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Evolution of Electric Sector Water Use Under Alternative Electricity Futures
Increasing competition for water resources in the United States could create future challenges for allocating and using thermal cooling water in the U.S. electric power sector. While thermal power plant retirements and the growth of wind and solar technologies can reduce national aggregate power sector cooling water use, local water constraints and growing demand for agricultural or municipal supply could create greater needs for higher-cost alternative water supplies such as groundwater or recycled wastewater. For some regions, these incentives could change future electricity planning and operational decisions. These relationships and impacts are studied here using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a national electric sector planning model that has recently been upgraded to include a highly detailed representation of thermal cooling water demand and supply. Thermal power technologies are differentiated by both cooling technology and water source type to track and constrain thermal cooling water use in a way that incorporates both physical and legal water considerations in the United States. This capability is exercised under a range of electricity sector futures with alternative technology costs, fuel prices, and water constraints to illustrate ways that U.S. electric sector water use could evolve under uncertain future electric sector drivers. In exploring changes to regional generation and transmission planning and operation, water requirements, and cost, we highlight the environmental and economic impacts of future power sector water decisions.
Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs
Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.
Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2019
The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.
Wind Technology Data and Trends: Land-Based Focus (Update 2020) [Slides]
The purpose of this presentation is to summarize publicly available data on key trends in U.S. wind power sector. In scope, the presentation focuses on land-based wind turbines over 100 kW in size, separates DOE-funded data collection efforts on distributed and offshore wind, and focuses on historical data, with some emphasis on the previous year.
Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation (Version 2020)
The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.
Storage Futures Study: The Challenge of Defining Long-Duration Energy Storage
This document explores the definition of "long duration" as applied to energy storage. Given the growing use of this term, a uniform definition could aid in communication and consistency among various stakeholders. There is large and growing use of the ARPA-E definition of greater than 10 hours. However, the term "long-duration energy storage" is often used as shorthand for storage with sufficient duration to provide firm capacity and support grid resource adequacy. The actual duration needed for this application varies significantly from as little as a few hours to potentially multiple days. This leads to the unsatisfying conclusion that there cannot be a simple, uniform, and static definition of long duration storage that captures its ability to provide firm capacity and also aids consistent communication.
Recent Changes to U.S. Coal Plant Operations and Current Compensation Practices
Over the last decade, the U.S. electric power sector has gone through one of the most dramatic changes in its existence. The combination of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale gas revolution and significant reduction in construction and operating costs for renewable resources, in part due to federal tax credits such as the production tax credit and investment tax credit mainly benefitting wind and solar, respectively, has resulted in a significant shift away from coal-fired generation, and instead towards natural gas and renewable generation. Furthermore, the operating profile of existing coal-fired electric generating units has changed significantly. As new natural gas combined cycle plants have become increasingly more efficient and cheaper to operate than older existing coal-fired power plants, coal units continue to lose baseload generation share and more frequently operate as load-following, or cycling, resources. These trends are of particular importance to state public utility commissions. Functioning as economic regulators, commissions oversee investments in a reliable, efficient system while balancing emissions goals, customer demands, and other policy objectives. Changes to coal plant operations as a result of increased competition from other fuel sources may have a bearing on system reliability and economics, and therefore constitute an important area for commissions to monitor.
Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: 2025
The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model is a capacity expansion and dispatch model that is primarily used for the contiguous U.S. electric power sector. The model relies on system-wide least cost optimization to estimate the type and location of future generation and transmission capacity. This document describes details of how the model is formulated, how it functions, and many of the key inputs.
Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Overview and Impact
To support the Government of Colombia's plans to transform its power sector, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has assembled a cross-organizational team to develop and deliver a comprehensive workforce training program for young energy sector leaders in Colombia designed to enhance the efficient integration of growing volumes of variable renewable energy (VRE) to the energy sector. The team - which includes USAID's Colombia Mission, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USAID's Scaling Up Renewable Energy (SURE) program implemented by Tetra Tech, and the U.S. Energy Association (USEA) - collaboratively developed a series of seven capacity building modules designed to ready Colombia's energy sector workforce to participate in the construction, operation, and grid integration of VRE projects, such as wind and solar. This brochure highlights the program's objectives, results, and impacts to date.
NREL's 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study
The 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study evaluates a variety of scenarios that achieve a 100% clean electricity system (defined as zero net greenhouse gas emissions) in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economywide net-zero emissions by 2050. The scenarios focus primarily on the supply of clean electricity, including technical requirements, challenges, and benefit and cost implications. The study results highlight multiple pathways to 100% clean electricity in which benefits exceed costs. The study does not comprehensively evaluate all options to achieve 100% clean electricity, and it focuses largely on supply-side options. This summary deck provides a high-level overview of the key findings.
Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Abstract The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO 2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.
Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.
The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.
Decarbonization of the power sector with CCS: Case study in two regions in the U.S. and lessons for Latin America
This paper estimates potential changes in the total systems cost (TSC) of two RTOs of the United States (U.S.), MISO-N and SPP RTO West, under the traditional decarbonization pathway of replacement of fossil-power plants with variable renewable energy (VRE) and the less traditional pathway of retrofitting fossil fuel units with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although the power mixes of MISO-N and SPP RTO West are particular to those regions, the results can apply to other regions, including Latin American countries that are planning to decarbonize their power sectors. This case study serves to highlight lessons on the difference of technology costs between these two pathways, as well as the cost associated with decarbonization rates close to 100%.
Decarbonization of the power sector with CCS: Case study in two regions in the U.S. and lessons for Latin America
This work consists of estimates of potential changes in the total systems cost (TSC) of two RTOs of the United States (U.S.), MISO-N and SPP RTO West, under the traditional decarbonization pathway of replacement of fossil-power plants with variable renewable energy (VRE) and the less traditional pathway of retrofitting fossil fuel units with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although the power mixes of MISO-N and SPP RTO West are particular to these regions, results can apply to other regions, including Latin American countries that are planning to decarbonize their power sectors. This case study serves to highlight lessons on differences in technology costs between these two pathways, as well as the cost associated with decarbonization rates close to 100%.
U.S. Virgin Islands: 2023 Energy Baseline Report
This report summarizes the currently available data on U.S. Virgin Islands' energy sector as of December, 2023. It describes primary energy consumption, end uses, energy production, relevant policies, and key challenges, including details on the power generation and transportation sectors. The report serves as a baseline of understanding to assess energy needs and priorities on the island.
2023-2024 Energy Baseline Report: American Samoa
This document is part of a series of 2023-2024 energy baseline reports produced for the U.S. Department of the Interior's Office of Insular Affairs. The energy baseline reports cover the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. American Samoa's 2023-2024 report provides a high-level overview of American Samoa's energy sector, the current climate and energy policy landscape in the territory, and the climate- and energy-specific challenges facing American Samoa.
Guam100: Guam's 100% Renewable Energy Future
Guam100 is a comprehensive approach to providing analysis to support the transition to 100% renewable energy that considers future load growth, equity, and affordability as well as enhancing the reliability of Guam's electric grid. Guam community stakeholder input will inform the approach to analysis and modeling of future electricity needs, priorities (resilience, equity, and affordability), and resources to meet those needs.