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Description of historical and future projection simulations by the global coupled E3SMv1.0 model as used in CMIP6

Abstract. This paper documents the experimental setup and general features of the coupled historical and future climate simulations with the first version of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1.0). The future projected climate characteristics of E3SMv1.0 at the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) designed in the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) and the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) only forcing experiment are analyzed with a focus on regional responses of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land. Due to its high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS of 5.3 K), E3SMv1.0 is one of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the largest surface warming by the end of the 21st century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario. The global mean precipitation change is highly correlated with the global temperature change, while the spatial pattern of the change in runoff is consistent with the precipitation changes. The oceanic mixed layer generally shoals throughout the global ocean. The annual mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is overly weak with a slower change from ∼ 11 to ∼ 6 Sv (Sverdrup) relative to other CMIP6 models. The sea ice, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases rapidly with large seasonal variability. We detect a significant polar amplification in E3SMv1.0 from the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Comparing the SSP5-8.5 all-forcing experiment with the GHG-only experiment, we find that the unmasking of the aerosol effects due to the decline of the aerosol loading in the future projection period causes transient accelerated warming in the all-forcing experiment in the first half of the 21st century. While the oceanic climate response is mainly controlled by the GHG forcing, the land runoff response is impacted primarily by forcings other than GHG over certain regions, e.g., southern North America, southern Africa, central Africa, and eastern Asia. However, the importance of the GHG forcing on the land runoff changes grows in the future climate projection period compared to the historical period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of doping and thickness on domain avalanches in lead zirconate titanate thin films

In undoped lead zirconate titanate films of 1–2 μm thick, domain walls move in clusters with a correlation length of approximately 0.5–2 μm. Band excitation piezoresponse force microscopy mapping of the piezoelectric nonlinearity revealed that niobium (Nb) doping increases the average concentration or mobility of domain walls without changing the cluster area of correlated domain wall motion. In comparison, manganese (Mn) doping reduces the contribution of mobile domain walls to the dielectric and piezoelectric responses without changing the cluster area for correlated motion. In both Nb and Mn doped films, the cluster area increases and the cluster density drops as the film thickness increases from 250 to 1250 nm. This is evident in spatial maps generated from the analysis of irreversible to reversible ratios of the Rayleigh coefficients.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Imaging Strain-Localized Single-Photon Emitters in Layered GaSe below the Diffraction Limit

Nanoscale strain control of exciton funneling is an increasingly critical tool for the scalable production of single photon emitters (SPEs) in two-dimensional materials. However, conventional far-field optical microscopies remain constrained in spatial resolution by the diffraction limit and thus can provide only a limited description of nanoscale strain localization of SPEs. Here, we quantify the effects of nanoscale heterogeneous strain on the energy and brightness of GaSe SPEs on nanopillars with correlative cathodoluminescence, photoluminescence, and atomic force microscopy, supported by density functional theory simulations. We report the strain-localized SPEs have a broad range of emission wavelengths from 620 to 900 nm. We reveal substantial strain-controlled SPE wavelength tunability over a ~100 nm spectral range and 2 orders of magnitude enhancement in the SPE brightness at the pillar center due to Type-I exciton funneling. In addition, we show that radiative biexciton cascade processes contribute to observed CL photon superbunching. Also, the GaSe SPEs show excellent stability, where their properties remain unchanged after electron beam exposure. Importantly, we anticipate that this comprehensive study on the nanoscale strain control of two-dimensional SPEs will provide key insights to guide the development of truly deterministic quantum photonics.

2D materials↗

Evaluating the Impact of Redox Potential on the Corrosion of Q125, 316L, and C276 Steel in Low-Temperature Geothermal Systems

Time series experiments were used to explore the fluid redox impact on the corrosion of Q125, 316L, and C276 steels in low-ionic-strength and neutral water at temperature and pressure conditions associated with low-temperature geothermal systems. After exposing polished samples of each steel grade to an oxidizing (H2O2) and a reducing (Zn-doped) fluid for intervals of 24 h, 1 week, and 6 weeks, the atomic force microscopy results revealed general corrosion for Q125, while 316L and C276 exhibited pitting, crevice expansion, and edge attack corrosion. Secondary depositional features are frequently found as topographic highs, adjacent to pitting corrosion. These features may be identified as there is a very strong spatial correlation between the height retrace and phase retrace surface maps. All steels became progressively rougher over time after exposure to both fluids, while the corrosion rates were more complex. Samples exposed to the reducing fluid experienced an increase in the corrosion rate over time, while C276 and 316L experienced a decrease in the corrosion rate. Finally, a novel data validation technique was developed to address the intrinsic scalability of corrosion. The results indicate that the AFM scan area does not affect the measured surface roughness over nearly three orders of magnitude.

Bowman, Samuel (ORCID:000000021510174X)↗

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Switchable planar chirality and spin texture in highly ordered ferroelectric hybrid perovskite domains

Chiral organic-inorganic hybrid perovskites offer a promising platform for developing non-linear chiro-optical applications and chiral-induced spin selectivity. Here, we show that achiral hybrid perovskites that have highly ordered ferroelectric domains with orthogonal polarization exhibit planar chirality, as manifested by second harmonic generation with strong circular dichroism. Interestingly, the handedness of the second harmonic generation circular dichroism response can be alternatingly switched between orthogonally polarized domains and domain walls. To correlate the origin of planar chirality in these domains, atom-resolved atomic force microscopy is used to reveal distinct arrangements of atomic rows in these ferroelectric crystals that indicate planar symmetry breaking. Remarkably, a large SHG anisotropy factor of 0.41 is measured at the domain wall. Additionally, spatially resolved two-photon photoluminescence excitation measurement provide evidence of larger Rashba spin-splitting in these chiral ferroelectric domains compared to domain-free areas. Our discoveries of domain-dependent planar chirality and spin texture hold great promise for advancement of domain-specific chiro-optical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging for evaluating microscale damage mechanisms and tracking cracking behaviors inside cross-ply GFRCs

In this study, we integrated the high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging (PCI) with a modified Kolsky compression bar loading platform to visualize the dynamic failure processes of cross-ply glass fiber reinforced composites (GFRCs). Four S-2 glass/SC-15 composite specimens were prepared, having similar thicknesses but different stacking sequences, namely as [0 12 /90 12 ], [90 12 /0 12 ], [0 8 /90 8 /0 8 ], and [90 8 /0 8 /90 8 ]. Three-dimensional synchrotron X-ray computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were employed to examine the microstructures and quantify the fiber volume fractions. Each specimen was notched and subjected to a dynamic three-point flexural loading. The onset of cracking close to the notch tip, crack propagation in 0° or 90° plies and their interface, crack opening, and ultimately failure of the specimen were captured by high-speed synchrotron X-ray PCI. Additional dynamic experiments were performed to determine the average time when the stress wave propagated through the specimen and correlate the X-ray images with the specimen's force-deflection response. Finally, the surface morphology of each specimen after the dynamic loading was imaged by SEM. Comparison between real-time X-ray images and post-fracture SEM images demonstrated the capability of the X-ray method to record damage evolution inside composites. Furthermore, the high spatial and temporal resolutions of the X-ray setup and edge enhancement by PCI enabled the identification of microscale damage features within 1 μs. Two damaging processes were identified, crack growth was quantified, and fracture toughness of the composites was evaluated. The method is deemed useful to reveal microscale damage mechanisms and track cracking behaviors inside cross-ply GFRCs under dynamic loading in real time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

Evidence for fluid–injection–induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection–induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (M L 5.2) and 1985 (M w 4.5) within ~6 km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel–1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5 cm/yr, indicating pressure–imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ~800 m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. Furthermore, the San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long–term, spatially persistent external forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying resolution in cosmological N- body simulations using self-similarity

ABSTRACT We demonstrate that testing for self-similarity in scale-free simulations provides an excellent tool to quantify the resolution at small scales of cosmological N-body simulations. Analysing two-point correlation functions measured in simulations using abacus , we show how observed deviations from self-similarity reveal the range of time and distance scales in which convergence is obtained. While the well-converged scales show accuracy below 1 per cent, our results show that, with a small force softening length, the spatial resolution is essentially determined by the mass resolution. At later times, the lower cut-off scale on convergence evolves in comoving units as a−1/2 (a being the scale factor), consistent with a hypothesis that it is set by two-body collisionality. A corollary of our results is that N-body simulations, particularly at high red-shift, contain a significant spatial range in which clustering appears converged with respect to the time-stepping and force softening but has not actually converged to the physical continuum result. The method developed can be applied to determine the resolution of any clustering statistic and extended to infer resolution limits for non-scale-free simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two-channel anomalous Hall effect in SrRuO 3

The Hall effect in SrRuO 3 thin films near the thickness limit for ferromagnetism shows an extra peak in addition to the ordinary and anomalous Hall effects. This extra peak has been attributed to a topological Hall effect due to two-dimensional skyrmions in the film around the coercive field; however, the sign of the anomalous Hall effect in SrRuO 3 can change as a function of saturation magnetization. Here we report Hall peaks in SrRuO 3 in which volumetric magnetometry measurements and magnetic force microscopy indicate that the peaks result from the superposition of two anomalous Hall channels with opposite sign. These channels likely form due to thickness variations in SrRuO 3 , creating two spatially separated magnetic regions with different saturation magnetizations and coercive fields. Overall, the results are central to the development of strongly correlated materials for spintronics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia

Knowledge of the temperature variability during the last one to two millennia is important for providing a perspective to present-day climate excursions, for assessing the sensitivity of the climate to different forcings, and for providing a test bed for climate models. Since systematic instrumental temperature records only extend back to the nineteenth century, such knowledge mainly relies on climate-sensitive proxy data. Here we critically assess some of the many challenges related to large-scale multiproxy temperature reconstructions. We begin with a review of available large-scale temperature reconstructions, focusing on the differences in low-frequency variability and the response to natural forcings such as major volcanic eruptions and changes in total solar irradiance. Then, we discuss different proxy selection strategies, review previously used reconstruction methods, and discuss their ability to reconstruct the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. To shed additional light on the challenges of large-scale reconstructions, we investigate the spatial and temporal correlation structures in the observed temperature field and discuss the implications of these correlation structures regarding the required number and positions of proxies. We demonstrate how the unavoidable uncertainty related to noisy proxies will show up as bias and variance in the reconstruction and that the partition between these forms of errors depends on the reconstruction method. Pseudo-proxy experiments are conducted to further discuss the influence of noise and the requirements regarding the geographical location and number of proxies necessary for reliably reconstructing the low-frequency variability. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for future large-scale temperature reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the microstructures of mammalian enamel by synchrotron phase contrast microCT

The enamel of mammalian teeth is a highly mineralized tissue that must endure a lifetime of cyclic contact and is inspiring the development of next-generation engineering materials. Attempts to implement enamel-inspired structures in synthetic materials have had limited success, largely due to the absence of a detailed understanding of its microstructure. Here, the present work used synchrotron phase-contrast microCT imaging to evaluate the three-dimensional microstructure of enamel from four mammals including Lion, Gray Wolf, Snow Leopard, and Black Bear. Quantitative results of image analysis revealed that the decussation pattern of enamel consists of discrete diazone (D) and parazone (P) bands of rods organized with stacking arrangement of D+/P/D-/P in all mammals evaluated; the D+ and D- refer to distinct diazone bands with juxtaposed rod orientations from the reference plane. Furthermore, the rod orientations in the bands can be described in terms of two principal angles, defined here as the pitch and yaw. While the pitch angle increases from the outer enamel to a maximum (up to ≈ 40°) near the dentin enamel junction, minimal spatial variations are observed in yaw across the enamel thickness. There are clear differences in the decussation parameters of enamel across species that are interpreted here with respect to the structural demands placed on their teeth. The rod pitch and band width of enamel are identified as important design parameters and appear to be correlated with the bite force quotient of the four mammals evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

Entrainment and aerosol effects on marine boundary-layer clouds: An investigation using ACE-ENA data from HOLODEC, G1, Pico and ACTOS (Final Report on Project Activities)

Marine boundary-layer clouds cover large regions of the globe and are known to strongly influence radiative balances. The microphysical properties and persistence of these clouds are tightly coupled with cloud-top entrainment and aerosol properties within both the boundary layer and the overlying free troposphere. This work addressed the microphysical response to entrainment and aerosol properties in marine stratocumulus clouds, using data from the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) project. Specifically, emphasis was placed on 1. extensive in situ measurements taken with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) G1 aircraft using the Holographic Detector for Clouds (Holodec) instrument; 2. airborne measurements obtained with the helicopter-borne Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) operated by the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) during the first phase of ACE-ENA; and 3. above-boundary-layer, mountain-top measurements taken at the Pico Mountain Observatory (OMP) by the research group of the co-investigator and scientists from TROPOS during the first phase of ACE-ENA. The work is aligned with the topic “Warm Boundary-Layer Atmospheric Processes.” Key results include the following. Data from the Holographic Detector for Clouds (Holodec) were reprocessed, refined, and validated through a careful instrument intercomparison, resulting in a high-quality dataset available on the ARM archive for ACE-ENA. High-resolution ACTOS measurements of thermodynamics, microphysical, and turbulence properties were analyzed to explore the behavior of the entrainment velocity at cloud top. Analysis of the vertical variability of cloud droplet size distribution shape suggests that mixing is more inhomogeneous near cloud top, and more homogeneous deeper into the cloud. Analysis of aerosol measurements from OMP explored the mixing state and cloud condensation nucleus properties, as well as the implications for radiative forcing. Finally, a machine learning algorithm was developed for identifying characteristic cloud droplet size distributions, and was employed to explore microphysical regimes in stratocumulus clouds observed during ACE-ENA. The characteristic size distributions are narrow, and only when spatially averaged do they produce the broad “gamma” distributions typically assumed in models. This implies that precipitation development should account for variability and correlations in the distribution shape as well as the number concentration of cloud droplets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of K + Force Fields on Ionic Conductivity and Charge Dynamics of KOH in Ethylene Glycol

Predicting ionic conductivity is crucial for developing efficient electrolytes for energy storage and conversion and other electrochemical applications. An accurate estimate of ionic conductivity requires understanding complex ion–ion and ion–solvent interactions governing the charge transport at the molecular level. Molecular simulations can provide key insights into the spatial and temporal behavior of electrolyte constituents. However, such insights depend on the ability of force fields to describe the underlying phenomena. In this work, molecular dynamics simulations were leveraged to delineate the impact of force field parameters on ionic conductivity predictions of potassium hydroxide (KOH) in ethylene glycol (EG). Four different force fields were used to represent the K + ion. Diffusion-based Nernst–Einstein and correlation-based Einstein approaches were implemented to estimate the ionic conductivity, and the predicted values were compared with experimental measurements. The physical aspects, including ion-aggregation, charge distribution, cluster correlation, and cluster dynamics, were also examined. A force field was identified that provides reasonably accurate Einstein conductivity values and a physically coherent representation of the electrolyte at the molecular level.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗

Seasonal and Long‐Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress

Abstract Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007–2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS‐derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗