Estimation of the mean of a discrete parameter, covariance stationary, stochastic process in rotation sampling
Constrained optimization procedure for deriving linear estimator of population mean in rotation sampling
Nishikawa, K.-Y.↗
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Estimation of the mean of a discrete parameter, covariance stationary, stochastic process in rotation sampling
Discrete parameter covariance stationary stochastic process in rotation sampling, deriving minimum variance unbiased linear population mean estimator by constrained optimization procedure
Nishikawa, K.↗
Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Heuristic Algorithm
The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, can also be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. This paper introduces a two stage heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runway crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program with a Branch & Bound algorithm implementation. Preliminary results from this implementation of the two-stage algorithm on real-world traffic data are presented.
Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗
Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Solution Methodology
The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. Thus, Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is a critical component of airport operations planning in general and surface operations planning in particular. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, may be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. Generating optimal runway operations plans was approached in with a 'one-stage' optimization routine that considered all the desired objectives and constraints, and the characteristics of each aircraft (weight class, destination, Air Traffic Control (ATC) constraints) at the same time. Since, however, at any given point in time, there is less uncertainty in the predicted demand for departure resources in terms of weight class than in terms of specific aircraft, the ROP problem can be parsed into two stages. In the context of the Departure Planner (OP) research project, this paper introduces Runway Operations Planning (ROP) as part of the wider Surface Operations Optimization (SOO) and describes a proposed 'two stage' heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. Focus is specifically given on including runway crossings in the planning process of runway operations. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runwy crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program. Preliminary results from the algorithm implementation on real-world traffic data are included.
Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗
On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum
This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.
Barahona, D.↗
Biophysics Representation of the Two-Hit Model of Alzheimer's Disease for the Exploration of Late CNS Risks from Space Radiation
A concern for long-term space travel outside the Earth s magnetic field is the late effects to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE). Human epidemiology data is severely limited for making CNS risk estimates and it is not clear such effects occur following low LET exposures. We are developing systems biology models based on biological information on specific diseases, and experimental data for proton and heavy ion radiation. A two-hit model of Alzheimer s disease (AD) has been proposed by Zhu et al.(1), which is the framework of our model. Of importance is that over 50% of the US population over the age of 75-y have mild to severe forms of AD. Therefore we recommend that risk assessment for a potential AD risk from space radiation should focus on the projection of an earlier age of onset of AD and the prevention of this possible acceleration through countermeasures. In the two-hit model, oxidative stress and aberrant cell cycle-related abnormalities leading to amyloid-beta plaques and neurofibrillary tangles are necessary and invariant steps in AD. We have formulated a stochastic cell kinetics model of the two-hit AD model. In our model a population of neuronal cells is allowed to undergo renewal through neurogenesis and is susceptible to oxidative stress or cell cycle abnormalities with age-specific accumulation of damage. Baseline rates are fitted to AD population data for specific ages, gender, and for persons with an apolipoprotein 4 allele. We then explore how low LET or heavy ions may increase either of the two-hits or neurogenesis either through persistent oxidative stress, direct mutation, or through changes to the micro-environment, and suggest possible ways to develop accurate quantitative estimates of these processes for predicting AD risks following long-term space travel.
Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
Spectral and Temporal Properties of Galactic Black Hole Systems
Kusunose, Mineshige & Yamada (1996; hereafter KMY) extended the model of Kusunose & Mineshige (1995) to the Galactic black hole candidates by considering nonthermal electron injection with gamma(EQ\0(,\s\up2(less than),\s\do-l(_))) 10. The effects of pair escape and advection on the disk structure and general relativistic effects on the emission spectrum were also examined. They found that the energy spectral index (alpha)(sub x) of the power law X-rays is about-0.8 and-2.0 when 1(sub soft)/1 = 0.2 and 2, respectively, where 1(sub soft)/1 is the ratio of the compactness of the injected soft photons to that of the gravitational energy. The power law index was found to be nearly independent of the mass accretion which is consistent with the observed luminosity independence. The model with small 1(sub soft)/1 (less than 1) shows promise for explaining the low state observed in Galactic black hole candidates. Model fits were provided for GX339-4 and Cyg X- 1 data from COMPTEL and OSSE on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. The difference in emission spectra between thermal disks and the model of KMY appears only in the energy range greater than 100 keV. Li, Kusunose and Liang (1996) studied stochastic particle acceleration to produce nonthermal particle distributions which then were used in the model of Kusunose & Mineshige (1995) to model the spectrum above 1 Mev from GBHC's. Under certain conditions, stochastic electron acceleration overcame Coulomb and Compton losses resulting in a suprathermal electron population. Good fits were obtained by COMPTEL and OSSE observations of Cyg X-1 and GRO J0422+23. Kusunose & Mineshige (1996a) examined the role of electron-positron pairs in advection-dominated disks. They found that the results for advection-dominated disks without pairs are not qualitatively changed by including pairs. Summaries of work sponsored by this grant are given in Wheeler, Kim, Moscoso, Kusunose & Mineshige (1996) and Kusunose (1996) Work was also done on developing a model for an e(+-) pair wind from the inner disk region of a black hole. The model consists of three zones: a pair production/annihilation zone at the base of the wind, a pair annihilation zone slightly further out from the disk and a wind zone extending to infinity where no annihilation occurs. The model assumes an input X-ray / gamma-ray power-law spectrum as a function of photon energy and angular distribution. Pairs are created in the pair production/annihilation zone via photon-photon, photonparticle and particle-particle collisions. The bulk velocity of the pairs is obtained from the momentum component perpendicular to the disk taking into account the radiation pressure acceleration of the pairs. Energy balance in the pair production/annihilation zone is calculated by assuming that the momentum component parallel to the disk is thermalized and by taking into account heating/cooling via anisotropic thermal Compton scattering along with the cooling processes of bremsstrahlung and synchrotron radiation. The pair density is also calculated. The outer boundary of the pair production/annihilation zone is where the optical depth for photon-photon pair produciton is unity. Beyond this point only pair annihilation will occur in the pair annihilation zone. When the pair density becomes small, pair annihilation will be negligible and the pairs will flow freely to infinity. In this model we have found that the X-ray power-law spectral index, alpha(sub x) is the primary parameter which determines the density, temperature and velocity of the pair production/annihilation zone (Moscoso, Kusunose & Wheeler 1996).
Wheeler, J. Craig↗
Spreadsheets in Team X: Preserving Order in an Inherently Chaotic Environment
JPL is NASA's prime center for deep space missions. In response to the need to reduce the cost and time to complete early concept studies and proposals JPL created the first concurrent engineering team in the aerospace industry: Team X. Started in 1995, Team X has carried out over 800 studies, dramatically reducing the time and cost involved, and has been the model for other concurrent engineering teams both within NASA and throughout the larger aerospace community. Since its inception, the software backbone of this highly successful design team - engaged in examining some of NASA's cutting edge concepts - has been the unassuming spreadsheet. Over the years the Team X spreadsheet-based tools have evolved from simple standalone engineering models into a networked spreadsheet intensive system with real time parameter updating. Recent new capabilities include stochastic cost estimation and a graphical drag and drop block diagram that automatically populates the related spreadsheet parameters of cost, mass and power. This paper describes how the spreadsheet functions within Team X: its history, architecture, current capabilities, enabling strengths and persistent weaknesses. In addition, the verification methods and institutional oversight that have evolved as the Team X products became increasingly critical to Laboratory success are also discussed.
concurrent engineering↗
Origin and evolution of the Saturn system
As was the case for Jupiter, Saturn formed either as a result of a gas instability within the solar nebula or the accretion of a solid core that induced an instability within the surrounding solar nebula. In either case, the proto-planet's history is divided into three major stages: early, quasi-hydrostatic evolution (stage 1); hydrodynamical collapse (stage 2); and late, quasi-hydrostatic contraction (stage 3). During stage 1, Saturn had a radius of several hundred times that of its present radius, R(s), while stage 3 began when Saturn had a radius of 3.5 R(s). Stages 1 and 2 lasted 10(6) to 10(7) years and 1 year, respectively, while stage 3 is continuing through the present epoch. During the early history of the Saturn system, giant impact events may have catastrophically disrupted most of the original satellites of Saturn. Such disruption, followed by reaccretion, may be responsible, in part for the occurrence of Trojans and co-orbital moons in the Saturn system, the apparent presence of a stochastic component in the trend of satellite density with radial distance, and the present population of ring particles.
Pollack, J. B.↗
Origin and Evolution of the Saturn System
As was the case for Jupiter, Saturn formed either as a result of a gas instability within the solar nebula or the accretion of a solid core that induced an instability within the surrounding solar nebula. In either case, the protoplanet's history can be divided into three major stages: early, quasi-hydrostatic evolution (stage 1); very rapid contraction (stage 2); and late, quasi-hydrostatic contraction (stage 3). During the early history of the Saturn system, giant impact events may have catastrophically disrupted most of the original satellites of Saturn. Such disruption, followed by reaccretion, may be responsible, in part, for the occurrence of Trojans and coorbital moons in the Saturn system, the apparent presence of a stochastic component in the trend of satellite density with radial distance, and the present population of ring particles. Saturn's excess luminosity and viscous dissipation are also discussed in relation to the satellite formation.
Pollack, J. B.↗
Origin and evolution of the Saturn system
As was the case for Jupiter, Saturn formed either as a result of a gas instability within the solar nebula or the accretion of a solid core that induced an instability within the surrounding solar nebula. In either case, the proto-planet's history is divided into three major stages: early, quasi-hydrostatic evolution (stage 1); hydrodynamical collapse (stage 2); and late, quasi-hydrostatic contraction (stage 3). During stage 1, Saturn had a radius of several hundred times that of its present radius, R(s), while stage 3 began when Saturn had a radius of 3.5 R(s). Stages 1 and 2 lasted one-million to 10-million years and one year, respectively, while stage 3 is continuing through the present epoch. During the early history of the Saturn system, giant impact events may have catastrophically disrupted most of the original satellites of Saturn. Such disruption, followed by reaccretion, may be responsible, in part for the occurrence of Trojans and co-orbital moons in the Saturn system, the apparent presence of a stochastic component in the trend of satellite density with radial distance, and the present population of ring particles.
Pollack, J. B.↗
Modeling of asteroidal dust production rates
The production rate of dust associated with the prominent Hirayama asteroid families and the background asteroidal population are modeled with the intent of using the families as a calibrator of mainbelt dust production. However, the dust production rates of asteroid families may be highly stochastic; there is probably more than an order of magnitude variation in the total area of dust associated with a family. Over 4.5 x 10(exp 9) years of collisional evolution, the volume (mass) of a family is ground down by an order of magnitude, suggesting a similar loss from the entire mainbelt population. Our collisional models show that the number of meteoroids deliverable to Earth also varies stochastically, but only by a factor of 2 to 3.
Durda, Daniel D.↗
Energization of ionospheric ions by electrostatic hydrogen cyclotron waves
Interactions between ionospheric ions and electrostatic hydrogen cyclotron waves are studied numerically in an investigation of a possible mechanism for the energization of the low-energy ionospheric ions flowing along geomagnetic field lines to high altitudes. Ion equations of motion are solved numerically for a given number of O(+), He(+) and He(2+) ions initially in a Maxwellian distribution. All the ions considered are found capable of undergoing stochastic acceleration by a coherent electrostatic hydrogen cyclotron wave with parameters typical of the auroral plasma above 1 earth radius. The fraction of the initial ion population undergoing heating depends strongly on the mass, charge and initial temperature of the ion species, with O(+) ions only heated when their initial temperature is approximately greater than the hydrogen temperature and the lighter ions able to be heated even when cold, due to cyclotron resonant stochastic heating.
Singh, N.↗
A Comprehensive Assessment of Biologicals Contained Within Commercial Airliner Cabin Air
Both culture-based and culture-independent, biomarker-targeted microbial enumeration and identification technologies were employed to estimate total microbial and viral burden and diversity within the cabin air of commercial airliners. Samples from each of twenty flights spanning three commercial carriers were collected via air-impingement. When the total viable microbial population was estimated by assaying relative concentrations of the universal energy carrier ATP, values ranged from below detection limits (BDL) to 4.1 x 106 cells/cubic m of air. The total viable microbial population was extremely low in both of Airline A (approximately 10% samples) and C (approximately 18% samples) compared to the samples collected aboard flights on Airline A and B (approximately 70% samples). When samples were collected as a function of time over the course of flights, a gradual accumulation of microbes was observed from the time of passenger boarding through mid-flight, followed by a sharp decline in microbial abundance and viability from the initiation of descent through landing. It is concluded in this study that only 10% of the viable microbes of the cabin air were cultivable and suggested a need to employ state-of-the art molecular assay that measures both cultivable and viable-but-non-cultivable microbes. Among the cultivable bacteria, colonies of Acinetobacter sp. were by far the most profuse in Phase I, and Gram-positive bacteria of the genera Staphylococcus and Bacillus were the most abundant during Phase II. The isolation of the human pathogens Acinetobacter johnsonii, A. calcoaceticus, Janibacter melonis, Microbacterium trichotecenolyticum, Massilia timonae, Staphylococcus saprophyticus, Corynebacterium lipophiloflavum is concerning, as these bacteria can cause meningitis, septicemia, and a handful of sometimes fatal diseases and infections. Molecular microbial community analyses exhibited presence of the alpha-, beta-, gamma-, and delta- proteobacteria, as well as Gram-positive bacteria, Fusobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Deinococci, Bacterioidetes, Spirochetes, and Planctomyces in varying abundance. Neisseria meningitidis rDNA sequences were retrieved in great abundance from Airline A followed by Streptococcus oralis/mitis sequences. Pseudomonas synxantha sequences dominated Airline B clone libraries, followed by those of N. meningitidis and S. oralis/mitis. In Phase II, Airline C, sequences representative of more than 113 species, enveloping 12 classes of bacteria, were retrieved. Proteobacterial sequences were retrieved in greatest frequency (58% of all clone sequences), followed in short order by those stemming from Gram-positives bacteria (31% of all clone sequences). As for overall phylogenetic breadth, Gram-positive and alpha-proteobacteria seem to have a higher affinity for international flights, whereas beta-and gamma-proteobacteria are far more common about domestic cabin air parcels in Airline C samples. Ultimately, the majority of microbial species circulating throughout the cabin airs of commercial airliners are commensal, infrequently pathogenic normal flora of the human nasopharynx and respiratory system. Many of these microbes likely originate from the oral and nasal cavities, and lungs of passengers and flight crew and are disseminated unknowingly via routine conversation, coughing, sneezing, and stochastic passing of fomites. The data documented in this study will be useful to generate a baseline microbial population database and can be utilized to develop biosensor instrumentation for monitoring microbial quality of cabin or urban air.
microbial diversity↗
Stochastic stability and instability of model ecosystems
In this work, we initiate a stability study of multispecies communities in stochastic environment by using Ito's differential equations as community models. By applying the direct method of Liapunov, we obtain sufficient conditions for stability and instability in the mean of the equilibrium populations. The conditions are expressed in terms of the dominant diagonal property of community matrices, which is a suitable mechanism for resolving the central problem of 'complexity vs stability' in model ecosystems. As a by-product of this analysis we exhibit important structural properties of the stochastic density-dependent models, and establish tolerance of community stability to a broad class of nonlinear time-varying perturbations.
Ladde, G. S.↗
Computation Molecular Kinetics Model of HZE Induced Cell Cycle Arrest
Cell culture models play an important role in understanding the biological effectiveness of space radiation. High energy and charge (HZE) ions produce prolonged cell cycle arrests at the G1/S and G2/M transition points in the cell cycle. A detailed description of these phenomena is needed to integrate knowledge of the expression of DNA damage in surviving cells, including the determination of relative effectiveness factors between different types of radiation that produce differential types of DNA damage and arrest durations. We have developed a hierarchical kinetics model that tracks the distribution of cells in various cell phase compartments (early G1, late G1, S, G2, and M), however with transition rates that are controlled by rate-limiting steps in the kinetics of cyclin-cdk's interactions with their families of transcription factors and inhibitor molecules. The coupling of damaged DNA molecules to the downstream cyclin-cdk inhibitors is achieved through a description of the DNA-PK and ATM signaling pathways. For HZE irradiations we describe preliminary results, which introduce simulation of the stochastic nature of the number of direct particle traversals per cell in the modulation of cyclin-cdk and cell cycle population kinetics. Comparison of the model to data for fibroblast cells irradiated photons or HZE ions are described.
Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
Acousto-ultrasonics
The theoretical development, methodology, and potential applications of acousto-ultrasonic nondestructive testing are set forth in an overview to assess the effectiveness of the technique. Stochastic wave propagation is utilized to isolate and describe defects in fiber-reinforced composites, particularly emphasizing the integrated effects of diffuse populations of subcritical flaws. The generation and nature of acousto-ultrasonic signals are described in detail, and stress-wave factor analysis of the signals is discussed. Applications of acousto-ultrasonics are listed including the prediction of failure sites, assessing fatique and impact damage, calculating ultimate tensile strength, and determining interlaminar bond strength. The method can identify subtle but important variations in fiber-reinforced composites, and development of the related instrumentation technology is emphasized.
Vary, Alex↗
Transverse eV Ion Heating by Random Electric Field Fluctuations in the Plasmasphere
Charged particle acceleration in the Earth inner magnetosphere is believed to be mainly due to the local resonant wave-particle interaction or particle transport processes. However, the Van Allen Probes have recently provided interesting evidence of a relatively slow transverse heating of eV ions at distances about 2-3 Earth radii during quiet times. Waves that are able to resonantly interact with such very cold ions are generally rare in this region of space, called the plasmasphere. Thus, non-resonant wave-particle interactions are expected to play an important role in the observed ion heating. We demonstrate that stochastic heating by random transverse electric field fluctuations of whistler (and possibly electromagnetic ion cyclotron) waves could explain this weak and slow transverse heating of H+ and O+ ions in the inner magnetosphere. The essential element of the proposed model of ion heating is the presence of trains of random whistler (hiss) wave packets, with significant amplitude modulations produced by strong wave damping, rapid wave growth, or a superposition of wave packets of different frequencies, phases, and amplitudes. Such characteristics correspond to measured characteristics of hiss waves in this region. Using test particle simulations with typical wave and plasma parameters, we demonstrate that the corresponding stochastic transverse ion heating reaches 0.07-0.2 eV/h for protons and 0.007-0.015 eV/h for O+ ions. This global temperature increase of the Maxwellian ion population from an initial Ti approx. 0.3 eV could potentially explain the observations.
Artemyev, A. V.↗