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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty analysis for VERA problem 2 using the cell-code Condor v2.8.05

Condor is a cell-level neutronic calculation code that applies multi-group collision probabilities with heterogeneous response coupling method within generic geometry configurations. Under the Condor's code continuous development, the incorporation of up-to-date methodologies and state-of-the-art practices in reactor analysis represents a driving force. In this work, the capabilities of Condor v2.8.05 to develop an uncertainty analysis for realistic PWR-kind fuel assemblies are studied. The Total Monte Carlo approach is applied to quantify the impact of fabrication tolerances in the code's results for reactivity and power distributions, by means of randomly sampled input values using the VERA problem 2 as basis. The VERA problem 2 proposes a series of Westinghouse 2D 17 x 17-type fuel lattices, to be calculated reflected at beginning-of-life without Xe. The configurations correspond to a modern PWR. Selected neutronic parameters from Condor runs are thus analyzed in terms of the observed spread as well as the obtained distributions for the randomly perturbed cases, showing the capability of the code to handle the required input data, as well as its ability to provide valuable insights regarding uncertainty quantification.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Molten Salt Spreading and Heat Transfer using MELTSPREAD – An Uncertainty Analysis

This report summarizes spreading and heat transfer results for molten salt pouring onto a flat stainless steel substrate that were calculated using MELTSPREAD to gain insight into bulk salt behavior during a molten salt spill accident. MELTSPREAD was developed at Argonne to model the one-dimensional flow and freezing behavior of molten corium and is being applied to model molten salts for the first time as part of this work. An uncertainty analysis of thermophysical properties and spill conditions was performed using MELTSPREAD to determine which properties and conditions have the greatest impact on model outcome. The model was run with and without the inclusion of decay heat. Eutectic FLiNaK was used as the salt composition because it is well-characterized and appropriate for model development. Small salt volumes were used for the initial model runs described in this report so that the model results can be compared to the results from ongoing experiments on molten salt spreading and heat transfer currently being conducted at Argonne at a benchtop scale. The spreading of a small volume of FLiNaK (50 mL) was found to be limited by the balance between the molten salt surface tension and gravity and not by freezing for the pour conditions and assumed mechanisms of heat transfer in the model. Heat transfer from the salt was highly inefficient to due to its low thermal conductivity, high heat capacity, and high heat of fusion and varying these properties had no effect on the spreading behavior. Changing the viscosity and density of the salt slightly affected the spreading behavior. Setting the salt surface tension to approximately zero to simulate the salt wetting the substrate had the greatest effect on the spreading behavior and this increased both the spreading velocity and overall spreading area. Including decay heat in the model had a significant effect on the long-term cooling behavior of the salt but had no effect on the overall spreading behavior. Future effort should involve modeling a larger volume of molten salt to represent a reactor case spill scenario because the spreading behavior of large volumes of salt may differ from the small volumes that were the focus of this document.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deploying Intra-hour Uncertainty Analysis Tools to ABB’s GridView - CRADA 445

The quickly-changing generation resource mix in the US grid, with large additions of variable resources, retirements of traditional thermal generation, distributed generation and demand response, are creating new challenges on the traditional operation of both the generation and transmission systems. The ability to perform intra-hour high fidelity production cost modeling (PCM) is needed to allow grid operators and grid planners to integrate high penetration (more than 50%) of variable energy resources, and to make prompt well informed decisions in market operations and planning. In the last decade, PNNL has developed several stand-alone tools to enable grid operators and planners to understand the impact of high variable generation on their systems. These tools have been used is studies such as: (1) Evaluation the benefits of WECC balancing authorities coordination under high variable generation penetration , (2) Benefits of Energy Imbalance Market in the North West Power Pool and (3) Duke Energy and NV Energy solar integration studies. ABB’s GridView is a widely used commercial PCM tool. It is the tool used by WECC and their stakeholders to develop the WECC PCM planning model on bi-annual basis. This proposal is focused on the integrating of PNNL intra-hour uncertainty analysis tools to GridView.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRISO fuel performance analysis: Uncertainty quantification toward optimization

Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a fuel form being considered for potential use in next-generation nuclear reactors (i.e., high-temperature gas-cooled reactors). Though the TRISO fuel manufacturing process has continually advanced in recent years, particle comparisons still reveal statistical variations and uncertainties in terms of geometric configurations and material properties. Given that the physical processes ongoing in TRISO fuel particles during reactor operation are highly correlated with each other, a small degree of uncertainty in one model may lead to significant uncertainty in another. This makes appropriate uncertainty quantification of TRISO fuel particles essential. However, one may wonder about the extent to which the current version of TRISO particles has been optimized, and whether any room remains for further improvements. This paper quantifies TRISO fuel performance model uncertainties that stem from geometric and material data. For this analysis, the BISON code was used, and the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiment served as a reference case. A total of 10 5 calculations was performed for the uncertainty and optimization analysis, altering the geometric and material data within their uncertainty range. Lastly, the optimization potential of TRISO particles is evaluated from a fuel performance perspective.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity in the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis

In this work, the multi-physics coupling of CTF-PARCS for both steady-state and transient simulations is evaluated focusing on the quantification of the importance of the modeling fidelity when applied to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty safety analysis. For the steady-state, a Picard iteration approach is adopted in the coupled code while for the transient an explicit approach has been developed as a first step. The CTF-PARCS coupling is applied to the REA at HFP BOC scenario proposed in the exercise I-2c of LWR-UAM benchmark Phase III. Two different modeling choices are investigated for the nominal calculations. The first consists of including the 3D burnup information in CTF, and the second of modeling the spacers grids in both PARCS and CTF. It is observed that due to the degradation of the fuel thermal conductivity, the 3D burnup inclusion in CTF leads to significant higher centerline temperatures than the base case, with a difference up to 300 K. The spacer grids modeling shows the expected power and temperature decrease in the axial positions of the spacer grids. For the uncertainty quantification study, the multi-physics modeling including the burnup information in CTF is used. The results show that the inserted reactivity has a relative standard deviation of 13.6% mainly attributed to the nuclear data. The maximum linear power has a relative standard deviation of 16.2% due to the nuclear data as well, while the maximum centerline temperature has a relative standard deviation of 3.5% primarily caused by the fuel thermal conductivity. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study Reservoir Productivity Uncertainty Analysis for the Tuscarora Sandstone, Morgantown, WV

This dataset contains figures that summarize the Tuscarora Sandstone core permeability data collected from the Preston 119 well in Preston County, WV, and summary results of a stochastic analysis that was used to estimate reservoir productivity for the currently unexplored Tuscarora Sandstone below Morgantown, West Virginia. Uncertainties in reservoir productivity considered the thickness of the reservoir, rock permeability, and fluid viscosity. A Monte Carlo analysis of these uncertain properties was used to predict reservoir flow productivity for the case of a matrix-dominated reservoir, and a fracture-dominated reservoir. These results are summarized in figures, spreadsheets, and maps.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extension of Complex Refractive Index Measurements to the Near-Infrared for Liquids: Methodology and Uncertainty Analysis

Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PWR spent fuel observables to operational and model parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) observables - decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rate - to operational and model parameters have been performed. A 2D model representing a typical PWR 17x17 UO{sub 2} fuel assembly has been taken as reference. The Serpent code and ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library have been used for the analyses. Relative uncertainty of decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rates due to Monte Carlo counting statistics, as well as the number of fuel pin radial regions required for an accurate characterization of SNF neutron emission, have been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the impact of the homogenization to an average value of the fuel and moderator temperature, boron concentration power and burnup on the prediction of the selected observables. In addition, linear sensitivity coefficients have been calculated. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Experimental Design through Uncertainty Analysis

In this paper, the development of a fission-gas collecting and physical-analysis-enabling instrument was proposed for small-volume determination. Analysis specifications require a design capable of accurately and repeatably determining volumes in the range of 0.07–2.5 mL. This system relies on a series of gas expansions originating from a cylinder with known internal volume. The combined gas law is used to derive the unknown volumes from these expansions. Initial system designs included one of two known volumes, 11.85 ± 0.34 mL and 5.807 ± 0.078 mL, with a manifold volume of 32 mL. Results obtained from modeling this system’s operation showed that 0.07 mL can be determined with a relative expanded uncertainty greater than 300% (k = 2) for a single replicate, which was unacceptable for the proposed experimental design. Initial modeling showed that the volume connecting the known volume and rodlet, i.e., the manifold volume, and the sensitivity of the pressure sensor were key contributors to the expanded uncertainty of the measured rodlet volume. The system’s design limited the available options for pressure sensors, so emphasis was placed on the design of the manifold volume. The final system design reduced the manifold volume to 17 mL. These changes in design, combined with replicate analysis, were able to reduce the relative expanded uncertainty by ±12% (k = 2) for the 0.07 mL volume.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust two-colour pyrometry uncertainty analysis to acquire spatially-resolved measurements

Two-colour pyrometry (2CP) has been used over several decades to study engine-relevant combustion processes, but results are generally regarded as qualitative or semi-quantitative. In many current 2CP systems, large measurement errors are introduced by parallax because the two measured wavelengths are not from the same line of sight. Here this work presents a spatially-resolved 2CP system with the objective of quantifying and reducing measurement uncertainty. An optical setup that eliminates parallax in 2CP is used together with pixel-by-pixel calibration of the camera sensor to increase measurement accuracy. Primary uncertainty terms are identified, and an error propagation analysis is performed to compute uncertainties in the final results of soot temperature, soot concentration parameter, KL, and soot mass. These methodologies are applied to investigate an auto-igniting fuel spray in a constant pressure flow rig at diesel-like conditions of high ambient pressure and temperature. Results show bias uncertainty of around 200 K (≈10%) for temperature and about 40%–60% for KL. High uncertainty was found to occur on the diffusion flame front where both optical thickness and soot concentrations are small. However, these uncertain measurement zones with relatively low soot concentrations contribute minimally to the total soot mass present in the reacting jet during the temporal evolution of the flame.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗