initial start over a range of temperatures is discussed. A second design utilizing two oven controlled oscillators is also discussed.

Phillips, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Over-Winter Persistence of Supraglacial Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Results and Insights From a New Model

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: Glacier Lake. Glacier Lake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to −30◦C and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ~250 days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of −15◦C with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

glacier hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2023

Long-Term Geospace Climate Monitoring

Climate change is characterized by global surface warming associated with the increase of greenhouse gas population since the start of the industrial era. Growing evidence shows that the upper atmosphere is experiencing appreciable cooling over the last several decades. The seminal modeling study by Roble and Dickinson (1989) suggested potential effects of increased greenhouse gases on the ionosphere and thermosphere cooling which appear consistent with some observations. However, several outstanding issues remain regarding the role of CO 2 , other important contributors, and impacts of the cooling trend in the ionosphere and thermosphere: for example, (1) what is the regional variability of the trends? (2) the very strong ionospheric cooling observed by multiple incoherent scatter radars that does not fit with the prevailing theory based on the argument of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, why? (3) what is the effect of secular changes in Earth’s main magnetic field? Is it visible now in the ionospheric data and can it explain some of the regional variability in the observed ionospheric trends? (4) what is the impact of long-term cooling in the thermosphere on operational systems? (5) what are the appropriate strategic plans to ensure the long-term monitoring of the critical space climate?

long-term trends↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thresholds in Atmosphere-Soil Moisture Interactions: Results from Climate Model Studies

The potential predictability of the effects of warm season soil moisture anomalies over the central U.S. has been investigated using a series of GCM (Global Climate Model) experiments with the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) CCM3 (Community Climate Model version 3)/LSM (Land Surface Model). Three different types of experiments have been made, all starting in either March (representing precursor conditions) or June (conditions at the onset of the warm season): (1) 'anomaly' runs with large, exaggerated initial soil moisture reductions, aimed at evaluating the physical mechanisms by which soil moisture can affect the atmosphere; (2) 'predictability' runs aimed at evaluating whether typical soil moisture initial anomalies (indicative of year-to-year variability) can have a significant effect, and if so, for how long; (3) 'threshold' runs aimed at evaluating if a soil moisture anomaly must be of a specific size (i.e., a threshold crossed) before a significant impact on the atmosphere is seen. The 'anomaly' runs show a large, long-lasting response in soil moisture and also quantities such as surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation; effects persist for at least a year. The 'predictability' runs, on the other hand, show very little impact of the initial soil moisture anomalies on the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and other atmospheric parameters; internal variability is most important, with the initial state of the atmosphere (representing remote effects such as SST anomalies) playing a more minor role. The 'threshold' runs, devised to help resolve the dichotomy in 'anomaly' and 'predictability' results, suggest that, at least in CCM3/LSM, the vertical profile of soil moisture is the most important factor, and that deep soil zone anomalies exert a more powerful, long-lasting effect than do anomalies in the near surface soil zone. We therefore suggest that soil moisture feedbacks may be more important in explaining prolonged decadal to century-long droughts evident in the historic and recent prehistoric records, but less important on a seasonal to interannual time-scale.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecast experiments with the NASA/GLA stratospheric/tropospheric data assimilation system

For the first time, a four-dimensional stratospheric/tropospheric data assimilation system with a top analysis level at 0.4 mb has been developed and used to produce physically consistent gridded analyses for the stratosphere as well as the troposphere for a period during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) and Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) (November 1978-May 1979). The system consists of a two-dimensional optimum interpolation analysis with 18 mandatory pressure levels and a 19-level fourth order stratospheric/tropospheric general circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 4 (latitude) by 5 deg (longitude) and a top at 0.3 mb. The system allows the utilization of stratospheric data including LIMS, Tiros-N retrievals, rocketsondes and vertical temperature profile radiometer soundings in addition to the other FGGE level 2b data. These data are analyzed every six hours. In order to examine the quality of the analyzed data, forecast experiments starting from different analyses are performed for the period of the stratospheric sudden warming of late February 1979. The results indicate that by employing the present four-dimensional assimilation approach, the medium-range forecast skill for this event is improved.

Takano, Kenji↗
NASA NTRS2004

Blackbody Cavity for Calibrations at 200 to 273 K

A laboratory blackbody cavity has been designed and built for calibrating infrared radiometers used to measure radiant temperatures in the range from about 200 to about 273 K. In this below-room-temperature range, scattering of background infrared radiation from room-temperature surfaces could, potentially, contribute significantly to the spectral radiance of the blackbody cavity, thereby contributing a significant error to the radiant temperature used as the calibration value. The present blackbody cavity is of an established type in which multiple reflections from a combination of conical and cylindrical black-coated walls are exploited to obtain an effective emissivity greater than the emissivity value of the coating material on a flat exposed surface. The coating material in this case is a flat black paint that has an emissivity of approximately of 0.91 in the thermal spectral range and was selected over other, higher-emissivity materials because of its ability to withstand thermal cycling. We found many black coatings cracked and flaked after thermal cycling due to differences in the coefficient of expansion differences. On the basis of theoretical calculations, the effective emissivity is expected to approach 0.999. The cylindrical/conical shell enclosing the cavity is machined from copper, which is chosen for its high thermal conductivity. In use, the shell is oriented vertically, open end facing up, and inserted in a Dewar flask filled with isopropyl alcohol/dry-ice slush. A flange at the open end of the shell is supported by a thermally insulating ring on the lip of the Dewar flask. The slush cools the shell (and thus the black-body cavity) to the desired temperature. Typically, the slush starts at a temperature of about 194 K. The slush is stirred and warmed by bubbling dry air or nitrogen through it, thereby gradually increasing the temperature through the aforementioned calibration range during an interval of several hours. The temperature of the slush is monitored by use of a precise thermocouple probe.

Howell, Dane↗
NASA NTRS2012

Landscape Evolution of Titan

Titan may have acquired its massive atmosphere relatively recently in solar system history. The warming sun may have been key to generating Titan's atmosphere over time, starting from a thin atmosphere with condensed surface volatiles like Triton, with increased luminosity releasing methane, and then large amounts of nitrogen (perhaps suddenly), into the atmosphere. This thick atmosphere, initially with much more methane than at present, resulted in global fluvial erosion that has over time retreated towards the poles with the removal of methane from the atmosphere. Basement rock, as manifested by bright, rough, ridges, scarps, crenulated blocks, or aligned massifs, mostly appears within 30 degrees of the equator. This landscape was intensely eroded by fluvial processes as evidenced by numerous valley systems, fan-like depositional features and regularly-spaced ridges (crenulated terrain). Much of this bedrock landscape, however, is mantled by dunes, suggesting that fluvial erosion no longer dominates in equatorial regions. High midlatitude regions on Titan exhibit dissected sedimentary plains at a number of localities, suggesting deposition (perhaps by sediment eroded from equatorial regions) followed by erosion. The polar regions are mainly dominated by deposits of fluvial and lacustrine sediment. Fluvial processes are active in polar areas as evidenced by alkane lakes and occasional cloud cover.

Moore, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1989

Study of the atmospheric general circulation as an initial value problem with the NCAR Community Climate Model

The essential elements of the transition of a model atmosphere to the equilibrium state from two extreme rest states, a cold (240 K) state and a warm (310 K) state, were examined using the NCAR Community Climate Model. It is shown that the same equilibrium state was reached in the two spinup conditions, which was also the same that was reported for this model by Williamson and Williamson (1984), who started from still a different initial condition. The spinup from the cold initial condition was faster than that from the warm condition, although the final stages of the approach to equilibrium were very simular in both cases. It was also found that the spinup of the barotropic flow lagged behind that of the baroclinic flow and the thermal field, and the model tropics spinup was faster than that of the mid-latitudes.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS1989

Does the far-infrared/radio correlation in spiral galaxies extend to the spatial domain

A comparison is made between the spatial distribution of the thermal far-infrared and non-thermal radio emission of nearby spiral galaxies. This is done in an attempt to improve our understanding of the well known correlation between the integrated Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) far-infrared and radio emission of spiral galaxies, e.g., de Jong et al., 1985, Helou et al., 1986. A physical explanation for this correlation is not straight forward due to the ambiguous nature of the origin of the far-infrared and radio, and the dependence of the non-thermal radio on each galaxies' magnetic field. It is now widely believed that the infrared emission detected in the longer wavelength IRAS wavebands (less than 50 microns) arises from at least two distinct sources, e.g., Cox et al., 1986, Persson and Helou, 1987: (1) a warm (T approx. 40 K) component associated with dense dust clouds heated by embedded O and B type stars; and (2) a cooler (T approx. 20 K) component associated with diffuse dust distributed throughout the interstellar matter (ISM) heated by the interstellar radiation field. A link between the warm component and the radio via electrons originating in Type II supernovae (the ultimate fate of many of the O and B type stars responsible for the warm component) has been suggested by numerous authors. The supporting evidence is scarce and inconclusive. Researchers have attempted to provide some insight into the problem by looking at the spatial distribution of the different components in some nearby spiral galaxies, starting with the face-on spiral M51. The source of the far-infrared data is the IRAS chopped photometric channel (CPC) instrument. Warm and cold far-infrared fluxes integrated over all wavelengths and the radio intensity at two frequencies are plotted against radius. All plots are to a common resolution of 100 arcsec, the radio data originating from the Cambridge Low Frequency Synthesis Telescope (151 MHz) and the VLA (1490 MHz, from Condon, 1987). The warm and cold regions are assumed to be representedby a single galactic wide temperatures of 50 K and 20 K respectively. A dust emissivity of 1 has been assumed. The form of the plots is little effected by varying these assumptions. The radio and cold component curves appear to follow each other most closely, in contradiction to the simple OB star/type II supernovae hypothesis.

Howarth, Neil A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of North American Vegetation Variability under Recent Climate: A Study Using the SSiB4/TRIFFID Biophysical/Dynamic Vegetation Model

Recent studies have shown that current dynamic vegetation models have serious weaknesses in reproducing the observed vegetation dynamics and contribute to bias in climate simulations. This study intends to identify the major factors that underlie the connections between vegetation dynamics and climate variability and investigates vegetation spatial distribution and temporal variability at seasonal to decadal scales over North America (NA) to assess a 2-D biophysical model/dynamic vegetation model's (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID)) ability to simulate these characteristics for the past 60 years (1948 through 2008). Satellite data are employed as constraints for the study and to compare the relationships between vegetation and climate from the observational and the simulation data sets. Trends in NA vegetation over this period are examined. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis, leaf drop threshold temperatures, and competition coefficients in the Lotka-Volterra equation, which describes the population dynamics of species competing for some common resource, have been identified as having major impacts on vegetation spatial distribution and obtaining proper initial vegetation conditions in SSiB4/TRIFFID. The finding that vegetation competition coefficients significantly affect vegetation distribution suggests the importance of including biotic effects in dynamical vegetation modeling. The improved SSiB4/TRIFFID can reproduce the main features of the NA distributions of dominant vegetation types, the vegetation fraction, and leaf area index (LAI), including its seasonal, interannual, and decadal variabilities. The simulated NA LAI also shows a general increasing trend after the 1970s in responding to warming. Both simulation and satellite observations reveal that LAI increased substantially in the southeastern U.S. starting from the 1980s. The effects of the severe drought during 1987-1992 and the last decade in the southwestern U.S. on vegetation are also evident from decreases in the simulated and satellite-derived LAIs. Both simulated and satellite-derived LAIs have the strongest correlations with air temperature at northern middle to high latitudes in spring reflecting the effect of these climatic variables on photosynthesis and phenological processes. Meanwhile, in southwestern dry lands, negative correlations appear due to the heat and moisture stress there during the summer. Furthermore, there are also positive correlations between soil wetness and LAI, which increases from spring to summer. The present study shows both the current improvements and remaining weaknesses in dynamical vegetation models. It also highlights large continental-scale variations that have occurred in NA vegetation over the past six decades and their potential relations to climate. With more observational data availability, more studies with differentmodels and focusing on different regions will be possible and are necessary to achieve comprehensive understanding of the vegetation dynamics and climate interactions.

climate variability↗