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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle

The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible ‘tipping point’ when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are poorly understood. Here we show that reduction in evapotranspiration from 20 years of deforestation dried the atmosphere persistently and caused moisture decoupling, i.e. an opposite sign of moisture change between the lower and middle troposphere. Increased deforestation exacerbated the lower troposphere drying and caused it to penetrate deeper into the middle troposphere in the dry and transition seasons over monsoon forests and savannas. Deforestation induced warming-enhanced buoyant updrafts, elevated hot and dry air and thereby reduced downward mixing of water supplies from the tropical Atlantic that normally moisten the Amazon forests. The severe atmospheric desiccation in the southern and eastern Amazon cannot be compensated by enhanced water supplies from the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating an irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle exacerbated by rapid deforestation. The more recent drying through the seasons over rainforests and during the wet season over the transition zones from rainforests to monsoon forests and savannas, however, suggests a window of opportunity for preventing ecosystem collapse with forest conservation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Electrons for Electrochemical CO 2 Capture Using a Hemi‐Labile Iron Complex

Climate change, driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions, demands urgent action to prevent a 2050 tipping point. With CO 2 levels at 427 ppm (50% above pre-industrial levels), deploying energy-efficient carbon capture technologies is crucial. Electrochemical carbon capture processes that have been touted to have the potential to meet these needs rely on the applied cell voltage, and electron utilization (CO 2 molecules separated per electron), which has generally been asserted to have a theoretical limit of one. Here, we introduce an electron-leveraging strategy to enhance electron utilization beyond this limit to 1.43 by employing Fe-EDDHA, a redox-active coordination complex having a ligand with multiple hemi-labile coordination sites. The reversibility and robustness of the system were enabled by the efficient prevention of CO 2 reduction upon the introduction of nicotinamide as a guardian of the iron(2+) center. The proof-of-concept cyclic system exhibits a minimum operational energy of 22.6 kJ e mol −1 and an average of 63.7 kJ e mol −1 over 29 cycles, using a simulated flue gas (15% CO 2 ). Our electron-leveraging strategy holds promise for advancing energy-efficient electrochemical carbon capture technologies, and offers an alternative to prevalent redox potential shifting methods proposed to mitigate undesired electron transfer reactions in redox-active materials across diverse operational conditions.

carbon storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

How ignition and target gain > 1 were achieved in inertial fusion

For many decades the running joke in fusion research has been that “fusion” is twenty years away and always will be. Yet, in 2023 we find ourselves in a position where we can talk about the milestones of burning plasmas, fusion ignition, and target energy gain greater than unity in the past tense – a situation that is remarkable! Herein this paper tells some of the story of the applied physics challenges that needed to be overcome to achieve these milestones and the strategy our team followed. Things did not always go well and some practical lessons learned are part of this story. The data shows, getting to a burning plasma in late 2020 and early 2021 was a key tipping-point, after which ignition (August 8, 2021) and target gain (December 5, 2022) were rapidly achieved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular and Dual-Isotopic Profiling of the Microbial Controls on Nitrogen Leaching in Agricultural Soils under Managed Aquifer Recharge

Nitrate (NO 3 – ) leaching is a serious health and ecological concern in global agroecosystems, particularly those under the application of agricultural-managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR); however, there is an absence of information on microbial controls affecting NO 3 – leaching outcomes. We combine natural dual isotopes of NO 3 – ( 15 N/ 14 N and 18 O/ 16 O) with metagenomics, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and a threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to investigate the activities, taxon profiles, and environmental controls of soil microbiome associated with NO 3 – leaching at different depths from Californian vineyards under Ag-MAR application. The isotopic signatures demonstrated a significant priming effect (P < 0.01) of Ag-MAR on denitrification activities in the topsoil (0–10 cm), with a 12–25-fold increase of 15 N–NO 3 – and 18 O–NO 3 – after the first 24 h of flooding, followed by a sharp decrease in the enrichment of both isotopes with ~80% decline in denitrification activities thereafter. In contrast, deeper soils (60–100 cm) showed minimal or no denitrification activities over the course of Ag-MAR application, thus resulting in 10–20-fold of residual NO 3 – being leached. Metagenomic profiling and laboratory microcosm demonstrated that both nitrifying and denitrifying groups, responsible for controlling NO 3 – leaching, decreased in abundance and potential activity rates with soil depth. TITAN suggested that Nitrosocosmicus and Bradyrhizobium, as the major nitrifier and denitrifier, had the highest and lowest tipping points with regard to the NO 3 – changes (P < 0.05), respectively. Overall, our study provides new insight into specific depth limitations of microbial controls on soil NO 3 – leaching in agroecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities

Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6–35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parasitic structure defect blights sustainability of cobalt-free single crystalline cathodes

Abstract Recent efforts to reduce battery costs and enhance sustainability have focused on eliminating Cobalt (Co) from cathode materials. While Co-free designs have shown notable success in polycrystalline cathodes, their impact on single crystalline (SC) cathodes remains less understood due to the significantly extended lithium diffusion pathways and the higher-temperature synthesis involved. Here, we reveal that removing Co from SC cathodes is structurally and electrochemically unfavorable, exhibiting unusual voltage fade behavior. Using multiscale diffraction and imaging techniques, we identify lithium-rich nanodomains (LRNDs) as a heterogeneous phase within the layered structure of Co-free SC cathodes. These LRNDs act as critical tipping points, inducing significant chemo-mechanical lattice strain and irreversible structural degradation, which exacerbates the voltage and capacity loss in electrochemical performance. Our findings highlight the considerable challenges of developing Co-free SC cathodes compared to polycrystalline ones and emphasize the need for new strategies to balance the interplay between cost, sustainability, and performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Knitting while Australia burns

A global biodiversity hotspot, Australia has reached a tipping point from which many of its forests may never recover. Record-breaking heat, drought and windy conditions have burned at least 10 million hectares. Halfway through the season, fires have persisted for months with no end in sight. Here, the continent faces an exponential rise in future wildfire risk as the climate warms and dries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modern temperatures in central–north Greenland warmest in past millennium

The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Engineering tertiary chirality in helical biopolymers

Tertiary chirality describes the handedness of supramolecular assemblies and relies not only on the primary and secondary structures of the building blocks but also on topological driving forces that have been sparsely characterized. Helical biopolymers, especially DNA, have been extensively investigated as they possess intrinsic chirality that determines the optical, mechanical, and physical properties of the ensuing material. Here, we employ the DNA tensegrity triangle as a model system to locate the tipping points in chirality inversion at the tertiary level by X-ray diffraction. We engineer tensegrity triangle crystals with incremental rotational steps between immobile junctions from 3 to 28 base pairs (bp). We construct a mathematical model that accurately predicts and explains the molecular configurations in both this work and previous studies. Our design framework is extendable to other supramolecular assemblies of helical biopolymers and can be used in the design of chiral nanomaterials, optically active molecules, and mesoporous frameworks, all of which are of interest to physical, biological, and chemical nanoscience.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Present understanding of ignition and gain using indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion target designs on the U.S. National Ignition Facility

For many decades, the running joke in fusion research has been that 'fusion' is thirty years away and always will be. Yet, these past few years we find ourselves in a position where we can now talk about the milestones of burning plasmas, fusion ignition, and target energy gain greater than unity (scientific breakeven) in the past tense. Fusion is no longer a joke! Yet getting to fusion ignition, the tipping-point of thermonuclear instability resulting in an explosive increase in ion thermal temperature and fusion reaction-rate, and scientific breakeven (target gain, $G_{target} =$ fusion yield/deposited laser energy >1, in the laser-driven inertial confinement fusion context) has not been easy. Here, in this publication, we discuss our present understanding of the physics and technological challenges surrounding ignition and Gain as well as highlight some outstanding problems that still need resolution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anderson impurity mechanism for a multi-level model in δ-Pu

Abstract Electronic correlations and spin–orbit interactions in plutonium create variations in the bonding behavior of each of its allotropes. In δ -Pu, the 5f electrons lie at the tipping point between itinerant and localized behavior which has made the use of mixed-level models successful in describing its mechanical properties. The mechanism for the emergence of a mixed-level model has not yet been understood. We use a series of density functional theory approximations to understand the interactions that create a mixed-level description of δ -Pu which leads to accurate physical properties. With the intersite interactions present in the hybrid functional, we show that a single 5f electron engages in orbital-selective bonding that can be understood with an Anderson impurity picture. The Anderson model gives us a mechanism to understand how the bonding in δ -Pu evolves as a function of the interactions in the material such that we obtain both the accuracy and physics of the multi-level models from ab initio theory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗