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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of weak lensing by NFW and Einasto halos and systematic errors

Recent N-body simulations have shown that Einasto radial profiles provide the most accurate description of dark matter halos. Predictions based on the traditional NFW functional form may fail to describe the structural properties of cosmic objects at the percent level required by precision cosmology. We computed the systematic errors expected for weak lensing analyses of clusters of galaxies if one wrongly models the lens density profile. Even though the NFW fits of observed tangential shear profiles can be excellent, viral masses and concentrations of very massive halos (∼> 10{sup 15}M{sub ⊙}/h) can be over- and underestimated by 0∼ 1 per cent, respectively. Misfitting effects also steepen the observed mass-concentration relation, as observed in multi-wavelength observations of galaxy groups and clusters. Based on shear analyses, Einasto and NFW halos can be set apart either with deep observations of exceptionally massive structures (∼> 2×10{sup 15}M{sub ⊙}/h) or by stacking the shear profiles of thousands of group-sized lenses (∼> 10{sup 14}M{sub ⊙}/h)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sources of the systematic errors in measurements of {sup 214}Po decay half-life time variations at the Baksan deep underground experiments

The design changes of the Baksan low-background TAU-1 and TAU-2 set-ups allowed to improve a sensitivity of {sup 214}Po half-life (τ) measurements up to the 2.5 × 10{sup −4} are described. Different possible sources of systematic errors influencing on the τ-value are studied. An annual variation of {sup 214}Po half-life time measurements with an amplitude of A = (6.9 ± 3) × 10{sup −4} and a phase of φ = 93 ± 10 days was found in a sequence of the week-collected τ-values obtained from the TAU-2 data sample with total duration of 480 days. 24 hours’ variation of the t-value measurements with an amplitude of A = (10.0 ± 2.6) × 10{sup −4} and phase of φ = 1 ± 0.5 hours was found in a solar day 1 hour step t-value sequence formed from the same data sample. It was found that the {sup 214}Po half-life averaged at 480 days is equal to 163.45 ± 0.04 μs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE SYSTEMATIC ERROR TEST FOR PSF CORRECTION IN WEAK GRAVITATIONAL LENSING SHEAR MEASUREMENT BY THE ERA METHOD BY IDEALIZING PSF

We improve the ellipticity of re-smeared artificial image (ERA) method of point-spread function (PSF) correction in a weak lensing shear analysis in order to treat the realistic shape of galaxies and the PSF. This is done by re-smearing the PSF and the observed galaxy image using a re-smearing function (RSF) and allows us to use a new PSF with a simple shape and to correct the PSF effect without any approximations or assumptions. We perform a numerical test to show that the method applied for galaxies and PSF with some complicated shapes can correct the PSF effect with a systematic error of less than 0.1%. We also apply the ERA method for real data of the Abell 1689 cluster to confirm that it is able to detect the systematic weak lensing shear pattern. The ERA method requires less than 0.1 or 1 s to correct the PSF for each object in a numerical test and a real data analysis, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Systematic errors in low-latency gravitational wave parameter estimation impact electromagnetic follow-up observations

Among the most eagerly anticipated opportunities made possible by Advanced LIGO/Virgo are multimessenger observations of compact mergers. Optical counterparts may be short-lived so rapid characterization of gravitational wave (GW) events is paramount for discovering electromagnetic signatures. One way to meet the demand for rapid GW parameter estimation is to trade off accuracy for speed, using waveform models with simplified treatment of the compact objects’ spin. We report on the systematic errors in GW parameter estimation suffered when using different spin approximations to recover generic signals. Component mass measurements can be biased by >5σ using simple-precession waveforms and in excess of 20σ when non-spinning templates are employed. This suggests that electromagnetic observing campaigns should not take a strict approach to selecting which LIGO/Virgo candidates warrant follow-up observations based on low-latency mass estimates. For sky localization, we find that searched areas are up to a factor of ∼2 larger for non-spinning analyses, and are systematically larger for any of the simplified waveforms considered in our analysis. Distance biases for the non-precessing waveforms can be in excess of 100% and are largest when the spin angular momenta are in the orbital plane of the binary. We confirm that spin-aligned waveforms should be used for low-latency parameter estimation at the minimum. Including simple precession, though more computationally costly, mitigates biases except for signals with extreme precession effects. Our results shine a spotlight on the critical need for development of computationally inexpensive precessing waveforms and/or massively parallel algorithms for parameter estimation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Managing systematic errors in the NBSR thermal power calorimetric measurements - 214

There has been a calorimetric misbalance between the primary and secondary loops of the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR) since the installation of a set of new heat exchangers in the early 90's. The NBSR's primary and secondary process instrumentation were investigated to resolve the underlying causes. The main issue was found to be the immersion length of the thermowells, resulting in non-exemplary process measurements. Furthermore, thermal insulation on various temperature sensors was found to be degraded. Hence, the following were found to be inconsistent: the heat exchanger output temperatures, previously-used differential temperature sensors, reactor inlet sensor, and the reactor outlet temperature indications. Therefore, thermodynamic analyses using these sensor measurements were inconclusive. Secondly, the discrepancy between primary and secondary loops and the gradual inconsistency between primary side sensors went largely unnoticed. We implemented sustainable, state-of-the-art upgrades to resolve systematic errors in the NBSR reactor thermal process instrumentation. Several digital upgrades were completed, along with detailed 50.59 reviews. Redundancy, defense-in-depth, reliability, diversity and accuracy of the thermal monitoring system was established by implementing an inclusive engineering approach by analyzing the sensors as a whole system instead of individual assessments. The upgrades produced two important outcomes. First, the long-term existing calorimetric discrepancy between the primary and secondary loops was resolved. Secondly, excellent agreement was achieved within the primary process measurement instrumentation, resulting in reliable and stable thermal power assessment. We will present lessons learned performing instrumentation upgrades and our future enhancement plans in process monitoring for the NBSR reactor. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sub 20 cm -1 computational prediction of the CH bond energy – a case of systematic error in computational thermochemistry

Here, the bond dissociation energy of methylidyne, D 0 (CH), is studied using an improved version of the High-Accuracy Extrapolated ab initio Thermochemistry (HEAT) approach as well as the Feller–Peterson–Dixon (FPD) model chemistry. These calculations, which include basis sets up to nonuple (aug-cc-pCV9Z) quality, are expected to be capable of providing results substantially more accurate than the ca. 1 kJ mol -1 level that is characteristic of standard high-accuracy protocols for computational thermochemistry. The calculated 0 K CH bond energy (27 954 ± 15 cm -1 for HEAT and 27 956 ± 15 cm -1 for FPD), along with equivalent treatments of the CH ionization energy and the CH + dissociation energy (85 829 ± 15 cm -1 and 32 946 ± 15 cm -1 , respectively), were compared to the existing benchmarks from Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT), uncovering an unexpected difference for D 0 (CH). This has prompted a detailed reexamination of the provenance of the corresponding ATcT benchmark, allowing the discovery and subsequent correction of a systematic error present in several published high-level calculations, ultimately yielding an amended ATcT benchmark for D 0 (CH). Finally, the current theoretical results were added to the ATcT Thermochemical Network, producing refined ATcT estimates of 27 957.3 ± 6.0 cm -1 for D0(CH), 32 946.7 ± 0.6 cm -1 for D 0 (CH + ), and 85 831.0 ± 6.0 cm -1 for IE(CH).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physically based correction of systematic errors of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers

Accurate measurements of direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI, DHI and GHI) are needed for meteorological studies and are essential for the solar resource assessment at potential solar power plant sites. Often, these potential sites are remote and hence require robust sensors that require minimal maintenance that are not affected strongly by soiling. Therefore, Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) are widely used for resource assessment. To achieve the required accuracy, corrections for the raw values of RSIs depending on systematic temperature, incidence angle and spectral errors must be used, and a thorough calibration of the sensor head must be applied. The existing correction functions are derived from comparisons of RSIs to thermopile radiometers at selected sites and therefore empirical. Their accuracy is considered to be site dependent. In this work a new correction and calibration method is presented that removes the systematic errors using a physical approach. It is based on information of the sensor properties as well as measurements of its directional response, and incorporates the atmospheric conditions at the measurement site. In this case, no empiric relations obtained from a specific site are required. The method requires estimates of the current DHI and GHI spectra during each measurement of the RSI. Based on these spectra, a spectral correction, which includes a spectrum dependent temperature correction, can be made without employing empirical relationships. The new physical calibration and correction method is tested at three sites and reaches similar results compared to the empirical functions. This is already achieved with rudimentary estimations of the GHI and DHI spectra and we expect that these estimations can be improved in the future. The results indicate that the physical approach reduces the problematic location dependence of the current calibration and correction methods. The physical correction and calibration method show promise for a further improvement of the RSI accuracy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Halogen Thermochemistry Assessed with Density Functional Theory: Systematic Errors, Swift Corrections and Effects on Electrochemistry

Abstract Despite its sizable errors, density functional theory (DFT) is extensively used to evaluate thermochemical properties of gases, liquids and their interfaces with solids. As numerous halogen‐containing compounds appear as reactants, products and/or electrolytes in electrochemical reactions, and ionic effects are currently an active area of research, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of DFT for halogen thermochemistry. Herein, we assess the formation energies of interhalogens, hydrogen halides, diatomic and atomic halogens and their ions using six widespread functionals at the GGA, meta‐GGA and hybrid levels. We observe that DFT errors with respect to experiments are correlated with the electronegativity of the species and there are systematic trends across functionals, such that swift corrections were devised. Specifically, the average of the mean absolute errors for the six functionals decreased from 0.19 eV before the corrections to 0.08 eV after them. Besides, the overall maximum absolute error (MAX) decreased from 0.76 to 0.44 eV and the average of the MAXs decreased from 0.51 to 0.24 eV. Finally, we illustrate the qualitative and quantitative impact of gas‐phase errors on the predictions of surface Pourbaix diagrams.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2018

Constituent quarks and systematic errors in mid-rapidity charged multiplicity dN ch /dη distributions

Centrality definition in A + A collisions at colliders such as RHIC and LHC suffers from a correlated systematic uncertainty caused by the efficiency of detecting a p + p collision (50 ± 5% for PHENIX at RHIC). In A + A collisions where centrality is measured by the number of nucleon collisions, N coll , or the number of nucleon participants, N part , or the number of constituent quark participants, N qp , the error in the efficiency of the primary interaction trigger (Beam–Beam Counters) for a p + p collision leads to a correlated systematic uncertainty in N part , N coll or N qp which reduces binomially as the A + A collisions become more central. If this is not correctly accounted for in projections of A + A to p + p collisions, then mistaken conclusions can result. Finally, a recent example is presented in whether the mid-rapidity charged multiplicity per constituent quark participant d(N ch /dη)/N qp in Au + Au at RHIC was the same as the value in p + p collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BICEP/Keck. XVII. Line-of-sight Distortion Analysis: Estimates of Gravitational Lensing, Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence, Patchy Reionization, and Systematic Errors

We present estimates of line-of-sight distortion fields derived from the 95 and 150 GHz data taken by BICEP2, BICEP3, and the Keck Array up to the 2018 observing season, leading to cosmological constraints and a study of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. Cosmological constraints are derived from three of the distortion fields concerning gravitational lensing from large-scale structure, polarization rotation from magnetic fields or an axion-like field, and the screening effect of patchy reionization. We measure an amplitude of the lensing power spectrum ${A}_{L}^{\phi \phi }=0.95\pm 0.20$. We constrain polarization rotation, expressed as the coupling constant of a Chern–Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 2.6 × 10 -2 /H I , where H I is the inflationary Hubble parameter, and an amplitude of primordial magnetic fields smoothed over 1 Mpc B 1Mpc ≤ 6.6 nG at 95 GHz. We constrain the rms of optical depth fluctuations in a simple "crinkly surface" model of patchy reionization, finding A τ < 0.19 (2σ) for the coherence scale of L c = 100. We show that all of the distortion fields of the 95 and 150 GHz polarization maps are consistent with simulations including lensed ΛCDM, dust, and noise, with no evidence for instrumental systematics. In some cases, the EB and TB quadratic estimators presented here are more sensitive than our previous map-based null tests at identifying and rejecting spurious B-modes that might arise from instrumental effects. Finally, we verify that the standard deprojection filtering in the BICEP/Keck data processing is effective at removing temperature to polarization leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Quest for the Inflationary Spectral Runnings in the Presence of Systematic Errors

Cosmological inflation suggests that the scalar spectral index "runs" with scale. Constraints on the values of the spectral runnings, ${\alpha }_{s}\equiv {{dn}}_{s}/d\,\mathrm{ln}\,k$ and ${\beta }_{s}\equiv d{\alpha }_{s}/d\,\mathrm{ln}\,k$, therefore provide a fundamental test of the physics of inflation. In this work, we review the feasibility of measuring the runnings when information from upcoming large-volume galaxy surveys is used to supplement the information provided by a cosmic microwave background (CMB)-S4 experiment, particularly focusing on the effect of including high-k, nonlinear scales. Since these measurements will be sensitive to modeling uncertainties for the nonlinear power spectrum, we examine how three different ways of parameterizing those systematics—introducing zero, two, or several hundred nuisance parameters—affect constraints and protect against parameter biases. Considering statistical errors alone, we find that including strongly nonlinear scales can substantially tighten constraints. However, these constraints weaken to levels not much better than those from a CMB-S4 experiment alone when we limit our analysis to scales where estimates are not strongly affected by systematic biases. Given these considerations, near-future large-scale structure (LSS) surveys are unlikely to add much information to the CMB-S4 measurement of the first running α s . There is more potential for improvement for the second running, β s , for which LSS information will allow constraints to be improved by a factor of 3–4 relative to using the CMB alone. Though these limitations are still above the value predicted by slow-roll inflation, they do probe regions of parameter space relevant to nonstandard inflationary models with large runnings, for example, those that can generate an appreciable abundance of primordial black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regularized machine learning on molecular graph model explains systematic error in DFT enthalpies

Abstract A major goal of materials research is the discovery of novel and efficient heterogeneous catalysts for various chemical processes. In such studies, the candidate catalyst material is modeled using tens to thousands of chemical species and elementary reactions. Density Functional Theory (DFT) is widely used to calculate the thermochemistry of these species which might be surface species or gas-phase molecules. The use of an approximate exchange correlation functional in the DFT framework introduces an important source of error in such models. This is especially true in the calculation of gas phase molecules whose thermochemistry is calculated using the same planewave basis set as the rest of the surface mechanism. Unfortunately, the nature and magnitude of these errors is unknown for most practical molecules. Here, we investigate the error in the enthalpy of formation for 1676 gaseous species using two different DFT levels of theory and the ‘ground truth values’ obtained from the NIST database. We featurize molecules using graph theory. We use a regularized algorithm to discover a sparse model of the error and identify important molecular fragments that drive this error. The model is robust to rigorous statistical tests and is used to correct DFT thermochemistry, achieving more than an order of magnitude improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Persistence of systematic errors in the Asian-Australian monsoon precipitation basic states in climate models: a way forward

The annual cycle of the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system can be regarded as the seasonal displacement of the large-scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is anchored by the north-south migration of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. In the respective hemispheres, intense solar heating over land during spring and early summer provide the necessary thermodynamic conditions for the occurrence of deep convection off the equator. The rainfall and diabatic heating associated with the AAM is perhaps the most vigorous of all the regional monsoon components in the globe. Yet, skill in monsoon prediction (days to seasons) by dynamical models remains low, partly due to our lack of understanding of the entirety of the monsoon system and our inability to model the interactive processes that govern it. Simulating the monsoon precipitation climatology remains a grand challenge. The multi-model mean (MMM) errors for summertime precipitation relative to GPCP observations have shown little improvement in CMIP5 as compared to CMIP3. For the Asian Summer Monsoon, the MMM monsoon rainfall is weaker over South Asia, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific. For the Australian summer monsoon, it is excessive over most of the Maritime Continent, and deficient over northern Australia. Throughout the year, excessive rainfall is simulated over South China Sea – Maritime Continent regions, and CMIP5 models do not capture the annual cycle of the AAM. One implication is that uncertainties in future projections (e.g., IPCC 2013) of AAM mean rainfall may not have reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Solutions from an intermediate model show that diabatic heating (Q) associated with the AAM influences the global circulation. Compared to the reanalysis, many models tend to have maxima at the mid-troposphere but their simulated amplitude is overestimated in the lower troposphere (900-700 hPa) and underestimated from 600-300 hPa, a feature readily apparent in the MMM composite (dashed black line). The lower troposphere peak may be attributed to misrepresentations in shallow convection. Some outliers, such as CSIROMk3- 6-0 and ACCESS1-3, do not show any appreciable vertical structure, and the simulated monsoon over South Asia is virtually absent in these models. TRMM observations indicate that over the monsoon region the contribution from stratiform rainfall is about 40% to the Q intensity. In contrast, most of the CMIP3 models produce too much convective rainfall (95% of the total) and too little stratiform precipitation. Given the persistence of errors, we speculate that errors in the partitioning of total rainfall into convective-stratiform still persist in CMIP5, and may be one of the reasons for underestimation (overestimation) of Q in the layer 600-300 (900-700) hPa. In summary, the rather slow progress in modeling in the last decade or so led us to wonder: Has the scientific community reached a “plateau” in modeling mean monsoon precipitation?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A systematic error affecting NER calculations

Factors that may affect the precision of Neutron Emission Rate (NER) measurements made in the Canberra 4 neutron counter have been examined and quantified. Measurements of sample NER are corrected for the efficiency of the counter. The efficiency is calculated by measuring a source of known intensity, and taking the ratio of the measured neutrons per second (n/s) to the known output of the source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗