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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of Radical Reactivity with an Imine, (CF 3 ) 2 CNH: Rate Constants for Chlorine Atoms and Hydroxyl Radicals and the Global Warming Potential

The rate constant kOH for the reaction of 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoroprop-2-imine with OH radicals was measured relative to two reference compounds, CH 3 F and CH 3 CHF 2 , to be k OH = (4.2 ± 1.1) × 10 −14 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 at 295 K. This implies an atmospheric lifetime with respect to consumption by OH of 0.75 years. Reaction with Cl atoms yielded k Cl = (7.9 ± 1.7) × 10 −16 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 at 295 K, and reaction with O 3 has an upper limit of k O3 < 4 × 10 −23 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 , so that the atmospheric consumption by Cl and O 3 is negligibly slow. Absolute infrared cross sections of the imine yield a radiative efficiency of 0.34 W m −2 ppb −1 , which is corrected to 0.23 W m −2 ppb −1 for the effects of atmospheric lifetime. The imine’s corresponding 100-year global warming potential is 64 ± 19. This value is an upper limit, given that heterogenous atmospheric removal paths, such as hydrolysis in water droplets, are not included.

climate metric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Historical Subsurface Cooling in the Tropical Pacific and Its Dynamics

Abstract Understanding how the tropical Pacific responds to rising greenhouse gases in recent decades is of paramount importance given its central role in global climate systems. Extensive research has explored the long-term trends of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the overlying atmosphere, yet the historical change in the upper ocean has received far less attention. Here, we present compelling evidence of a prominent subsurface cooling pattern along the thermocline in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific since 1958. This subsurface cooling has been argued to be contributing to the observed cooling or lack of warming of the equatorial cold tongue SST. We further demonstrate that different mechanisms are responsible for different parts of the subsurface cooling. In the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and the southeastern off-equatorial Pacific, where zonal wind stress strengthens, a pronounced subsurface cooling trend emerges just above the thermocline that is closely tied to increased Ekman pumping. In the eastern equatorial Pacific where zonal wind stress weakens, the westward surface current and eastward Equatorial Undercurrent weaken as well, resulting in reduced vertical current shear and increased ocean stability, which suppresses vertical mixing and leads to local cooling. We conclude that the historical subsurface cooling is primarily linked to dynamical adjustments of ocean currents to tropical surface wind stress changes.

Jiang, Feng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice nucleating particle concentrations in the Arctic during MOSAiC 2020

This data set contains ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements, using Colorado State University’s (CSU) Ice Spectrometer (IS) of samples collected during the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign. Samples were collected from five different media: aerosol filters, meltwater, ice cores, snow pits, and bulk sea water (BSW).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

GNSS Installation at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Atmospheric Observatory Field Campaign Report

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network, is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above Earth's surface, designed to fill an important gap in the current global observing system. GRUAN’s objectives are to (1) provide long-term, high-quality climate records, (2) constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems (including satellites and current radiosonde networks), and (3) fully characterize the properties of the atmospheric column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric wind energization of ocean weather

Ocean weather comprises vortical and straining mesoscale motions, which play fundamentally different roles in the ocean circulation and climate system. Vorticity determines the movement of major ocean currents and gyres. Strain contributes to frontogenesis and the deformation of water masses, driving much of the mixing and vertical transport in the upper ocean. While recent studies have shown that interactions with the atmosphere damp the ocean’s mesoscale vortices O(100) km in size, the effect of winds on straining motions remains unexplored. Here, we derive a theory for wind work on the ocean’s vorticity and strain. Using satellite and model data, we discover that wind damps strain and vorticity at an equal rate globally, and unveil striking asymmetries based on their polarity. Subtropical winds damp oceanic cyclones and energize anticyclones outside strong current regions, while subpolar winds have the opposite effect. A similar pattern emerges for oceanic strain, where subtropical convergent flow is damped along the west-equatorward east-poleward direction and energized along the east-equatorward west-poleward direction. These findings reveal energy pathways through which the atmosphere shapes ocean weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Processes that Contribute to Future South Asian Monsoon Differences in E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract Two Earth system models are analyzed to gain insight into the processes that govern projected changes in the South Asian monsoon. Warmer present‐day base state tropical SSTs contribute to coupled processes that produce greater future tropical Pacific warming in CESM2 with less of an increase in season‐mean monsoon precipitation compared to E3SMv2. This is attributed to changes in the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric Walker circulation, with relatively larger increases in precipitation and upper‐level divergence over the tropical Pacific and increases in upper‐level convergence over South Asia in CESM2. The stronger El Niño‐like response in CESM2, which increases Pacific precipitation and upper‐level divergence farther to the east, and larger future ENSO amplitude in E3SMv2, produce a greater relative increase in future monsoon‐ENSO connections in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. This analysis indicates that the key processes that affect future monsoon‐ENSO connections are ENSO amplitude and size of the future tropical Pacific El Niño‐like response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light absorption enhancement of black carbon in a pyrocumulonimbus cloud

Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) firestorm systems have been shown to inject significant amounts of black carbon (BC) to the stratosphere with a residence time of several months. Injected BC warms the local stratospheric air, consequently perturbing transport and hence spatial distributions of ozone and water vapor. A distinguishing feature of BC-containing particles residing within pyroCb smoke is their thick surface coatings made of condensed organic matter. When coated with non-refractory materials, BC’s absorption is enhanced, yet the absorption enhancement factor ( E abs ) for pyroCb BC is not well constrained. Here, we perform particle-scale measurements of BC mass, morphology, and coating thickness from inside a pyroCb cloud and quantify E abs using an established particle-resolved BC optics model. We find that the population-averaged E abs for BC asymptotes to 2.0 with increasing coating thickness. This value denotes the upper limit of E abs for thickly coated BC in the atmosphere. Our results provide observationally constrained parameterizations of BC absorption for improved radiative transfer calculations of pyroCb events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonality and Albedo Dependence of Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Mountains create and enhance their own clouds, which both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation from the sun and absorb and re-emit land surface and atmospheric longwave radiation. However, the impacts of clouds on the surface radiation balance in high elevation snowy mountain terrain are poorly explored. In this study, we use data collected by the SAIL field campaign and partner organizations in the upper elevations (2,880 m.a.s.l) of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) over a 21-month period from September 2021 to June 2023 to estimate Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) in the shortwave, longwave, and the net effect. Longwave warming effects dominate during the winter when snow albedos are high (0.8–0.9) and the background atmospheric precipitable water vapor is low (<0.5 cm), yielding a maximum monthly average net CRF of +34.7 W·m -2 , meaning that clouds increase the net radiation relative to clear skies during this time period. The sign of net CRF switches in the warm season as snow recedes, sun-angles increase, and the North American monsoon arrives, yielding a minimum monthly average net CRF of -47.6 W·m -2 with hourly minima of -600 W·m -2 . The sign of net CRF is typically positive, even at solar noon, when the surface is snow covered, except for a brief period over melting, low-albedo snow (0.5–0.6) impacted by dust impurities. Sensitivity tests elucidate the role of the surface albedo on the net CRF. The results suggest that net CRF will increase in magnitude and lead to a more persistent cooling effect on the surface net radiation budget as the snow cover declines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating spatial variability of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nucleating particles in mountainous terrain

The ASR-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the East River Watershed as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF-2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small particle counter (POPS, (Gao et al., 2016)), CNN using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and INP using the Time-Resolved Aerosol Filter Sampler (TRAPS, Creamean et al. (2018)). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al., 2019; Kelly et al., 2021; Asher et al., 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al., 2017; Popoola et al., 2018; Caubel et al., 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al., 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al., 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Spatial Variability of Aerosol, Cloud Condensation Nuclei, and Ice Nucleating Particles in Mountainous Terrain Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research (ASR)-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the ERW as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS; Gao et al. 2016), cloud condensation nuclei (CNN) using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and ice nucleating particles (INP) using the time-resolved aerosol filter sampler (TRAPS; Creamean et al. 2018). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al. 2019, Kelly et al. 2021, Asher et al. 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al. 2017, Popoola et al. 2018, Caubel et al. 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al. 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al. 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in the ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies. We met this goal by answering the following science questions: 1. What is the aerosol temporal variability, and how does aerosol inhomogeneity vary seasonally? Is there significant seasonal variability in sources, or are short-term meteorological conditions the most important determining factor in sources for cloud nuclei? 2. What is the aerosol spatial variability? What are the aerosol characteristics at cloud base, presumably the particles most representative of those acting as cloud nuclei? 3. How should measurement networks be designed to capture aerosol-cloud interactions, and what do they need to measure? Can a single measurement site accurately represent aerosol properties in regions of complex terrain? SAIL-Net consisted of six measurement nodes spread across the ERW near Crested Butte, Colorado. The primary objective in site placement was to select locations that captured the vertical variation in aerosol properties while also spanning the domain of the SAIL campaign. The elevation of the sites ranged from roughly 2750 m along the valley floor of the ERW to approximately 3500 m near the top of Crested Butte Mountain, which is one of the taller peaks in the ERW. The farthest distance between sites was 14 km, while the closest two sites were approximately 1 km apart. Two of the sites were collocated with the ARM SAIL sites; our instruments sat on top of one of the trailers at AOS and another one of our sites was located in a meadow just above AMF2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air‐Ice‐Ocean Coupling During a Strong Mid‐Winter Cyclone: Observing Coupled Dynamic Interactions Across Scales

Abstract Arctic cyclones are key drivers of sea ice and ocean variability. During the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, joint observations of the coupled air‐ice‐ocean system were collected at multiple spatial scales. Here, we present observations of a strong mid‐winter cyclone that impacted the MOSAiC site as it drifted in the central Arctic pack ice. The sea ice dynamical response showed spatial structure at the scale of the evolving and translating cyclonic wind field. Internal ice stress and ocean stress play significant roles, resulting in timing offsets between the atmospheric forcing and the ice response and post‐cyclone inertial ringing in the ice and ocean. Ice motion in response to the wind field then forces the upper ocean currents through frictional drag. The strongest impacts to the sea ice and ocean from the passing cyclone occur as a result of the surface impacts of a strong atmospheric low‐level jet (LLJ) behind the trailing cold front and changing wind directions between the warm‐sector LLJ and post cold‐frontal LLJ. Impacts of the cyclone are prolonged through the coupled ice‐ocean inertial response. Local impacts of the approximately 120 km wide LLJ occur over a 12 hr period or less and at scales of a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers, meaning that these impacts occur at combined smaller spatial scales and faster time scales than most satellite observations and coupled Earth system models can resolve.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?

Abstract Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stratospheric aerosol injection can weaken the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method for offsetting greenhouse gas-induced warming by introducing scattering aerosols into the lower stratosphere to reflect sunlight. Here we explore a potentially more efficient alternative: weakening the Earth’s greenhouse effect by deploying absorptive aerosols in the upper stratosphere (~10 hPa). These aerosols warm the carbon dioxide emission level—where outgoing longwave radiation is most sensitive to temperature—thereby enhancing top-of-atmosphere infrared emission without altering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Idealized climate model simulations indicate that this approach can reduce global temperatures an order of magnitude more efficiently per unit aerosol mass than conventional scattering-based interventions. Although based on simplified model experiments lacking interactive aerosol processes and operational constraints, our results identify a distinct physical mechanism for climate intervention, arguing for further research into the impacts—especially potential unintended side effects—of injecting absorptive aerosols into the upper stratosphere as an alternative solar radiation management strategy.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗