Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamically consistent incorporation of the Langmuir adsorption model into compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics

For a gas–solid interfacial system where chemical species undergo reversible adsorption, we develop a mesoscopic stochastic modeling method that simulates both gas-phase hydrodynamics and surface coverage dynamics by coupling the Langmuir adsorption model with compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics. To this end, we derive a thermodynamically consistent mass–energy update scheme that accounts for how the mass and energy variables in the gas and surface subsystems should be updated according to the changes in the number of molecules of each species in each subsystem due to adsorption and desorption events. By performing a stochastic analysis for the ideal Langmuir model and the full hydrodynamic system, we analytically confirm that our mass–energy update scheme captures thermodynamic equilibrium predicted by equilibrium statistical mechanics. We find that an internal energy correction term is needed, which is attributed to the difference in the mean kinetic energy of gas molecules colliding with the surface from that computed from the Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution. By performing an equilibrium simulation study for an ideal gas mixture of CO and Ar, with CO undergoing reversible adsorption, we validate our overall simulation method and implementation.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermodynamic and kinetic properties of layered-CaCo2O4 for the Ca-ion batteries: a systematic first-principles study

One of the more promising directions in multivalent energy storage is systems based on Ca ion intercalation due to the potential for high voltage and capacity. A major challenge for enabling such a battery is to find cathode materials capable of fast ionic diffusion and reversible insertion of Ca ions. Here, on the basis of first-principles calculations, we have demonstrated that layered CaCo 2 O 4 exhibits favorable thermodynamic and kinetic properties that should enable topotactic Ca ion intercalation reactions. The P3-type layered Ca x Co 2 O 4 (0 < x < 1) with either of space groups of P 1 or P 2 1 / m are stable at multiple Ca concentrations and show a smooth voltage plateau higher than 3 V up to X = 0.5. The energy barriers of the single Ca ion migration are as low as 0.36 eV and 0.27 eV at the dilute and high vacancy concentration limits, respectively. Therefore, although varying the vacancy environments of the diffusing atom influences the migration barriers, they do not exceed 0.6 eV. Stochastic analysis of Ca hopping events performed by ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation has shown that the migration barriers are lower than 0.32 eV. Therefore, the Ca diffusivity at room temperature extrapolated from the AIMD results is comparable to Li diffusivity (>10 -10 cm 2 s -1 ) in conventional Li cathode materials, suggesting the feasibility of layered Ca x Co 2 O 4 as multivalent cathode materials. Finally, the structural factors that enable fast diffusion are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and Universal Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory Algorithm for Warm Dense Matter to Hot Dense Plasma

Understanding many processes, e.g., fusion experiments, planetary interiors, and dwarf stars, depends strongly on microscopic physics modeling of warm dense matter and hot dense plasma. This complex state of matter consists of a transient mixture of degenerate and nearly free electrons, molecules, and ions. This regime challenges both experiment and analytical modeling, necessitating predictive ab initio atomistic computation, typically based on quantum mechanical Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT). However, cubic computational scaling with temperature and system size prohibits the use of DFT through much of the warm dense matter regime. A recently developed stochastic approach to KS-DFT can be used at high temperatures, with the exact same accuracy as the deterministic approach, but the stochastic error can converge slowly and it remains expensive for intermediate temperatures (< 50 eV). Here we have developed a universal mixed stochastic-deterministic algorithm for DFT at any temperature. This approach leverages the physics of KS-DFT to seamlessly integrate the best aspects of these different approaches. We demonstrate that this method significantly accelerated self-consistent field calculations for temperatures from 3 to 50 eV, while producing stable molecular dynamics and accurate diffusion coefficients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model

Geologic carbon storage is one of the promising strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing the emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a systems-level stochastic analysis tool called the open source integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to estimate and manage the risk of containment loss at a geological carbon sequestration site. NRAP-Open-IAM contains several wellbore leakage model components that estimate the fluid leak rate that may occur through compromised legacy wells due to the increase in pressure resulting from CO 2 injection activities. Coupled to a reservoir component model, these components estimate the leakage of CO 2 and/or brine from a storage reservoir to overlying aquifer layers and the atmosphere through legacy wells. This report presents the theoretical framework and quality testing of the multisegmented wellbore reduced-order model. The model allows for segmenting of the legacy wells passing through the overlying stratigraphy into several intervals to simulate a site’s specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. For quality assurance, the analytical model is validated against numerical reservoir flow simulations for single and multiple aquifer(s) models. The results indicate that the model accurately predicts the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well over time. A detailed description of the model helps users to understand the model and provides a basis for future improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetics of particles with short-range interactions

Self-assembly is one of the grand challenges of the 21st century – as the devices and materials we would like to build become too complex or small-scale for top-down manufacturing to be efficient, it is increasingly important to find ways to create these through bottom-up, dynamical approaches. Many particles used in self-assembly have very short-ranged attractive interactions, making simulations expensive or impossible. This proposal develops a set of conceptual and computational tools to study the dynamics of self-assembly for particles with short-ranged interactions, harnessing ideas in differential and computational geometry, and stochastic analysis, to accelerate simulations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model

NRAP Open IAM is the latest evolution in a series of quantitative models developed under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to address risk assessment, risk management and containment assurance questions of geological carbon storage (GCS). NRAP Open IAM allows a user to define a site specific GCS scenario, characterize important site features, events, and processes (considering uncertainty), couple together reduced order models of various system components to rapidly forecast response to CO 2 injection, and perform stochastic analysis to quantify containment effectiveness, leakage risk, and impact to receptors of concern.

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗
DOE OSTI2022

A backward SDE method for uncertainty quantification in deep learning

Here, we develop a backward stochastic differential equation based probabilistic machine learning method, which formulates a class of stochastic neural networks as a stochastic optimal control problem. An efficient stochastic gradient descent algorithm is introduced with the gradient computed through a backward stochastic differential equation. Convergence analysis for stochastic gradient descent optimization and numerical experiments for applications of stochastic neural networks are carried out to validate our methodology in both theory and performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗