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At least 37 records · Page 2

Interactions Between Clouds and Wind-Driven Surface Heat Exchanges over Land

Earth system model experiments show that increasing horizontal resolution fundamentally alters the simulated soil-moisture-precipitation feedback. Kilometer-scale simulations often produce weaker or even negative feedback compared to coarse-resolution models. A key difference of kilometer-scale models is that they resolve mesoscale secondary circulations, including boundary layer horizontal rolls and cellular structures, in addition to cold pools and downdrafts associated with convective precipitation. However, because the relevant processes occur on yet-smaller scales, these circulations are often poorly resolved. This project demonstrated that boundary layer secondary circulations significantly affect surface heat exchanges and wind gusts, and that current model parameterizations can misrepresent these processes at kilometer-scale resolution. Using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations and targeted experiments with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we identified physically unrealistic wind gust and surface flux responses to secondary circulations, diagnosed a systematic overestimation of wind shear in convective cold pools, and uncovered a multivariate relationship between land surface fluxes and the scales of updrafts that form shallow cumulus clouds. These findings provide observation-based recommendations for improving parameterizations of surface fluxes and wind gusts in high-resolution Earth system models, thereby reducing uncertainty in convective storm prediction and land-atmosphere feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synergetic Use of the WSR-88D Radars, GOES-R Satellites, and Lightning Networks to Study Microphysical Characteristics of Hurricanes

Abstract This study analyzes the microphysics and precipitation pattern of Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) in both the eyewall and outer rainband regions. From the retrievals by a satellite red–green–blue scheme, the outer rainbands show a strong convective structure while the inner eyewall has less convective vigor (i.e., weaker upper-level reflectivities and electrification), which may be related to stronger vertical wind shear that hinders fast vertical motions. The WSR-88D column-vertical profiles further confirm that the outer rainband clouds have strong vertical motion and large ice-phase hydrometeor formation aloft, which correlates well with 3D Lightning Mapping Array source counts in height and time. From the results from this study, it is determined that the inner eyewall region is dominated by warm rain, whereas the external rainband region contains intense mixed-phase precipitation. External rainbands are defined here as those that reside outside of the main hurricane circulation, associated with surface tropical storm wind speeds. The synergy of satellite and radar dual-polarization parameters is instrumental in distinguishing between the key microphysical features of intense convective rainbands and the warm-rain-dominated eyewall regions within the hurricanes. Substantial amounts of ice aloft and intense updrafts in the external rainbands are indicative of heavy surface precipitation, which can have important implications for severe weather warnings and quantitative precipitation forecasts. The novel part of this study is to combine ground-based radar measurement with satellite observations to study hurricane microphysical structure from surface to cloud top so as to fill in the gaps between the two observational techniques.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Ocean Cooling of 2.3°C During the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract Quantitative constraints on past mean ocean temperature (MOT) critically inform our historical understanding of Earth's energy balance. A recently developed MOT proxy based on paleoatmospheric Xe, Kr, and N 2 ratios in ice core air bubbles is a promising tool rooted in the temperature dependences of gas solubilities. However, these inert gases are systematically undersaturated in the modern ocean interior, and it remains unclear how air‐sea disequilibrium may have changed in the past. Here, we carry out 30 tracer‐enabled model simulations under varying circulation, sea ice cover, and wind stress regimes to evaluate air‐sea disequilibrium in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ocean. We find that undersaturation of all three gases was likely reduced, primarily due to strengthened high‐latitude winds, biasing reconstructed MOT by −0.38 ± 0.37°C (1σ). Accounting for air‐sea disequilibrium, paleoatmospheric inert gases indicate that LGM MOT was 2.27 ± 0.46°C (1σ) colder than the pre‐industrial era.

Seltzer, A. M.↗

Global cascade of kinetic energy in the ocean and the atmospheric imprint

Here, we present an estimate for the ocean's global scale transfer of kinetic energy (KE), across scales from 10 to 40,000 km. Oceanic KE transfer between gyre scales and mesoscales is induced by the atmosphere’s Hadley, Ferrel, and polar cells, and the intertropical convergence zone induces an intense downscale KE transfer. Upscale transfer peaks at 300 gigawatts across mesoscales of 120 km in size, roughly one-third the energy input by winds into the oceanic general circulation. Nearly three quarters of this “cascade” occurs south of 15°S and penetrates almost the entire water column. The mesoscale cascade has a self-similar seasonal cycle with characteristic lag time of ≈27 days per octave of length scales; transfer across 50 km peaks in spring, while transfer across 500 km peaks in summer. KE of those mesoscales follows the same cycle but peaks ≈40 days after the peak cascade, suggesting that energy transferred across a scale is primarily deposited at a scale four times larger.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Management System of an Outer-Rotor-Motor-Based Traction Drive With Integrated Power Electronics in its Central Cavity

Increasing power densities of electric vehicle traction drive systems necessitates combining the electric motor and the power electronics into one unit. A compact, integrated traction drive unit with fewer components also drives production costs down, enabling wider adoption of electric vehicles. However, the integration of power electronics in the electric machine is associated with challenges of designing an effective thermal management solution for the combined traction drive system. This paper focuses on the thermal management approach selected for Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s outer-rotor-motor-based integrated traction drive and evaluates its potential performance. The outer-rotor-motor configuration provided an opportunity for integration of the six-phase inverter in the available space in the central cavity of the internal stator. A cylindrical inverter enclosure with integrated coolant (water-ethylene glycol) channels in its walls was designed to enable heat removal from the power electronics. Numerical thermal-fluid modeling and initial channel/fin optimization results for the cylindrical heat sink are presented here. As permanent magnets are integrated in a high-speed (20 000 RPM) outer rotor, forced air convection provides cooling for the magnets. The magnets were segmented axially to mitigate the eddy current losses. Heat generated in the stator windings and laminations is removed by water-ethylene glycol coolant circulating in interpolar T-shape ceramic heat exchangers inserted between windings. General design concepts and numerical thermal-fluid simulations illustrating the electric motor thermal management solution are also presented.

Kekelia, Bidzina↗

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Analysis of Offshore Wind-Farm-Induced Drag Effects on Coastal Upwelling Dynamics

Wind farms extract momentum from the atmospheric flow, generating wind-speed deficits both within the plant, and extending downstream. When located offshore, these deficits modulate air-sea coupling, potentially impacting coastal upwelling in sensitive regions. We investigate impacts of wind farms on coastal upwelling using kilometre-scale, three-way-coupled simulations with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport system for the US West Coast. Wind-farm effects are represented by a generalised turbine drag formulation, an idealised, height-dependent body force whose magnitude is systematically varied. This approach isolates the leading-order fluid-dynamical response in a realistic coastal configuration. The atmospheric adjustment exhibits an approximately linear relation between drag force and wind-speed deficit, with wakes that expand downstream and increase in magnitude as drag increases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea-surface-temperature anomalies reveals the emergence of a canonical dipole pattern under strong drag forcing. Subsurface diagnostics show consistent shoaling of the mixed layer and suppressed upward velocities in areas near wind-farm region, accompanied by compensating enhancements of shoaling closer to the coast. These results identify turbine drag as a control parameter in assessing interactions between wind-farm wake and coastal upwelling and provide scaling relationships for understanding offshore wind-farm effects on the coastal circulation dynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Chapter 9.12 - Weather, Climatic and Ecological Impacts of Onshore Wind Farms

Wind power is an environmentally sustainable technology that is likely to be part of the solution to the climate change, air pollution, and energy security problems. Despite many positive benefits, the rapid development of wind power has raised concerns about some potential adverse environmental impacts. While converting wind?s kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines (WTs) modify properties of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) including the vertical profiles and surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, moisture, and trace gases. Given the current installed capacity and the projected installation worldwide, wind farms (WFs) are likely becoming a major driver of manmade land use change on Earth. Hence, understanding WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and assessing potential environmental impacts of WFs are of significant scientific, societal and economic importance. Here we review our progress in assessing potential impacts of onshore wind power on weather, climate and vegetation activity. A consensus is emerging based on observations and modeling studies that WFs cause a local to regional warming effect, particularly at nighttime, while the impacts on precipitation, wind patterns, crop yields and vegetation activity are uncertain. The warming effect results simply from vertical heat redistribution within the ABL due to turbine-enhanced vertical turbulent mixing in the wakes. At the global scale, with a substantial installation of WFs, mesoscale and climate models predicted large regional changes but small global impacts on temperature, while the impacts on precipitation, clouds, wind patterns and large-scale circulation have large uncertainties and are region specific and scale dependent. Despite increasing number of research efforts, our assessment of potential WF impacts is still very limited. Although the WF impacts are mostly local and limited to the near-surface ABL, this is the layer where we live and plants grow. Hence, more studies are needed to improve our understanding of WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and our capability to model and project the weather, climatic and ecological impacts of large WFs.

atmospheric boundary layer↗

Long-term increase in atmospheric stagnant conditions over northeast Asia and the role of greenhouse gases-driven warming

We report the recent trend in the air quality degradation of urban South Korea prompted the authors to examine the long-term changes in the near-surface wind speed and its link with the lower atmospheric circulation, using modern reanalysis datasets. Analyses based on JRA-55 data show a negative correlation between near-surface wind speed and static stability over the Yellow Sea and the western part of South Korea. Near-surface wind speed shows a clear declining trend accompanied by increased static stability, while its negative correlation strengthened recently. Further investigations using CMIP5 single-forcing experiments suggest that global warming because of anthropogenic greenhouse gases probably increased static stability in the lower troposphere, implying further atmospheric stagnant conditions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-scale offshore wind farm effects on weather and climate in Puerto Rico (Final Technical Report)

Puerto Rico’s current electricity generation heavily relies on imported fossil fuels. This results in an average cost of electricity higher than the U.S. mainland average in all sectors (residential, commercial, and industrial), despite abundant local offshore wind resources, which have the potential to provide secure, low-cost energy generation and consequent economic prosperity. However, effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting from large-scale deployments of offshore wind farms have not been previously studied at tropical latitude. This project addressed this knowledge gap through a computational modeling effort designed to capture the coupled dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean in presence of offshore wind farms. Results indicate that wind farm wakes can alter wind stress, generate Ekman-driven vertical transport, and potentially affect nutrient distribution. While full model coupling remains challenging, progress in parameterization and large-eddy simulations provides a foundation for future research. The project contributes to DOE’s Earth System modeling efforts and supports STEM workforce development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?

Abstract Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗

The Interaction between the Nocturnal Amazonian Low-Level Jet and Convection in CESM

A nocturnal Amazonian low-level jet (ALLJ) was recently diagnosed using reanalysis data. This work assesses the ability of CESM1.2.2 to reproduce the jet and explores the mechanisms by which the ALLJ influences convection in the Amazon. The coupled CESM simulates the nocturnal ALLJ realistically, while CAM5 does not. A low-level cold air temperature bias in the eastern Amazon exists in CAM5, and thus the ALLJ is weaker than observed. However, a cold SST bias over the equatorial North Atlantic in the coupled model offsets the cold air temperature bias, producing a realistic ALLJ. Climate models significantly underestimate March–May (MAM) precipitation over the eastern Amazon. Here, we ran two sensitivity experiments using the coupled CESM by adding bottom-heavy diabatic heating at noon and midnight for 2.5 h along the coastal Amazon during MAM to mimic the occurrence of shallow precipitating convection. When heating is added during the early afternoon, coastal convection deepens and the ALLJ transports moisture inland from the ocean, preconditioning the environment for deep convective development during the ensuing hours. The increased convection over the eastern Amazon also moderately alleviates the equatorial Atlantic westerly wind bias, leading to deepening of the east Atlantic thermocline in the following months and partially improving the simulated June–August (JJA) Atlantic cold tongue in the coupled model. When heating is added at night, coastal convection does not strengthen as much and the ALLJ transports less moisture. Improvements in the simulated Atlantic winds and SST are negligible. Therefore, diurnal circulations matter to the organization of convection and rain across the Amazon, with impacts over the equatorial Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Roles of Low‐Level Wind Speed and Moisture in the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall Over a Tropical Island Under Monsoonal Flows

Abstract Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the relative roles of low‐level wind speed and moisture content in the rainfall diurnal cycle over a tropical island influenced by monsoonal winds. Results show that the spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall over the island are evidently influenced by the two factors. Specifically, the spatial distribution of rainfall is primarily determined by the low‐level wind speeds, while the rainfall diurnal cycle is influenced by both factors. Weaker low‐level wind speed leads to stronger and wider inland convergence and afternoon precipitation, which are mainly produced by the inland penetrating sea breeze fronts. Nighttime rainfall over the island is closely related to the inertial oscillation. Stronger nocturnal rainfall can be found with higher low‐level moisture content and stronger monsoonal winds. The multiscale interactions between the large‐scale circulation, land–sea breezes, and inertial oscillation play essential roles in modulating the rainfall over this tropical island.

Zhu, Lei↗

An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change

In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-global-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration

Abstract Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗