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At least 37 records · Page 2

Prefeasibility Assessment for Solar PV and Storage for Critical Community Facilities in Chernihiv, Ukraine [Slides]

A prefeasibility analysis is performed for integrating solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage at four critical facilities in Chernihiv, Ukraine. The facilities were identified by Chernihiv city officials and include Hospital No. 2, the Maternity Hospital, Secondary School No. 11, and Preschool No. 4. The analyses were performed using NREL's REopt decision-support software tool. The analysis identifies potential capacities for PV and battery energy storage to provide both economic and resilience benefits. The conceptual architecture and estimates of key summary financial and performance metrics are presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Merefa Community Microgrid: Supporting Distributed Energy Resource Deployment in Ukraine

A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. This fact sheet is a summary of a previously published technical report; see NREL/TP-7A40-89527, which includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.

battery storage↗

The Effects of the War in Ukraine on National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Missions

While the challenge from a risen and revisionist China may prove greater and more enduring, Russia’s war on Ukraine profoundly changes the strategic context, importance, and requirements of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) missions. The world changed as much in February of 2022 as it did in November of 1989 or December of 1991 , when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union fell apart. These changes will not likely be ephemeral. Russia is preparing for a long war and a prolonged period of isolation from and hostility toward the West. Although Russia has many political, economic, and military weaknesses, it retains the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia is therefore central to deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear security issues. Furthermore, Moscow’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council affords it a veto potentially affecting all these issues.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Super Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data With Wind From Reanalysis Data (Sup3rWind) and Application to Ukraine [Slides]

In this work we present a novel deep learning-based downscaling method, using generative adversarial networks (GANs), for generating high-resolution wind resource data from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data (ERA5). We show that by training a GAN model on ERA5, as opposed to coarsened high-resolution data, we achieve results that are competitive with conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. All GANs are trained on data sampled from CONUS, selected to provide a diverse sampling of terrain conditions, and validated on observational data along with data held out from training. This cross-validation shows low error and high correlations with observations and excellent agreement with hold out data across physical distributions. Our approach is finally used to downscale 30km hourly ERA5 to 2-km 5-minute wind data, for January 2000 through December 2023, at multiple hub heights, over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. Comparisons against observational data from Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) and multiple wind farms show the same level of performance as for CONUS validation. This 24 year data record is the first member of the "super resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from reanalysis data" dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Aligning Ukrainian Building Energy Codes with the EPBD

The aim of this report is to support Ukraine in revising its building energy codes in line with regulations laid out by the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD). The main objectives are to i) provide valuable information to help Ukraine align its building energy codes with EPBD requirements, ii) advance the capacity of key stakeholders in Ukraine to develop new regulations based on robust technical methodologies and analysis, iii) summarize building energy codes best practices using examples from the EU and elsewhere, and iv) recommend steps Ukraine can take to improve its building energy code regulations and implementation. This report summarizes EPBD requirements for new buildings, and buildings undergoing major renovations, related to cost-optimal and Nearly Zero Energy Building (NZEB) requirements. This report highlights Ukraine’s progress in aligning it’s building energy codes with the aforementioned requirements and best practices regarding those requirements from the EU and internationally. Based on best practices and Ukraine’s current progress on requirements, recommendations are presented. A brief overview of the EPBD and building energy codes in Ukraine is also provided. Implementation related to building energy codes is touched upon as well. Potential next steps for Ukraine are outlined based on provided recommendations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tariff Setting in the District Heating Sector: Recommendations Based on International Experience

Ukraine’s district heating (DH) system is an essential resource for the country and has the potential to provide efficient, local, and renewable energy to a large share of the population. However, inefficient regulation and management have caused the sector to experience a vicious cycle of financial, operational, and technological problems. Overcoming these challenges and building a sustainable DH system requires comprehensive reforms, which could attract significant investment, improve the quality of services, and increase the efficiency of DH. One of the key elements of a comprehensive reform program should be a comprehensive reform of the tariff system. The purpose of this report is to provide analysis of European models for tariff regulation and recommendations for reforms to Ukraine’s DH tariff system. The report presents several case studies from European countries, followed by analysis of the current tariff system in Ukraine and barriers to effective regulation. Based on these findings, the report proposes actions Ukraine could take to improve the tariff regulatory system and promote a sustainable DH sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022

The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Thermal, RGB, and Multispectral Unexploded Ordnance Data Collection

As of May 1, 2026 Landmine contamination affects 58 countries and many hundreds of thousands of km² of land. For example, the National Mine Action Program Demining Ukraine reporting that up to 144,000 km² of territory are potentially contaminated and require survey and clearance (National Mine Action Program “Demining Ukraine,” n.d.) alone. This contamination includes mines and other explosive remnants of war and continues to constrain civilian access, agricultural use, infrastructure recovery, and broader socioeconomic activity (International Campaign to Ban Landmines–Cluster Munition Coalition [ICBL-CMC], 2024; Mine Action Review, 2024). Current response activities rely on established mine-action approaches including non-technical survey, technical survey, clearance, and explosive ordnance disposal, consistent with international mine-action terminology and operational practice (United Nations Mine Action Service [UNMAS], 2024; Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining [GICHD], 2023). In this context, UAV-based sensing, including UAV-mounted thermal imaging, may provide a useful supplementary capability by supporting faster, safer detection and mapping of suspect hazards prior to ground intervention (Smiljanic, 2022).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980-2018

Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment, and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since the 1980s in Europe,mainly owing to a reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions.Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantifies contributions from 16 source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The majority of which was contributed to reductions of local emissions in Europe, and 8 %–9 % was induced by a decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important for air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading led to a warming effect of 2.0 W m –2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both local European emissions and non-European emissions should decrease at a comparable rate in the next 3 decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions for causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterisation of Specimens from a Former Soviet Thorium Processing Facility to Support Site Remediation

The former Prydniprovski Chemical Plant (PChP) is a large ex-soviet nuclear materials processing site of roughly 260 hectares, located in central Ukraine. PcHP was in operation between 1948 and 1991 for the purposes of processing uranium and thorium ore into ore concentrate. During its operational lifetime, tens of millions of tonnes of radioactive waste was generated on the site. A consequence of these activities, coupled with the mismanagement of the resulting radioactive materials and by-products, is that approximately 45% of the southern part of the site has become radioactively contaminated. This area comprises some 100-200 buildings and structures, many of which are in a state of disrepair and dereliction. Around 20 of these buildings are heavily radioactively contaminated, with radiation levels from a few μSv/hr to a maximum of 4 mSv/hr reported. The European Commission is currently working with the Ukraine Ministry of Energy and Coal Use and the Nuclear Regulator to improve radiological safety and security at the site. In order for these remediation works to proceed, the site management needs to characterise the radioactive materials that are held there. As part of this activity, the team from the University of Bristol have undertaken a survey of one of the most heavily contaminated buildings, collecting a selection of in situ material samples. A suite of complimentary materials characterisation techniques (e.g. X-ray Fluorescence, Raman Spectroscopy, etc) have been deployed in order to determine the radionuclides and composition of the compounds present. Characterisation of these samples will allow the operators of the chemical plant to go forward with remediation works within the building.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage

In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016 - both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented - the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage

In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016—both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented—the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Options For Large-Scale Installation of Individual Heat Substations Based on International Best Practices

The purpose of this report is to provide recommendations for actions Ukraine could take to implement large-scale installation of IHSs as part of comprehensive district heating reform. The report discusses the importance of IHS in the district heating sector, then presents several case studies of approaches that European countries have taken to facilitate large-scale IHS installation in multi-apartment buildings. These case studies focus on the ownership and financing of IHS, as there are different models for how this can be done (the DH company can make the investments and recover the costs through the tariff, or building residents can make the investments themselves). They also include details on the approval process and technical specifications, as these can add additional barriers and time to the installation process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Policies to Decarbonize District Heating: International Best Practices

This report analyzes and discusses best practices within DH systems throughout many countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Using case studies, the report outlines findings of how DH systems can impact CO 2 emission reductions and energy efficiency. These findings can be used by national policymakers and municipalities in Ukraine to illustrate the impacts from increasing connections to DH systems, and decarbonizing DH systems, on country’s emission reduction and energy efficiency goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗