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Severe Weather and Weak Waterspout Checklist in MIDDS

The goal of this task was to migrate the functionality of the AMU web-based Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid and the 45 WS Weak Waterspout Checklist to MIDDS, the operational data ingest and display system of the 45 WS. Forecasting the occurrence and timing of warm season severe weather and weak waterspouts is challenging for 45 WS operational personnel. These interactive tools assist forecasters in determining the probability of issuing severe weather watches and warnings for the day. MIDDS is able retrieve many of the needed parameter values for the worksheet automatically. The AMU was able to develop user-friendly tools in MIDDS for both of these tools using McBASI coded programs. The tools retrieve needed values from MIDDS automatically, and require the forecaster to answer a few subjective questions. Both tools were tested and previewed to the 45 WS on MIDDS. In their previous forms, the forecasters enter values into both tools manually to output a threat index. Making these tools more automatic will reduce the possibility of human error and increase efficiency.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Protective Effects of the Launch/Entry Suit (LES) and the Liquid Cooling Garment(LCG) During Re-entry and Landing After Spaceflight

Heart rate and arterial pressure were measured during shuttle re-entry, landing and initial standing in crewmembers with and without inflated anti-g suits and with and without liquid cooling garments (LCG). Preflight, three measurements were obtained seated, then standing. Prior to and during re-entry, arterial pressure and heart rate were measured every five minutes until wheels stop (WS). Then crewmembers initiated three seated and three standing measurements. In subjects without inflated anti-g suits, SBP and DBP were significantly lower during preflight standing (P = 0.006; P = 0.001 respectively) and at touchdown (TD) (P = 0.001; P = 0.003 respectively); standing SBP was significantly lower after WS. on-LeG users developed significantly higher heart rates during re-entry (P = 0.029, maxG; P = 0.05, TD; P = 0.02, post-WS seated; P = 0.01, post-WS standing) than LCG users. Our data suggest that the anti-g suit is effective, but the combined anti-g suit with LCG is more effective.

Perez, Sondra A.↗

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS)

Peak wind speed is important element in 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS). Forecasts issued for planning operations at KSC/CCAFS. 45 WS wind advisories issued for wind gusts greater than or equal to 25 kt. 35 kt and 50 kt from surface to 300 ft. AMU developed cool-season (Oct - Apr) tool to help 45 WS forecast: daily peak wind speed, 5-minute average speed at time of peak wind, and probability peak speed greater than or equal to 25 kt, 35 kt, 50 kt. AMU tool also forecasts daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft. Phase I and II tools delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). Phase II tool also delivered as Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) GUI. Phase I and II forecast methods were compared to climatology, 45 WS wind advisories and North American Mesoscale model (MesoNAM) forecasts in a verification data set.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Observation Denial and Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service office to initialize their locally run mesoscale models. SMG also uses the observations to support shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttie Landing Facility. Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS and SMG. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a modeling study to determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters as input to their forecasts. To accomplish this, the AMU performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (NRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB observations. The AMU assessed the accuracy of model output by comparing peak wind forecasts with operationally significant wind advisory and warning criteria forecast by the 45 WS. To assess model performance when initialized with and without some of the wind tower and XMR RAOB observations, the AMU conducted a subjective analysis by displaying model wind forecasts graphically with the observations overlaid for comparison and they conducted an objective analysis by comparing the maximum peak wind forecast to the maximum peak wind observed within the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Data were collected for twelve warm season cases and eight cool season cases from June - September 2007 and November - January 2008, respectively. For each case chosen, the 45 WS must have issued a wind advisory or warning for the KSC/CCAFS area and the KSC/CCAFS wind towers must have recorded significant wind events, or winds greater than 18 kt.

Watson, Leela R.↗

The First Year of KOKEE12M-WETTZ13S VGOS Intensive Scheduling: Status and Efforts Towards Improvement

The KOKEE12M-WETTZ13S (K2-Ws) Intensive series began on January 4, 2021. Evaluation of the first year of schedules has shown that the series is performing reasonably weel, but the schedules could be improved. For example, the number of scheduled observations in a typical 2021 K2-Ws session is approximately half that of the first few MACGO12M-WETTZ13S Intensive sessions, and scheduling fewer observations negatively impats UT1 results. Also, preliminary analysis of the scheduled and achieve SNRs of the K2-Ws observations and the SNRs' ratios shows examples where the achieved SNRs are either too high, indicating long observations that could have been replaced by a greater number of shorter observations, or too low, indicating a lack of robustness that could lead to observation loss. In this poster, we describe key aspects of how the K2-Ws Intensives have been scheduled in 2021. Then we discuss the areas of concern and the status of efforts to make improvements in these areas.

Karen Baver↗

GOES-T Goddard Magnetometer Sensor Unit Flight Thermal Predictions and On-Orbit Thermal Performance

The GOES-T Goddard Magnetometer (GMAG) sensor unit (SU) thermal design was validated by SU level thermal balance (TB) testing. The correlated SU thermal model was integrated to the observatory thermal model to predict the outboard SU temperatures and operating heater duty cycles in the worst cold case and worst hot case orbits. An orbit with the highest solar beta angle (23.5°) and an orbit with the lowest solar beta angle (0°) were run for each case. A comparison in the SU temperature predictions and heater duty cycles were made. The Autumnal Equinox (AE) cold case orbit is slightly colder than the Winter Solstice (WS) cold case orbit. The WS hot case orbit is slightly warmer than the March Equinox (VE) hot case orbit. Additionally, the lunar eclipse cold case orbit was run. It is the coldest environment. Using a 23°C set point for the SU cover heater controller, there is positive heater control for all the orbits. The heater duty cycle predictions for the AE worst cold case orbit and WS worst hot case orbit were 44.4% and 33% respectively. During the lunar eclipse, the heater cycle increases to 68.8% at the end of the eclipse. The temperature predictions for the bobbins are in the 21.9°C to 22.8°C range in the AE worst cold case orbit and in the 21.8°C to 23.0°C range in the WS worst hot case orbit. The SU temperatures during nominal operation on orbit were expected to be within the design goal, despite seasonal variations in solar beta angle and solar irradiance, and no solar flux in a lunar eclipse. The maximum operating SU cover flight heater duty cycle was expected to comply with GOLD Rule 4.25. The SU thermal design is now flight proven based on its long-term (>1 year) thermal performance on orbit.

GOES-T↗

Soft X-ray/extreme ultraviolet images of the solar atmosphere with normal incidence multilayer optics

High-resolution images of the sun in the soft-X-ray/XUV range have been obtained with normal-incidence multilayer coated optics (MCOs) during a sounding-rocket flight on October 23, 1987 from White Sands. MCOs were used in two Cassegrain telescopes, as off-axis primary mirrors, and as tertiary mirrors operating with a Wolter-Schwarzschild (WS) grazing-incidence mirror. The inherent energy-selective property of MCOs allowed distinct groups of emission lines to be isolated in the solar corona and the transition region. Images were recorded at 173 and 256 A with the Cassegrain telescopes, at 256 A with a Herschelian telescope, and at 44, 173, and 256 A with the WS hybrid telescope. In addition, soft-X-ray images in the 8-18-A bandpass were obtained at the prime focus of the WS optics. The images show many features of the solar corona and transition region, including magnetically confined loops of hot solar plasma, coronal plumes, polar coronal holes, supergranulation, and features associated with overlying cool prominences.

Lindblom, Joakim F.↗

Effect of subglacial volcanism on changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Rapid changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may affect future global sea-level changes. Alley and Whillans note that 'the water responsible for separating the glacier from its bed is produced by frictional dissipation and geothermal heat,' but assume that changes in geothermal flux would ordinarily be expected to have slower effects than glaciological parameters. I suggest that episodic subglacial volcanism and geothermal heating may have significantly greater effects on the WAIS than is generally appreciated. The WAIS flows through the active, largely asiesmic West Antarctic rift system (WS), which defines the sub-sea-level bed of the glacier. Various lines of evidence summarized in Behrendt et al. (1991) indicate high heat flow and shallow asthenosphere beneath the extended, weak lithosphere underlying the WS and the WAIS. Behrendt and Cooper suggest a possible synergistic relation between Cenozoic tectonism, episodic mountain uplift and volcanism in the West Antarctic rift system, and the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet beginning about earliest Oligocene time. A few active volcanoes and late-Cenozoic volcanic rocks are exposed throughout the WS along both flanks, and geophysical data suggest their presence beneath the WAIS. No part of the rift system can be considered inactive. I propose that subglacial volcanic eruptions and ice flow across areas of locally (episodically?) high heat flow--including volcanically active areas--should be considered possibly to have a forcing effect on the thermal regime resulting in increased melting at the base of the ice streams.

Behrendt, John C.↗

Composition of interstellar clouds in the disk and halo. 2: Gamma(sup 2) Velorum

High-resolution observations of gamma(sup 2) Vel with the Goddard High-Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) echelle on the Hubble Space Telescope reveal the presence of seven narrow absorption components, with LSR velocities between -23 and +9 km s(exp -1). Three of these show column density ratios N(S(++))/N(S(+)) and N(P(++))/N(P+)) of about 1 or more, and can be identified as H II regions, while the other four are H I regions, consistent with the O I profile and with the overall H(sup 0) column density of 5.9 x 10(exp 19) cm(exp -2), given the usual assumptions that S is undepleted while O has a depletion D(O) = -0.3 dex. The depletions of Fe, Si, and Mn, which could be measure accurately for two of the four H I regions (components 6 and 7), differ somewhat from the values of D(sub ws) found for slowly moving warm clouds in HD 93521; in particular, for the component at 4.0 km s(exp -1) (No. 6), abosolute of D exceeds absolute of D(sub ws) by 0.1-0.4 dex, while for that at 9.3 km s(exp -1) (No. 7), absolute of D equals absolute of D(sub ws) on the average. The observed ratio of Fe + Mg atoms to Si atoms in the grains of component 6 is 2.04 +/-0.10, consistent with an olivine grain composition; the Fe/Mg ratio is 1.5 +/- 0.2. The electron density in component 6, determined from the C II(sup *) feature, is 0.075 +/- 0.013 cm (exp -3), about two-thirds of that found for clouds of this velocity in HD 93521. In the two conspicuous H II regions, components 3 and 4, n(sub e), determined from the Si II(sup *) feature, is about 1 cm(exp -3). From the column density of S(+) + S(++) in these two components, the total H II path length is about 40 pc. With the radius of a wind-blown bubble around gamma(sup 2) Vel set equal to 60 pc, the effective Stromgren radius is about 100 pc, requiring that T approx. equal to 50,000 K for the Wolf-Rayet component of the gamma(sup 2) Vel binary. Since zeta Pup is a comparable source of ionizing radiation, this temperature is an upper limit. The profiles of the strongest H2 absorption features, from Copernicus archives, indicate that the absorbing molecules have a mean velocity identical with that of the strongest H II component (No. 4). We have no explanation for the possible presence of these H2 molecules in a region of ionized H. Alternatively, the H2 profiles can be explained by molecules in the two adjacent (in velocity) H I regions, components 2 and 5, provided their H I gas has densities and temperatures typical of normal cold clouds. The GHRS data show absorption by highly ionized atoms Si(3+) and C(3+), N(4+) in broad features, in addition to the narrow-line absorption by Si(3+) and C(3+) observed in the dominant H II components, Nos. 3 and 4. The broad C(3+) and N(4+) features have widths corresponding to T in the range (4-8) x 10(exp 5) K, consistent with the broad O(5+) line shown in Copernicus data. Despite some observational uncertainties, the ratios of column densities in the broad C(3+), N(4+), and O(5+) features agree to +/- 0.1 dex with theoretical values for warm gas, heating and evaporating by thermal conduction from an adjacent hot region. Outward evaporation from an isolated cloud in a hot ambient gas cannot be distinguished, on the basis of these data, from inward evaporation of a warm shell, compressed by an expanding, hot stellar-wind bubble. For several halo stars, the C IV/O VI ratio has a quite different average value, perhaps consistent with cooling of infalling hot gas instead of conductive heating and evaporation.

Fitzpatrick, Edward L.↗

Persistent Seroconversion after Accidental Eye Exposure to Calcifying Nanoparticles

Biosafety of nanomaterials has attracted much attention recently. We report here a case where accidental human eye exposure to biogenic nanosized calcium phosphate in the form of calcifying nanoparticles (CNP) raised a strong IgG immune response against proteins carried by CNP. The antibody titer has persisted over ten years at the high level. The IgG was detected by ELISA using CNPs propagated in media containing bovine and human serum as antigen. The exposure incident occurred to a woman scientist (WS) at a research laboratory in Finland at 1993. CNP, also termed "nanobacteria", is a unique self-replicating agent that has not been fully characterized and no data on biohazards were available at that time. Before the accident, her serum samples were negative for both CNP antigen and anti-CNP antibody using specific ELISA tests (Nanobac Oy, Kuopio, Finland). The accident occurred while WS was harvesting CNP cultures. Due to a high pressure in pipetting, CNP pellet splashed into her right eye. Both eyes were immediately washed with water and saline. The following days there was irritation and redness in the right eye. These symptoms disappeared within two weeks without any treatment. Three months after the accident, blood and urine samples of WS were tested for CNP cultures (2), CNP-specific ELISA tests, and blood cell counts. Blood cell counts were normal, CNP antigen and culture tests were negative. A high IgG anti-CNP antibody titer was detected (see Figure). The antibodies of this person have been used thereafter as positive control and standard in ELISA manufacturing (Nano-Sero IgG ELISA, Nanobac Oy, Kuopio, Finland).

Ciftcioglu, Neva↗

Dust Devil Tracks and Wind Streaks in the North Polar Region of Mars: A Study of the 2007 Phoenix Mars Lander Sites

The 65-72 latitude band of the North Polar Region of Mars, where the 2007 Phoenix Mars Lander will land, was studied using satellite images from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera Narrow-Angle (MOC-NA) camera. Dust devil tracks (DDT) and wind streaks (WS) were observed and recorded as surface evidence for winds. No active dust devils (DDs) were observed. 162 MOC-NA images, 10.3% of total images, contained DDT/WS. Phoenix landing Region C (295-315W) had the highest concentration of images containing DDT/WS per number of available images (20.9%); Region D (130-150W) had the lowest (3.5%). DDT and WS direction were recorded for Phoenix landing regions A (110-130W), B (240-260W), and C to infer local wind direction. Region A showed dominant northwest-southeast DDT/WS, Region B showed dominant north-south, east-west and northeast-southwest DDT/WS, and region C showed dominant west/northwest - east/southeast DDT/ WS. Results indicate the 2007 Phoenix Lander has the highest probability of landing near DDT/WS in landing Region C. Based on DDT/WS linearity, we infer Phoenix would likely encounter directionally consistent background wind in any of the three regions.

Mars↗

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

This Quarter's Highlights incllude: completion of the second phase of verifying the performance of the MesoNAM weather model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). (1) The data was delivered to the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the final report was distributed (2) Staff completed modifying and updating lightning c1imatologies for KSC/CCAFS and other airfields around central Florida. We delivered the tool to the National Weather Service in Melbourne and 45 WS and distributed the final report (3) Staff completed modifying the AMU peak wind tool by analyzing wind tower data to determine peak wind behavior during times of onshore and offshore flow. This was delivered the to the 45 WS and distributed the final report.

Bauman, William↗

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

Radar Scan Strategies for the Patrick Air Force Base Weather Surveillance Radar, Model-74C, Replacement

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is replacing the Weather Surveillance Radar, Model 74C (WSR-74C) at Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB), with a Doppler, dual polarization radar, the Radtec 43/250. A new scan strategy is needed for the Radtec 43/250, to provide high vertical resolution data over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) launch pads, while taking advantage of the new radar's advanced capabilities for detecting severe weather phenomena associated with convection within the 45 WS area of responsibility. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed several scan strategies customized for the operational needs of the 45 WS. The AMU also developed a plan for evaluating the scan strategies in the period prior to operational acceptance, currently scheduled for November 2008.

Short, David↗