Technology Tips for Solar + Storage REAP Application Reviews [Slides]
This presentation informs USDA staff on solar + storage technologies which was presented at the USDA REAP Solar + Storage webinar.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “USDA”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset
Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Community Input on the Need, Scope, and Development Roadmap of a Proposed National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crops Center (NVBBCC)
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) was awarded a pilot project in FY22 under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biopreparedness Research Virtual Environment (BRaVE) initiative, to define research priorities, needs, and requirements for a national virtual center devoted to the biosecurity of bioenergy crops. The mission of the proposed center, referred to as the National Virtual Biosecurity for Bioenergy Crop Center (NVBBCC), would be to provide the scientific basis and tools to detect, characterize, model, and mitigate biothreats to bioenergy crops. This function will be essential to ensure the projected increased US reliance over the next few decades on key plant-based energy products, such as biojet fuel. The NVBBCC is envisioned as a distributed, virtual center with multiple national laboratories at its core to maximize the use of existing unique facilities and expertise across the DOE complex. A major goal of the pilot project was to develop a roadmap for establishing NVBBCC through a series of meetings to gather community input. A total of about 150 individuals, drawn from DOE laboratories, the USDA, academia, NIH, DHS and the private sector participated in six planning meetings held in FY23. Four of the meetings were focused on specific research topics (disease detection, dispersion and disease propagation, biomolecular characterization of plant-pathogen interaction, and mitigation strategies). These four meetings were followed by a meeting that focused on computational needs to support collaborative, data-intensive research within a distributed center as well as workforce development. A final meeting focused on establishing and maintaining preparedness within NVBBCC to respond to an emerging disease within bioenergy crops and how it would collaborate and coordinate with USDA and DHS.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Data and Code for: Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits
This repository contains the simulation outputs and processing scripts associated with the study of winter wheat traits across the United States, utilizing the Ecosys agroecosystem model. The dataset includes model results for both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat systems, supporting the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits." Data includes the original Ecosys simulation outputs (archived in .db format within the compressed .zip files) and extracted analysis data (stored in .pkl files for efficient processing). Python code for data processing and figure generation is provided in a Jupyter notebook. External Observational Datasets should refer to the following official repositories for the input and validation data used in this study. The eddy covariance data from the AmeriFlux network (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/). Climate-forcing data of NLDAS-2 from NASA LDAS (https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/nldas-2-forcing-data). Soil data from the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO), available at (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/gridded-soil-survey-geographic-gssurgo-database). Crop yields, planting and harvest dates from the USDA public databases (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/; https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/actuarialinformationbrowser/CropCriteria.aspx). Satellite-derived SLOPE GPP data from ORNL DAAC (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1786). Land use and crop progress information from the USDA Crop Data Layer and Crop Progress and Condition Gridded Layers (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/). The Ecosys model code is available online at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS.
Wheat↗
Comprehensive framework for assessing and optimizing existing research networks
Conservation, monitoring, and research networks, or collections of ecological research sites unified under a common mission of data collection or a research mission, are essential infrastructure for understanding large landscapes. However, most networks developed opportunistically over decades rather than through systematic design, creating potential limitations in the ability to address conservation challenges across entire regions. We developed a framework to evaluate how well an existing research network represents the environmental conditions its members study and devised an approach to rank sites of priority for strategic expansion. Our approach measures performance through environmental representativeness, geographic coverage, and adequacy for scientific inference and thus optimizes limited monitoring resources to maximize scientific impact. We demonstrated this approach with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges Network (EFRN), a 79‐site network across the United States that grew opportunistically over a century. At the national scale, the network effectively captured high‐biomass forests important for carbon cycle research; 82% of forest biomass was in well‐represented areas. Some areas in Texas, Florida, the Rocky Mountains, and the West Coast had no relevant EFRN sites, which limits the ability to make regional inferences. A fundamental challenge for the EFRN was that sites improving regional extent coverage sometimes provided minimal national benefits, which can create conflicts between local and global priorities. Adding the highest‐ranked candidate site provided a relevant site for 17% of currently poorly represented 1‐km pixel cells nationally, but regional and national site rankings varied considerably due to nested spatial inference. This framework provides quantitative tools for strategic infrastructure decision‐making, ensures that limited monitoring resources maximize conservation impact, and can be applied broadly to address the widespread challenge of optimizing conservation and monitoring networks worldwide.
additional site↗
Technology Tips for Solar + Storage REAP Application Reviews [Slides]
This presentation informs U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) staff on solar + storage technologies which can provide clean energy for agricultural producers and rural small business owners.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference
Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Registration of ‘Independence’ switchgrass
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a valuable forage and bioenergy crop, is established more easily than other native perennial warm-season grasses, but its establishment is still slower than that of annual crops. Vigorous switchgrass establishment is crucial for achieving its full potential yield and for effectively competing with weeds for water and nutrient availability. To satisfy this demand, ‘Independence’ (Reg. no. CV-295, PI 704577) switchgrass was developed at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Independence was selected for establishment vigor, winter survivorship, and high biomass yield for two cycles from ‘Kanlow’. Here, it is characterized by rapid establishment, robust seedling growth, and the capacity to achieve peak production by the second year. Independence is well adapted to USDA hardiness zones 5b–7b. In field experiments conducted from 2016 to 2017, averaged over seven locations and all years, Independence annually yielded 13 Mg ha –1 of biomass, outperforming ‘Cave-in-Rock’ by 31%, ‘Liberty’ by 15%, ‘Shawnee’ by 42%, ‘Summer’ by 81%, and ‘Sunburst’ by 129%. In wet marginal sites in Illinois from 2020 to 2023, Independence exhibited an average biomass yield of 12 Mg ha –1 , outperforming Shawnee by 31%, Liberty by 27%, and Kanlow by 19%, indicating its potential use on less productive land for annual crops. Independence was publicly released by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in October 2021.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
HopBox: An image analysis pipeline to characterize hop cone morphology
Abstract Hop cone morphology can influence picking and drying ability, and color can impact consumer preference and may be indicative of quality. However, these characteristics are not generally evaluated in hop breeding programs due to the tedious nature of trait quantification and the extensive variation among cones within a genotype. We developed the HopBox, which is a simply constructed light box with a camera mount, and a publicly available image processing pipeline that identifies hop cones within color‐corrected images, reads a QR code within the image, and outputs data on hop cone length, width, area, perimeter, openness, weight, color, and density. The trained model was applied to images of 500 cones each from 15 replicated advanced hop genotypes from the USDA‐ARS breeding program in Prosser, Washington. Analysis of variance revealed significant ( p < 0.001) differences between genotypes for all traits measured, enabling breeders to discriminate between genotypes for selection purposes. Broad sense heritability for all traits ranged from 0.23 to 0.59. A random sampling of hop cones from the complete dataset revealed that imaging only 5–10 cones adequately captured genotypic variation and provided acceptable rank correlations ( r s > 0.75); however, increasing the sample size to 30 provided optimal precision. Instructions for constructing a HopBox and the code for the analysis pipeline are publicly available online and have wide applicability for hop breeding and research.
Altendorf, Kayla R.↗
Putting the soil health principles to the test in Iowa
One of the most popular soil conservation campaigns is based on the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Health Principles (NRCS-SHPs). The NRCS-SHP program identifies four principles—maximize presence of living roots, minimize disturbance, maximize soil cover, and maximize biodiversity—with the underlying assumption that the more principles one follows, the greater improvements in soil health. Despite the popularity of the NRCS-SHPs, this underlying assumption has not been rigorously tested. To do so, we used nine long-term experiments all located in central Iowa, but with varying degree of NRCS-SHP adoption, to determine if greater adoption increases three slow-changing (maximum water holding capacity, bulk density [BD], and soil organic carbon) and three dynamic (microbial biomass carbon [MBC], potentially mineralizable carbon [PMC], and permanganate oxidizable carbon [POXC]) soil health indicators. We regressed these indicators with a soil health principle score that can scale soil management based on adoption of the NRCS-SHPs. Of the slow-changing soil properties, increased adoption of NRCS-SHPs only decreased soil BD (R2 = 0.22, p = 0.024). On the other hand, increased adoption of NRCS-SHPs strongly predicted increases in both MBC and PMC and across two sampling dates (R2 > 0.23, p < 0.015); POXC, however, did not increase with greater adoption. The consistent increases in MBC and PMC with greater adoption of NRCS-SHPs supports their usefulness as sensitive indicators of positive soil health change. Our study provides scientific evidence to support the NRCS-SHPs concept, improving its usefulness as an extension campaign, and stands as a step toward evidence-based soil conservation.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Quantitative Representativeness and Constituency of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network and Analysis of Complementarity with Existing Ecological Networks
Abstract Studies conducted at sites across ecological research networks usually strive to scale their results to larger areas, trying to reach conclusions that are valid throughout larger enclosing regions. Network representativeness and constituency can show how well conditions at sampling locations represent conditions also found elsewhere and can be used to help scale-up results over larger regions. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to design networks and select sites that optimize regional representation, thereby maximizing the value of datasets and research. However, in networks created from already established sites, an immediate challenge is to understand how well existing sites represent the range of environments in the whole area of interest. We performed an analysis to show how well sites in the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network represent all agricultural working lands within the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our analysis of 18 LTAR sites, based on 15 climatic and edaphic characteristics, produced maps of representativeness and constituency. Representativeness of the LTAR sites was quantified through an exhaustive pairwise Euclidean distance calculation in multivariate space, between the locations of experiments within each LTAR site and every 1 km cell across the CONUS. Network representativeness is from the perspective of all CONUS locations, but we also considered the perspective from each LTAR site. For every LTAR site, we identified the region that is best represented by that particular site—its constituency—as the set of 1 km grid locations best represented by the environmental drivers at that particular LTAR site. Representativeness shows how well the combination of characteristics at each CONUS location was represented by the LTAR sites’ environments, while constituency shows which LTAR site was the closest match for each location. LTAR representativeness was good across most of the CONUS. Representativeness for croplands was higher than for grazinglands, probably because croplands have more specific environmental criteria. Constituencies resemble ecoregions but have their environmental conditions “centered” on those at particular existing LTAR sites. Constituency of LTAR sites can be used to prioritize the locations of experimental research at or even within particular sites, or to identify the extents that can likely be included when generalizing knowledge across larger regions of the CONUS. Sites with a large constituency have generalist environments, while those with smaller constituency areas have more specialized environmental combinations. These “specialist” sites are the best representatives for smaller, more unusual areas. The potential of sharing complementary sites from the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to boost representativeness was also explored. LTAR network representativeness would benefit from borrowing several NEON sites and the Sevilleta LTER site. Later network additions must include such specialist sites that are targeted to represent unique missing environments. While this analysis exhaustively considered principal environmental characteristics related to production on working lands, we did not consider the focal agronomic systems under study, or their socio-economic context.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Native bee Pollination Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Wetlands and Riparian Protected Lands
Abstract Many freshwater wetlands and riparian systems are protected within agricultural landscapes. Yet, pollinator ecosystem services are seldom considered key ecosystem services provided by these conservation easements. The purpose of this study is to explore the extent of protected aquatic lands to provide pollination ecosystem services by assessing pollinator abundances, crop yield changes, and value estimations of increased soybean yields from a subset of common native solitary bees. We created a novel geodatabase of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation easements and used this database in the InVEST crop pollination model to model wild solitary bee pollination. We then estimated the monetary value of yield increases provided by pollinators. We found that wetland uplands provided the greatest potential for pollination services for ground nesting bees, followed by herbaceous and forested riparian respectively. Stem nesters preferred forested riparian, then upland habitats. In soybeans fields, we found wild pollinators can provide up to 5.5% yield response from current private aquatic conservation lands. The current landscape is not optimized to use wetlands and riparian conservation lands as pollinator habitat, but these results suggest protected aquatic lands can sustainably increase wild pollination services to agricultural crops if landscapes are managed, protected, and optimized with pollinator services as co-benefit.
Hinson, Audra L. (ORCID:0000000242314820)↗
The effects of sequential hydrothermal-mechanical refining pretreatment on cellulose structure changes and sugar recoveries
The recalcitrance of lignocellulosic biomass necessitates an efficient pretreatment protocol for operating a successful cellulosic biorefinery. It is critical to improve cellulose accessibility for hydrolysis and fermentation by altering the plant cell wall’s physical structure and chemical composition. Sequential hydrothermal-mechanical refining pretreatment (HMR) allows efficient recovery of cellulosic sugars without utilizing any hazardous chemicals. HMR has been successfully applied to Liberty switchgrass, a bioenergy cultivar released by the USDA, and now it is being applied to oilcane, a recently developed transgenic sugarcane variety engineered to accumulate lipids in its vegetative tissues. Sugar yields of oilcane bagasse (OCB) and switchgrass (SG) treated with HMR are 96.4% and 75.4%, respectively. This study sought to correlate cellulosic sugar yields with structural changes within the cell wall caused by HMR on two distinct bioenergy crops. Simon’s staining technique for the specific surface area analysis showed that HMR increased the specific surface area of pretreated biomass residues by 80–112%. In addition, ATR-FTIR was performed to determine the effects of HMR on physical structures based on the total crystallinity index (TCI) and hydrogen bonding intensity (HBI). Irrespective of biomass type, HMR decreased the initial crystalline cellulose contents of untreated biomass residues by 3.5% and reduced TCI and HBI by 7–13%. Here, the study found that sugar yields were negatively correlated to reducing values of hydrogen bonding intensity, crystalline cellulose content, and total crystallinity index.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Comparison and validation of the QuEChERSER mega-method for determination of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in foods by liquid chromatography with high-resolution and triple quadrupole mass spectrometry
Instances of food contamination with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) continue to occur globally, but sample preparation and analytical methods are quite limited and often monitor for a small percentage of known PFAS. This study aimed to evaluate, validate, and compare performance of two instruments with the recently developed “quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, safe, efficient, and robust” (QuEChERSER) sample preparation mega-method – a method developed to monitor chemicals over a broad range of physicochemical properties. Initial evaluation of the QuEChERSER mega-method for determination of PFAS in food demonstrated recoveries, matrix interferences, and co-extractive removal comparable to (or better than) US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) methods. Subsequent validation of QuEChERSER in beef, catfish, chicken, pork, liquid eggs, and powdered eggs on a high-resolution mass spectrometer achieved acceptable recoveries (70–120%) and precision (RSDs ≤20%) for all 33 target analytes at the 1 and 5 ng g –1 levels and 67–88% of analytes at the 0.1 ng g –1 level, depending on the matrix. Additional validation was performed by tandem mass spectrometry on a triple quadrupole instrument. This approach provided no non-detects and better recoveries at the 0.1 ng g –1 level than the HRMS method but exhibited more variability at 1 and 5 ng g –1 spiking levels. Analysis of NIST SRMs 1946 and 1947 gave accuracies of 70–117%. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the capability of combining PFAS analysis with a mega-method previously validated for 350 analytes, while collecting non-target data for future retrospective analysis of emerging alternatives with a high-resolution mass spectrometry method.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Intensification differentially affects the delivery of multiple ecosystem services in subtropical and temperate grasslands
Intensification, the process of intensifying land management to enhance agricultural goods, results in “intensive” pastures that are planted with productive grasses and fertilized. These intensive pastures provide essential ecosystem services, including forage production for livestock. Understanding the synergies and tradeoffs of pasture intensification on the delivery of services across climatic regions is crucial to shape policies and incentives for better management of natural resources. Here, we investigated how grassland intensification affects key components of provisioning (forage productivity and quality), supporting (plant diversity) and regulating services (CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) by comparing these services between intensive versus extensive pastures in subtropical and temperate pastures in the USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network sites in Florida and Oklahoma, USA over multiple years. Our results suggest that grassland intensification led to a decrease in measured supporting and regulating services, but increased forage productivity in temperate pastures and forage digestibility in subtropical pastures. Intensification decreased the net CO 2 sink of subtropical pastures while it did not affect the sink capacity of temperate pastures; and it also increased environmental CH 4 emissions from subtropical pastures and reduced CH 4 uptake in temperate pastures. Intensification enhanced the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pastures in both ecoregions. Our study demonstrates that comparisons of agroecosystems in contrasting ecoregions can reveal important drivers of ecosystem services and general or region-specific opportunities and solutions to maintaining agricultural production and reducing environmental footprints. Further LTAR network-scale comparisons of multiple ecosystem services across croplands and grazinglands intensively vs extensively managed are warranted to inform the sustainable intensification of agriculture within US and beyond. Our results highlight that achieving both food security and environmental stewardship will involve the conservation of less intensively managed pastures while adopting sustainable strategies in intensively managed pastures.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Fine resolution remote sensing spectra improves estimates of gross primary production of croplands
Gross primary production (GPP) is a fundamental measure of the terrestrial carbon cycle critical to our understanding of ecosystem function under the changing climate and land use. Remote sensing enables access to continuous spatial coverage, but remains challenged in heterogeneous croplands. Coarse resolution products, like MOD17A (500 m), may aggregate fragmented land cover types commonly found in heavily managed landscapes and misrepresent their respective contribution to carbon production. Consequently, this study demonstrates the capability of fine-resolution imagery (20-30 m) and available red-edge vegetation indices to characterize GPP across seven Midwest cropping systems. Four sites were established on a 22-year-old USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); and the other three on land conventionally farmed with corn-soybean-wheat rotation (AGR). We compare in situ GPP estimates from eddy-covariance towers with ten satellite models: eight variants of the vegetation photosynthesis models (VPM), of which five include a red-edge vegetation index, as well as conventional products Landsat CONUS GPP (30 m) and MOD17A2H V6 (500 m). Daily and cumulative fine-resolution imagery integrated within VPM generally agreed with tower-based GPP in heterogeneous landscapes more than those from MODIS 500 m VPM or conventional GPP products from MOD17AH V6 or Landsat 8 CONUS. Here, replacing EVI2 with red-edge indices NDRE2, NDRE1, and MTCI in Sentinel 2 VPMs notably improved explanation of variance and estimation of cumulative GPP. While existing methods using MODIS- and Landsat-derived GPP are important baselines for regional and global studies, future research may benefit from the higher spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt
As a potential source of low-carbon transportation energy, biofuels offer certain advantages over vehicle electrification (e.g., lower societal vulnerability to grid failures, and improved range of sustainable aviation), but also several challenges, including cost, carbon intensity, and land usage. There are also well-founded concerns that biofuel supply chains could be disrupted if extreme weather events impact feedstock yields. In this paper, we explore the use of multi-objective optimization to identify biofuel production pathways that balance cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and supply vulnerability to extreme weather. We compare the use of three different many-objective evolutionary algorithms and linear programming in optimizing biomass cultivation decisions in the U.S. Corn Belt under weather uncertainty using historical, modeled, and synthetic yield data. We consider four feedstock choices (corn, soy, switchgrass, and algae) with two land types (agricultural and marginal lands) and evaluate decisions using three alternative spatial resolutions (ranging from the USDA agricultural district level to the state level). Results show that feedstock choice is the primary driver of objective performance (i.e., the position and shape of 3D, approximate Pareto frontiers). Spatial diversification is a less effective tool in reducing exposure to weather-caused drops in crop yield.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning
Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.
Deep learning↗