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DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing the efficiency of time-dependent density functional theory calculations of dynamic response properties

X-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) constitutes an essential technique for diagnosing material properties under extreme conditions, such as high pressures and intense laser heating. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is one of the most accurate available ab initio methods for modeling XRTS spectra, as well as a host of other dynamic material properties. However, strong thermal excitations, along with the need to account for variations in temperature and density as well as the finite size of the detector significantly increase the computational cost of TDDFT simulations compared to ambient conditions. In this work, we present a broadly applicable method for optimizing and enhancing the efficiency of TDDFT calculations. Our approach is based on a one-to-one mapping between the dynamic structure factor and the imaginary time density–density correlation function, which naturally emerges in Feynman’s path integral formulation of quantum many-body theory. Specifically, we combine rigorous convergence tests in the imaginary time domain with a constraints-based attenuation of narrow-band fluctuations to improve the efficiency of TDDFT modeling without the introduction of any significant bias. As a result, we can report a speed-up by up to an order of magnitude, thus substantially reducing the burden of computational cost required for XRTS analysis.

Moldabekov, Zhandos A. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-↗

DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemical Modeling of PID Leakage Current of PV Modules: Steady-State Current, Transient Current, and RC-Equivalent Circuit

Potential-induced degradation (PID) remains a significant reliability concern for photovoltaic (PV) modules, arising when a voltage difference between the module frame and the solar cells drives unintended leakage current through the glass-encapsulant stack. Although PID ultimately manifests as PID-s, PID-p, or PID-c, the underlying behavior of the leakage current-its magnitude and time dependence-requires clearer electrochemical interpretation. Traditional explanations attribute the initial transient current to bulk capacitive elements of the glass, encapsulant, and antireflection coatings, and the steady-state current according to their effective ohmic resistance. More recent studies, however, indicate that electrochemical charge-transfer processes at the encapsulant-metallization interface can play a dominant role in defining the leakage-current path. This paper develops a unified electrochemical framework for modeling PID leakage current. First, an RC-equivalent circuit is formulated by combining conventional RC elements with a Randles-type interface to capture transient leakage current through double-layer capacitance and faradaic processes at ionic-electronic boundaries. Second, the steady-state current-voltage behavior is explained using a linearized Butler-Volmer relationship, showing that the measured ohmic response corresponds to the low-overpotential limit of charge-transfer kinetics. Analytical results demonstrate that, for typical module materials-3.2-mm soda-lime glass and 0.45-mm encapsulant-the dominant modulators to PID leakage current are the glass surface resistance (under dry-surface conditions), the glass bulk capacitance, and the encapsulant resistance (under wet-surface conditions), with soda lime glass surface and EVA/POE encapsulant resistances primarily governing steady-state current. The proposed electrochemical model is validated against measured leakage-current data, showing good agreement in both the magnitude and the time-dependent evolution of PID leakage current.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive analytical model of the dynamic 𝑍 pinch

In this work we present an analytical 1D axisymmetric model describing the evolution of the dynamic 𝑍 pinch. This model is capable of predicting the trajectories of the imploding sheath's magnetic piston and preceding shock front, along with the velocity, pressure, density, and magnetic field profiles, for any time-dependent current, spatially varying initial density profile, and weak initial axial field. The implosion is divided into stages, with each stage described by a set of coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the ideal MHD equations. Comparisons with experimental data from the COBRA pulsed-power facility are quite promising and imply this model could prove useful in designing and analyzing future pulsed-power experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the physics basis for the ARC fusion power plant

Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to build ARC as the first fusion power plant at a site in Chesterfield County, Virginia, USA by the early 2030s. We present an overview of analysis comprising the physics basis of the ARC V3A design, a high-magnetic-field tokamak with 𝐵 0 =11.4 T, 𝐼 𝑝 =12.0 MA, 𝑅 0 =4.62 m, 𝑎 =1.18 m. ARC V3A is designed to produce 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 ≈1.13 GW DT fusion power and deliver ⩾400 MW net electric power to the grid. This overview includes quantitative analysis of fundamental issues for design of and operational plasma scenarios for a tokamak power plant, and lays out the design targets and strategic choices for ARC, including empirical fusion performance projections, assessment of H-mode access, ion cyclotron resonance heating simulations, alpha particle physics and time-dependent full-pulse simulations. This is complemented by topical papers on fusion performance and transport, disruption physics, boundary physics and magnetohydrodynamic stability. Critically, these studies identify key model uncertainties and physics risks to be retired through SPARC operation. Due to the modular nature of ARC, early results from SPARC can be incorporated into the design of the first ARC as well as subsequent replacements of the ARC vacuum vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Egg yolk as a model for gelation: From rheometry to flow physics

Egg yolks are an excellent model for studying sol-gel transitions, particularly the power law viscoelasticity that defines the critical point of gelation. However, prior studies lack comprehensive datasets and fail to visualize flow behavior linked to temperature and time-dependent linear and nonlinear rheology. Here, we present a detailed dataset characterizing egg yolk viscoelasticity across temperature, time, and forcing amplitude using oscillatory shear, step strain, step stress, and constant high strain rate. Novel protorheology visualizations link rheological properties with observable flow behavior. Our findings highlight the nuanced determination of the critical gel point, emphasizing observation timescale dependencies. We compare methods to identify critical temperatures for gelation, including power law viscoelasticity, moduli crossover, diverging zero-shear viscosity, and emerging equilibrium elastic modulus, while visualizing flow consequences near these transitions. Egg yolk is an accessible, realistic, and nontoxic material relevant to the physicist and the chef alike, making it ideal for understanding the rheology of critical gels. By integrating protorheology photos and videos with rigorous rheometric data, we deepen the understanding of critical gels, with broader impacts for studying other materials with sol-gel transitions.

Marsh, Maxwell C. [Department of Mechanical Scienc↗

DOE OSTI2026

New correlated numerical methods for attosecond molecular single and double ionization

This project resulted in the development of ASTRA, a new molecular ionization code capable of describing single and double ionization processes in polyatomic molecules with correlated electrons and time-dependent fields. Key achievements include: (i) the development of the PRISM hybrid-integral library enabling core-ionization and high-angular-momentum convergence; (ii) implementation of time-dependent Schrödinger equation solvers for pump–probe spectroscopies; (iii) validation against experimental and theoretical benchmarks for atoms and molecules; and (iv) extension to two-photon double ionization using the finite-pulse virtual-sequential model. These developments establish ASTRA as a versatile platform for attosecond molecular dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Full-Induction Magnetohydrodynamics Solver for Liquid Metal Fusion Blankets in Vertex-CFD

Multiphysics modeling of liquid metal fusion blankets, which produce tritium and convert energy of neutrons created via fusion reactions into heat, is crucial for predicting performance, ensuring structural integrity, and optimizing energy production. While traditional blanket modeling of liquid metal flows during normal steady operating conditions commonly employs the inductionless approximation of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, transient scenarios, when the plasma-confining magnetic field varies on millisecond time scales, require a full-induction MHD approach that dynamically evolves the magnetic field via the time-dependent induction equation. This paper presents the formulation, implementation, and initial verification of a full-induction MHD solver integrated within the open-source Vertex-CFD framework, which aims to achieve tight multiphysics coupling, a flexible software design enabling easy extension and addition of physics models, and performance portability across computing platforms. The solver utilizes finite element spatial discretization, implicit Runge–Kutta time integration, and an inexact Newton method to solve the resulting discrete nonlinear system, leveraging Trilinos packages for efficient computation. Verification against selected benchmark problems demonstrates accuracy and robustness of the solver. Furthermore, when the solver is applied to an idealized blanket model in 2.5D and full 3D, results obtained with Vertex-CFD are in good agreement with recently published quasi-2D simulations. These findings establish a computational foundation for future simulations of transient MHD phenomena in liquid metal blankets with Vertex-CFD, and open avenues for future extensions and performance optimizations.

Endeve, Eirik [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312519507)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Muon-induced fission of actinide nuclei

A negative muon captured by an actinide cascades down through the muonic atomic levels; deeply bound transitions can proceed via inverse internal conversion, depositing the muonic transition energy directly into the nucleus and, when the deposited energy exceeds the fission barrier, inducing prompt fission. Because the muon mean lifetime exceeds the saddle-to-scission timescale by orders of magnitude, the muon can survive the entire fission event as a 1⁢𝑠 spectator and ultimately attach to one or both of the emerging fragments. Its postscission attachment probability to the light fragment, 𝑃 𝐿 , can be used as a direct electromagnetic probe of fission dynamics on a timescale of 10 −21 s. In previous work, we introduced a three-dimensional lattice solution of the time-dependent Dirac equation coupled to the electromagnetic field generated by a fissioning nucleus and reported 𝑃 𝐿 for several actinides at a single dissipation strength. In this work, we extend that framework to a systematic survey of 232 Th , 238 U , and 240 Pu and implement a more realistic fission model which incorporates dynamic pairing correlations. We find that 𝑃 𝐿 falls steeply with the fragment charge asymmetry, a robust structural fingerprint of the fissioning system, while its dependence on nuclear dissipation is secondary and sensitive to the phenomenological friction prescription. These results establish 𝑃 𝐿 as a clean electromagnetic probe of fragment charge asymmetry and motivate a self-consistent, coordinate- and time-dependent treatment of nuclear dissipation as the natural next step.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Total absorption spectroscopy of two isomers in 70 Cu influencing nucleosynthesis signatures

Isomers have long been known to be important for astrophysical nucleosynthesis processes, yet they are often neglected in network calculations due to computational limitations or lack of data. "Astromers" are astrophysically metastable nuclear states that can greatly impact nucleosynthesis pathways. In this work we show that astromers further impact the time-dependent electromagnetic signal during heavy element nucleosynthesis. In an experiment performed at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, three 𝛽-decaying states of 70 Cu (6 − ground state, and two isomeric states: 3 − and 1 + ) were produced. 𝛽-feeding values were extracted from experimental spectra and compared to shell-model and QRPA+PVC calculations. Here, average 𝛾-ray energies from the 𝛽-decay events were incorporated into simulations of heavy element nucleosynthesis and were found to exhibit different energy release profiles over time, which may impact, in aggregate, time-dependent observable signals.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions to the finite element problem, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2026

TANTE: Time-adaptive operator learning via neural Taylor expansion

Operator learning for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) has seen rapid progress in recent years, enabling efficient approximation of complex spatiotemporal dynamics. However, most existing methods rely on fixed time step sizes during rollout, which limits their ability to adapt to varying temporal complexity and often leads to error accumulation. In this work, we propose the Time-Adaptive Transformer with Neural Taylor Expansion (TANTE), a novel operator-learning framework that produces continuous-time predictions with adaptive step sizes. TANTE predicts future states by performing a Taylor expansion at the current state, where neural networks learn both the higher-order temporal derivatives and the local radius of convergence. This allows the model to dynamically adjust its rollout based on the local behavior of the solution, thereby reducing cumulative error and improving computational efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TANTE across a wide range of PDE benchmarks, achieving superior accuracy and adaptability compared to fixed-step baselines, delivering accuracy gains of 60-80 % and speed-ups of 30-40 % at inference time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Relative Source Time Functions, Spectral Ratios, and Near‐Source Spallation in the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Chemical Explosions

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I was composed of six chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Sites (NNSS) between 2011 and 2016. The experiment provided a robust set of dense, local to regional distance observations suitable for characterizing shallow chemical explosions located within the same borehole. We investigate the time-dependent source processes of each chemical explosion using Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) estimation, derived from five linear seismometer profiles located between 100 and 2000 m of the shot location. The RSTF estimate provide a detailed characterization of each chemical explosion's time-history. Subsequent modeling efforts suggest these measurements may be useful for precise characterization of explosion processes and spallation. RSTF estimation allows us to expand our understanding of the SPE Phase I chemical explosion series. Application of these techniques contributes to our understanding of explosion source physics and facilitates future applications to additional seismic source experiments and characterization of explosion phenomenology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fermionic mean-field dynamics for spin systems beyond free fermions

We introduce the fermionized time-dependent Hartree–Fock (fTDHF), a real-time quantum dynamics method for spin-1/2 Hamiltonians following their mapping to fermions via the Jordan-Wigner transformation. fTDHF is formally equivalent to exact dynamics in the case of free fermions, and can efficiently handle non-local string operators arising from long-range interactions via transition matrix elements between non-orthogonal Slater determinants. We show that the fTDHF method can be implemented on a classical computer with a cost that scales polynomially with system size, and linearly with the time steps. We benchmark fTDHF against exact dynamics on three separate spin-1/2 models, representing adiabatic preparation of states with long-range correlations, disorder-driven observation of many-body localization, and particle production in the Schwinger model. For each of these systems, fTDHF is shown to reproduce the qualitative dynamics generated by the exact evolutions, while maintaining a simple physical picture due to its mean-field nature.

Dutta, Rishab↗