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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Primordial black holes from first-order phase transition in the singlet-extended SM

Supercooled first-order phase transition (FOPT) can lead to the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs). This scenario imposes stringent requirements on the profile of the effective potential. In this work, we use the singlet extended Standard Model (xSM) as a benchmark model to investigate this possibility at the electroweak scale. The PBHs formed during a supercooled FOPT have a narrow mass distribution around the mass of Earth. This distribution is closely tied to the temperature at which the PBHs form, corresponding to the FOPT at the electroweak scale. This scenario can be probed with microlensing experiments, space-based gravitational wave detectors, and collider experiments. Remarkably, the future space-based gravitational wave detector LISA will hold the potential to either confirm this scenario that leads to PBH formation across the observable Universe in the xSM or completely rule it out. Interestingly, our findings suggest that PBHs within the xSM framework may align with observations of the six ultrashort timescale events reported by the OGLE microlensing experiment. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Gonçalves, Dorival (ORCID:0000000342234238)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystal nucleation rates in one-component Yukawa systems

Nucleation in the supercooled Yukawa system is relevant for addressing current challenges in understanding a range of crystallizing systems including white dwarf (WD) stars. We use both brute force and seeded molecular dynamics simulations to study homogeneous nucleation of crystals from supercooled Yukawa liquids. With our improved approach to seeded simulations, we obtain quantitative predictions of the crystal nucleation rate and cluster size distributions as a function of temperature and screening length. These quantitative results show trends towards fast nucleation with short-ranged potentials. They also indicate that for temperatures T > 0.9⁢T m , where T m is the melt temperature, classical homogeneous nucleation is too slow to initiate crystallization but transient clusters of ~100 particles should be common. As a result, we apply these general results to a typical WD model and obtain a delay of ~0.6 Gyr in the onset of crystallization that may be observable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glaciation of liquid clouds, snowfall, and reduced cloud cover at industrial aerosol hot spots

The ability of anthropogenic aerosols to freeze supercooled cloud droplets remains debated. Here, in this work, we present observational evidence for the glaciation of supercooled liquid-water clouds at industrial aerosol hot spots at temperatures between -10° and -24°C. Compared with the nearby liquid-water clouds, shortwave reflectance was reduced by 14% and longwave radiance was increased by 4% in the glaciation-affected regions. There was an 8% reduction in cloud cover and an 18% reduction in cloud optical thickness. Additionally, daily glaciation-induced snowfall accumulations reached 15 millimeters. Glaciation events downwind of industrial aerosol hot spots indicate that anthropogenic aerosols likely serve as ice-nucleating particles. However, rare glaciation events downwind of nuclear power plants indicate that factors other than aerosol emissions may also play a role in the observed glaciation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Energy Density Physics of Inertial Confinement Fusion Ablator Materials

The historic December 5, 2022 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) reached fusion energy ignition for the first time. This is the most important scientific breakthrough of the 21st century paves the way to future clean inertial fusion energy (IFE). The diamond (high density carbon (HDC)) ablator material used in this experiment displays detrimental effects due to the development of hydrodynamic instabilities at the diamond/fuel interface under shock compression. New alternatives to diamond ablators are required to step up the energy yield in ICF experiments. The unique combination of mechanical strength (approaching that of diamond), the ability to accommodate high-Z dopants (in contrast to diamond), and the tunability of the properties (through synthesis material with varying sp 3 content) make amorphous carbon (a-C) a promising material for next-generation IFE ablative capsules. However, despite its critical importance to the IFE program, the behavior of a-C carbon at extreme temperatures and pressures remains largely unexplored. The primary goals of this project were to perform groundbreaking dynamic compression experiments and predictive simulations to uncover the fundamental high-energy-density physics of amorphous carbon. Our goals were (1) to uncover the metastability range of amorphous carbon and probe phase transitions to diamond or metastable supercooled liquid carbon; (2) to acquire high-quality equation of state (EOS) data and develop an experimentally validated EOS from machine-learning MD simulations of the complex states of carbon; and (3) to uncover the complex behavior of carbon liquid in both thermodynamically stable and metastable supercooled states by accessing large areas of carbon phase diagram with amorphous samples with variable sp 3 content. Our proposed experimental program included measurements of equation of state and diffraction measurements using the Omega EP laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics at the University of Rochester. The theoretical/simulation program involved the development of machine-learning models of the complex response of amorphous carbon under dynamic compression by performing molecular dynamics simulations at experimental time and length scales using leadership class DOE supercomputers. Simulations guided experiments to observe predicted phenomena and acquire critical experimental data in specific pressure-temperature domains to validate theoretical models. This research delivered fundamental properties of novel amorphous carbon IFE ablator material, including phase diagram and EOS. These results will aid in IFE target design and implosion experiments. A unique combination of predictive simulations and dynamic and static experiments provided a highly inspirational intellectual environment for graduate students and postdocs involved in this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamics of Liquid Uranium from Atomistic and Ab Initio Modeling

We present thermodynamic properties for liquid uranium obtained from classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and the first-principles theory. The coexisting phases method incorporated within MD modeling defines the melting temperature of uranium in good agreement with the experiment. The calculated melting enthalpy is in agreement with the experimental range. Classical MD simulations show that ionic contribution to the total specific heat of uranium does not depend on temperature. The density of states at the Fermi level, which is a crucial parameter in the determination of the electronic contribution to the total specific heat of liquid uranium, is calculated by ab initio all electron density functional theory (DFT) formalism applied to the atomic configurations generated by classical MD. The calculated specific heat of liquid uranium is compared with the previously calculated specific heat of solid γ-uranium at high temperatures. The liquid uranium cannot be supercooled below T sc ≈ 800 K or approximately about 645 K below the calculated melting point, although, the self-diffusion coefficient approaches zero at T D ≈ 700 K. Uranium metal can be supercooled about 1.5 times more than it can be overheated. The features of the temperature hysteresis are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Undercooling minimization in ultrasound coupled DTA measurements of molten salts

Molten salts are ionic liquids that are used for the electrolytic pyroprocessing of metals and as heat transfer fluids in very high temperature processes. Recently, halide-based molten salt reactors (MSR) have gained momentum for high density and environmentally responsible electricity generation. The function of these reactors and their fuel cycle depend on a knowledge of the halide salt’s thermodynamic properties [1]. Therefore, high accuracy phase equilibria of MSR relevant base halide and actinide containing salts are needed. Modern thermal analysis of the phase transitions of halide salts is usually done during heating at relatively high scan rates with commercial devices. Normally such measurements are adequate for pure or pseudo-binary salts. However, as the number of components in the mixture increases, accurately resolving the liquidus becomes increasingly difficult. Reversing the scanning mode greatly increases the sensitivity of phase transition measurements but can decrease accuracy due to undercooling [2] — a common occurrence in molten halide systems [3]. This work presents the development of a differential thermal analysis (DTA) cell intended for use in radiological gloveboxes. Non-contact ultrasonic agitation of the halide salt is implemented to limit kinetic limitations on crystallization during cooling to minimize undercooling [4]. Measurements on halide salts are also presented to elucidate the effect of non-contact mixing on undercooling. Reference [1] S. Boyd and C. Taylor, “3 - Chemical fundamentals and applications of molten salts,” in Molten Salt Reactors and Thorium Energy, T. J. Dolan, Ed., Woodhead Publishing, 2017, pp. 29–91. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-101126-3.00003-8. [2] K. Nitsch, A. Cihlár, and M. Rodová, “Molten state and supercooling of lead halides,” J. Cryst. Growth, vol. 264, no. 1, pp. 492–498, Mar. 2004, doi: 10.1016/j.jcrysgro.2004.01.011. [3] L. Rycerz, “Practical remarks concerning phase diagrams determination on the basis of differential scanning calorimetry measurements,” J. Therm. Anal. Calorim., vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 231–238, Jul. 2013, doi: 10.1007/s10973-013-3097-0. [4] Md. H. Zahir, S. A. Mohamed, R. Saidur, and F. A. Al-Sulaiman, “Supercooling of phase-change materials and the techniques used to mitigate the phenomenon,” Appl. Energy, vol. 240, pp. 793–817, Apr. 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.02.045.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stabilizing a low temperature phase change material based on Glaubers salt

The aim of this research is to enhance the performance of Glauber's salt (sodium sulfate decahydrate, SSD) as a phase change material (PCM) for thermal energy storage applications, as well as for shipping of temperature-sensitive materials. The study investigates the effects of modifying SSD with potassium chloride (KCl) and ammonium chloride (NH 4 Cl) to achieve lower phase transition temperatures of between +6 °C and + 13 °C. Sodium polyacrylate (PAAS) is employed as a thickening agent to prevent phase separation, and borax is used as a nucleating agent to suppress supercooling. Various ratios of KCl:NH 4 Cl are tested, and the impact of PAAS concentration on phase segregation is explored. The results show that a 2 wt% concentration of PAAS effectively prevents phase separation. Samples with a KCl:NH 4 Cl ratio of 1:1.83 exhibit stable phase transition behavior and maintain latent heat values within the range of 130–140 J/g after 30 thermal cycles. Maintaining a total KCl and NH 4 Cl proportion of 10 wt% is crucial to achieve the desired lower melting temperature. As a result, the study highlights the significance of thermal cycling in improving the stability of the PCM. The optimized SSD-based eutectic PCM formulations hold promise for applications in the cold chain industry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the density, viscosity, and surface tension of molten titanates using electrostatic levitation in microgravity

Rare earth and barium titanates are useful as ferroelectric, dielectric, and optical materials. Measurements of their thermophysical properties in the liquid state can help guide melt processing technologies for their manufacture and advance understanding of fragile liquids' behavior and glass formation. Here, we report the density, thermal expansion, viscosity, and surface tension of molten BaTi 2 O 5 , BaTi 4 O 9 , and 83TiO 2 -17RE 2 O 3 (RE = La or Nd). Measurements were made using electrostatic levitation and droplet oscillation techniques in microgravity, which provide access to quiescent liquid droplets and deep supercooling of 510–815 K below the equilibrium melting points. Densities were measured over 900–2400 K. Viscosities were similar for all four compositions, increasing from ~10 mPa s near 2100 K to ~30 mPa s near 1750 K. Surface tensions were 450–490 dyn cm -1 for the rare earth titanates and 383–395 dyn cm -1 for the barium titanates; surface tensions of all compositions had small or negligible temperature dependence over 1700–2200 K. In conclusion, for solids recovered after melt quenching, x-ray microtomography revealed the fracture mechanics in crystalline products and minimal internal porosity in glass products, likely arising from entrapped gas bubbles. Internal microstructures were generally similar for products processed either in microgravity or in a terrestrial aerodynamic levitator.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density of molten oxides measured in an aero-acoustic levitator

Knowing the thermophysical properties of high-temperature melts can aid the design of melt processes and validate atomic structural models, such as those used in studying glass formation. Property measurements on such melts are challenging, however, due to container-related contamination and heterogeneous nucleation. Containerless processing techniques that employ levitation can be used to avoid these obstacles. In that context, we demonstrate here the application of silhouette imaging to measure the density of molten oxides in an aero-acoustic levitation instrument (AAL). The AAL combines gas jet levitation with actively controlled acoustic positioning to enable full optical access to samples ca. 2–4 mm in diameter, which are laser beam heated and melted. The cross sections of molten drops are imaged using a monochromatic light source and narrowband-filtered camera. Melt volume is calculated from the cross sections and used to find density at several temperatures ranging 1530–1920 K, including up to 350 K of supercooling. We report densities for CaAl 2 O 4 , Ca 12 Al 14 O 33 , CaSiO 3 , their Fe 2 O 3 -bearing analogs, and 83TiO 2 -17RE 2 O 3 (RE = La or Nd). These provide important benchmarks of the capabilities, measurement uncertainties, and future outlook for this technique.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Zero-Strain Metal-Insulator Transition by the Local Fluctuation of Cation Dimerization

The coupled electronic and structural transitions in metal-insulator transition (MIT) hinder ultrafast switching and ultimate endurance. Decoupling these transitions and achieving a zero-strain electronic MIT can overcome the fundamental limitations of MIT in solid materials. Here, this study demonstrates that iso-valent Ti dopants in supercooled VO 2 epitaxial films cause MIT with minimal hysteresis without changing unit-cell volume and crystal symmetry. The Ti dopants in the VO 2 lattice locally alter the configuration of V-V pairs, where the long-range ordering in V-V pairs is disrupted, and the nano-domains of V-V dimers are formed. Strikingly, these local V-V dimers persist even above the electronic transition temperature (T MI ), facilitating the zero-strain electronic MIT with nanoscale structural heterogeneity. The geometrically compatible interface between insulating and metallic phases drastically enhances switching speed and endurance during electrically and optically driven zero-strain MIT. In conclusion, this discovery offers a fresh perspective on the scientific understanding of MIT and the improved functionality in terms of device speed and reliability by decoupling electronic and structural transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transport of penetrants in polymeric materials

Transport phenomena of chemical species in polymers underpin many applications. This mini-review discusses several key transport scenarios in polymer gels, melts and crosslinked polymer networks. Transport mechanisms of a wide variety of penetrant and polymer chemistries are discussed via activated hopping theory and cover across the rubbery, intermediate/deeply supercooled and glassy states of polymers. Moreover, we also discuss the ionic conductivity in polymer electrolytes, emphasizing the relationship between ion diffusion and the segmental relaxation of polymers and highlighting current challenges in the community. Finally, potential research directions are suggested concerning how external fields, such as mechanical force fields, active matter and self-propelling particles, affect the particle transport in polymers. This mini-review offers a general overview of motivations for studying penetrant transports in polymers and diverse mechanisms involved.

activated hopping↗
DOE OSTI2024

A-B Transition in Superfluid $^3$He and Cosmological Phase Transitions

First-order phase transitions in the very early universe are a prediction of many extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics and could provide the departure from equilibrium needed for a dynamical explanation of the baryon asymmetry of the Universe. They could also produce gravitational waves of a frequency observable by future space-based detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. All calculations of the gravitational wave power spectrum rely on a relativistic version of the classical nucleation theory of Cahn-Hilliard and Langer, due to Coleman and Linde. The high purity and precise control of pressure and temperature achievable in the laboratory made the first-order A to B transition of superfluid $^3$He ideal for test of classical nucleation theory. As Leggett and others have noted, the theory fails dramatically. The lifetime of the metastable A phase is measurable, typically of order minutes to hours, far faster than classical nucleation theory predicts. If the nucleation of B phase from the supercooled A phase is due to a new, rapid intrinsic mechanism that would have implications for first-order cosmological phase transitions as well as predictions for gravitational wave production in the early universe. Here we discuss studies of the A-B phase transition dynamics in $^3$He, both experimental and theoretical, and show how the computational technology for cosmological phase transition can be used to simulate the dynamics of the A-B transition, support the experimental investigations of the A-B transition in the QUEST-DMC collaboration with the goal of identifying and quantifying the mechanism(s) responsible for nucleation of stable phases in ultra-pure metastable quantum phases.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fragile-to-strong transition in liquid As 2 S 3 under pressure: The effect of melt metallization

The well-known classification of glass-forming melts into fragile and strong liquids has several notable exceptions, including water, silica, and certain phase-change materials (PCMs). These exceptional fluid systems exhibit a fragile-to-strong transition (FST) upon cooling: a transformation from a high-temperature liquid with fast atomic dynamics, low viscosity, and low flow activation energy, to a viscous supercooled melt with high energy barriers near the glass transition temperature T g . This behavior is critically important for non-volatile memories, photonic tensor cores, reconfigurable metamaterials, and other devices, that use PCMs, enabling nanosecond-scale crystallization in the fragile regime and long data retention in the strong regime near or below T g . A significant structural transformation is expected between these two viscosity regimes, along with a semiconductor-metal (SC-M) transition upon heating, driven by high internal pressure and associated density increase. By applying high external pressure to the canonical low-conducting chalcogenide melt As 2 S 3 , we observed both the FST and the SC-M transition, occurring simultaneously within the same domain of the P, T−phase space. These findings suggest that the FST is not limited to a few exceptional liquids but is a common phenomenon, at least in systems that exhibit melt metallization within specific regions of their P, T−phase diagrams.

first-principles molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Medium-Range Structural Order as the Driver of Activated Dynamics and Complexity Reduction in Glass-Forming Liquids

Here, we analyze in depth the Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation theory of activated dynamics in metastable liquids to establish that the predicted inter-relationships between the alpha relaxation time, local cage and collective elastic barriers, dynamic localization length, and shear modulus are causally related within the theory to the medium range order (MRO) static correlation length. The latter grows exponentially with density for metastable hard sphere fluids and as a nonuniversal inverse power law with temperature for supercooled liquids under isobaric conditions. The physical origin of predicted connections between the alpha time and other metrics of cage order and the thermodynamic inverse dimensionless compressibility is fully established. It is discovered that although kinetic constraints from the real space first coordination shell are important for the alpha time, they are of secondary importance compared to the consequences of the more universal MRO correlations in both the modestly and deeply metastable regimes. This understanding sheds new light on the theoretical basis for, and prior successes of, the predictive mapping of chemically complex thermal liquids to effective hard sphere fluids based on matching their dimensionless compressibilities, a scheme we call “complexity reduction”. In essence, the latter is equivalent to the physical requirement that the thermal liquid MRO correlation equals that of its effective hard sphere analog. The mapping alone is shown to provide a remarkable level of quantitative predictive power for the glass transition temperature T g of 21 molecular and polymer liquids. Predictions for the chemically specific absolute magnitude and growth with cooling of the MRO correlation length are obtained and lie in the window of 2–6 nm at T g . Dynamic heterogeneity, elastic facilitation, and beyond pair structure issues are briefly discussed. Future opportunities to theoretically analyze the equilibrated deep glass regime are outlined.

cancer↗