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Recent Hayabusa 2 spectral measurements are compared with state-of-the-art shock-layer radiation simulations resulting from the LAURA/HARA code suite. These simulations include coupled ablation, which accounts for the injection of ablation products into the flowfield, and coupled radiation, which accounts for radiative energy loss in the flowfield. To enable the cou- pled ablation simulations, a best-estimate model is developed for Hayabusa’s carbon-phenolic ablator based on available published information. The comparison between the simulations and measurements focuses on three atomic nitrogen lines, two atomic oxygen lines, one atomic hydrogen line, and the CN Violet band system. Parametric uncertainties are evaluated for these features using a recently developed capability in LAURA/HARA. These uncertainties capture the impact of flowfield and radiation modeling uncertainties on the observed radiation simulations, and include the impact of coupled radiation and ablation product emission. The resulting parametric uncertainties range from 50 to over 100% for the atomic lines, and 80% for CN Violet. Uncertainties in flowfield kinetics and non-Boltzmann modeling provide the dominant contribution to these uncertainties. For the atomic nitrogen and oxygen lines, com- parisons between the nominal simulations and measurements show agreement well within these simulation uncertainty bounds, with the measurements within 20% of the nominal simulation over most of the trajectory, and within 10% at peak emission. This excellent agreement is un- precedented for observed radiation measurements of atomic lines, where previous Stardust and Hayabusa 1 comparisons were significantly worse. The improved agreement for these Hayabusa 2 comparisons is both the result of improved measurement quality and enhanced flowfield and radiation modeling. For the ablation product emission from the 656 nm atomic hydrogen line, the agreement between measurements and simulations is within ±20% for all trajectory points except one outlier. This good comparison is surprising considering this species depends on the ablation rate and is shown to have strong wake contribution, which both contribute to the large ≈±70% parametric uncertainty. For the ablation product emission from CN Violet, the simulations over-predict the measurements by over a factor of two early in the trajectory, with the comparison improving later in the trajectory. This disagreement for CN Violet is consistent with the ≈±80% parametric uncertainty bounds evaluated for the simulations. To utilize the excellent agreement between the atomic line simulations and measurements in the assessment of the radiative heating margin for a future flight vehicle, the flowfield property binning (FPB) approach is applied. Using the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) as an example, the combination of the excellent Hayabusa comparisons and the FPB analysis justify nearly a 10% reduction in the radiative heating margin from an assumed baseline margin of 30%. This direct quantitative link between observed radiation measurements and the radia- tive heating margin of future flight vehicles demonstrates the value of these observed radiation measurements.
Shock-Layer Radiative Heating↗