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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

CLOUD STRUCTURE OF THE NEAREST BROWN DWARFS. II. HIGH-AMPLITUDE VARIABILITY FOR LUHMAN 16 A AND B IN AND OUT OF THE 0.99 μm FeH FEATURE

The re-emergence of the 0.99 μm FeH feature in brown dwarfs of early- to mid-T spectral type has been suggested as evidence for cloud disruption where flux from deep, hot regions below the Fe cloud deck can emerge. The same mechanism could account for color changes at the L/T transition and photometric variability. We present the first observations of spectroscopic variability of brown dwarfs covering the 0.99 μm FeH feature. We observed the spatially resolved very nearby brown dwarf binary WISE J104915.57–531906.1 (Luhman 16AB), a late-L and early-T dwarf, with Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 in the G102 grism at 0.8–1.15 μm. We find significant variability at all wavelengths for both brown dwarfs, with peak-to-valley amplitudes of 9.3% for Luhman 16B and 4.5% for Luhman 16A. This represents the first unambiguous detection of variability in Luhman 16A. We estimate a rotational period between 4.5 and 5.5 hr, very similar to Luhman 16B. Variability in both components complicates the interpretation of spatially unresolved observations. The probability for finding large amplitude variability in any two brown dwarfs is less than 10%. Our finding may suggest that a common but yet unknown feature of the binary is important for the occurrence of variability. For both objects, the amplitude is nearly constant at all wavelengths except in the deep K i feature below 0.84 μm. No variations are seen across the 0.99 μm FeH feature. The observations lend strong further support to cloud height variations rather than holes in the silicate clouds, but cannot fully rule out holes in the iron clouds. We re-evaluate the diagnostic potential of the FeH feature as a tracer of cloud patchiness.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Soil Respiration Variability and Correlation Across a Wide Range of Temporal Scales

Abstract The high temporal variability of the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux (soil respiration, R S ) has been studied at hourly to multiannual time scales but remains less well understood than R S spatial variability. How R S fluxes vary and are autocorrelated at various time lags has practical implications for sampling and more fundamentally for our understanding of its abiotic and biotic underlying mechanisms. We examined the variability, correlation, and sampling requirements of R S over a wide range of temporal scales in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Maryland, USA, using both automated (temporally continuous, N = 30,036 over 10 months) and survey (spatially diverse, temporally sparse, N = 1,912 over 17 months) data. Data from a global R S database were also used to examine interannual variability in comparable forests. The coefficient of variability of successive measurements generally varied from the minute (median coefficient of variation 16%) to hourly and daily (11–12%) time scales. Successive R S values measured at a given collar exhibited a strong hour‐to‐hour correlation ( r = 0.931) and a moderate correlation at a 2‐hr lag (0.289); day‐to‐day (i.e., 24 hr lag) hourly observations were uncorrelated. Daily R S means were well correlated at a 1‐day lag ( r = 0.856) but not at any further time lag. In a linear mixed‐effects model predicting R S , soil temperature and moisture exerted consistently strong effects regardless of time scale, and model coefficient of variability was generally high (>80%). These results provide new opportunities to explore the drivers and variability of R S fluxes, quantify sampling requirements, and improve error propagation.

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the relative roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability

The relative roles of the ocean and the atmosphere in driving the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are investigated by isolating the AMO components forced by anomalous surface heat fluxes and ocean dynamics in a fully- and partially-coupled experiments. The impact of the ocean-dynamics-forced SST on air-sea interaction is disabled in the partially-coupled experiment in order to isolate the atmosphere-forced variability. In the partially-coupled experiment, the ocean-forced AMO component exhibits a strong multi-decadal variability (25- to 50-yr periods), while the atmosphere-forced component has weak multi-decadal variability. This ocean-forced variability is imprinted on the fully-coupled surface heat fluxes, which however, damp the ocean-forced SST variability inducing them, so that the fully-coupled AMO multi-decadal power is only slightly stronger than that forced by the atmosphere alone. Our results suggest that the multi-decadal variability of the AMO is largely driven by ocean dynamics, but its power is also determined by the strength air-sea coupling.

Garuba, Oluwayemi A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Communication: Wigner functions in action-angle variables, Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization, the Heisenberg correspondence principle, and a symmetrical quasi-classical approach to the full electronic density matrix

It is pointed out that the classical phase space distribution in action-angle (a-a) variables obtained from a Wigner function depends on how the calculation is carried out: if one computes the standard Wigner function in Cartesian variables (p, x), and then replaces p and x by their expressions in terms of a-a variables, one obtains a different result than if the Wigner function is computed directly in terms of the a-a variables. Furthermore, the latter procedure gives a result more consistent with classical and semiclassical theory—e.g., by incorporating the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization condition (quantum states defined by integer values of the action variable) as well as the Heisenberg correspondence principle for matrix elements of an operator between such states—and has also been shown to be more accurate when applied to electronically non-adiabatic applications as implemented within the recently developed symmetrical quasi-classical (SQC) Meyer-Miller (MM) approach. Moreover, use of the Wigner function (obtained directly) in a-a variables shows how our standard SQC/MM approach can be used to obtain off-diagonal elements of the electronic density matrix by processing in a different way the same set of trajectories already used (in the SQC/MM methodology) to obtain the diagonal elements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subseasonal Variability of U.S. Coastal Sea Level from MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Interference

Abstract Climate variability affects sea levels as certain climate modes can accelerate or decelerate the rising sea level trend, but subseasonal variability of coastal sea levels is underexplored. This study is the first to investigate how remote tropical forcing from the MJO and ENSO impact subseasonal U.S. coastal sea level variability. Here, composite analyses using tide gauge data from six coastal regions along the U.S. East and West Coasts reveal influences on sea level anomalies from both the MJO and ENSO. Tropical MJO deep convection forces a signal that results in U.S. coastal sea level anomalies that vary based on MJO phase. Further, ENSO is shown to modulate both the MJO sea level response and background state of the teleconnections. The sea level anomalies can be significantly enhanced or weakened by the MJO-associated anomaly along the East Coast due to constructive or destructive interference with the ENSO-associated anomaly, respectively. The West Coast anomaly is found to be dominated by ENSO. We examine physical mechanisms by which MJO and ENSO teleconnections impact coastal sea levels and find consistent relationships between low-level winds and sea level pressure that are spatially varying drivers of the variability. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts. Significance Statement Coastal flooding due to sea level rise is increasingly threatening communities, but natural fluctuations of coastal sea levels can exacerbate the human-caused sea level rise trend. This study assesses the role of tropical influences on coastal subseasonal (2 weeks–3 months) sea level heights. Further, we explore the mechanisms responsible, particularly for constructive interference of signals contributing to coastal flooding events. Subseasonal signals amplify or suppress the lower-frequency signals, resulting in higher or lower sea level heights than those expected from known climate modes (e.g., ENSO). Low-level onshore winds and reduced sea level pressure connected to the tropical phenomena are shown to be indicators of increased U.S. coastal sea levels, and vice versa. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2015

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2010

GAMMA-RAY LIGHT CURVES AND VARIABILITY OF BRIGHT FERMI-DETECTED BLAZARS

This paper presents light curves as well as the first systematic characterization of variability of the 106 objects in the high-confidence Fermi Large Area Telescope Bright AGN Sample (LBAS). Weekly light curves of this sample, obtained during the first 11 months of the Fermi survey (2008 August 4-2009 July 4), are tested for variability and their properties are quantified through autocorrelation function and structure function analysis. For the brightest sources, 3 or 4 day binned light curves are extracted in order to determine power density spectra (PDSs) and to fit the temporal structure of major flares. More than 50% of the sources are found to be variable with high significance, where high states do not exceed 1/4 of the total observation range. Variation amplitudes are larger for flat spectrum radio quasars and low/intermediate synchrotron frequency peaked BL Lac objects. Autocorrelation timescales derived from weekly light curves vary from four to a dozen of weeks. Variable sources of the sample have weekly and 3-4 day bin light curves that can be described by 1/f {sup {alpha}} PDS, and show two kinds of gamma-ray variability: (1) rather constant baseline with sporadic flaring activity characterized by flatter PDS slopes resembling flickering and red noise with occasional intermittence and (2)-measured for a few blazars showing strong activity-complex and structured temporal profiles characterized by long-term memory and steeper PDS slopes, reflecting a random walk underlying mechanism. The average slope of the PDS of the brightest 22 FSRQs and of the 6 brightest BL Lacs is 1.5 and 1.7, respectively. The study of temporal profiles of well-resolved flares observed in the 10 brightest LBAS sources shows that they generally have symmetric profiles and that their total duration vary between 10 and 100 days. Results presented here can assist in source class recognition for unidentified sources and can serve as reference for more detailed analysis of the brightest gamma-ray blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quasar classification using color and variability

We conduct a pilot investigation to determine the optimal combination of color and variability information to identify quasars in current and future multi-epoch optical surveys. We use a Bayesian quasar selection algorithm to identify 35,820 type 1 quasar candidates in a 239 deg{sup 2} field of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, using a combination of optical photometry and variability. Color analysis is performed on 5-band single- and multi-epoch SDSS optical photometry to a depth of r∼22.4. From these data, variability parameters are calculated by fitting the structure function of each object in each band with a power-law model using 10 to >100 observations over timescales from ∼1 day to ∼8 years. Selection was based on a training sample of 13,221 spectroscopically confirmed type-1 quasars, largely from the SDSS. Using variability alone, colors alone, and combining variability and colors we achieve 91%, 93%, and 97% quasar completeness and 98%, 98%, and 97% efficiency, respectively, with particular improvement in the selection of quasars at 2.7<z<3.5 where quasars and stars have similar optical colors. The 22,867 quasar candidates that are not spectroscopically confirmed reach a depth of i∼22.0; 21,876 (95.7%) are dimmer than coadded i-band magnitude of 19.9, the cutoff for spectroscopic follow-up for SDSS on Stripe 82. Brighter than 19.9, we find 5.7% more quasar candidates without confirming spectra in sky regions otherwise considered complete. The resulting quasar sample has sufficient purity (and statistically correctable incompleteness) to produce a luminosity function comparable to those determined by spectroscopic investigations. We discuss improvements that can be made to the process in preparation for performing similar photometric selection and science on data from post-SDSS sky surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

IMPROVED VARIABLE STAR SEARCH IN LARGE PHOTOMETRIC DATA SETS: NEW VARIABLES IN CoRoT FIELD LRa02 DETECTED BY BEST II

The CoRoT field LRa02 has been observed with the Berlin Exoplanet Search Telescope II (BEST II) during the southern summer 2007/2008. A first analysis of stellar variability led to the publication of 345 newly discovered variable stars. Now, a deeper analysis of this data set was used to optimize the variability search procedure. Several methods and parameters have been tested in order to improve the selection process compared to the widely used J index for variability ranking. This paper describes an empirical approach to treat systematic trends in photometric data based upon the analysis of variance statistics that can significantly decrease the rate of false detections. Finally, the process of reanalysis and method improvement has virtually doubled the number of variable stars compared to the first analysis by Kabath et al. A supplementary catalog of 272 previously unknown periodic variables plus 52 stars with suspected variability is presented. Improved ephemerides are given for 19 known variables in the field. In addition, the BEST II results are compared with CoRoT data and its automatic variability classification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

CHARACTERIZING THE OPTICAL VARIABILITY OF BRIGHT BLAZARS: VARIABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF FERMI ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

We investigate the use of optical photometric variability to select and identify blazars in large-scale time-domain surveys, in part to aid in the identification of blazar counterparts to the {approx}30% of {gamma}-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog still lacking reliable associations. Using data from the optical LINEAR asteroid survey, we characterize the optical variability of blazars by fitting a damped random walk model to individual light curves with two main model parameters, the characteristic timescales of variability {tau}, and driving amplitudes on short timescales {sigma}-circumflex. Imposing cuts on minimum {tau} and {sigma}-circumflex allows for blazar selection with high efficiency E and completeness C. To test the efficacy of this approach, we apply this method to optically variable LINEAR objects that fall within the several-arcminute error ellipses of {gamma}-ray sources in the Fermi 2FGL catalog. Despite the extreme stellar contamination at the shallow depth of the LINEAR survey, we are able to recover previously associated optical counterparts to Fermi active galactic nuclei with E {>=} 88% and C = 88% in Fermi 95% confidence error ellipses having semimajor axis r < 8'. We find that the suggested radio counterpart to Fermi source 2FGL J1649.6+5238 has optical variability consistent with other {gamma}-ray blazars and is likely to be the {gamma}-ray source. Our results suggest that the variability of the non-thermal jet emission in blazars is stochastic in nature, with unique variability properties due to the effects of relativistic beaming. After correcting for beaming, we estimate that the characteristic timescale of blazar variability is {approx}3 years in the rest frame of the jet, in contrast with the {approx}320 day disk flux timescale observed in quasars. The variability-based selection method presented will be useful for blazar identification in time-domain optical surveys and is also a probe of jet physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
DOE OSTI2010

A NEW EXTENSIVE CATALOG OF OPTICALLY VARIABLE ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THE GOODS FIELDS AND A NEW STATISTICAL APPROACH TO VARIABILITY SELECTION

Variability is a property shared by practically all active galactic nuclei (AGNs). This makes variability selection a possible technique for identifying AGNs. Given that variability selection makes no prior assumption about spectral properties, it is a powerful technique for detecting both low-luminosity AGNs in which the host galaxy emission is dominating and AGNs with unusual spectral properties. In this paper, we will discuss and test different statistical methods for the detection of variability in sparsely sampled data that allow full control over the false positive rates. We will apply these methods to the GOODS North and South fields and present a catalog of variable sources in the z band in both GOODS fields. Out of the 11,931 objects checked, we find 155 variable sources at a significance level of 99.9%, corresponding to about 1.3% of all objects. After rejection of stars and supernovae, 139 variability-selected AGNs remain. Their magnitudes reach down as faint as 25.5 mag in z. Spectroscopic redshifts are available for 22 of the variability-selected AGNs, ranging from 0.046 to 3.7. The absolute magnitudes in the rest-frame z band range from {approx}-18 to -24, reaching substantially fainter than the typical luminosities probed by traditional X-ray and spectroscopic AGN selection in these fields. Therefore, this is a powerful technique for future exploration of the evolution of the faint end of the AGN luminosity function up to high redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel Transformer with Variable Leakage and Magnetizing Inductances

This paper introduces the concept of a novel variable inductance transformer (VIT) whose leakage and magnetizing inductances can be varied dynamically and independently to aid the advancement of research in isolated power electronic converters. In this transformer, the leakage inductance can be varied by varying the length of overlap between the primary and secondary windings, while the magnetizing inductance can be varied by varying the air gap between the core legs. Individual controls for the two inductances ensure that one can be varied independent of the other, as needed to satisfy different power conversion objectives. In this paper, the analytical models of the variable leakage and magnetizing inductances are presented. Analytical results are compared with those obtained from Finite Element Method (FEM) and an experimental prototype of a VIT. Analytical solutions of the variable leakage inductance present an error of less than 2.35 % when compared to FEM solutions, while the analytical solutions of the variable magnetizing inductance present a maximum error of 1.82 % when compared to experimental measurements.

image method, leakage inductance, magnetizing indu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Periodic Variable Stars and Eclipsing Binary Systems with Long-term Las Cumbres Observatory Photometric Monitoring of ZTF J0139+5245

We present the results of our search for variable stars using the long-term Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) monitoring of white dwarf ZTF J0139+5245 with the two 1.0 m telescope nodes located at McDonald Observatory using the Sinistro imaging instrument. In this search, we find 38 variable sources, of which 27 are newly discovered or newly classified (71%) based on comparisons with previously published catalogs, thereby increasing the number of detections in the field of view under consideration by a factor of ≈2.5. We find that the improved photometric precision per exposure due to longer exposure time for LCO images combined with the greater time sampling of LCO photometry enables us to increase the total number of detections in this field of view. Each LCO image covers a field of view of 26' × 26' and observes a region close to the Galactic plane (b = -9.°4) abundant in stars with an average stellar density of ≈8 arcmin{sup -2}. We perform aperture photometry and Fourier analysis on over 2000 stars across 1560 LCO images spanning 537 days to find 28 candidate BY Draconis variables, three candidate eclipsing binaries of type EA, and seven candidate eclipsing binaries of type EW. In assigning preliminary classifications to our detections, we demonstrate the applicability of the Gaia color–magnitude diagram as a powerful classification tool for variable-star studies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Taiwanese-American occultation survey project stellar variability. III. Detection of 58 new variable stars

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey project is designed for the detection of stellar occultations by small-size Kuiper Belt Objects, and it has monitored selected fields along the ecliptic plane by using four telescopes with a 3 deg{sup 2} field of view on the sky since 2005. We have analyzed data accumulated during 2005-2012 to detect variable stars. Sixteen fields with observations of more than 100 epochs were examined. We recovered 85 variables among a total of 158 known variable stars in these 16 fields. Most of the unrecovered variables are located in the fields observed less frequently. We also detected 58 variable stars which are not listed in the International Variable Star Index of the American Association of Variable Star Observers. These variable stars are classified as 3 RR Lyrae, 4 Cepheid, 1 δ Scuti, 5 Mira, 15 semi-regular, and 27 eclipsing binaries based on the periodicity and the profile of the light curves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Can I/O Variability Be Reduced on QoS-Less HPC Storage Systems?

For a production high-performance computing (HPC) system, where storage devices are shared between multiple applications and managed in a best effort manner, I/O contention is often a major problem. In this paper, we propose a balanced messaging-based re-routing in conjunction with throttling at the middleware level. This work tackles two key challenges that have not been fully resolved in the past: whether I/O variability can be reduced on a QoS-less HPC storage system, and how to design a runtime scheduling system that can scale up to a large amount of cores. The proposed scheme uses a two-level messaging system to re-route I/O requests to a less congested storage location so that write performance is improved, while limiting the impact on read by throttling re-routing. An analytical model is derived to guide the setup of optimal throttling factor. We thoroughly analyze the virtual messaging layer overhead and explore whether the in-transit buffering is effective in managing I/O variability. Contrary to the intuition, in-transit buffer cannot completely solve the problem. It can reduce the absolute variability but not the relative variability. The proposed scheme is verified against a synthetic benchmark as well as being used by production applications.

Huang, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2016

Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: Uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin (WRB), the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956-1990) and human-impacted period (1991-2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.

runoff change, uncertainty assessment, monthly wat↗
DOE OSTI2018

Inter-annual variability of net and gross ecosystem carbon fluxes: A review

As the lifetime of regional flux networks approach twenty years, there is a growing number of papers that have published long term records (5 years or more) of net carbon fluxes between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Unanswered questions from this body of work are: 1) how variable are carbon fluxes on a year to year basis?; 2) what are the biophysical factors that may cause interannual variability and/or temporal trends in carbon fluxes?; and 3) how does the biophysical control on this carbon flux variability differ by climate and ecological spaces? To address these questions, we surveyed published data from 59 sites that reported on five or more years of continuous measurements, yielding 544 site-years of data. We found that the standard deviation of the interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon exchange (162 gC m -2 y -1 ) is large relative to its population mean (-200 gC m -2 y -1 ). Broad-leaved evergreen forests and crops experienced the greatest absolute variability in interannual net carbon exchange (greater than ±300 gC m -2 y -1 ) and boreal evergreen forests and maritime wetlands were among the least variable (less than ±40 gC m -2 y -1 ). A disproportionate fraction of the yearly variability in net ecosystem exchange was associated with biophysical factors that modulated ecosystem photosynthesis rather than ecosystem respiration. Yet, there was appreciable and statistically significant covariance between ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration. Consequently, biophysical conditions that conspired to increase ecosystem photosynthesis to from one year to the next were associated with an increase in ecosystem respiration, and vice versa; on average, the year to year change in respiration was 40% as large as the year to year change in photosynthesis. The analysis also identified sets of ecosystems that are on the verge of switching from being carbon sinks to carbon sources. These include sites in the Arctic tundra, the evergreen forests in the Pacific northwest and some grasslands, where year to year changes in respiration are outpacing those in photosynthesis. While a select set of climatic and ecological factors (e.g. light, rainfall, temperature, phenology) played direct and indirect roles on this variability, their impact differed conditionally, as well as by climate and ecological spaces. For example, rainfall had both positive and negative effects. Deficient rainfall caused a physiological decline in photosynthesis in temperate and semi-arid regions. Too much rain, in the humid tropics, limited photosynthesis by limiting light. In peatlands and tundra, excess precipitation limited ecosystem respiration when it raised the water table to the surface. For deciduous forests, warmer temperatures lengthened the growing season, increasing photosynthesis, but this effect also increased soil respiration. Finally, statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the detection limit of trends; we computed the confidence intervals of trends in multi-year carbon fluxes that need to be resolved to conclude whether the differences are to be attributed to randomness or biophysical forcings. Ongoing studies and reports on interannual variations need to consider the role of the duration of the time series on random errors when quantifying potential trends and extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗