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Supervised Gamma Process Poisson Factorization

This thesis develops the supervised gamma process Poisson factorization (S- GPPF) framework, a novel supervised topic model for joint modeling of count matrices and document labels. S-GPPF is fully generative and nonparametric: document labels and count matrices are modeled under a uni ed probabilistic framework and the number of latent topics is controlled automatically via a gamma process prior. The framework provides for multi-class classification of documents using a generative max-margin classifier. Several recent data augmentation techniques are leveraged to provide for exact inference using a Gibbs sampling scheme. The first portion of this thesis reviews supervised topic modeling and several key mathematical devices used in the formulation of S-GPPF. The thesis then introduces the S-GPPF generative model and derives the conditional posterior distributions of the latent variables for posterior inference via Gibbs sampling. The S-GPPF is shown to exhibit state-of-the-art performance for joint topic modeling and document classification on a dataset of conference abstracts, beating out competing supervised topic models. The unique properties of S-GPPF along with its competitive performance make it a novel contribution to supervised topic modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A novel procedure on next generation sequencing data analysis using text mining algorithm

Background: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have provided researchers with vast possibilities in various biological and biomedical research areas. Efficient data mining strategies are in high demand for large scale comparative and evolutional studies to be performed on the large amounts of data derived from NGS projects. Topic modeling is an active research field in machine learning and has been mainly used as an analytical tool to structure large textual corpora for data mining. Methods: We report a novel procedure to analyse NGS data using topic modeling. It consists of four major procedures: NGS data retrieval, preprocessing, topic modeling, and data mining using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic outputs. The NGS data set of the Salmonella enterica strains were used as a case study to show the workflow of this procedure. The perplexity measurement of the topic numbers and the convergence efficiencies of Gibbs sampling were calculated and discussed for achieving the best result from the proposed procedure. Results: The output topics by LDA algorithms could be treated as features of Salmonella strains to accurately describe the genetic diversity of fliC gene in various serotypes. The results of a two-way hierarchical clustering and data matrix analysis on LDA-derived matrices successfully classified Salmonella serotypes based on the NGS data. The implementation of topic modeling in NGS data analysis procedure provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from NGS data, and identify the gene-phenotype relationships and biomarkers, especially in the era of biological and medical big data. Conclusion: The implementation of topic modeling in NGS data analysis provides a new way to elucidate genetic information from NGS data, and identify the gene-phenotype relationships and biomarkers, especially in the era of biological and medical big data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Survey Protocol to Assess Meaningfulness and Usefulness of Automated Topic Finding in the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System

Context: The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants and other involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in a number of ways including entry into an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins and For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. Key to these publications are the timely processing (de-identification, coding and summarization) of new reports, which is currently done by ASRS expert safety analysts. Thus, we believe topic modelling could decrease effort in ASRS, if topics are comprehensible. Aim: We propose a methodology to evaluate whether automated topic finding using topic modelling provides meaningful and useful topics. Method: We extend the total error survey methodology to evaluate user topic comprehension of machine learning outputs. To accomplish this we performed a literature review to identify existing methods and define a construct for topic comprehension, utilizing existing ASRS synopsis writing practices to more precisely define meaningfulness and usefulness. Results: A survey protocol was created that addresses the limitations of other survey protocols found in the literature review, which we found lacking in rationale and clear protocol definition. Conclusion: The surveying of user understanding in machine learning outputs presents challenges due to the explosion of parameters to control for and the lack of systematic approach presented in the literature. More reproducible work and survey protocols are needed in the literature and our work is one step towards that direction.

topic finding↗

A Software Risk Model

Topics on the slide include:quality, test coverage, functional criticality, exposure, criticality, and risk index.

Lee, Alice↗

Visualizing Temporal Topic Embeddings with a Compass

—Dynamic topic modeling is useful at discovering the development and change in latent topics over time. However, present methodology relies on algorithms that separate document and word representations. This prevents the creation of a meaningful embedding space where changes in word usage and documents can be directly analyzed in a temporal context. This paper proposes an expansion of the compass-aligned temporal Word2Vec methodology into dynamic topic modeling. Such a method allows for the direct comparison of word and document embeddings across time in dynamic topics. This enables the creation of visualizations that incorporate temporal word embeddings within the context of documents into topic visualizations. In experiments against the current state-of-the-art, our proposed method demonstrates overall competitive performance in topic relevancy and diversity across temporal datasets of varying size. Simultaneously, it provides insightful visualizations focused on temporal word embeddings while maintaining the insights provided by global topic evolution, advancing our understanding of how topics evolve over time.

Cluster analysis↗

STExNMF: Spatio-Temporally Exclusive Topic Discovery for Anomalous Event Detection

Understanding newly emerging events or topics associated with a particular region of a given day can provide deep insight on the critical events occurring in highly evolving metropolitan cities. We propose herein a novel topic modeling approach on text documents with spatio-temporal information (e.g., when and where a document was published) such as location-based social media data to discover prevalent topics or newly emerging events with respect to an area and a time point. We consider a map view composed of regular grids or tiles with each showing topic keywords from documents of the corresponding region. To this end, we present a tilebased spatio-temporally exclusive topic modeling approach called STExNMF, based on a novel nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) technique. STExNMF mainly works based on the two following stages: (1) first running a standard NMF of each tile to obtain general topics of the tile and (2) running a spatiotemporally exclusive NMF on a weighted residual matrix. These topics likely reveal information on newly emerging events or topics of interest within a region. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach using the geo-tagged Twitter data of New York City. We also provide quantitative comparisons in terms of the topic quality, spatio-temporal exclusiveness, topic variation, and qualitative evaluations of our method using several usage scenarios. In addition, we present a fast topic modeling technique of our model by leveraging parallel computing.

Shin, Sungbok↗

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

Improved large perturbation propulsion models for control system design (1988-1989) and large perturbation models of high velocity propulsion systems (1989-1990) and reduced order propulsion models for control system design (1990-1991)

Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems will be discussed. Included in this category are internal flow propulsion systems without rotating machinery, such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. Among the modeling topics discussed are modeling of linear isentropic flow, heat exchange, gasdynamics, lumped parameter systems, and infinite dimensional systems. Furthermore, a generalized overview of modeling high speed propulsion systems is presented in this collection of papers.

Hartley, Tom T.↗

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems in the Disposition of Spent Nuclear Fuel

This document is a summary of the R&D activities associated with the Engineered Barrier Systems Work Package. Multiple facets of Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS) research were examined in the course of FY18 activities. This report is focused on delivering an update on the status and progress of modelling tools and experimental methods, both of which are essential to understanding and predicting long-term repository performance as part of the safety case. Specifically, the work described herein aims to improve understanding of EBS component evolution and interactions. Utlimately, the EBS Work Package is working towards producing process models for distinct processes that can either be incorporated into performance assessment (PA), or provide critical information for implementing better constraints on barrier performance The main objective of this work is that the models being developed and refined will either be implemented directly into the Generic Disposal System Analysis platform (GDSA), or can otherwise be indirectly linked to the performance assessment by providing improved bounding conditions. In either the case, the expectation is that validated modelling tools will be developed that provide critical input to the safety case. This report covers a range of topics — modelling topics include: thermal-hydrologic-mechanical-chemical coupling (THMC) in buffer materials, comparisons of modelling approaches to optimize computational efficiency, thermal analysis for EBS/repository design, benchmarking of thermal analysis tools, and a preliminary study of buffer re-saturation processes. Experimental work reported, includes: chemical evolution and sorption behavior of clay-based buffer materials and high-pressure, high temperature studies of EBS material interactions. The work leverages international collaborations to ensure that the DOE program is active and abreast of the latest advances in nuclear waste disposal. This includes participation in the HotBENT Field Test, aimed at understanding near-field effects on EBS materials at temperatures above 100 °C, and the analysis of data and characterization of samples from the FEBEX Field Test. Both the FEBEX and HotBENT Field Tests utilize/utilized the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland, which is situated in a granite host rock. These tests offer the opportunity to understand near field evolution of bentonite buffer at in situ conditions for either a relatively long timescale (18 years for FEBEX) or temperature above 100 °C (HotBENT). Overall, this report provides in depth descriptions of tools and capabilities to investigate nearfield performance of EBS materials (esp. bentonite buffer), as well as tools for drift-scale thermal and thermal-hydrologic analysis critical to EBS and repository design. For a more detailed description of work contained herein, please see Section 10 ("Conclusions") of this document.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simplified Physics Based Models Research Topical Report on Task #2

We present a simplified-physics based approach, where only the most important physical processes are modeled, to develop and validate simplified predictive models of CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. We use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Similar correlations are also developed to predict the average pressure within the injection reservoir, and the pressure buildup within the caprock.

Mishra, Srikanta↗

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ML for microbiomes

The software provides machine learning analysis and visualization to detect patterns in microbiome data, including topic modeling, probabilistic graphical modeling, conventional machine learning methods, and deep learning. The software is written in python and R, it uses some python and R libraries as well as big open-source libraries like sklearn, networkX, pytorch (python), pgmpy (python), and bnlearn (R). It also has a script to use for MALLET and DTM (open-source packages for topic modeling, written in Java).

Kim, Anastasiia↗

Learning Global Proliferation Expertise Evolution Using AI-Driven Analytics and Public Information

Detecting and anticipating global proliferation expertise and capability evolution from unstructured, noisy, and incomplete public data streams is a highly desired, but extremely challenging task. Here, in this article, we present our pioneering data-driven approach to support the non-proliferation mission to detect and explain the evolution of proliferation expertise and capability development globally from terabytes of publicly available information (PAI), focusing on our knowledge extraction pipeline and descriptive analytics. We first discuss how we fuse nine open-source data streams, including multilingual data, to convert 4 TB of unstructured data to structured knowledge and encode dynamically evolving proliferation expertise representations—content and context graphs. For this, we rely on natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning (DL) models to perform information extraction, topic modeling, and distributed text representation (aka embedding) learning. We then present interactive, usable, and explainable descriptive analytics to refine domain knowledge and present it in a human-understandable form. Finally, we introduce future work avenues that will leverage our dynamic knowledge representations and descriptive analytics to enable predictive and prescriptive inferences to achieve real-time domain understanding and contextual reasoning about global proliferation expertise and capability evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗