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Observational Constraint on A Feedback From Supercooled Clouds Reduces Projected Warming Uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.

Climate and Earth system modelling

Experimental Study of Supercooled Large Droplet Impingement Effects

Typically, ice accretion results from small supercooled droplets (droplets cooled below freezing), usually 5 to 50 microns in diameter, which can freeze upon impact with an aircraft surface. Recently, ice accretions resulting from supercooled large droplet (SLD) conditions have become a safety concern. Current ice accretion codes have been extensively tested for Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 25, Appendix C icing conditions but have not been validated for SLD icing conditions. This report presents experimental methods for investigating large droplet impingement dynamics and for obtaining small and large water droplet impingement data.

ICE ACCRETION CODE

Profiling Supercooled Liquid Water Clouds with Multi-Frequency Radar

An optimal estimation scheme is employed to demonstrate the utility of using multi-band radar observations for estimating supercooled liquid profiles. Qualitative comparisons with microphysical probe images show that the retrievals are capable of producing supercooled liquid consistent with in situ data. Finally, a path forward for quantifying performance and extending the study to a more robust measurement suite is given.

supercooled liquid

Better Constraining Supercooled Clouds Could Reduce Projected Warming Spread

The increase of climate sensitivity to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models (ESMs) compared to CMIP5 ESMs is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud response to climate change, referred to as cloud feedback. The ratio of supercooled liquid cloud water relative to all cloud water, termed liquid phase ratio (LPR), which has also notably increased in many recent ESMs, is thought to be a primary driver of the extratropical cloud feedback increase. Unlike the preponderance of previous studies that compare native model LPR directly with observations, here we evaluate LPR over three ESM generations against Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) using an instrument simulator approach, which mimics instrument limitations and uses consistent cloud definitions and resolutions. We find that current coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) ESMs collectively simulate greater LPR than previous CMIP generations and overestimate LPR compared to observations, contrary to previous findings, likely driven by past inconsistent comparisons of ESM outputs with CALIPSO observations. We further show that greater LPR in ESM present-day climate is unexpectedly correlated with a smaller extratropical cloud feedback, attributable to a decrease of cloud amount exceeding the increase of cloud optical depth. Finally, our results suggest that improving constraints on model LPR using our evaluation framework would likely reduce the spread in CMIP6 climate sensitivities, owing to its effect on extratropical cloud feedback from supercooled clouds.

greenhouse gas concentrations

Supercooling on the lunar surface - A review of analogue information

Terrestrial analog studies of the phase petrology of supercooled melts and rapid crystal growth are reviewed for possible light shed on lunar crystallization, supercooling, and petrogenic processes, in particular rapid consolidation of lavas extruded on the lunar surface, and impact liquids. Crystallization of major constituent minerals (olivine, pyroxene, plagioclase) in dendritic or skeletal forms is found much more characteristic of lunar igneous rocks than of terrestrial counterparts. Olivine and pyroxene occur often as skeletal phenocrysts, and their stage of crystallization is crucial to the genesis and cooling history of porphyritic lavas. Widespread occurrence of glass and of immature radiate crystallization, particularly of highly zoned pyroxenes and zoned plagioclase, is noted.

Donaldson, C. H.

X-Ray Diffraction Study of the Internal Structure of Supercooled Water

A Bragg X-ray spectrometer equipped with a volume-sensitive Geiger counter and Soller slits and employing filtered molybdenum Ka radiation was used to obtain a set of diffracted intensity curves as a Punction of angle for supercooled water. Diffracted intensity curves in the temperature region of 21 to -16 C were obtained. The minimum between the two main diffraction peaks deepened continuously with lowering temperature, indicating a gradual change in the internal structure of the water. No discontinuity in this trend was noted at the melting point. The internal structure of supercooled water was concluded to become progressively more ice-like as the temperature is lowered.

Dorsch, Robert G.

Effects of supercooling in the initial solidification of PbTe-SnTe solid solutions

Deviations from compositions anticipated by the thermal equilibrium phase diagram have been observed in Bridgman-grown crystals of Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Te, in the first to freeze region of the boule. A set of experiments were conducted to determine the extent of thermal supercooling of Pb(1-x)Sn(x)Te in a Bridgman-like configuration. The results of the compositional profiles and the supercooling measurements are consistent with a diffusionless transformation occurring at the onset of solidification, and the length of uncontrolled growth is inversely related to the temperature gradient of the furnace.

Fripp, A. L.

ETO lidar studies of cirrostratus altocumulogenitus: Another role for supercooled liquid water in cirrus cloud formation

Cirrus clouds have traditionally been viewed as cold, wispy, or stratiform ice clouds, typically displaying optical phenomena such as haloes. A composition entirely of hexagonal ice crystals, of one habit or another could only have a transitory existence in cirrus, since the concentrations of ice nuclei (IN) measured by various techniques (at the surface or in the lower troposphere) indicate an enormous number of IN that should be active at cirrus cloud temperatures. In light of recent instrumental aircraft and polarization lidar studies of cirrus clouds, it is clear that highly supercooled cloud droplets can sometimes be a component of cirrus clouds. It remains to be determined if supercooled liquid water (SLW) is present abundantly enough in cirrus to play a significant role in earth's radiance balance, or is merely a curious, infrequent occurrence. To help evaluate this issue, the UH polarization lidar FIRE Extended Time Observation (ETO) of cirrus clouds are being utilized to compile, among other parameters, a climatological record of SLW clouds associated with and within cirrus.

Sassen, Kenneth

The vapor pressures of supercooled NHO3/H2O solutions

A procedure utilizing the Gibbs-Duhem relation is used to extrapolate vapor pressures of supercooled HNO3 mixtures to 190 K. Values of A and B from the equation logP = A - B/T are presented for solutions between 0.20 and 0.25 mole fraction HNO3. In the stratosphere, if sufficient HNO3 vapor is present because it has not come into equilibrium with the nitric acid trihydrate, supercooled nitric acid solutions could condense at temperatures up to 1.5 + or - 0.8 K above the ice point.

Hanson, David R.

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

Miller, Dean

Metastable Demixing of Supercooled Cu-Co and Cu-Fe Alloys in an Oxide Flux

A systematic study on the liquid separation in supercooled Cu-Co and Cu-Fe alloys was performed using a melt fluxing which permits high supercooling to be achieved. Moreover, this method renders it possible to directly measure binodal temperatures and establish metastable liquid miscibility gap (LMG). All phase-separated samples at compositions ranging from 10 to 80 wt pct Co or to 83 wt pct Fe were found to exhibit droplet-shaped morphologies, in spite of various droplet distributions. Uniformly dispersed microstructures were obtained as the minority component was less than 20 vol.%; while beyond this percentage, serious coarsening was brought about. Calculations of the miscibility gap in the Cu-Co system and Stokes movement velocity of Co and Fe droplets in Cu matrix were made to analyze the experimental results.

Li, D.

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

lake-effect

Laser Rayleigh Scattering for Flow Density and Condensation Measurements in the Supercooled Mach-14 Free-Stream at AEDC Wind Tunnel No. 9

Laser Rayleigh scattering was used to investigate clusters in the free-stream flow at Arnold Engineering Development Center’s Tunnel 9 (T9). The facility was run at Mach-14, with a pure-N2 flow medium, and at several total pressures and temperatures. Using an excimer laser operating at 248 nm, the Rayleigh instrument imaged scattering from the focused laser beam in the free-stream. As a wind-tunnel flow is accelerated, it cools and approaches the condensation boundary. As a precursor to condensation, small clusters of molecules are first formed, but the individual clusters are too small to be spatially resolved in typical images of the beam. Thus clusters effectively add a spatially smooth background signal to the pure diatomic-molecule Rayleigh signal. The main result of the present work is that clustering was not significant. After correcting for interference by small particles imbedded in the T9 flow, cluster scattering was unobservable or smaller than one standard deviation (1-sigma) of the uncertainties for almost all tunnel runs. The total light scattering level was measured to be 1.05 +/- 0.15 (1-sigma) of the expected diatomic scattering, when averaged over the entire usable data set. This result included flow conditions that were supercooled to temperatures of ~ 20 K, about 25 K below the condensation limit of ~ 45 K. Thus the Mach-14 nozzle flow is essentially cluster-free for many supercooled conditions that might be used to extend the facility operating range to larger Reynolds numbers.

Herring, Gregory C.

Analysis of Supercooled Large Drop Velocity Measurement in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel

An experiment was conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center to measure the velocity of supercooled large drops (SLD) in the test section of the tunnel. Previous experiments in the IRT suggested that supercooled large drops passing through the test section of the tunnel do not move at the same velocity as the surrounding air flow. The difference between drop velocity and tunnel air velocity is called slip velocity. The slip velocity is important for determining the exact nature of SLD icing simulation in the IRT. It can impact the ice growth process because of its effect on drop cooling rate during transit from the spray bars to the test section. It can also affect the amount of splashing that occurs upon impact. Slip velocity is an important flow parameter to determine how far the current facility capabilities can be extended into the SLD regime. Initial measurement data analysis of the drop velocities indicates that drops with diameter larger than about 100 to 200 µm experience velocity slip.

SLD

Measurement of Density, Sound Velocity, Surface Tension, and Viscosity of Freely Suspended Supercooled Liquids

Non-contact methods have been implemented in conjunction with levitation techniques to carry out the measurement of the macroscopic properties of liquids significantly cooled below their nominal melting point. Free suspension of the sample and remote methods allow the deep excursion into the metastable liquid state and the determination of its thermophysical properties. We used this approach to investigate common substances such as water, o-terphenyl, succinonitrile, as well as higher temperature melts such as molten indium, aluminum and other metals. Although these techniques have thus far involved ultrasonic, electromagnetic, and more recently electrostatic levitation, we restrict our attention to ultrasonic methods in this paper. The resulting magnitude of maximum thermal supercooling achieved have ranged between 10 and 15% of the absolute temperature of the melting point for the materials mentioned above. The physical properties measurement methods have been mostly novel approaches, and the typical accuracy achieved have not yet matched their standard equivalent techniques involving contained samples and invasive probing. They are currently being refined, however, as the levitation techniques become more widespread, and as we gain a better understanding of the physics of levitated liquid samples.

Supercooling Liquids

Polarized View of Supercooled Liquid Water Clouds

Supercooled liquid water (SLW) clouds, where liquid droplets exist at temperatures below 0 C present a well known aviation hazard through aircraft icing, in which SLW accretes on the airframe. SLW clouds are common over the Southern Ocean, and climate-induced changes in their occurrence is thought to constitute a strong cloud feedback on global climate. The two recent NASA field campaigns POlarimeter Definition EXperiment (PODEX, based in Palmdale, California, January-February 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, based in Houston, Texas in August- September 2013) provided a unique opportunity to observe SLW clouds from the high-altitude airborne platform of NASA's ER-2 aircraft. We present an analysis of measurements made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) during these experiments accompanied by correlative retrievals from other sensors. The RSP measures both polarized and total reflectance in 9 spectral channels with wavelengths ranging from 410 to 2250 nm. It is a scanning sensor taking samples at 0.8deg intervals within 60deg from nadir in both forward and backward directions. This unique angular resolution allows for characterization of liquid water droplet size using the rainbow structure observed in the polarized reflectances in the scattering angle range between 135deg and 165deg. Simple parametric fitting algorithms applied to the polarized reflectance provide retrievals of the droplet effective radius and variance assuming a prescribed size distribution shape (gamma distribution). In addition to this, we use a non-parametric method, Rainbow Fourier Transform (RFT),which allows retrieval of the droplet size distribution without assuming a size distribution shape. We present an overview of the RSP campaign datasets available from the NASA GISS website, as well as two detailed examples of the retrievals. In these case studies we focus on cloud fields with spatial features varying between glaciated and liquid phases at altitudes as high as 10 km, which correspond to temperatures close to the homogeneous freezing temperature of pure water drops (about -35 C or colder). The multimodal droplet size distributions retrieved from RSP data in these cases are consistent with the multi-layer cloud structure observed by correlative Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) measurements.

Clouds