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Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones
Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.
Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized intercept parameter had an increasing trend with reflectivity. The shape parameter, on the other hand, decreased in a reflectivity range from 10 to 20 dBZ and remained steady at higher reflectivities. Considering the repeatability of the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution, a second impact disdrometer that was located 5.3 km away from the primary site in Wallops Island, Virginia, had similar size spectra in selected tropical cyclones.
The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency
Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.
Analyzing the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle using GPM, TROPICS, and other Spaceborne Observations
Tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit a distinct diurnal cycle of high clouds and rainfall, marked by an expansion of the TC cirrus canopy during the day and enhanced rainfall overnight. Recent modeling work also has uncovered a diurnal cycle of low-level radial and tangential winds in simulated storms, marked by an expansion of the surface wind field overnight and into the morning, along with increasing maximum wind speed in the eyewall. These results suggest that diurnal changes in radiative heating tendencies not only affect upper-level cirrus clouds and precipitating convection, but also the low-level circulation. This presentation will characterize expansions of the TC rain field using the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission’s Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation estimates. The Level 3 IMERG-Final rainfall data are azimuthally averaged about TC center positions in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, accounting for asymmetries due to vertical wind shear and storm motion. Preliminary results indicate that the TC rain field expands overnight and through the morning, reaching its maximum extent during the afternoon. This evolution is considerably asymmetric, however, with expansion favored downshear of the storm center. The results are broadly consistent with previous work that characterized the TC diurnal cycle using other observations and simulations. A similar analysis is performed using microphysical retrievals from the GPM Goddard Profiling algorithm and lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper to understand the relationship between the diurnal cycle, ice microphsyics, and lightning. Finally, with the ongoing Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, we will discuss our plans to leverage TROPICS for enhanced observation of the TC diurnal cycle.
Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites
The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.
Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites
Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.
Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Quantifying Heavy Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation can have devastating impacts on the areas affected, with outcomes ranging from mudslides to inland flash flooding. Previous studies have used a fixed radius around the TC to isolate storm-related precipitation. One previous study instead used a dynamic radius of 8 m s −1 winds, but the wind field of the TC can deteriorate or shift quickly after landfall or the onset of extratropical transition (ET). This study uses a dynamical radius derived from the 500-hPa geopotential height in and around the TC to define TC- and post-tropical cyclone (PTC)-related heavy precipitation, allowing for the analysis of precipitation with tropical origins after the official demise of the original TC. Climatologies are constructed, indicating a maximum in TC- and PTC-related heavy precipitation in the west North Pacific and a secondary maximum in the east North Pacific. PTC-related heavy precipitation accounts for as much as 40% of the annual heavy precipitation in the northwest portion of the west North Pacific basin and 3.13% of heavy precipitation globally. We observe that the major hurricane stage contributes on average 2.6% of the global TC- and PTC-related precipitation, while the less intense but more common tropical storm stages of the TC life cycle contribute 85.7% of this observed precipitation. This analysis framework can be further extended to assess model biases and climate projections of TC and PTC precipitation.
A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
Estimating tropical cyclone intensity by just using satellite image is a challenging problem. With successful application of the Dvorak technique for more than 30 years along with some modifications and improvements, it is still used worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. A number of semi-automated techniques have been derived using the original Dvorak technique. However, these techniques suffer from subjective bias as evident from the most recent estimations on October 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC for Tropical Storm Ophelia: The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33 kt (Tropical Cyclone Number 2.3/33 knots) from UW-CIMSS (University of Wisconsin-Madison - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB (the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) to T4.0/65 kt from SAB (NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch). In this particular case, two human experts at TAFB and SAB differed by 20 knots in their Dvorak analyses, and the automated version at the University of Wisconsin was 12 knots lower than either of them. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates about 10-20 percent uncertainty in its post analysis when only satellite based estimates are available. The success of the Dvorak technique proves that spatial patterns in infrared (IR) imagery strongly relate to tropical cyclone intensity. This study aims to utilize deep learning, the current state of the art in pattern recognition and image recognition, to address the need for an automated and objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Deep learning is a multi-layer neural network consisting of several layers of simple computational units. It learns discriminative features without relying on a human expert to identify which features are important. Our study mainly focuses on convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, to develop an objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. CNN is a supervised learning algorithm requiring a large number of training data. Since the archives of intensity data and tropical cyclone centric satellite images is openly available for use, the training data is easily created by combining the two. Results, case studies, prototypes, and advantages of this approach will be discussed.
Tropopause adjustment to tropical cyclones as inferred from satellite ozone observations
Data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer on the Nimbus-7 are used to map the climatological total ozone within and around tropical cyclones. A tropical cyclone numerical model is used to interpret total ozone patterns. The total ozone maps are used to diagnose storm intensity and to differentiate between intesifying and weakening tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone intensity versus total ozone anomaly distribution is examined and examples of mapping the total ozone of tropical cyclones in the period 1979-1982 are presented.
The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites
Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.
Can we mitigate tropical cyclone formation using aerosols? A review of cyclogenesis and aerosol effects as a theoretical basis
Tropical cyclogenesis is a complex phenomenon, involving processes across multiple scales, with various theories proposed to explain its mechanisms. This paper provides an up-to-date summary of the established physical mechanisms and controlling factors of cyclogenesis. Understanding the nature of tropical cyclone formation is necessary to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and inform tropical cyclone mitigation strategies targeting early-stage intervention. Despite the disparities among theories, the critical role of persistent, intensified convection in tropical cyclone initiation is universally acknowledged. Therefore, our hypothesis is that interrupting convective development using aerosol injection is a potential strategy for mitigating tropical cyclone formation. Targetted injection of coarse and fine aerosols at the formation stage are two proposed potential approaches for mitigating tropical cyclones. These methods have completely different microphysical effects but each may ultimately interfere with the formation of the nascent cyclone. In conclusion, these potential interventions open new areas of further research, which are important and necessary to establish a solid scientific foundation for cyclogenesis mitigation.
ESTIMATING THE BENEFIT OF TRMM TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA IN SAVING LIVES
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint NASA/JAXA research mission launched in late 1997 to improve our knowledge of tropical rainfall processes and climatology (Kummerow et ai., 2000; Adler et ai., 2003). In addition to being a highly successful research mission, its data are available in real time and operational weather agencies in the U.S. and internationally are using TRMM data and images to monitor and forecast hazardous weather (tropical cyclones, floods, etc.). For example, in 2004 TRMM data were used 669 times for determining tropical cyclone location fixes (National Research Council, 2004). TRMM flies at a relatively low altitude, 400 km, and requires orbit adjustment maneuvers to maintain altitude against the small drag of the atmosphere. There is enough fuel used for these maneuvers remaining on TRMM for the satellite to continue flying until 2011-12. However, most of the remaining fuel may be used to perform a controlled re-entry of the satellite into the Pacific Ocean. The fuel threshold for this operation will be reached in the summer of 2005, although the maneuver would actually occur in late 2006 or 2007. The full science mission would end in 2005 under the controlled re-entry option. This re-entry option is related to the estimated probability of injury (1/5,000) that might occur during an uncontrolled re-entry of the satellite. If the estimated probability of injury exceeds 1/10,000 a satellite is a candidate for a possible controlled re-entry. In the TRMM case the NASA Safety Office examined the related issues and concluded that, although TRMM exceeded the formal threshold, the use of TRMM data in the monitoring and forecasting of hazardous weather gave a public safety benefit that compensated for TRMM slightly exceeding the orbital debris threshold (Martin, 2002). This conclusion was based in part on results of an independent panel during a workshop on benefits of TRMM data in concluded that the benefit of TRMM data in saving lives through its use in operational forecasting could not be quantified. The objective of this paper is to describe a possible technique to estimate the number of lives saved per year and apply it to the TRMM case and the use of its data in monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclones.
Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1
A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are a continuation of nearly two decades of previous tropical cyclone-related investigations.
Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin
One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.