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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CADIS and FW-CADIS Variance Reduction in Gamma Transport for Predicting Prompt Forensics Signatures

The goal of prompt nuclear forensics is to determine the characteristics of a nuclear detonation based on the signatures available almost immediately after the explosion. An important characteristic is the reaction time history (RTH), a measure of the device’s rate of neutron multiplication. The RTH can be estimated by observation of the gamma radiation emitted from the detonation, which can be detected directly or observed indirectly as Teller light. Gamma transport simulations used to predict these radiation fields are often modeled stochastically using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, which can be a computationally demanding task due to the number of particle histories needed to achieve statistical convergence. In an attempt to improve the efficiency of these calculations, we evaluate two variance reduction techniques: Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) and Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS). These methods use a deterministically calculated adjoint flux to create weight windows and source biasing that guide MCNP sampling. We study the utility of CADIS and FW-CADIS for their use in MCNP gamma transport for nuclear forensics prediction simulations. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that both CADIS and FW-CADIS improve the accuracy for forensics-focused simulations, with CADIS being most beneficial in direct detection and FW-CADIS being ideal for computing a global Teller light source.

CADIS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2025

CoVVVR: Control Variates & Vegas Variance Reduction

This package is a wrapper over the vegas integration package. The control variate variance reduction method is applied to the function when integrated along with the techniques applied in vegas such as importance sampling. To understand control variates, lets first look at how Monte Carlo works.

Scott, JacobL. [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2024

Muon Flux Variance from Severe Atmospheric Conditions

We analyze data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the QuarkNet Research Group at Fermilab to study the variance in muon flux due to extreme weather conditions. We considered three high-intensity storms for each season: winter, spring, and summer. The most significant observation was during winter, with a ~125% increase in muon flux corresponding to a temperature drop of ~20K. Additionally, we are developing CosmicWatch muon detectors to be used in tests for the MMBC/MAMBA Bubble Chamber. A pair of these detectors will be employed to trigger on muons, providing extremely precise and inexpensive tracking granularity in the form of a muon telescope.

Aamir, Yusuf↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1024 Milky Way–mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a ΛCDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of the dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

Rose, Jonah C. [Princeton University, NJ (United S↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A theoretical study of the upper bound of surface elevation variance in the Phillips initial stage during wind-wave generation

The resonance mechanism in the initial of wind-wave generation proposed by Phillips is a foundation of wind-wave generation theory, but a precise theoretical quantification of wave energy growth in this initial stage has not been obtained yet after more than six decades of research. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by developing an analytical approach based on a novel complex analysis method to theoretically investigate the temporal evolution of the wave energy in the Phillips initial stage. We quantitatively derive and analyse the growth behaviour of the surface wave energy and obtain an analytical solution for its upper bound. Our result highlights the crucial effects of surface tension. Because the phase velocity of gravity–capillary waves has a minimal value at a critical wavenumber, gravity–capillary waves and gravity waves (which neglect surface tension) exhibit distinct resonance curve properties and wave energy growth behaviours. For gravity waves, the resonance curve extends indefinitely; for gravity–capillary waves, it either forms a finite-length curve or does not exist, depending on the wind speed. The leading-order term of the upper-bound solution of the energy of gravity waves increases linearly over time, while for gravity–capillary waves, the term increases linearly over time under strong wind conditions but remains finite under weak wind conditions. This theoretical study provides an analytical framework for the generation of wind-waves in the Phillips initial stage, which may inspire further theoretical, numerical and experimental research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Hybrid Variance Reduction on Advanced Architectures in the Shift Monte Carlo Code

Monte Carlo transport methods are the most accurate schemes for solving problems with complex energy and spatial features, but they come with a high computational cost. Although hybrid methods have enabled the use of Monte Carlo transport for a large class of problems, they still require significant computing resources. Modern multicore CPUs with large numbers of compute cores and graphical processing units (GPUs) provide opportunities to optimize the memory and run-time costs of hybrid Monte Carlo methods. This paper documents the development and analysis of three Monte Carlo transport algorithms that support hybrid transport using the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and forward-weighted CADIS methods in the Shift Monte Carlo code: history-based transport using static and dynamic threading on multicore CPUs and event-based transport enabling weight window tracking on GPUs. The results are shown for two challenging hybrid problems on the Frontier supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results show that all three methods yield good performance and enable solutions of difficult fixed-source transport problems in less than 2 min on 20 nodes of Frontier. Dynamic threading was observed to give up to 20% better scaling behavior than static threading. Moreover, the AMD Instinct 250X GPU was found to give 9 to 11 times greater throughput per graphics compute die than the best CPU performance. In conclusion, additional opportunities for optimization of hybrid transport on GPUs are discussed.

Denovo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vertical Velocity under Shallow Cumulus

Vertical velocity distribution below cloud is one of the key determinants of cloud life cycle, but observations of this variable are extremely sparse in space. Doppler lidar retrievals and large-eddy simulations at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains site are used to determine whether vertical velocity statistics from temporally dense profiles at a single location can be substituted for spatial vertical velocity statistics. We show that even a small number (five) of widely distributed [ O (1°) latitude/longitude spacing] lidars is sufficient sampling to reconstruct domainwide spatial vertical velocity variance, but not higher moments of the vertical velocity distribution. Spatial and temporal vertical velocity variances in the Doppler lidar observations are nearly interchangeable as long as the spatial variance is temporally averaged and the temporal variance is averaged across lidars. This is true even though the dominant spatial scales of vertical velocity variability are ≲ 3 km, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the spacing between the lidars. Further, in the limit where the temporal variance does not vary across a spatial domain (e.g., if the meteorological and surface forcing of the atmospheric turbulence is homogeneous across the domain) and the domain-mean vertical velocity is zero, the commonly available retrieval of temporal vertical velocity variance at one site is equivalent to the spatial variance over the domain. We use an updraft parcel model to show that substituting temporal for spatial vertical velocity statistics will have a relatively minor effect on cloud droplet number concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗
DOE OSTI2026

A buoyancy–shear–drag–scalar-based turbulence model for power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing

A previously developed phenomenological turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing based on a general buoyancy–shear–drag model [O. Schilling, “A buoyancy–shear–drag-based turbulence model for Rayleigh–Taylor, reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing,” Physica D 402, 132238 (2020)] is extended to include active or passive scalar mixing and power-law acceleration-driven Rayleigh–Taylor mixing. The buoyancy–shear–drag equations are coupled to a scalar variance equation that is used to define the molecular mixing parameter θ m , and when the scalar is active, modifies the Rayleigh–Taylor and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing layer growth parameters to depend on the asymptotic value of this parameter, θ mol . Here, the scalar variance equation is closed by algebraically or differentially modeling the scalar variance dissipation rate. Nonlinear analytical solutions of the model are obtained in the total and separate bubble and spike mixing layer width formulations with the algebraic scalar variance dissipation rate for each instability, which are then used to calibrate the mechanical and scalar equation coefficients to predict specific values of physical observables and molecular mixing parameters. Surrogate mechanical and scalar turbulent fields can be constructed by multiplying a presumed self-similar spatial profile by appropriate functions of the width and its time derivative, and of the scalar obtained by solving the ordinary differential model equations. The explicit modeling and solution of turbulent transport equations are not required. The bubble and spike mixing layer width and scalar variance equations are then solved numerically for constant-acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor, impulsively reshocked Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz mixing, confirming that the prescribed level of molecular mixing is correctly predicted and illustrating the spatiotemporal evolution of the scalar fields.

Buoyancy–drag↗
DOE OSTI2025

Asymptotic coefficients of the attached-eddy model derived from an adiabatic atmosphere

The attached-eddy model (AEM) predicts that the mean streamwise velocity and streamwise velocity variance profiles follow a logarithmic shape, while the vertical velocity variance remains invariant with height in the overlap region of high Reynolds number wall-bounded turbulent flows. Moreover, the AEM coefficients are presumed to attain asymptotically constant values at very high Reynolds numbers. Here, the AEM predictions are examined using sonic anemometer measurements in the near-neutral atmospheric surface layer, with a focus on the logarithmic behaviour of the streamwise velocity variance. Utilizing an extensive 210-day dataset collected from a 62 m meteorological tower located in the Eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA, the inertial sublayer is first identified by analysing the measured momentum flux and mean velocity profiles. The logarithmic behaviour of the streamwise velocity variance and the associated ‘−1’ scaling of the streamwise velocity energy spectra are then investigated. The findings indicate that the Townsend–Perry coefficient (A 1 ) is influenced by mild non-stationarity that manifests itself as a Reynolds number dependence. After excluding non-stationary runs, and requiring the bulk Reynolds number defined using the atmospheric boundary layer height to be larger than 4 × 10 7 , the inferred A 1 converges to values ranging between 1 and 1.25, consistent with laboratory experiments. Furthermore, nine benchmark cases selected through a restrictive quality control reveal a close relation between the ‘−1’ scaling in the streamwise velocity energy spectrum and the logarithmic behaviour of streamwise velocity variance. However, additional data are required to determine whether the plateau value of the pre-multiplied streamwise velocity energy spectrum is identical to A 1 .

atmospheric flows↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of normalization strategies for mass spectrometry-based multi-omics datasets

Introduction Data normalization is crucial for multi-omics integration, reducing systematic errors and maximizing the likelihood of discovering true biological variation. Most studies assess normalization for a single omics type or use datasets from separate experiments. Few address time-course data, where normalization might bias temporal differentiation. In this study, we compared common normalization methods and a machine learning approach, Systematical Error Removal using Random Forest (SERRF), using multi-omics datasets generated from the same experiment—even from the same cell lysate. Objectives To develop a straightforward process to assess normalization effects and identify the most robust methods across multi-omics datasets. Methods We analyzed metabolomics, lipidomics, and proteomics datasets from primary human cardiomyocytes and motor neurons exposed to acetylcholine-active compounds over time. Normalization effectiveness was evaluated based on improvement in QC features consistency and observing the change in treatment and time-related variance. Results Probabilistic Quotient Normalization (PQN) and Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) QC were identified as optimal for metabolomics and lipidomics, while PQN, Median, and LOESS normalization excelled for proteomics. These methods consistently enhanced QC feature consistency in metabolomics and lipidomics, and preserved time-related variance or treatment-related variance in proteomics, demonstrating their effectiveness and robustness. SERRF normalization, applied only to metabolomics in this study, outperformed other methods in some datasets but inadvertently masked treatment-related variance in others. Conclusion Our evaluation identified PQN and LoessQC as the top methods for metabolomics and lipidomics, and PQN, Median, and Loess normalization for proteomics, in multi-omics integration in a temporal study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗