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At least 37 records · Page 2

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal variation in methane ebullition in a temperate hydropower reservoir impacts annualized estimates

Estimates of ebullitive methane (CH4) emissions from reservoirs are highly uncertain, often based on spatial and temporal upscaling from a limited number of sampling sites and periods. While some of these estimates may adjust for seasonal variation in temperature, they rarely account for drawdown and the resulting changes in site depth and the areal extent of the reservoir. In Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA), we conducted monthly sampling of 20 sites over 1 year to capture temporal and spatial variation in CH4 ebullition. We then compared various approaches for obtaining annualized, whole-reservoir ebullition estimates. CH4 ebullition fluxes were zero-inflated and highly skewed, with fluxes rising appreciably above zero in July and peaking in autumn. Estimates that did not account for drawdown overestimated annualized rates by 20%, though with high uncertainty. Seasonal variability and hotspots strongly influence annualized ebullition estimates and are important to account for in inventories and global upscaling.

Cardall, Anna [Brigham Young University]↗

The impact of capillary heterogeneity on CO 2 flow and trapping across scales

Capillary heterogeneity has been identified over the last decade as a key control on subsurface CO 2 flow behavior during geological CO 2 sequestration. These heterogeneities can be formed in all sedimentary rocks, ranging from slight variations in the sand grain sizes to extensive sequences of interbedded sands, shales, and limestones. Capillary heterogeneity has been largely, although not entirely, overlooked in subsurface flow modeling because it is assumed to only directly influence fluid redistribution over scales of centimeters to meters. However, even small-scale fluid movements can result in dramatic impacts on the mobility and trapping of the CO 2 over kilometers. Therefore, neglecting capillary heterogeneity at multiple scales could potentially lead to errors in modeling and predicting field-scale plume migration. In this review paper, we aim to provide a consistent overview to (1) establish that capillary heterogeneity can have a major impact on CO 2 plume migration, (2) establish the respective length scales at which capillary heterogeneity matters, and (3) provide guidance for numerical modeling. This review covers pertinent literature and extracts key observations from the core to the field scales. Experimental studies have shown that millimeter-decimeter scale capillary heterogeneity can cause the so-called capillary heterogeneity trapping in addition to pore-scale residual trapping. Even at such a small scale, capillary heterogeneity can already lead to complex upscaled constitutive relationships, such as flow-rate dependent and anisotropic relative permeability, which affects field-scale CO 2 migration even when field-scale heterogeneities are present. Under gravity-dominated flow regimes, centimeter-meter scale capillary heterogeneity can entrap a significant amount of CO 2 at field scale, not just after imbibition but also during drainage. In certain cases, the presence of capillary heterogeneity can even completely stop the vertical movement of the CO 2 plume, hence greatly reducing leakage risks. At meter-kilometer scale, the influence of capillary heterogeneity is more pronounced and can hinder or redirect CO 2 migration in both lateral and vertical directions. The impact of capillary heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales poses a great challenge in modeling CO 2 migration at field scale, because it is practically impossible to build a field-scale earth model with grid blocks at millimeter scale. We recommend a hierarchical modeling approach to address this challenge. At field scale, earth models are built to capture geological features and heterogeneities in high but still practical grid resolutions. For each facies or rock type of the field-scale model, high- resolution meter-scale “conceptual” models are built with millimeter-scale grid blocks to capture representative fine-scale bedding geometries and heterogeneities in various environments of deposition, bridging the gap from subcore scale to the size of a field-scale simulation grid block. Upscaling is then used to preserve the smaller-scale flow dynamics of various rock types in field-scale simulations. Here, future work is needed to (1) refine, improve, and validate the hierarchical modeling approach; (2) build libraries of fine-scale bedding models for facies in various environments of deposition; (3) quantify multiscale capillary heterogeneity effects under subsurface uncertainties; (4) gain learning from different storage formations; and (5) establish best practices that balance accuracy and computational speed.

Capillary heterogeneity↗

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO 2 Sink and CH 4 and N 2 O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods

Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present-day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling and process-based models) and top-down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom-up approaches estimate higher land-to-atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches show a sink of CO 2 in natural ecosystems (bottom-up: -29 (-709, 455), top-down: -587 (-862, -312) Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 ) and sources of CH 4 (bottom-up: 38 (22, 53), top-down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH 4 -C y -1 ) and N 2 O (bottom-up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top-down: 0.09 (-0.19, 0.37) Tg N 2 O-N yr -1 ). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP-100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP-20), the region is a net GHG source because CH 4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO 2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO 2 emissions as well as CH 4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N 2 O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process-based models and the compilation of process-model ensembles for CH 4 and N 2 O. Discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well-distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tardigrade-examples V0.1.0

Tardigrade-examples is a repository of computational workflows that exercise the Tardigrade software package. The Tardigrade software package is an implementation of Eringen’s micromorphic continuum theory with capabilities to support multiscale material modeling. These capabilities include homogenization through the Micromorphic Filter, calibration of micromorphic material models, and macroscale simulation in Tardigrade-MOOSE. This repository investigates continuum upscaling of various direct numerical simulations (DNS) conducted in Abaqus finite element (FE), Ratel FE, and GEOS material point method (MPM) software. Verification of the upscaling workflow is first investigated by considering DNS of trivial stress states for homogeneous materials, results of which indicate that classical continuum behavior is recovered as expected. DNS of heterogeneous materials are then considered.

Allard, Thomas↗

Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data

The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) for Pasoh, Malaysia, Sep 2024

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at the Pasoh Forest Reserve, Malaysia. The Pasoh Forest Reserve is a facility of the Forest Research Institute Malaysia, and contains evergreen lowland dipterocarp forest. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments Tropics (NGEE-Tropics) study areas at Pasoh were established to study how different species respond to climatic variation and soil water availability. Two study areas were chosen representing different topography and species. The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area for 12 focal trees with FloraPulse and sap flux sensors, facilitating estimation of woody biomass and leaf area to allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data to the tree-level. Scan positions were not selected to provide consistent data for non-focal trees with the study areas. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Terrestrial laser scanning data (Levels 0 and 1) from Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project sites, Knoxville, Tennessee, Jul 2024 - Jul 2025

This data package contains data from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at five urban park sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. All parks include open-grown and/or closed-canopy trees and mixed nearby land use. These study sites were established as part of the Urban Biogeochemistry Pilot Project, which has an overall goal of better understanding how hydrobiogeochemical cycling is altered within the human environment. These five sites represent a gradient of urbanization, and were instrumented to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycling (e.g., soil moisture, soil physical properties and biogeochemistry, tree transpiration, species type). The TLS data archived here were collected to provide detailed, three-dimensional information about forest structure. Specifically, data were collected to allow tree- and stand-level characterization of woody structure and leaf area. TLS scans were placed to capture the area around trees with sap flow sensors, and as much of a 50 m radius area around the meteorological station as possible given site property limits. Derived products will allow upscaling of water content and transpiration data. This data package contains the following data: - High-level files document further details of the campaign and data package: 1_CampaignSummary.csv provides details about the campaign and study site, 2_ScanAreasDetail.csv provides details about each separate scan area (groups of scans post-processed into a single point cloud), 3_TerrestrialLidarSensor.csv provides further technical details about the Riegl VZ-400i TLS sensor, TLS_CSV_dd.csv is a CSV Data Dictionary providing information about the fields in CSV files following the ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting Format, TLS_flmd.csv is a File Level Metadata file providing information about each file in the data package following the ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata Reporting Format, and README.txt is a text file describing the overall project and file structure. - Level 0 data are the raw data (.PROJ folders) as recorded by the Riegl VZ-400i TLS instrument before scan co-registration and post-processing with the Riegl's proprietary RiSCAN PRO software, which requires a license. - Level 1 data contain post-processed, co-registered data from each scan area. The "PointClouds" folder for each scan area contains a .las file with 1 cm resolution point cloud data exported from RiSCAN PRO. These are the main files likely to be of interest to most users and can be further processed with any software capable of manipulating .las files (e.g. Python, R CloudCompare). The "Project Information" folder contains log files from post-processing in RiSCAN PRO that may be of interest to users who want to see detailed records of post-processing, including all PDF reports generated by RiSCAN PRO. The "ScanPositions" folder contains information about the final position of all TLS scans, after post-processing, in multiple formats. The file ScanPositions_*.csv provides final geo-referenced scan positions, and the file SOP_backup_*.csv can be used in RiSCAN PRO to restore the co-registered scan positions if users wish to re-process raw data (Level 0 .PROJ folders) with RiSCAN PRO software (e.g., subsample to a different resolution, exclude a certain scan position, or apply different filters on reflectance or deviation values) without redoing time-consuming co-registration steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computational Modeling of Molten Salt Infiltration and Oxidation in Nuclear Graphite

Graphite is utilized as a moderator and reflector in advanced nuclear reactor designs due to its high thermal conductivity, neutron moderation properties, and resistance to radiation damage. However, its longterm performance and reliability are challenged by degradation mechanisms such as molten salt infiltration in molten salt reactors (MSRs) and oxidation in gas-cooled reactors (GCRs). These mechanisms can compromise the structural integrity and operational lifetime of graphite components, necessitating a more detailed assessment of their physical behavior. This report focuses on the development of computational models for molten salt infiltration and oxidation of graphite to aid the design and performance analysis of graphite components. For molten salt infiltration, a computational framework is developed that couples incompressible Navier-Stokes and phase-field model to simulate the penetration of molten salt into graphite?s interconnected pore structure. Initial model verification is performed using two-phase flows in two dimensions, demonstrating the models ability to capture fundamental physical behavior and agree with analytical solution. This framework is then applied to a realistic IG110 nuclear graphite , where a computed tomography extracted pore geometry is used to analyse the infiltration behavior of FLiNaK molten salt. This model provides insights into how the microstructure and other relevant parameters influence the transport pathways of molten salt into graphite, potentially offering a means to rapidly evaluate a graphite grade?s resistance to infiltration. For oxidation, the report details pore-scale mass and heat transport models, describing the diffusion of gases, reaction kinetics, and thermal effects. Additionally, this report highlights inconsistencies in the existing volume-averaged macroscopic model, particularly in upscaling of reaction kinetics and flux terms, and surface to volume transformations. These inconsistencies suggest that current formulations may not accurately capture the experimentally observed graphite oxidation process, highlighting the need for improved model development. This work advances the development of physics-based computational models for graphite degradation, contributing to improved predictive models for next-generation nuclear reactor designs. Future efforts will focus on refining the infiltration model to address non-physical behaviors and enhance its robustness. Additionally, for oxidation, further studies will employ the principles of volume averaging to rigorously derive the upscaled equations, potentially in collaboration with subject matter experts.

Computational Modeling of Molten Salt Infiltration↗

Scaling the Offshore Wind Industry and Optimizing Turbine Size

NYSERDA's Offshore Wind team is hosting an educational webinar series to connect the public with independent experts in key topics in offshore wind, including wind farm technologies, development practices, regulatory processes, and research initiatives. The presentation focuses on the challenges and opportunities of wind turbine upscaling in the global offshore wind market place. It addresses key concerns about risks of new technology and the opportunity cost of increasing turbine size too rapidly.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of a practical approach for field scale moisture flow modeling in heterogeneous media at a semiarid site

Abstract A practical approach for modeling field‐scale moisture flow in a highly heterogeneous unsaturated medium is described in this study. The validity of this approach is demonstrated through comparison of the numerical simulations with field observations at a semiarid site located in southcentral Washington State. The methodology is based on upscaling the core scale hydraulic properties and combining power‐law and tensorial connectivity‐tortuosity (PA‐TCT) approaches to derive macroscopic anisotropy parameters for each hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) identified in the field. Each heterogeneous HSU is approximated by an equivalent homogeneous medium (EHM) model for which PA‐TCT parameters are used in the flow simulations. The available field data on moisture content and matric potential are compared with steady‐state flow simulations based on the mean form of Richards' equation. While the homogenization or averaging of heterogeneities, embedded in the EHM modeling approximation, cannot capture all of the field‐scale variability, the simulated steady‐state moisture and matric potential profiles capture well the central tendency of the field data. This approach is deemed practical for assessing the fate and transport of contaminants in highly heterogeneous unsaturated media at the transport scale of hundreds of meters.

Khaleel, Raziuddin↗