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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

X-ray light curves of active galactic nuclei are phase incoherent

We compute the Fourier phase spectra for the light curves of five low-luminosity active galactic nuclei observed by EXOSAT. There is no statistically significant phase coherence in any of them. This statement is equivalent, subject to a technical caveat, to a demonstration that their fluctuation statistics are Gaussian. Models in which the X-ray output is controlled wholly by a unitary process undergoing a nonlinear limit cycle are therefore ruled out, while models with either a large number of randomly excited independent oscillation modes or nonlinearly interacting spatially dependent oscillations are favored. We also demonstrate how the degree of phase coherence in light curve fluctuations influences the application of causality bounds on internal length scales.

Krolik, Julian↗
NASA NTRS1977

Effect of the Shuttle contaminant environment on a sensitive infrared telescope

A sensitive IR telescope on the Space Shuttle Orbiter will be limited in its performance by fluctuations in the IR radiation from the natural environment and the contaminant atmosphere. Models of the Orbiter's contaminant atmosphere were used to predict its spectral radiance from 3 to 300 microns. At 350 km, statistical fluctuations in the radiation from a water vapor column, and a noise equivalent power were measured. This noise is somewhat smaller than the expected contribution from zodiacal light from 5 to 30 microns. The column density of all IR emitting molecules can be kept low only if restrictions on rocket firings and liquid vents are maintained. The relatively low frequency of particle sightings from Skylab, coupled with improvements in Orbiter venting techniques, indicate that sightings of particles 2 microns and larger in radius will not seriously hamper telescope performance provided that liquid vents and rocket firings are properly restricted.

Simpson, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Search for carbon 14 in tektites.

An attempt was made to detect cosmic-ray produced C-14 in australites and far-east tektites. No C-14 activity was found outside of statistical fluctuations. If a terrestrial age of 10 thousand years is assumed for australites, a maximum cosmic-ray exposure time of one thousand years is obtained for these tektites on the basis of a 2-sigma statistical error.

Boeckl, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

Shopbell, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Minimum length Pb/SCIN detector for efficient cosmic ray identification

A study was made of the performance of a minimal length cosmic ray shower detector that would be light enough for space flight and would provide efficient identification of positions and protons. Cosmic ray positions are mainly produced in the decay chain of: Pion yields Muon yields Positron and they provide a measure of the matter density traversed by primary protons. Present positron flux measurements are consistent with the Leaky Box and Halo models for sources of cosmic rays. Abundant protons in the space environment are a significant source of background that would wash out the positron signal. Protons and positrons produced very distictive showers of particles when they enter matter; many studies have been published on their behavior on large calorimeter detectors. The challenge is to determine the minimal material necessary (minimal calorimeter depth) for positive particles identification. The primary instrument for the investigation is the Monte Carlo code GEANT, a library of programs from CERN that can be used to model experimental geometry, detector responses and particle interaction processes. The use of the Monte Carlo approach is crucial since statistical fluctuations in shower shape are significant. Studies conducted during the 1988 summer program showed that straightforward approaches to the problem achieved 85 to 90 percent correct identification, but left a residue of 10 to 15 percent misidentified particles. This percentage improved to a few percent when multiple shower-cut criteria were applied to the data. This summer, the same study was extended to employ several physical and statistical methods of identifying response of the calorimeter and the efficiency of the optimal shower cuts to off-normal incidence particle was determined.

Snyder, H. David↗
NASA NTRS1994

FRESIP: A Discovery Mission Concept To Find Earth-Sized Planets Around Solar Like Stars

The current nebular theory postulates that planets are. a consequence of the formation of stars from viscous accretion disks. Condensation from the accretion disk favors the formation of small rocky planets in the hot inner region, and the formation of gas giants in the cool outer region. Consequently, terrestrial-type planet in inner orbits should be commonplace. From geometrical considerations , Borucki and Summers have shown that 1% of planetary systems resembling our solar system should show transits for Earth-sized (or larger) planets. Thus a photometric satellite that uses a wide field of view telescope and a large detector array to simultaneously monitor 5000 target stars should detect 50 planetary systems. To differentiate regularly recurring transits from statistical fluctuations of the stellar flux, one must observe over several orbital periods so that the false positive rate can be reduced to one event or less. A one-meter aperture telescope placed in a halo orbit about either the L1 or L2 Lagrange points and viewing perpendicular to both the orbital and ecliptic planes can view continuously for the required period because neither the Sun, Earth, or Moon would enter the field of view. Model calculations show that the observations should provide statistically significant estimates of the distributions of planetary size, orbital radius, coplanarity, and the frequency of planetary systems that have Earth-sized planets in inner orbits. Because approximately one half of the star systems observed will be binary systems, the frequency of planetary systems orbiting either one or both of the stars can also be determined.

Borucki, William↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gravitational clustering in the expanding universe - Controlled high-resolution studies in two dimensions

Results are presented from a series of gravitational clustering simulations in two dimensions. These simulations are a significant departure from previous work, since in two dimensions one can have large dynamic range in both length scale and mass using present computer technology. Controlled experiments were conducted by varying the slope of power-law initial density fluctuation spectra and varying cutoffs at large k, while holding constant the phases of individual Fourier components and the scale of nonlinearity. Filaments are found in many different simulations, even with pure power-law initial conditions. By direct comparison, filaments, called 'second-generation pancakes' are shown to arise as a consequence of mild nonlinearity on scales much larger than the correlation length and are not relics of an initial lattice or due to sparse sampling of the Fourier components. Bumps of low amplitude in the two-point correlation are found to be generic but usually only statistical fluctuations. Power spectra are much easier to relate to initial conditions, and seem to follow a simple triangular shape (on log-log plot) in the nonlinear regime. The rms density fluctuation with Gaussian smoothing is the most stable indicator of nonlinearity.

Beacom, John Francis↗
NASA NTRS1994

Types of Information Expected from a Photometric Search for Extra-Solar Planets

The current theory postulates that planets are a consequence of the formation of stars from viscous accretion disks. Condensation from the hotter, inner portion of the accretion disk favors the formation of small rocky planets in the inner portion and the formation of gas giants in the cuter, cooler part. Consequently, terrestrial-type planets in inner orbits must be commonplace (Wetheril 1991). From the geometry of the situation (Borucki and Summers 1984), it can be shown that 1% of those planetary systems that resemble our solar system should show transits for Earth-sized (or larger) planets. Thus a photometric satellite that uses a wide field of view telescope and a large CCD array to simultaneously monitor 5000 target stars should detect 50 planetary systems. To verify that regularly recurring transits are occurring rather than statistical fluctuations of the stellar flux, demands observations that extend over several orbital periods so that the constancy of the orbital period, signal amplitude, and duration can be measured. Therefore, to examine the region from Mercury's orbit to that of the Earth requires a duration of three years whereas a search out to the orbit of mars requires about six years. The results of the observations should provide estimates of the distributions of planetary size and orbital radius, and the frequency of planetary systems that have Earth-sized planets in inner orbits. Because approximately one half of the star systems observed will be binary systems, the frequency of planetary systems orbit ' ing either one or both of the stars can also be determined. Furthermore, the complexity of the photometric signature of a planet transiting a pair of stars provides enough information to estimate the eccentricities of the planetary orbits. In summary, the statistical evidence from a photometric search of solar-like stars should be able to either confirm or deny the applicability of the current theory of planet formation and provide new information about the stability of planetary orbits in binary star systems.

Borucki, William↗
NASA NTRS1986

A direct time series comparison between the La Jolla and Belfast radiocarbon records

For many years it has been widely assumed that the variations in the level of atmospheric carbon-14 were due to statistical fluctuations arising from experimental error. This is understandable since the signal/noise ratio is very low and the time sequences representing the variations are strongly stochastic. Interlaboratory comparisons show that baseline variations in the absolute value of the carbon-14 concentration do exist. However, assuming linearity, the delta 14C values are independent of these. The importance of assessing the quantitive reality of the delta 14C values is based upon their expression of the interplanetary cosmic ray source function, because in the range of 100 to 1000 year periods, there appears to be no evidence that the Earth's magnetic field is the source modulating function. Therefore the modulation is either due to changes in the solar atmosphere propagated out into the solar wind, or extra-heliospheric pressure effects, but these appear to be unlikely for the periods noted here. The recent availability of the new high quality Belfast time sequence of delta 14C now permits a simple mutual assessment of the several sequences which are available. Since the La Jolla record has been a standard for many years , these two were chosen for a simple comparison. Although differences exist, the close agreement between these two sequences, one carried out on White mountain Bristlecone pines, and the other done using Irish peat bog wood, is striking. This correlation between the two strongly reinforces the statistical view that the delta 14C record is that of real interplanetary modulation of the cosmic ray source leading to the generation of atmospheric 14C.

Sonett, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1977

A comparison of estimated and directly measured turbulent heat fluxes in the lower stratosphere

The contribution of small-scale motions to the vertical heat flux in the lower stratosphere is determined from wind and temperature fluctuation statistics obtained during the High Altitude Clear Air Turbulence investigation. Analysis of the cospectra suggests a horizontal wavelength of 3 km as the appropriate long-wave cutoff of small-scale motion. With this scale restriction, the measured vertical heat fluxes are in good agreement with the values of heat flux estimated by Lilly et al. (1974) from the kinetic energy dissipation rate. Hence, the hypothesis of Lilly et al. for estimating heat flux from the dissipation rate is considered to be reliable. It follows that, in the lower stratosphere, subsynoptic vertical transport is small compared to large-scale transport.

Heck, W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Ocean wave heights measured by a high resolution pulse-limited radar altimeter

Data on significant wave height (SWH) taken with an airborne (2-3.5 km altitude) X-band 1-ns pulse-limited radar altimeter under various wind and sea conditions are interpreted. A heuristic discussion of the return pulse shape and the method of extracting the SWH is followed by a demonstration that the mean of the resulting SWH values is in agreement with other, independent measurements. The scatter of the SWH values is large compared to the estimates based on the statistical fluctuations in the radar signal. The discrepancy is resolved by showing that the radar is actually observing small-scale variations in the sea-surface standard deviation caused by the small number of ocean wavelengths illuminated.

Walsh, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

An experiment to verify that the weak interactions satisfy the strong equivalence principle

The construction of a clock based on the beta decay process is proposed to test for any violations by the weak interaction of the strong equivalence principle bu determining whether the weak interaction coupling constant beta is spatially constant or whether it is a function of gravitational potential (U). The clock can be constructed by simply counting the beta disintegrations of some suitable source. The total number of counts are to be taken a measure of elapsed time. The accuracy of the clock is limited by the statistical fluctuations in the number of counts, N, which is equal to the square root of N. Increasing N gives a corresponding increase in accuracy. A source based on the electron capture process can be used so as to avoid low energy electron discrimination problems. Solid state and gaseous detectors are being considered. While the accuracy of this type of beta decay clock is much less than clocks based on the electromagnetic interaction, there is a corresponding lack of knowledge of the behavior of beta as a function of gravitational potential. No predictions from nonmetric theories as to variations in beta are available as yet, but they may occur at the U/sg C level.

Eby, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Interplanetary discontinuities - Temporal variations and the radial gradient from 1 to 8.5 AU

A dependence of the rate of occurrence and properties of interplanetary discontinuities on radial distance were investigated using Pioneer 10 and 11 vector helium magnetometer observations. Spatial and temporal variations were separated and discontinuities identified, noting that their rate of occurrence undergoes large variations well outside the deviations expected from statistical fluctuations. Temporal changes in the occurrence rate averaged over Bartels solar rotations were well correlated at Pioneer 10 and 11, separated by a distance of 2 AU, and time variations consisted of slow modulation of the occurrence rate due to changing solar conditions. The correlation over widely separated distances is interpreted by a model in which the discontinuities originate inside 1 AU and are convected outward by the solar wind. Evidence of spatial dependence was provided by a decrease in the rates of occurrence at both spacecraft with increasing radial distance, and it was shown that the Pioneer 11 rate, nearer the sun, exceeded the Pioneer 10 rate at greater distances.

Tsurutani, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Pulse compression inside an actively AM mode-locked Nd:YAG laser using a liquid Kerr cell

A mode-locked Nd:YAG laser capable of generating pulses substantially shorter than the present limit of 30-50 ps, while retaining the stability of active mode locking, would be a useful development. This study presents a simplified theoretical analysis and a preliminary experimental verification of the use of an optical Kerr cell as a passive lossless pulse compressor inside a Q-switched and actively mode-locked YAG laser. The theoretical model indicates possible compression to as short as about 5 ps in a typical low-power Nd:YAG laser. The preliminary experimental results show substantial pulse compression via the predicted mechanism, though still not below about 30 ps. The technique appears capable, however, of pulse compression to substantially shorter values without the instabilities, statistical fluctuations, or energy losses associated with saturable-absorber mode locking.

Duerinckx, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Limit on galactic 6.13 MeV gamma-ray line

The University of New Hampshire large gamma-ray detector observed the galactic center region during a balloon flight from Alice Springs, Australia on 1977 November 21-22. The absence of any observable line at 6.13 MeV or its escape-peak energy makes it possible to place an upper limit of 8.1 x 10 to the -4th photons/(sq cm s) at the 99% confidence level on the 0-16 de-excitation line at this energy from the galactic disk in the direction of the center. This limit restricts the interpretation given by Willett et al. (1979) of the line at 6.13 MeV which they observed while viewing the galactic anticenter. The present results indicate that it is highly unlikely that the line which these authors report is due to dark nebulae or the quiet sun. Possible explanations for their observation are atmospheric background, local production in the detector, a localized cosmic source in the direction of the galactic anticenter, or a statistical fluctuation.

Dunphy, P. P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Low-background performance of a monolithic InSb CCD array

A 20 element monolithic InSb charge coupled device (CCD) detector array was measured under low background conditions to assess its potential for orbital astronomical applications. At a temperature of 64 K, previous results for charge transfer efficiency (CTE) were reproduced, and a sensitivity of about 2 x 10 to the minus 15th power joules was measured. At 27 and 6 K, extended integration times were achieved, but CTE was substantially degraded. The noise was approximately 6000 charges, which was in excess of the level where statistical fluctuations from the illumination could be detected. A telescope demonstration was performed showing that the array sensitivity and difficulty of operation were not substantially different from laboratory levels. Ways in which the device could be improved for astronomical applications were discussed.

Bregman, J. D.↗