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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Optimization for Lithium-Ion Battery Systems

Health management of lithium-ion battery systems presents a host of challenges due to their complex physics, large numbers of components, and a wide variety of degradation behaviors across different battery types. Dr. Paul Gasper will present on research from the Electrochemical Energy Storage Group on Lithium-ion battery diagnostics, prognostics, and optimization. Diagnostics research, including state-estimation via machine-learning from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and DC pulses as well as continuous state-estimation via Kalman filters, will highlight the ongoing challenges for accurately measuring the state of batteries without performing time-consuming characterization tests. NLR's industry-recognized battery prognostics work, which predicts real-world battery degradation by identifying degradation rate models from accelerated aging data using statistical modeling and machine-learning, will be used to demonstrate the critical impact of battery controls, thermal management, and operating strategy on durability and lifetime. Finally, the use of prognostic models for financial or lifetime optimization will be discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the viscoplastic response of a crystallizing fluoropolymer using transient network theory

We employ a molecular theory of dynamic polymer networks to describe the viscoplastic response of rubbery FK-800, a thermoplastic copolymer of chlorotrifluoroethylene and vinylidene fluoride, over a broad range of thermal histories. The kinetics of crystallization at different annealing temperatures was modeled using a modified Avrami equation, whose parameters were found to evolve through simple relationships over the full temperature range of the rubbery state. By fitting experimental compression data, we discovered predictable trends for the physical parameters in our mechanical model over its full range of crystallinities (up to ≈20%) and provided insights based on molecular-level physics to justify them. Using this, an end-to-end model was developed to predict the yielding and post-yield behavior of rubbery FK-800 for arbitrary thermal histories. The model successfully predicted the highly nonlinear evolution of characteristic mechanical signatures (stiffness, yield point, post-yield drop) throughout the crystallization process. A statistical analysis of variance test was employed to determine that the measured variations in the mechanical behavior of rubbery FK-800 are primarily dictated by its fractional crystallinity, regardless of its exact thermal history.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirically-calibrated H100 node power models for accurate AI training energy estimation

Accurately quantifying the energy use of artificial intelligence (AI) training is critical for infrastructure planning, carbon accounting, and sustainable data center operation, but few studies have directly measured the power consumption of production workloads on contemporary hardware. By combining empirical measurements from Brookhaven National Laboratory during AI training on 8-graphics-processing-unit H100 systems with open-source benchmarking data, we develop statistical models relating computational intensity to node-level power consumption. We measure the gap between manufacturer-rated thermal design power (TDP) and actual power demand during AI training. Our analysis reveals that even computationally intensive workloads operate at only 76% of the 10.2 kW TDP rating. Our architecture-specific model, calibrated to floating-point operations, predicts energy consumption with 11.4% mean absolute percentage error, significantly outperforming TDP-based approaches (27%–37% error). We identified distinct power signatures between transformer and convolutional neural network architectures, with transformers showing characteristic fluctuations that may impact grid stability. These results provide a measurement-grounded basis for improving AI training energy estimates, enabling more reliable infrastructure sizing, cost projections, and environmental impact assessments.

Newkirk, Alex C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Gradient Effects on Local Hotspot Ignition in 1,3,5,7‐Tetranitro‐1,3,5,7‐tetrazocane (HMX)

Understanding hotspot ignition, growth, and criticality, as well as the timescales of each, is crucial for parameterizing mesoscale and continuum‐level models that rely on a statistical understanding of hotspots. However, these models often consider hotspots to have uniform temperatures or for hotspots of a given temperature and size to always behave the same. Therefore, using molecular dynamics simulations, we assess the influence of thermal distribution effects on hotspot local ignition and time to ignition in 1,3,5,7‐tetranitro‐1,3,5,7‐tetrazocane (HMX) nanoscale hotspots. Finally, by assessing hotspots with a gradient driven from an initial two‐temperature core–shell setup, we show that small increases in the core temperature under a constant average temperature can lead to order‐of‐magnitude effects on reaction and local ignition timescales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collisional Excitation of HCN by CO to Refine the Modeling of Cometary Comae

Here, we present the first dataset of collisional (de)-excitation rate coefficients of HCN induced by CO, one of the main perturbing gases in cometary atmospheres. The dataset spans the temperature range of 5–50 K. It includes both state-to-state rate coefficients involving the lowest ten and nine rotational levels of HCN and CO, respectively, and the so-called “thermalized” rate coefficients over the rotational population of CO at each kinetic temperature. The derivation of these coefficients exploited the good performance of the statistical adiabatic channel model (SACM) on top of an accurate interaction potential computed at the CCSD(T)-F12b/CBS level of theory. The reliability of the SACM approach was validated by comparison with full quantum calculations restricted at the lowest total angular momentum of the system. These results provide essential input to accurately model the distribution among the rotational energy levels and the abundance of HCN in cometary atmospheres, accounting for deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium that typically occurs in such environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting H I -Galaxy Cross-Clustering Signal through Higher-Order Cross-Correlations

After reionization, neutral hydrogen (${\rm H\, \small {I}}$) traces the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe, enabling ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ intensity mapping (IM) to capture the LSS in 3D and constrain key cosmological parameters. We present a new framework utilizing higher-order cross-correlations to study ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ clustering around galaxies, tested using real-space data from the IllustrisTNG300 simulation. This approach computes the joint distributions of k-nearest neighbor (kNN) optical galaxies and the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ brightness temperature field smoothed at relevant scales (the kNN-field framework), providing sensitivity to all higher-order cross-correlations, unlike two-point statistics. To simulate ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$ data from actual surveys, we add random thermal noise and apply a simple foreground cleaning model, filtering out Fourier modes of the brightness temperature field with k ∥ < k min,∥ . Under current levels of thermal noise and foreground cleaning, typical of a Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME)-like survey, the ${\rm H\, \small {I}}$-galaxy cross-correlation signal in our simulations, using the kNN-field framework, is detectable at >30σ across r = [3, 12] h –1 Mpc. In contrast, the detectability of the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) over the same scales depends strongly on the foreground filter: a sharp k ∥ filter can spuriously boost detection to 8σ due to position-space ringing, whereas a less sharp filter yields no detection. Nonetheless, we conclude that kNN-field cross-correlations are robustly detectable across a broad range of foreground filtering and thermal noise conditions, suggesting their potential for enhanced constraining power over 2PCFs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Burnup LOCA Burst Susceptibility BISON Analysis in PWRs and BWRs

Accurately assessing high-burnup fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) is essential for understanding fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) risks across the US light-water reactor fleet. This work updates previous Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program multiphysics LOCA analyses for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a boiling water reactor (BWR) by incorporating recent model and material property advancements in the BISON fuel performance code, including a high-burnup structure (HBS) model, revised cladding burst criteria, and updated thermal–mechanical correlations. This update was needed to support ongoing industry initiatives and upcoming regulatory changes. Full-core, rod-resolved operating histories generated using Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA) and system-level LOCA conditions obtained from TRACE were applied to statistically representative rod samples in BISON to evaluate burst behavior and FFRD susceptibility. These calculations used two cladding burst correlations and three fuel pulverization models so that the predictions of these models could be compared. The updated PWR simulations show markedly improved numerical stability as the number of crashed simulations decreased by 95% compared to the previous study, and hence higher confidence in results. The updated PWR simulations predicted cladding bursts exclusively among once-burned, high-power rods, with two different cladding burst models identifying the same burst-susceptible population. Resulting FFRD susceptibility estimates are significantly reduced compared with earlier studies, driven by cooler predicted fuel and plenum temperatures, lower hoop strains, and reduced fission gas release in the updated models. In contrast, none of the BWR rods were predicted to burst under either burst criterion, reaffirming minimal BWR FFRD susceptibility even with updated HBS and material models. Comparisons between the PWR and BWR end-of-cycle predictions are made. Comparison with prior work highlights significant shifts in PWR fuel performance metrics and confirmation of earlier BWR conclusions. Overall, the updated results underscore the importance of having high-resolution detailed modeling capability and continuously integrating evolving material models and physics into high-resolution multiphysics simulations. The unified assessment presented here strengthens confidence in predicting high-burnup LOCA behavior by improving agreement between different cladding burst correlations. These results also provide an improved foundation for future BISON model development, FFRD susceptibility calculations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities (Version 2)

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model’s suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel performance analysis of fully-resolved TRISO compact

The TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel multilayered coating structure offers multiple barriers to fission product release, enhancing safety and performance. The heterogeneous nature of TRISO fuel compacts, comprising thousands of randomly distributed coated fuel particles embedded in a graphite matrix, creates intricate stress fields and thermal gradients that cannot be accurately modeled using simplified one-dimensional or homogenized approaches. Consequently, three-dimensional modeling enables the prediction of fuel compact dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport pathways under diverse irradiation and thermal conditions. This capability facilitates detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating failures, which directly impact fuel performance and safety margins. This capability is particularly critical for advanced reactors, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV reactor designs where TRISO fuel operates at elevated temperatures and burn-up levels. This work introduces a novel method to generate an optimized packing of TRISO compacts and a complete 3D mesh with random distribution of TRISO particles, which are discretized into each coating component layer.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Results of the Direct Numerical Simulation of Transient Flows

This report presents the first direct numerical simulations (DNS) of transient mixed convection in an idealized downcomer-like channel (Challenge Problem 1, Phase II). Using the GPU-accelerated NekRS solver, we modeled a sudden decay in driving pressure, mimicking loss-of-flow events, and tracked the resulting evolution of Reynolds number, boundary-layer structure, turbulence statistics, and heat-transfer metrics. Key findings include the systematic thickening and eventual asymmetry of velocity and thermal boundary layers under buoyant deceleration; minimal “memory” lag in Reynolds shear stress and TKE profiles when sampled at matching Re, yet clear shifts of peak locations toward the cooled wall; overshoots in transient eddy-viscosity and eddy-diffusivity (and corresponding sub-unity turbulent Prandtl numbers) on the cooled side; and a pronounced transient Nusselt-number enhancement driven by wall-temperature inertia and residual eddy mixing. These effects combined to offer a temporary cooling margin above steady-state predictions during reactor LOF transients. Future work will extend this work to a more complex “Case II” geometry (90° turn + lower plenum) and generate multi-Re/Pr datasets for data-driven turbulence closures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature measurement of Quark-Gluon plasma at different stages

In a Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP), the fundamental building blocks of matter, quarks and gluons, are under extreme conditions of temperature and density. A QGP could exist in the early stages of the Universe, and in various objects and events in the cosmos. The thermodynamic and hydrodynamic properties of the QGP are described by Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) and can be studied in heavy-ion collisions. Despite being a key thermodynamic parameter, the QGP temperature is still poorly known. Thermal lepton pairs (e + e − and μ + μ − ) are ideal penetrating probes of the true temperature of the emitting source, since their invariant-mass spectra suffer neither from strong final-state interactions nor from blue-shift effects due to rapid expansion. Here we measure the QGP temperature using thermal e+e− production at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The average temperature from the low-mass region (in-medium ρ 0 vector-meson dominant) is (2.01 ± 0.23) × 10 12 K, consistent with the chemical freeze-out temperature from statistical models and the phase transition temperature from Lattice QCD. The average temperature from the intermediate mass region (above the ρ0 mass, QGP dominant) is significantly higher at (3.25 ± 0.60) × 10 12 K. This work provides essential experimental thermodynamic measurements to map out the QCD phase diagram and understand the properties of matter under extreme conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Two Arctic Wintertime Boundary Layer States: Disentangling the Role of Cloud and Wind Regimes in Reanalysis and Observations During MOSAiC

The wintertime central Arctic atmosphere comprises a radiatively clear and a radiatively opaque state, which are linked to synoptic forcing and mixed-phase clouds. Weather and climate models often lack process representations surrounding these states, but prior work mostly treated the problem as an aggregate of synoptic conditions, resulting in partially overlapping biases. Here, we disaggregate the Arctic states and confront ERA5 reanalysis with observations from the MOSAiC campaign over the central Arctic sea ice during winter 2019/2020. Low-level winds and liquid water path (LWP) are combined to derive different synoptic classes. Results show that the clear state is primarily formed by weak/moderate winds and the absence of liquid-bearing clouds, while strong winds and enhanced LWP primarily form the radiatively opaque state. ERA5 struggles to reproduce these basic statistics, shows too weak sensitivity of thermal radiation to synoptic forcing, and overestimates thermal radiation for similar LWP amounts. The latter is caused by a warm bias, which has a pronounced inversion structure and is largest in clear and calm conditions. Under strong synoptic forcing, the warm bias is constant with height and discrepancies in mixed-phase cloud altitude appear. Separating synoptic conditions is regarded as useful for process-oriented evaluation of the Arctic troposphere in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 User Guide

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software includes non-power research and test reactor analysis, and it has been used for the conversion to low- enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High Performance Research Reactors such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat reactor safety analysis, such as during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many practical aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for reactor thermal hydraulics analysis. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to fitted functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze every axial node in each lateral stripe of all fuel plates and coolant channels in every fuel element of an entire reactor core. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. In a single execution, STAT7 can be used to perform full core analysis by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of directed flow in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV with the STAR event plane detector

In heavy-ion collision experiments, the global collectivity of final-state particles can be quantified by anisotropic flow coefficients (𝑣 𝑛 ) . The first-order flow coefficient, also referred to as the directed flow (𝑣 1 ), describes the collective sideward motion of produced particles and nuclear fragments in heavy-ion collisions. It carries information on the very early stage of the collision, especially at large pseudorapidity (𝜂), where it is believed to be generated during the nuclear passage time. Directed flow therefore probes the onset of bulk collective dynamics during thermalization, providing valuable experimental guidance to models of the pre-equilibrium stage. In 2018, the Event Plane Detector (EPD) was installed in STAR and used for the Beam Energy Scan phase-II (BES-II) data taking. The combination of EPD (2.1 < |𝜂| < 5.1) and high-statistics BES-II data enables us to extend the 𝑣 1 measurement to the forward and backward 𝜂 regions. In this paper, we present the measurement of 𝑣 1 over a wide 𝜂 range in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV using the STAR EPD. The results of the analysis at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 GeV exhibit excellent consistency with the previous PHOBOS measurement, while elevating the precision of the overall measurement. The increased precision of the measurement also revealed finer structures in heavy-ion collisions, including a potential observation of the first-order event-plane decorrelation. Multiple physics models were compared to the experimental results. Only a transport model and a three-fluid hybrid model can reproduce a sizable 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 as was observed experimentally. The model comparison also indicates 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 might be sensitive to the QGP phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

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