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DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparison of Building Height Products at a Global Level

The built environment continues to expand due to increasing human populations with some projections indicating additional growth of 2.5 billion persons by 2050. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and information on building height and urban morphology in general can help to better understand and address a host of development and urban planning issues including energy consumption, urbanization, population dynamics, urban heat islands, environmental degradation, and others. To date, several approaches have been developed to address the need for mapping building height at scale. These approaches can be grouped into two main categories: 1) directly measure height from remote sensing products or 2) indirectly estimate height from footprint morphology features at the building-by-building level. Due to a number of these global height datasets now being available for consumption and use across domains, there is a critical need to understand the differences displayed between these products and how the use of these may influence the outcome when applied. In this analysis, we compare and evaluate 5 global building height datasets: Global Human Settlement, World Settlement Footprint 3D, Global Building Morphology dataset, three-dimensional Global Building Footprints, and an approach developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Our analysis shows that, across 5 cities at a global scale with high-quality building height reference data, the approach developed by ORNL of inferring height at the building-by-building level is more accurate and consistent. This was evidenced by the ORNL product improving upon the baseline in all 5 cities, the only product to do so. These findings will aid researchers in choosing a global building height product that best meets their needs and provides global availability, consistency, and accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Urban Pluvial Frequency Flooding Hotspots Using the Topographic Control Index and Remote Sensing Radar Images for Early Warning Systems

Identifying areas that frequently experience post-rainfall ponding is essential for effective flood mitigation and planning. This study integrates Sentinel-1 radar imagery and the Topographic Control Index (TCI) to identify 378 flood-prone urban depressions in Beaumont, Texas. Out of 159 major rainfall events, only six had Sentinel-1 radar imagery acquired within six hours of peak rainfall, and these were used to generate the flood frequency map; the ground-based flood sensor data were used to verify that these selected events corresponded to actual peak rainfall and to validate radar-detected water pixels. Validation results showed 100% precision, 70.87% recall, an F1-score of 82.95%, and 71.32% overall accuracy. Approximately 84% of medium-to-high TCI depressions overlapped with Beaumont’s two-year inundation map, confirming a strong relationship between TCI and observed flooding. A total of 124 depressions retained significant water, and after excluding 25 engineered detention ponds, 99 natural depressions remained flood vulnerable. Among these, 74 depressions with medium or high TCI were identified as the highest-priority nuisance flooding hotspots. The results demonstrate that combining TCI with radar imagery provides a reliable and cost-effective approach for identifying areas prone to frequent urban ponding. This framework supports practical decision-making for drainage improvements, hotspot identification, and early-warning system development in urban flood-prone regions.

Sentinel-1 radar imagery↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stream Chemistry, Synoptic Surveys, East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed, TN, USA; April 2023 to February 2025

Impacts of developed land cover on stream chemistry can be difficult to discern from natural variability, particularly in carbonate watersheds where weathering of urban infrastructure and lithology generate similar signatures. We evaluated how spatial patterns of stream chemistry varied across perennial and non-perennial tributaries spanning an urban-to-forested gradient in a mid-order, carbonate-dominated watershed. This data package contains a processed and compiled summary of stream chemistry and properties obtained from 12 synoptic surveys of 54 stream sites across the East Fork Poplar Creek watershed located near Oak Ridge, TN, United States. The sites include non-perennial tributaries, perennial tributaries, and the main stem and span forested to urban (highly developed) land cover gradients. The data package includes the processed and flagged chemical data (WaDE_SynopticSummary_FinalChemistry), metadata describing data flagging and analysis (WaDE_SynopticSummary_Metadata), information about each site and its contributing subcatchment (WaDE_SynopticSummary_SiteInformation), and a comparison of instrument and field detection limits used to determine method detection limits for the study (WaDE_SynopticSummary_DetectionLimitComparison). Stream chemistry includes stream parameters measured in situ using multiparameter probes (dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, temperature) and solutes including nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, soluble reactive phosphorus), dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon, major cations (calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium), major anions (chloride, sulfate), and a broad suite of minor and trace elements.

EARTH SCIENCE > TERRESTRIAL HYDROSPHERE > SURFACE ↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-Based Analytics and Energy Modeling Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

Developing location-specific district energy models is essential for understanding energy patterns and supporting efficient management and planning decisions. However, accurately characterizing these models remains challenging due to gaps in building characteristics and labor-intensive traditional modeling workflows. To address these challenges, we develop an AI-based framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up building energy data to automate urban energy model characterization. The framework trains multimodal deep learning models using heterogeneous ResStockTM datasets to infer missing building characteristics from varying levels of known information and generate simulation-ready inputs for district-scale energy modeling. It also employs a conditioning-based injection approach to generate ”what-if” scenarios, enabling users to explore retrofit, efficiency, and technology-upgrade pathways. Integrated within URBANoptTM, a bottom-up district energy modeling platform for simulating co-located buildings, the framework infers detailed building-level inputs required for bottom-up simulations. Both localized and generalized AI models are developed to learn relationships across categorical, numerical, and time-series data, enabling reconstruction of missing attributes and generation of targeted upgrade scenarios. We demonstrate this methodology on a residential neighborhood in Baltimore, MD, assessing internal consistency against ResStock reference data and URBANopt simulation, and comparing selected attributes against real-world building characteristics. Results show strong overall predictive accuracy in data completion and scenario generation, with localized and generalized models offering complementary trade-offs between precision and scalability. Overall, our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable framework for urban building energy characterization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing suburban soil and microbial properties along a soil age chronosequence

Abstract Rapid urbanization is drastically altering ecosystem processes in landscapes around the world. In particular, suburban residential neighborhoods comprise novel ecosystems with water and nutrient inputs that differ greatly from the surrounding land area. These impacts generate concern over the sustainability of urban ecosystems, especially whether they will be characterized by net carbon gain or loss over time. To address this knowledge gap, we established a chronosequence of residential yards in Southern California to test how urban soils change after development. We predicted that urbanized soils would experience shifts in physical characteristics and microbial function over time consistent with ecological succession theory, but residential soils would maintain novel moisture and nutrient regimes compared to undeveloped soils, never “recovering” to a pre‐developed state. We compared different vegetation types to quantify impacts of homeowner landscaping choices and characterized yard soils and their microbial communities. We found that yard soils were nutrient‐ and moisture‐enriched compared to an adjacent undeveloped ecosystem, and turfgrass was associated with higher levels of water and nitrogen. Despite high respiration rates, yard soils accumulated carbon and nitrogen over time. We conclude that suburban residential soils comprise dynamic and heterogeneous ecosystems that are highly influenced by landscaping choices and management practices, and warrant closer study at small management‐relevant scales.

Suratt, Andie [Department of Ecology and Evolution↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable and Cost-Effective Solution to the U.S. Housing Crisis: A Case Study on Locally Manufactured Modular Multifamily Housing

This case study assesses waste management efficiencies in modular buildings compared to traditional construction methods. We focus on the modular 1-bedroom Model/Z unit by Model Z Modular, LLC. As part of the collaboration between Model Z Modular and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyzed waste metrics from design through construction, contrasting these findings against conventional stick-built and site-built multifamily buildings. The Model/Z unit is part of a strategic effort to address affordable housing shortages in South Los Angeles, where household income challenges are pronounced. The unit is produced in a state-of-the-art 150,000 sq. ft. modular manufacturing facility located within the city it is serving, and has so far supported the production of over 1,500 affordable housing units. Model/Z units have been used in projects with as many as 195 units, achieving large economies of scale and time. Our analysis demonstrates that modular construction reduces waste compared to traditional methods. This reduction is achieved through precise prefabrication techniques, the implementation of new framing methods, the concentration of workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics, which optimize material use and greatly reduce on-site handling. Additionally, local manufacturing minimizes transportation needs, improving overall project efficiency. The Model/Z unit exemplifies a scalable solution for enhancing housing affordability by optimizing resource utilization and minimizing associated costs. These methods support the delivery of high-quality units at reduced expenses, addressing critical urban housing shortages effectively. This case study underscores Model Z Modular's commitment to producing affordable, quality housing while fostering economic opportunities through job creation and training programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI-Driven Frameworks for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

We develop AI-driven frameworks to characterize urban energy systems with the goal of transforming planning by reducing the labor of model generation, scaling scenario exploration, and improving accuracy for localized analysis. The approach integrates top-down and bottom-up data to train different AI models that predict missing information and generate inputs and targeted scenarios for district-scale models. The result is a scalable framework that provides actionable insights for reliable and efficient planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Digital Twin for U.S. Cities

Over 50 participants—including national laboratory researchers, academic scholars, industry representatives, and stakeholders from the City of Chicago—convened in person and online to assess the readiness and potential of an Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Digital Twin (AIDT) for urban systems, with the Greater Chicago area serving as the benchmark location. The workshop underscored that the Chicago Urban Integrated Field Laboratory provides an unparalleled testbed for developing and validating urban DTs—combining dense, multiscale observations, advanced physics-based and AI modeling capabilities, and strong stakeholder and industry engagement. Discussions highlighted available datasets, AI architectures for high resolution, multipurpose urban DTs, key applications, and near- and long-term priorities for scaling this framework within Chicago and to other U.S. and global cities.

AIDT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Community engagement in the development of bioenergy projects from cellulosic urban waste feedstock in Hawaii for sustainable aviation fuel

The purpose of the research project was to reveal the perceptions of residents and communities of the City and County of Honolulu concerning bioenergy projects, feedstock, and sustainable aviation fuel. The perception study was conducted via community-scale surveys, interviews, and town meetings to gather feedback on the preliminary design of a proposed bioenergy project, including feedstock choice and the need for sustainable aviation fuel in Hawaii. Residents on the west side of Oahu were targeted due to their proximity to the proposed plant site location. Findings from this study aim to identify resident perceptions, understanding, and desire for bioenergy projects and new infrastructure to, improve the energy efficiency and sustainability of Hawaiian islands. While Hawaii has created policies and mandates to move toward 100% renewable energy sources by 2045, the focus has been predominately on renewable electricity, largely overlooking other sustainable energy options such as sustainable aviation fuel. There is a lack of research on the community engagement and perceptions of Hawaiian residents on bioenergy projects and sustainable aviation fuel, contributing to the low adoption of bioenergy projects on the islands. Insights from this study aim to add literature on the need for community engagement in the design process, the importance of accepting new sustainable infrastructure, and the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

U-Surf: a global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling

High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024).

Cheng, Yifan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaig↗

DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Proposed Algorithm for Placement and Sizing of Generation and Storage Stations in Urban Environments

The placement of generation and storage stations (GSSs) in distribution grids has been extensively investigated. Most traditional methods are applicable to rural or homogeneous environments and do not account for external restrictions on generation placement in urban or semi-urban environments. In this article, we propose a method for generation placement considering externality constraints. New utility-scale generation in distribution grids potentially occupies footprint and interferes in areas with existing infrastructure with architectural, historical, or touristic value. Urban environments are often regulated by municipal legislation. The placement of utility-scale generation in urban landscapes is economically and physically restricted by such externalities, and existing methods for generation placement in distribution grids based on technical optimization fail to account for this important nuance. The proposed algorithm flexibly adapts to changes in government energy policies and priorities. The selection of the type of generation suitable for the power grid is left to the preference of external high-level stakeholders, such as urban planners, industry development leaders, and energy policymakers. The proposed algorithm is a unique tool for determining the placement and sizing of generation in realistic conditions in distribution grids; it is adaptable to urban externalities and sensitive to stakeholder preferences.

generation and storage station placement↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Baltimore MD↗

DOE OSTI2025

An approach to urban waterway assessment using holistic values and reciprocity

Current aquatic ecosystem assessment methods and tools often focus on physical, chemical, and biological indicators of ecosystem health. This approach to ecosystem assessment is not always straightforward to execute in urban environments and ignores potential connectivity between social and environmental outcomes. During a workshop at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology in Brisbane, Australia in 2023 (SUSE6), we developed an approach to urban aquatic ecosystem assessment that incorporates a holistic perspective. Specifically, our approach considers both environmental (biological, chemical, and physical integrity) and social (community connection, human safety, resource use) values of urban waterways. This approach is inclusive of Indigenous perspectives, such as the concept of reciprocity, whereby consideration of both the environment and society leads to a healthy ecosystem. Here, to highlight how this holistic assessment approach could be used, we present real-world examples that included assessing both environmental and societal values informed by reciprocity or balanced perspectives. This approach can be broadly applied and adapted to specific aquatic ecosystem conditions and projects, providing an inclusive, community-centered approach for assessing the health of waterways in urban environments.

Indigenous knowledge↗

DOE OSTI2025

Urban morphology from a landscape perspective: How building morphology distribution land models (BMDLM) emulate pattern and process

Urban form (e.g., building morphology such as height or footprint) can be used to predict environmental footprints, such as energy/water consumption and carbon emissions. Although progress has been made in predicting building characteristics to fill gaps in observation or derive 3-D representations, the relationships between morphology and other variables such as land use and population are poorly understood. Understanding these relationships may enable projections for how cities will evolve with landscapes in the future. A suite of random forest models, the Building Morphology Distribution Land Models (BMDLM), was developed to determine how well building morphology for two distinct statistical measures (central tendency and frequency) can be predicted using land use (e.g., zoning) and population at different resolutions. Clark County, Nevada and Los Angeles County, California are explored as case studies. Generally, 1-km models outperformed 30-m models. Frequency distribution models had the best performance, especially in LA County. Frequency models significantly outperformed spatial autocorrelative models using inverse distance weighting (IDW). BMDLM offers a new take on modeling urban form in which generalized landscape patterns are characterized to understand the influence of population and zoning on urban development, as described by urban scaling theory.

Sturtevant, Jillian [Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2026

The birth of a field through a marriage of scales: urban meteorological modeling meets regional climate modeling

Urban meteorological modeling and regional climate modeling developed largely independently, with each discipline addressing different aspects of atmospheric processes across space and time. In this review, I show that urban climate modeling did not arise as a simple scaling extension of urban meteorological modeling or an add-on to regional climate modeling, but instead emerged through the selective inheritance of complementary strengths from its parents after both disciplines reached sufficient methodological maturity. By tracing the parallel evolution of these disciplines, I demonstrate that urban climate modeling inherited the physically explicit treatment of the built environment developed within urban meteorological modeling, and the hierarchical scale translation and climatological framing that matured within regional climate modeling, allowing urban effects to influence climate-relevant outcomes. Building on this synthesis, I propose an objective, and methodologically-grounded definition of urban climate modeling that distinguishes it from urban meteorological modeling. This distinction is increasingly important as urban climate data informs decisions with long-lived societal consequences, and as ambiguity in terminology risks conflating fundamentally different modeling frameworks with distinct physical meaning and decision relevance. In addition to a clarifying definition, this review outlines a research framework for advancing urban climate modeling through scale-aware coupling strategies that preserve physically consistent urban-atmosphere interactions.

regional climate↗