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Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds

An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health

Crack Growth Behavior in the Threshold Region for High Cycle Fatigue Loading

This paper describes the results of a research program conducted to improve the understanding of fatigue crack growth rate behavior in the threshold growth rate region and to answer a question on the validity of threshold region test data. The validity question relates to the view held by some experimentalists that using the ASTM load shedding test method does not produce valid threshold test results and material properties. The question involves the fanning behavior observed in threshold region of da/dN plots for some materials in which the low R-ratio data fans out from the high R-ratio data. This fanning behavior or elevation of threshold values in the low R-ratio tests is generally assumed to be caused by an increase in crack closure in the low R-ratio tests. Also, the increase in crack closure is assumed by some experimentalists to result from using the ASTM load shedding test procedure. The belief is that this procedure induces load history effects which cause remote closure from plasticity and/or roughness changes in the surface morphology. However, experimental studies performed by the authors have shown that the increase in crack closure is a result of extensive crack tip bifurcations that can occur in some materials, particularly in aluminum alloys, when the crack tip cyclic yield zone size becomes less than the grain size of the alloy. This behavior is related to the high stacking fault energy (SFE) property of aluminum alloys which results in easier slip characteristics. Therefore, the fanning behavior which occurs in aluminum alloys is a function of intrinsic dislocation property of the alloy, and therefore, the fanned data does represent the true threshold properties of the material. However, for the corrosion sensitive steel alloys tested in laboratory air, the occurrence of fanning results from fretting corrosion at the crack tips, and these results should not be considered to be representative of valid threshold properties because the fanning is eliminated when testing is performed in dry air.

Forman, R. G.

CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

conjunction

The influence of crack closure on fatigue crack growth thresholds in 2024-T3 aluminum alloy

Crack opening loads were determined in load-shedding fatigue crack growth threshold tests on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy at stress ratios R of -2, -1, 0, 0.33, 0.5, and 0.7. The effects of load-shedding procedure and rate were investigated. Values of threshold Delta-K were found to vary significantly with R, whereas values of threshold effective Delta-K did not. That is, the variation of threshold Delta-K with R was almost completely explained by accounting for the measured variation in crack opening load behavior with R. The load-shedding guidelines of ASTM Test Method for Measurement of Fatigue Crack Growth (E 647) produced a threshold Delta-K value for R = 0.7 that was in agreement with the value determined using a procedure that should minimize closure effects. At both R = 0 and R = 0.7, high load-shedding rates produced high values of threshold Delta-K caused by large closure effects.

Phillips, Edward P.

Application of a Threshold Method to the TRMM Radar for the Estimation of Space-Time Rain Rate Statistics

One of the TRMM radar products of interest is the monthly-averaged rain rates over 5 x 5 degree cells. Clearly, the most directly way of calculating these and similar statistics is to compute them from the individual estimates made over the instantaneous field of view of the Instrument (4.3 km horizontal resolution). An alternative approach is the use of a threshold method. It has been established that over sufficiently large regions the fractional area above a rain rate threshold and the area-average rain rate are well correlated for particular choices of the threshold [e.g., Kedem et al., 19901]. A straightforward application of this method to the TRMM data would consist of the conversion of the individual reflectivity factors to rain rates followed by a calculation of the fraction of these that exceed a particular threshold. Previous results indicate that for thresholds near or at 5 mm/h, the correlation between this fractional area and the area-average rain rate is high. There are several drawbacks to this approach, however. At the TRMM radar frequency of 13.8 GHz the signal suffers attenuation so that the negative bias of the high resolution rain rate estimates will increase as the path attenuation increases. To establish a quantitative relationship between fractional area and area-average rain rate, an independent means of calculating the area-average rain rate is needed such as an array of rain gauges. This type of calibration procedure, however, is difficult for a spaceborne radar such as TRMM. To estimate a statistic other than the mean of the distribution requires, in general, a different choice of threshold and a different set of tuning parameters.

Meneghini, Robert

Suppression of Random Dopant-Induced Threshold Voltage Fluctuations in Sub-0.1-(micron)meter MOSFET's with Epitaxial and (delta)-Doped Channels

A detailed three-dimensional (3-D) statistical 'atomistic' simulation study of fluctuation-resistant sub-0.1-(micron)meter MOSFET architectures with epitaxial channels and delta doping is presented. The need for enhancing the fluctuation resistance of the sub-0.1-(micron)meter generation transistors is highlighted by presenting summarized results from atomistic simulations of a wide range of conventional devices with uniformly doped channel. According to our atomistic results, the doping concentration dependence of the random dopant-induced threshold voltage fluctuations in conventional devices is stronger than the analytically predicted fourth-root dependence. As a result of this, the scaling of such devices will be restricted by the "intrinsic" random dopant-induced fluctuations earlier than anticipated. Our atomistic simulations confirm that the introduction of a thin epitaxial layer in the MOSFET's channel can efficiently suppress the random dopant-induced threshold voltage fluctuations in sub-0.1-(micron)meter devices. For the first time, we observe an "anomalous" reduction in the threshold voltage fluctuations with an increase in the doping concentration behind the epitaxial channel, which we attribute to screening effects. Also, for the first time we study the effect of a delta-doping, positioned behind the epitaxial layer, on the intrinsic threshold voltage fluctuations. Above a certain thickness of epitaxial layer, we observe a pronounced anomalous decrease in the threshold voltage fluctuation with the increase of the delta doping. This phenomenon, which is also associated with screening, enhances the importance of the delta doping in the design of properly scaled fluctuation-resistant sub-0.1-(micron)meter MOSFET's. Index Terms-Doping, fluctuations, MOSFET, semiconductor device simulation, silicon devices, threshold.

Asenov, Asen

Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Lowering and Fluctuations in Sub-0.1 (micron)meter MOSFET's: A 3-D 'Atomistic' Simulation Study

A three-dimensional (3-D) "atomistic" simulation study of random dopant induced threshold voltage lowering and fluctuations in sub-0.1 microns MOSFET's is presented. For the first time a systematic analysis of random dopant effects down to an individual dopant level was carried out in 3-D on a scale sufficient to provide quantitative statistical predictions. Efficient algorithms based on a single multigrid solution of the Poisson equation followed by the solution of a simplified current continuity equation are used in the simulations. The effects of various MOSFET design parameters, including the channel length and width, oxide thickness and channel doping, on the threshold voltage lowering and fluctuations are studied using typical samples of 200 atomistically different MOSFET's. The atomistic results for the threshold voltage fluctuations were compared with two analytical models based on dopant number fluctuations. Although the analytical models predict the general trends in the threshold voltage fluctuations, they fail to describe quantitatively the magnitude of the fluctuations. The distribution of the atomistically calculated threshold voltage and its correlation with the number of dopants in the channel of the MOSFET's was analyzed based on a sample of 2500 microscopically different devices. The detailed analysis shows that the threshold voltage fluctuations are determined not only by the fluctuation in the dopant number, but also in the dopant position.

Asenov, Asen

Threshold Assessment of Gear Diagnostic Tools on Flight and Test Rig Data

A method for defining thresholds for vibration-based algorithms that provides the minimum number of false alarms while maintaining sensitivity to gear damage was developed. This analysis focused on two vibration based gear damage detection algorithms, FM4 and MSA. This method was developed using vibration data collected during surface fatigue tests performed in a spur gearbox rig. The thresholds were defined based on damage progression during tests with damage. The thresholds false alarm rates were then evaluated on spur gear tests without damage. Next, the same thresholds were applied to flight data from an OH-58 helicopter transmission. Results showed that thresholds defined in test rigs can be used to define thresholds in flight to correctly classify the transmission operation as normal.

Dempsey, Paula J.

Time threshold for second positive phototropism is decreased by a preirradiation with red light

A second positive phototropic response is exhibited by a plant after the time of irradiation has exceeded a time threshold. The time threshold of dark-grown seedlings is about 15 minutes for Arabidopsis thaliana. This threshold is decreased to about 4 minutes by a 669-nanometer preirradiation. Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) seedlings show a similar response. The time threshold of dark-grown seedlings is about 60 minutes for tobacco, and is decreased to about 15 minutes after a preirradiation with either 450- or 669- nanometer light. The existence of a time threshold for second positive phototropism and the dependence of this threshold on the irradiation history of the seedling contribute to the complexity of the fluence response relationship for phototropism.

NASA Discipline Number 40-50

Measuring Input Thresholds on an Existing Board

A critical PECL (positive emitter-coupled logic) interface to Xilinx interface needed to be changed on an existing flight board. The new Xilinx input interface used a CMOS (complementary metal-oxide semiconductor) type of input, and the driver could meet its thresholds typically, but not in worst-case, according to the data sheet. The previous interface had been based on comparison with an external reference, but the CMOS input is based on comparison with an internal divider from the power supply. A way to measure what the exact input threshold was for this device for 64 inputs on a flight board was needed. The measurement technique allowed an accurate measurement of the voltage required to switch a Xilinx input from high to low for each of the 64 lines, while only probing two of them. Directly driving an external voltage was considered too risky, and tests done on any other unit could not be used to qualify the flight board. The two lines directly probed gave an absolute voltage threshold calibration, while data collected on the remaining 62 lines without probing gave relative measurements that could be used to identify any outliers. The PECL interface was forced to a long-period square wave by driving a saturated square wave into the ADC (analog to digital converter). The active pull-down circuit was turned off, causing each line to rise rapidly and fall slowly according to the input s weak pull-down circuitry. The fall time shows up as a change in the pulse width of the signal ready by the Xilinx. This change in pulse width is a function of capacitance, pulldown current, and input threshold. Capacitance was known from the different trace lengths, plus a gate input capacitance, which is the same for all inputs. The pull-down current is the same for all inputs including the two that are probed directly. The data was combined, and the Excel solver tool was used to find input thresholds for the 62 lines. This was repeated over different supply voltages and temperatures to show that the interface had voltage margin under all worst case conditions. Gate input thresholds are normally measured at the manufacturer when the device is on a chip tester. A key function of this machine was duplicated on an existing flight board with no modifications to the nets to be tested, with the exception of changes in the FPGA program.

Kuperman, Igor

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle and to understand the energy budget in terms of precipitation, uniform global estimates of both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. Active observations of falling snow are somewhat easier to estimate since the radar will detect the precipitation particles and one only needs to know surface temperature to determine if it is liquid rain or snow. The challenges of estimating falling snow from passive spaceborne observations still exist though progress is being made. While these challenges are still being addressed, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Important information to assess falling snow retrievals includes knowing thresholds of detection for active and passive sensors, various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (~2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (Iwe) at the surface of 0.25 g m-3 and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The analysis relies on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Results are presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz (Skofronick-Jackson, et al. submitted to IEEE TGRS, April 2012). The notable results show: (1) the W-Band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM sensors, (2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels, (3) the snowflake microphysics plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments, (4) with reasonable assumptions, the passive 166 GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to the GPM DPR Ku and Ka band radars with ~0.05 g m-3 detected at the surface, or an ~0.5-1 mm hr-l melted snow rate (equivalent to 0.5-2 cm hr-l solid fluffy snowflake rate).

Jackson, Gail

A Universal Threshold for the Assessment of Load and Output Residuals of Strain-Gage Balance Data

A new universal residual threshold for the detection of load and gage output residual outliers of wind tunnel strain{gage balance data was developed. The threshold works with both the Iterative and Non{Iterative Methods that are used in the aerospace testing community to analyze and process balance data. It also supports all known load and gage output formats that are traditionally used to describe balance data. The threshold's definition is based on an empirical electrical constant. First, the constant is used to construct a threshold for the assessment of gage output residuals. Then, the related threshold for the assessment of load residuals is obtained by multiplying the empirical electrical constant with the sum of the absolute values of all first partial derivatives of a given load component. The empirical constant equals 2.5 microV/V for the assessment of balance calibration or check load data residuals. A value of 0.5 microV/V is recommended for the evaluation of repeat point residuals because, by design, the calculation of these residuals removes errors that are associated with the regression analysis of the data itself. Data from a calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new threshold definitions to real{world balance calibration data.

wind tunnel balance

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow From Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

There is an increased interest in detecting and estimating the amount of falling snow reaching the Earths surface in order to fully capture the global atmospheric water cycle. An initial step toward global spaceborne falling snow algorithms for current and future missions includes determining the thresholds of detection for various active and passive sensor channel configurations and falling snow events over land surfaces and lakes. In this paper, cloud resolving model simulations of lake effect and synoptic snow events were used to determine the minimum amount of snow (threshold) that could be detected by the following instruments: the W-band radar of CloudSat, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR)Ku- and Ka-bands, and the GPM Microwave Imager. Eleven different nonspherical snowflake shapes were used in the analysis. Notable results include the following: 1) The W-band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM radars; 2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels (e.g., snow events with larger ice water paths and thicker clouds are easier to detect); 3) the snowflake microphysics (mainly shape and density)plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments; 4) with reasonable assumptions, the passive 166-GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to those of the GPM DPR Ku- and Ka-band radars with approximately 0.05 g *m(exp -3) detected at the surface, or an approximately 0.5-1.0-mm * h(exp -1) melted snow rate. This paper provides information on the light snowfall events missed by the sensors and not captured in global estimates.

remote sensing

Relationship Between Unusual High-Temperature Fatigue Crack Growth Threshold Behavior in Superalloys and Sudden Failure Mode Transitions

An investigation of high temperature cyclic fatigue crack growth (FCG) threshold behavior of two advanced nickel disk alloys was conducted. The focus of the study was the unusual crossover effect in the near-threshold region of these type of alloys where conditions which produce higher crack growth rates in the Paris regime, produce higher resistance to crack growth in the near threshold regime. It was shown that this crossover effect is associated with a sudden change in the fatigue failure mode from a predominant transgranular mode in the Paris regime to fully intergranular mode in the threshold fatigue crack growth region. This type of a sudden change in the fracture mechanisms has not been previously reported and is surprising considering that intergranular failure is typically associated with faster crack growth rates and not the slow FCG rates of the near-threshold regime. By characterizing this behavior as a function of test temperature, environment and cyclic frequency, it was determined that both the crossover effect and the onset of intergranular failure are caused by environmentally driven mechanisms which have not as yet been fully identified. A plausible explanation for the observed behavior is proposed.

Fatigue Crack Growth Thresholds; Grain boundary ox

Relationship Between Unusual High-Temperature Fatigue Crack Growth Threshold Behavior in Superalloys and Sudden Failure Mode Transitions

An investigation of high temperature cyclic fatigue crack growth (FCG) threshold behavior of two advanced nickel disk alloys was conducted. The focus of the study was the unusual crossover effect in the near-threshold region of these type of alloys where conditions which produce higher crack growth rates in the Paris regime, produce higher resistance to crack growth in the near threshold regime. It was shown that this crossover effect is associated with a sudden change in the fatigue failure mode from a predominant transgranular mode in the Paris regime to fully intergranular mode in the threshold fatigue crack growth region. This type of a sudden change in the fracture mechanisms has not been previously reported and is surprising considering that intergranular failure is typically associated with faster crack growth rates and not the slow FCG rates of the near-threshold regime. By characterizing this behavior as a function of test temperature, environment and cyclic frequency, it was determined that both the crossover effect and the onset of intergranular failure are caused by environmentally driven mechanisms which have not as yet been fully identified. A plausible explanation for the observed behavior is proposed.

Fatigue Crack Growth Thresholds; Grain boundary ox

Threshold kinetic processes for t-C4F9I

To determine the relative threshold of the lasant gas t-C4F9I in comparison to n-C3F7I, the pump energy to reach threshold for photodissociation iodine lasing is measured in a common aparatus. The comparison is made for the threshold energies in the iodide pressure range up to 50 Torr when 64-J electric input into a flashlamp is used for pumping. It is shown from the results that qualitative differences between the thresholds of the two gases result from the degree to which steady state is achieved by the time threshold is reached. The estimated recombination rate for t-C4F9I is found to be much larger than the value given by Ershov et al (1978).

Lee, J. H.

High-power low-threshold graded-index separate confinement heterostructure AlGaAs single quantum well lasers on Si substrates

A high-power low-threshold graded-index separate confinement heterostructure AlGaAs single quantum well laser on Si substrates has been demonstrated for the first time by a hybrid growth of migration-enhanced molecular beam epitaxy followed by metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy. The quantum well laser showed an output power of more than 400 mW per facet under pulsed conditions. A room-temperature threshold current of 300 mA was obtained with a differential quantum efficiency of 40 percent without facet coating. The threshold current density was 550 A/sq cm for a cavity length of 500 microns. These results show the highest peak power reported to date for low-threshold lasers on Si substrates. The full width at half maximum of the far-field pattern parallel to the junction was 6 deg. Threshold current densities as low as 250 A/sq cm were obtained for lasers on GaAs substrates.

Kim, Jae-Hoon

An analysis of the threshold method for measuring area-average rainfall

Experimental evidence shows that the area-average rain rate and the fractional area covered by rain rate exceeding a fixed threshold are highly correlated; that is, are highly linearly related. A precise theoretical explanation of this fact is given. The explanation is based on the observation that rain rate has a mixed distribution, one that is a mixture of a discrete distribution and a continuous distribution. Under a homogeneity assumption, the slope of the linear relationship depends only on the continuous part of the distribution and as such is found to be markedly immune to parameter changes. This is illustrated by certain slope surfaces obtained from three specific distributions. The threshold level can be chosen in an optimal way by minimizing a certain distance function defined over the threshold range. In general, the threshold level should be not too far from the mean rain rate conditional on rain. The so-called threshold method advocates measuring rainfall from fractional area exploiting the observed linear relationship of the later with the area average rain rate. The method is potentially useful for the estimation of rainfall from space via satellites.

Kedem, Benjamin