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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMB lensing and Ly⁢ α forest cross bispectrum from DESI’s first-year quasar sample

The squeezed cross-bispectrum B κ,Ly α between the gravitational lensing in the cosmic microwave background and the 1D Ly α forest power spectrum can constrain bias parameters and break degeneracies between σ8 and other cosmological parameters. We detect B κ,Ly ⁢α with 4.8⁢σ significance at an effective redshift z eff =2.4 using Planck PR3 lensing map and over 280,000 quasar spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument’s first-year data. We test our measurement against metal contamination and foregrounds such as Galactic extinction and clusters of galaxies by deprojecting the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect. Finally, we compare our results to a tree-level perturbation theory calculation and find reasonable agreement between the model and measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impurity gas detection for SNF canisters using probabilistic deep learning and acoustic sensing *

Abstract Monitoring impurity gases in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters is a novel structural health monitoring approach for SNF in dry storage. The SNF canisters are sealed containers that do not facilitate visual access to the inside. Acoustic sensing can be deployed by taking advantage of the pathways unobstructed by internal hardware. Although the ultrasonic time-of-flight measurement can provide valuable information, it is limited in its ability to discern the concentration of only one impurity gas. As such, deep learning algorithms, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), offer a promising solution. In this study, CNN-based probabilistic deep learning models were implemented to detect and quantify multiple impurity gases in helium. An experimental platform was established to simulate canister conditions, and ultrasonic test data were collected. The presence of argon and air in helium at concentrations ranging from 0% to 1.2% at increments of 0.05% was considered. The multi-layer perceptron, decision tree, and logistic regression classifiers achieved high accuracies when distinguishing pure helium from helium with impurities. CNN with dropout layers and CNN using maximum likelihood estimation showed a similar performance, indicating their ability to capture uncertainties. The ensemble CNN model exhibited improved predictions and the ability to balance individual gas concentration by integrating 1D- and 2D-CNN models. These findings contribute probabilistic deep learning solutions for impurity gas detection and analysis within SNF canisters, thus ensuring safe storage and management of SNFs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning–Guided Boolean Matrix Inference for Real-Time O-RAN Conflict Detection

Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) are emerging, software-driven cellular architectures that promote flexibility by enabling components from different vendors to interoperate. Multiple control applications called xApps can independently adjust network parameters in near real time, often without awareness of each other's actions. This creates a system highly prone to unintended conflicts and performance degradation due to the inherent complexity of such openness. To model such systems and ultimately prevent or mitigate xApp conflicts, it is essential to understand the dynamic relationships between xApps (A), the control parameters they adjust (P), and the resulting KPI responses (K). While the mappings from A to P and from K to A can often be derived from xApp specifications, the relationship from P to K is typically hidden within the system’s dynamics and must be inferred from observed data. We propose a novel data-driven Boolean inference framework that uncovers the hidden P?K dependencies using machine learning and interpretable rule induction. Continuous parameters and KPIs are first binarized using decision tree classifiers, and a binary influence matrix L is then inferred by solving Boolean matrix equations over time. This compact representation improves interpretability and enables real-time tracking of dynamically evolving parameter-KPI dependencies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a realistic mobile handover scenario, where it accurately recovers the underlying logic and enables proactive conflict detection.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Occurrence of Large–Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin

Convective storms with strong downdrafts create windthrows: snapped and uprooted trees that locally alter the structure, composition, and carbon balance of forests. Comparing Landsat imagery from subsequent years, we documented temporal and spatial variation in the occurrence of large (≥30 ha) windthrows across the Amazon basin from 1985 to 2020. Over 33 individual years, we detected 3179 large windthrows. Windthrow density was greatest in the central and western Amazon regions, with ~33% of all events occurring in ~3% of the monitored area. Return intervals for large windthrows in the same location of these “hotspot” regions are centuries to millennia, while over the rest of the Amazon they are >10,000 years. Our data demonstrate a nearly 4–fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985 (78 windthrows and 6,900 ha) and 2020 (264 events and 32,170 ha), with more events of >500 ha size since 1990. Such extremely large events (>500 ha up to 2,543 ha) are responsible for interannual variation in the overall median (84 ± 5.2 ha; ±95% CI) and mean (147 ± 13 ha) windthrow area, but we did not find significant temporal trends in the size distribution of windthrows with time. Our results document increased damage from convective storms over the past 40 years in the Amazon, filling a gap in temporal records for tropical regions. Our publicly accessible large windthrow database provides a valuable tool for exploring dynamic conditions leading to damaging storms and their ecological impact on Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weakly supervised anomaly detection with event-level variables

We introduce a new topology for weakly supervised anomaly detection searches, diobject plus X. In this topology, one looks for a resonance decaying to two standard model particles produced in association with other anomalous event activity (X). This additional activity is used for classification. We demonstrate how anomaly detection techniques which have been developed for dijet searches focusing on jet substructure anomalies can be applied to event-level anomaly detection in this topology. To robustly capture event-level features of multiparticle kinematics, we employ new physically motivated variables derived from the geometric structure of a collision’s phase space manifold. As a proof of concept, we explore the application of this approach to several benchmark signals in the di-𝜏 and di-𝜇 plus X final states. We demonstrate that our anomaly detection approach can reach discovery-level significances for signals that would be missed in a conventional bump-hunt approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event-Based Energy Impact Tracking and Forecasting with Limited Measurements for Rooftop Units

Packaged air conditioning units and heat pumps, also known as rooftop units (RTUs), are responsible for almost 133 billion kWh of electricity usage annually on site for space cooling U.S. commercial buildings. In addition, the use of heat pumps is a trend we expect to accelerate as buildings transition from fossil fuel-based heating to electricity as a key step for decarbonizing the U.S. commercial buildings sector. However, the operation conditions and energy use of RTUs and heat pumps are usually not well monitored as they are not commonly integrated with building automation systems and lack exposed sensing and control points. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a framework for tracking and forecasting energy impacts resulting from degradation of performance and improved performance for unit servicing using limited data. The proposed framework makes use of a constrained dataset, specifically measurements of the outdoor air temperature and the power demand of individual RTUs, to track and forecast changes in energy use associated with changes in performance over various temporal horizons ranging from days to weeks. Following the detection of an RTU fault, performance degradation, or performance improvement, the framework employs a prediction model to assess the cumulative energy impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with field-collected data for servicing and degradation examples and compare the predicting accuracy of Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) Regression models to Support Vector Regression and Linear Regression models. The results show that GBDT achieved the best accuracy for time-series validation datasets for the servicing and degradation cases, and the prediction model was able to track the cumulative energy impacts of events. The proposed framework can inform building owners of the cumulative change in energy usage of RTUs associated with performance degradation, performance improvement, or a fault.

packaged air conditioners, packaged heat pumps, ro↗
DOE OSTI2026

CodeScribe Agent

SF-26-086 CodeScribe introduces a structured, multi-stage pipeline that combines deterministic program analysis with LLM-powered translation to enable incremental, testable Fortran-to-C++ migration. First, `code-scribe index` traverses the project directory tree and produces `scribe.yaml` metadata files recording all modules, subroutines, and functions at each level, giving the LLM accurate structural context instead of a hallucinated codebase model. Second, `code-scribe draft` performs the deterministic portion of translation — converting Fortran types to C++ equivalents, replacing `use` statements with `#include` and `using namespace` directives, and detecting constructs requiring special handling — while embedding`scribe-prompt` annotations that guide the LLM through non-trivial cases such as statement-function-to-lambda conversions and `extern "C"` wrapper generation. Third, `code-scribe translate` applies project-specific TOML-based few-shot prompt templates and submits the composed prompt to a pluggable LLM backend (OpenAI, Anthropic, Argonne ARGO, any OpenAI-compatible endpoint, or local Hugging Face checkpoints), producing a C++ source file, a header, and a Fortran-C++ interface file for each translated routine so the codebase compiles and runs correctly throughout the migration. Beyond translation, CodeScribe includes a tool-using coding agent (`code-scribe agent`) with read, bash, edit, and write capabilities, and a bounded loop mode (`code-scribe loop`) that runs repeated stateless agent sessions over a task file with restricted tool access — enabling sustained, auditable software development workflows for broader scientific computing tasks.

Dhruv, Akash [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cuticular wax profiling of Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera reveals surface similarities with underlying differences

Cuticular waxes are a mixture of hydrophobic components protecting plant tissues from the environment. Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera are closely-related tree species with broad North American distribution; however, variation in their cuticular wax composition across their range remained poorly understood. To address this gap, stem and leaf waxes from both species across three developmental stages were profiled by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. A core set of compounds shared across tissues, accessions, and developmental stages was detected, as well as tissue- or species-specific constituents such as phenolics and alkenes. Phenolic-derived compounds were more prevalent at early stages of development compared to the predominantly aliphatic composition of mature tissues. Moreover, early stage leaves also showed enhanced protection from desiccation and oxidative stress in a subset of accessions. Alkenes, found exclusively in leaves, segregated the poplar accessions into alkene-producing and alkene-lacking phenotypes. GWAS analysis of 174 P. trichocarpa accessions identified a region on chromosome 10 containing a tandem cluster of ketoacyl CoA synthases associated with alkene accumulation in P. trichocarpa , which was not significantly associated in 133 P. balsamifera individuals examined. These findings reveal dynamic, developmentally regulated, and species-specific variation in poplar wax profiles. Understanding these chemical traits offers new opportunities to develop Populus varieties with enhanced environmental resilience and adaptive potential.

GWAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divergent viral phosphodiesterases for immune signaling evasion

Cyclic dinucleotides (CDNs) and other short oligonucleotides play fundamental roles in immune system activation in organisms ranging from bacteria to humans. In response, viruses use phosphodiesterase (PDE)-mediated oligonucleotide cleavage for immune evasion, a strategy whose diversity has not yet been explored. Here, we use a canonical 2H PDE (2H PDE) structure-based search of prokaryotic and eukaryotic viral sequences to identify an exceptional diversity of 2H PDEs across the virome, including enzymes not detectable with sequence search methods alone. Despite active site conservation, biochemical experiments reveal remarkable substrate specificity of these PDEs that corresponds to variations in the core 2H fold. This nuanced specificity allows 2H PDEs to selectively degrade oligonucleotide messengers to avoid interfering with host nucleotide signaling. Together, these findings nominate viral 2H PDEs as key regulators of CDN signaling across the tree of life.

CBASS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low Activity Tritium Detection in CCDs Using Deep Learning Techniques

Here, this study explores the use of charge-coupled devices (CCDs) for detecting low-energy beta particles from tritium decay - a critical signal for nuclear safety, nuclear nonproliferation, and environmental monitoring. We employ a dual approach utilizing both measured CCD data and detailed Geant4 simulations. Our analysis compares classical techniques with advanced deep learning methods, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), autoencoders trained exclusively on tritium data, and preliminary studies on boosted decision trees (BDTs). The CNN, trained on mixed signal/background datasets, demonstrates superior classification performance, while the autoencoder shows the potential of unsupervised, background-agnostic strategies when background characteristics are poorly defined. These results highlight the excellent sensitivity achievable thanks to the background rejection made possible by information-rich CCD data, paving the way for improved portable tritium monitoring.

Autoencoder↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aboveground woody biomass estimation of young bioenergy plantations of Populus and its hybrids using mobile (backpack) LiDAR remote sensing

Woody aboveground biomass (AGB) including short-rotation Populus is used as a feedstock for renewable and carbon-neutral bioenergy. While woody AGB can be estimated with allometric equations requiring labor-intensive field data, remote sensing technologies like mobile terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) can estimate woody AGB quickly and accurately. Therefore, the goals of this study were to develop a model to predict woody AGB of 2-year-old Populus spp. from three taxa (P. deltoides, P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii and P. deltoides × P. trichocarpa) using allometric (height and diameter at breast height (DBH)) or LiDAR-derived metrics from a mobile terrestrial (backpack) system. Likewise, we sought to compare LiDAR-estimated tree height and DBH with field-measured values. We found that a taxa-specific model containing LiDAR-measured tree height, crown volume, and taxa interactions with the height of the 10 th percentile, and the density of the lowest interval (density metric 0) explained 84 % of the variation in woody AGB with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 28.7 % and performed slightly better than the allometric model. The best model excluding taxa had a slightly higher RMSE but lower bias than the allometric model. LiDAR-derived tree heights were highly correlated with field-measured heights, but DBH could not be estimated accurately. Therefore, terrestrial mobile LiDAR systems can accurately estimate woody AGB and tree height of Populus in short rotation systems to aid in the fast and efficient quantification of woody bioenergy production and renewable energy resources.

AGB↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗