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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Investigation of the Short-Time Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

Since 1998, a ground based tropospheric ozone lidar has been running at Reunion Island and has been involved with a daily measurement campaign that was performed in the latter part of the biomass burning season, during November-December 1999. The averaged ozone profile obtained during November-December 1 999 agrees well with averaged ozone profile obtained from ozonesondes launch at Reunion during November-December (1992- 2001). Comparing weekly sonde launches (part of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes: SHADOZ program) with the daily ground-based lidar observations shows that some striking features of the day to day variability profiles are not observed in the sonde measurements. Ozone profiles respond to the nature of disturbances which vary from the one day to the next. The vertical ozone distribution at Reunion is examined as a function of prevailing atmospheric circulation. Backtrajectories show that most of the enhanced ozone crossed over biomass burning and convectively active regions in Madagascar and the southern African continent. The analyses of the meteorological data show that ozone stratification profiles are in agreement with the movement of the synoptical situations in November-December 1999. Three different sequences of transport are explained using wind fields. The first sequence from 23 to 25 November is characterized by Northerly transport, the second sequence from 26 to 30 November, the air masses are influenced by meridional transport. The third sequence from 2 to 6 December is characterized by westerly transport associated with the subtropical jet stream. The large standard deviations of lidar profiles in the middle and upper troposphere are in agreement with the upper wind variabilities which evidence passing ridge and trough disturbances. During the transition period between the dry season and the wet season, multiple ozone sources including stratosphere-troposphere exchanges, convection and biomass burning contribute to tropospheric ozone at Reunion Island through sporadic events characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability.

Randriambelo, Tantely↗
NASA NTRS1981

Natural variability of tropical upper stratospheric ozone inferred from the Atmosphere Explorer backscatter ultraviolet experiment

Analysis of backscattered ultraviolet radiances observed at tropical latitudes by the Atmosphere Explorer-E satellite reveals both annual and semiannual cycles in upper stratospheric ozone. The annual variation dominates the signal at wavelengths which sense ozone primarily above 45 km while below this, to the lowest altitude sensed, 35 km, the semiannual component has comparable amplitude. Comparison of radiance measurements taken with the same instrument at solar minimum during 1976 and solar maximum in 1979 show no significant differences. This suggests that variations in upper stratospheric ozone over the solar cycle are small, although the data presently available do not allow a definite conclusion.

Frederick, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Parameterization of the Vertical Variability of Tropical Cirrus Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties

Cloud Integrating Nephelometers (CIN) were flown on the U. North Dakota Citation aircraft and the NASA WB-57 aircraft for the purpose of measuring in-situ the optical extinction coefficient and the asymmetry parameter (g) at a wavelength of 635 nm of primarily ice particles encountered during the NASA CRYSTAL-FACE study of large cumulus clouds (Cu) and their anvils found in the southern Florida region. The probes performance was largely successful and produced archived data for vertical profiles of extinction, asymmetry parameter, and effective radius (Re), the latter being obtained by combining CIN and CVI (total water; Oregon State U.) measurements. Composites of the CIN and CVI data describing the average microphysical and optical behavior of the Cu and their anvils showed the following: The extinction increases with height as a result of the size of the particles also decreasing with height as shown by the Re measurements; near the top of anvils the size of the primary ice particles is about 10-um radius; and the value of g does not vary significantly with height and has a mean value of about 0.73 consistent with the idea that ambient ice crystals are primarily of complex shape and reflect solar radiation more efficiently than particles of pristine crystal shape. Other observations include: The g measurements were found to be an indicator of the phase of the cloud permitting identification of the clouds with water droplets, rain, and ice; visual ranges as small as several tens of meters were occasionally found in "extinction cores" that coincided with strong updraft cores; and comparison of the cloud probes on the Citation showed significant disagreement.

Gerber, Hermann E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Joint-probability Analysis of the Natural Variability of Tropical Oceanic Precipitation

Data projects pertaining to KWAJEX are described.Data sets delivered to the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC): 1) Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX) S-band calibrated, quality-controlled radar data, 1221 1 files of 3D volume data and 6832 files of 2D low-level reflectivity. 2) Raw and quality-control- processed versions of University of Washington Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer measurements obtained during KWAJEX. 3) A time series of synoptic-scale gif images of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) IR data for the KWAJEX period. The GMS satellite data set for the KWAJEX period was obtained from the University of Wisconsin and reprocessed into format amenable for comparison with radar data.Aircraft microphysics flight-leg definitions for all aircraft and all missions during KWAJEX were completed to facilitate microphysics data processing.

Yuter, Sandra E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Parameterizations of the Vertical Variability of Tropical Cirrus Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties

Our multi-investigator effort was targeted at the following areas of interest to CRYSTAL-FACE: (1) the water budgets of anvils, (2) parameterizations of the particle size distributions and related microphysical and optical properties (3) characterizations of the primary ice particle habits, (4) the relationship of the optical properties to the microphysics and particle habits, and (5) investigation of the ice-nuclei types and mechanisms in anvil cirrus. Dr. Twohy's effort focused on (l), (2), and (5), with the measurement and analysis of ice water content and cirrus residual nuclei using the counterflow virtual impactor (CVI).

Twohy, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Ocean Evaporation: A Comparison of Microwave Satellite and Assimilation Results

Remote sensing methodologies for turbulent heat fluxes over oceans depend on driving bulk formulations of fluxes with measured surface winds and estimated near surface thermodynamics from microwave sensors of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) heritage. We will review recent work with a number of SSM/I-based algorithms and investigate the ability of current data sets to document global, tropical ocean-averaged evaporation changes in association with El Nino and La Nina SST changes. We show that in addition to interannual signals, latent heat flux increases over the period since late 1987 range from approx. .1 to .6 mm/ day are present; these represent trends 2 to 3 times larger than the NCEP Reanalysis. Since atmospheric storage cannot account for the difference, and since compensating evapotranspiration changes over land are highly unlikely to be this large, these evaporation estimates cannot be reconciled with ocean precipitation records such as those produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. The reasons for the disagreement include less than adequate intercalibration between SSM/I sensors providing winds and water vapor for driving the algorithms, biases due to the assumption that column integrated water vapor mirrors near surface water vapor variations, and other factors as well. The reanalyses have their own problems with spin-up during assimilation, lack of constraining input data at the ocean surface, and amplitude of synoptic transients.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Gu, Guojun↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗