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Survey of Modeling and Simulation Techniques for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Volume I – Predicting Initial Microstructures

This report summarizes the current state of modeling and simulation methods for predicting the initial structure and properties of material in components assembled using advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs). The report is the first volume in a two-volume series. This first volume focuses on predicting initial microstructures of AM material. The second volume discusses predicting material properties given the initial microstructure. The focus is on technologies of particular relevance to the design and manufacture of nuclear reactor components. The purpose of the report is to help develop the technical knowledge base to support regulatory decisions that will be needed to assess nuclear components manufactured with AMTs as these components are installed at nuclear power plants (NPPs). The report develops a list of AMTs of particular interest to the NRC and summarizes the key microstructural features and corresponding processing parameters relevant to each technology. Further sections describe available physically-based and data-driven prediction methods and survey widely available software tools. The report concludes with a summary of gaps that may be of particular interest to the NRC when evaluating modeling and simulation methods for AMTs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Survey Data for Geomagnetic Field Modelling

The survey data discussed here are based on observations made relatively recently at points on land. A special subset of land survey data consists of those made at specially designated sites known as repeat stations. This class of data will be discussed in another part of this document (Barton, 1991b), so only the briefest of references will be made to repeat stations here. This discussion of 'ordinary' land survey data begins with a description of the spatial and temporal distributions of available survey data based on observations made since 1900. (The reason for this rather arbitrary choice of cut-off date is that this was the value used in the production of the computer file of magnetic survey data (land, sea, air, satellite, rocket) that is the primary source of data for geomagnetic main-field modeling). This is followed by a description of the various types of error to which these survey data are, or may be, subject and a discussion of the likely effects of such errors on field models produced from the data. Finally, there is a short section on the availability of geomagnetic survey data, which also describes how the data files are maintained.

Barraclough, D. R.↗

Comparison of greenhouse gas emission estimates from six hydropower reservoirs using modeling versus field surveys

As with most aquatic ecosystems, reservoirs play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle and emit greenhouse gases (GHG) as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). However, GHG emissions from reservoirs are poorly quantified, especially in temperate systems, resulting in high uncertainty. We compared reservoir C emission estimates and uncertainty of diffusive, ebullitive, and degassing pathways in six hydropower reservoirs in the southeastern United States among four data sources: two field-based surveys and two models (including the GHG Reservoir “G-res” Tool). We found that CH 4 diffusion was most similar across data sources (modeled minus observed, bias = - 21 g CO 2-eq m -2 y -1 ) and had low relative uncertainty (coefficient of variation, CV = 0.98). On the other hand, CO 2 diffusion was least consistent across data sources (bias = - 518 g CO 2-eq m -2 y -1 ). Both field surveys indicated strong negative CO 2 diffusion (i.e., CO 2 uptake) at all reservoirs, while G-res estimated positive CO 2 diffusion. By extension, total C emissions showed similar discrepancies, leading to high uncertainty in upscaling and interpreting reservoir source-sink dynamics. Finally, CH 4 ebullition had the highest relative uncertainty (CV = 2.77) due to high variability across sites. We discuss limitations of field surveys and these models, including temperature-based annualization methods, varying definitions of ebullition zones, low sampling resolution, and lack of dynamism. Future field efforts focused on capturing variability in CO 2 diffusion and CH 4 ebullition will be especially valuable in reducing uncertainty and improving models to advance our understanding reservoir GHG emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forestry applications project/timber resource. Sam Houston National forest inventory and development of a survey planning model

The Forestry Applications Project has been directed towards solving the problem of meeting informational needs of the resource managers utilizing remote sensing data sources including satellite data, conventional aerial photography, and direct measurement on the ground in such combinations as needed to best achieve these goals. It is recognized that sampling plays an important role in generating relevant information for managing large geographic populations. The central problem, therefore, is to define the kind and amount of sampling and the place of remote sensing data sources in that sampling system to do the best possible job of meeting the manager's informational needs.

Colwell, R. N.↗

Modal survey of the space shuttle solid rocket motor using multiple input methods

The ability to accurately characterize propellant in a finite element model is a concern of engineers tasked with studying the dynamic response of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor (SRM). THe uncertainties arising from propellant characterization through specimem testing led to the decision to perform a model survey and model correlation of a single segment of the Shuttle SRM. Multiple input methods were used to excite and define case/propellant modes of both an inert segment and, later, a live propellant segment. These tests were successful at defining highly damped, flexible modes, several pairs of which occured with frequency spacing of less than two percent.

Brillhart, Ralph↗

Correlation Results for a Mass Loaded Vehicle Panel Test Article Finite Element Models and Modal Survey Tests

High-fidelity Finite Element Models (FEMs) were developed to support a recent test program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The FEMs correspond to test articles used for a series of acoustic tests. Modal survey tests were used to validate the FEMs for five acoustic tests (a bare panel and four different mass-loaded panel configurations). An additional modal survey test was performed on the empty test fixture (orthogrid panel mounting fixture, between the reverb and anechoic chambers). Modal survey tests were used to test-validate the dynamic characteristics of FEMs used for acoustic test excitation. Modal survey testing and subsequent model correlation has validated the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the FEMs. The modal survey test results provide a basis for the analysis models used for acoustic loading response test and analysis comparisons

Maasha, Rumaasha↗

Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focussed on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced airfoil aerodynamics is examined.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focused on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for the increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced aerodynamics is examined.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

The use of geomagnetic field models in magnetic surveys

The importance of global geomagnetic field models for the reduction of magnetic surveys is discussed. It is demonstrated that a numerical model with adequate secular variation correction, provides a suitable representation of the regional field. The limitations of the presently available models are reported, with emphasis on the International Geomagnetic Reference Field.

Regan, R. D.↗

Perturbation theory for modeling galaxy bias: validation with simulations of the Dark Energy Survey

We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

OGLE-2014-BLG-0962 and a Comparison of Galactic Model Priors to Microlensing Data

OGLE-2014-BLG-0962 (OB140962) is a stellar binary microlensing event that was well covered by observations from the Spitzer satellite as well as ground-based surveys. Modeling yields a unique physical solution: a mid-M+M-dwarf binary with M(prim) = 0.20 ± 0.01 M(☉) and M(sec) = 0.16 ± 0.01 M(☉), with projected separation of 2.0 ± 0.3 au. The lens is only D(LS) = 0.41 ± 0.06 kpc in front of the source, making OB140962 a bulge lens and the most distant Spitzer binary lens to date. In contrast, because the Einstein radius (θ(E) = 0.143 ± 0.007 mas) is unusually small, a standard Bayesian analysis, conducted in the absence of parallax information, would predict a brown dwarf binary. We compare the results of Bayesian analysis using two commonly used Galactic model priors to the measured values for a set of Spitzer lenses. We find all models tested predict lens properties consistent with the Spitzer data. Furthermore, we illustrate the methodology for probing the Galactic distribution of planets by comparing the cumulative distance distribution of the Spitzer two-body lenses to that of the Spitzer single lenses.

Yutong Shan↗

Modeling nuclear energy’s future role in decarbonized energy systems

Increased attention has been focused on the potential role of nuclear energy in future electricity markets and energy systems as stakeholders target rapid and deep decarbonization and reductions in fossil fuel use. This paper examines models of electric sector planning and broader energy systems optimization to understand the prospective roles of nuclear energy and other technologies. In this perspective, we survey modeling challenges in this environment, illustrate opportunities to propagate best practices, and highlight insights from the deep decarbonization literature on the range of visions for nuclear energy's role. Nuclear energy deployment is highest with combinations of stringent emissions policies, nuclear cost reductions, and constraints on the deployment of other technologies, which underscores model dimensions related to these areas. New modeling capabilities are needed to adequately address emerging issues, including representing characteristics and applications of nuclear energy in systems models, and to ensure the relevance of models for policy and planning as deeper decarbonization is explored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗

The intrinsic luminosity and initial period of pulsars

The observed properties of pulsars are modeled on the assumption that they evolve by emitting magnetic dipole radiation and have exponentially decaying magnetic fields. The models are constructed by using Monte Carlo techniques to generate a Galactic sample of pulsars having particular distributions of initial periods, magnetic dipole moments, and positions. By choosing a relationship between the radio luminosity L(r), the period (P), and the P derivative, it is determined which pulsars of the generated sample could be detected by one of the major pulsar surveys. Detailed account is taken of known selection effects in these surveys. Models in which the size of the pulsar emission cone is dependent on the period are considered. The properties of the detectable pulsars are compared with the properties of the observed pulsars, and the initial distributions and luminosity relation of the model are adjusted until a satisfactory agreement is obtained. A crucial point is that the observed relation between L(r) and P, P derivative is affected by selection effects and does not apply to the actual pulsar population. It is found that the best fits are obtained with models in which the pulsars are injected with relatively long periods, about 0.5 sec.

Emmering, Robert T.↗

Introduction and survey on continuum models for repetitive lattice structures

A brief introduction and survey to aid and familiarize researchers interested in the use of continuum modeling procedures applied towards large space structure technology are presented. The use of such structural models for the distributed control of large flexible lattice structures offers a significant advantage over a numerical approach.

Weisstein, L. S.↗

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗