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Numerical Simulations and Diagnostic Studies of Meteorological Conditions During PEM-Tropics B

Provides a final report on the work accomplished by several meteorological scientists under a NASA grant in conjunction with the DC-8 component of Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM)-Tropics B. The responsibilities of the principal investigator included collaboration with the Science Team on flight planning, presentation of forecasts, and the preparation of map discussions for each flight. In a published manuscript, the principal investigator summarized the meteorological conditions during PEM-TB which included mean flow patterns, subtropical anticyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Methodologies used included streamlines, ten day backward trajectories, thermodynamic soundings, and satellite imagery. Other interests included air sampling for the purpose of determining pollution levels.

Fuelberg, Henry E.

Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droughts with unclear long-term context. Here, we have reconstructed a nearly four-century-long spring i.e. February to May (FMAM) precipitation for the Lahaul region of the (WH), an area dominated by the Western Disturbances. This record was developed using moisture-sensitive Cedrus deodara (Deodar) tree-rings from three high-elevation sites. A regional composite tree-ring-width chronology, developed through a Nested Principal Component Analysis and modeled with a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that explains 71 % of the variance during the calibration period. We identified the last two decades as the most precipitation deficit phase and the year 2022 showing the driest FMAM on record. The observed rise in the FMAM dry episodes post 1999 CE in our reconstruction, corresponds to the meteorological records. This recent drying is linked to a northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet and reduced moisture transport, both associated with unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. Our results provide compelling evidence of long-term hydroclimatic instability in the WH and emphasize the value of tree-ring records in extending precipitation histories beyond the instrumental observations. Such reconstructions can be benchmarks to validate high-resolution climate models and formulate adaptation policies to mitigate future risks.

Cedrus deodara

The Research of Dr. Joanne Simpson: Fifty Years Investigating Hurricanes, Tropical Clouds and Cloud Systems

This AMS Meteorological Monographs is dedicated to Dr. Joanne Simpson for her many pioneering research efforts in tropical meteorology during her fifty-year career. Dr. Simpson's major areas of scientific research involved the "hot tower" hypothesis and its role in hurricanes, structure and maintenance of trade winds, air-sea interaction, and observations and the mechanism for hurricanes and waterspouts. She was also a pioneer in cloud modeling with the first one-dimensional model and had the first cumulus model on a computer. She also played a major role in planning and leading observational experiments on convective cloud systems. The launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, a joint U.S.-Japan project, in November of 1997 made it possible for quantitative measurements of tropical rainfall to be obtained on a continuous basis over the entire global tropics. Dr. Simpson was the TRAM Project Scientist from 1986 until its launch in 1997. Her efforts during this crucial period ensured that the mission was both well planned scientifically and well engineered as well as within budget. In this paper, Dr. J. Simpson's nine specific accomplishments during her fifty-year career: (1) hot tower hypothesis, (2) hurricanes, (3) airflow and clouds over heated islands, (4) cloud models, (5) trade winds and their role in cumulus development, (6) air-sea interaction, (7) cloud-cloud interactions and mergers, (8) waterspouts, and (9) TRMM science, will be described and discussed.

Tao, W. -K.

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences

Experimental cumulus dynamics.

Cumulus cloud models improved by data obtained via actual aircraft silver iodide seeding in Project Stormfury

TROPICAL METEOROLOGY

NASA SPoRT Suite of Legacy and Current Satellite Products in Support of Tropical Analysis and Forecasting

The NASA Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. SPoRT has applied data and capabilities from a variety of research-oriented missions to improve the operational analysis and short-term forecasting of the tropical environment and tropical cyclones(TC).Toward researching new products, SPoRT is examining the diurnal cycle of TC intensity by observing changes in precipitation, winds, and midlevel moisture, including the use of NUCAPS soundings to assess the moisture and temperature environment around TCs, as well as examining changes in sounding profiles associated with the TC diurnal cycle. SPoRT has developed capabilities to analyze the evolution and diurnal cycle of GPM/IMERG rain rates and GLM lightning characteristics associated with TC, by compass and up-/down-shear quadrants relative to the cyclone center. As Early Adopters in the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission, SPoRT is also in the process of developing new experimental products utilizing TROPICS data. Furthermore, SPoRT is investigating the relationship between TC intensity and lightning flash size and optical energy. MSFC hosts a GOES ground rebroadcast station which enables the potential for very low latency GLM products. These products provide the ability to monitor tropical regions/systems in data-void oceanic regions and to fill the gaps in traditional observational systems. SPoRT seeks to expand our collaborations with operational centers and other stakeholders to provide new tools to aid in tropical analysis and forecasting.

satellite remote sensing

Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Properties Across the Development Cycle of the GISS-E3 Global Climate Model

The next-generation global climate model from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS-E3, contains many improvements to resolution and physics that allow for improved representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the model. This study examines the properties of TCs in two different versions of E3 at different points in its development cycle, run for 20 years at 0.5 degree resolution, and compares these TCs with observations, the previous generation GISS model, E2, and other climate models. E3 shares many TC biases common to global climate models, such as having too few tropical cyclones, but is much improved from E2. E3 produces strong enough TCs that observation-based wind speed thresholds can now be used to detect and track them, and some storms now reach hurricane intensity; neither of these was true of E2. Model development between the first and second versions of E3 further increased the number and intensity of TCs and reduced TC count biases globally and in most regions. One-year sensitivity tests to changes in various microphysical and dynamical tuning parameters are also examined. Increasing the entrainment rate for the more strongly-entraining plume in the convection scheme increases the number of TCs (though also affecting other climate variables, and in some cases increasing biases). Variations in divergence damping did not have a strong effect on simulated TC properties, contrary to expectations based on previous studies. Overall, the improvements in E3 make it more credible for studies of TC activity and its relationship to climate.

Tropical Cyclones