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DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Cloud and Precipitation Properties on Temporal and Spatial Scales Using LASSO Simulations over ENA

Low clouds and precipitation representation remain a major source of uncertainty in Earth System Models (ESMs), particularly due to challenges in representing their sub-grid variability and scale-dependent sampling. This study evaluates the performance of preliminary simulations from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) project over the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud fraction (CF), and surface precipitation simulated across closed-cell, open-cell, and transitional cloud regimes. Using LES (100 m horizontal grid spacing) driven by ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses, we assess the representativeness of ground-based point observations by analyzing their correspondence to model-resolved spatial and temporal means. Results suggest that observational sampling of at least 6 hours is required to achieve consistency with domain-scale averages, in particular for observations that exhibit pronounced sub-grid heterogeneity, such as precipitation. ERA5-forced simulations exhibit improved spatial coherence and agreement with domain-averaged quantities when compared to MERRA-2 runs, with performance discrepancies largest for convective cloud conditions due to differences in forcing fidelity and temporal resolution. These findings highlight the importance of regime-aware model evaluation strategies and potentially demonstrate how LES can inform observation-model comparison practices and the development of cloud and precipitation parameterizations in ESMs.

Liang, Jiakun [University of Hawai'i at Manoa] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Cost and Benefit of Enhancing Cybersecurity for Hybrid AC/DC Grids

As critical interfaces of AC grids and DC grids inside a hybrid AC/DC grid, the voltage-sourced-converter (VSC) has been demonstrated to be vulnerable to false data injection (FDI) cyber-attacks. As a result, the cyber-attack-induced AC grid frequency deviations and DC grid voltage deviations threaten the secure operation. Here, to enhance cybersecurity in a not only feasible but also cost-effective manner, this paper proposes a cost-benefit-based cyber-defense strategy for a hybrid AC/DC grid. First, this paper establishes a spatial-temporal dual cyber-attack evaluation model, in which the cyber-attack-induced frequency and voltage deviations are modelled in both a spatially and temporally dual manner. Then, the proposed cost-benefit-based cyber-defense strategy is modelled as a VSC commitment problem to achieve the trade-off between maximizing the cyber-defense benefits and minimizing the cyber-defense costs. The VSC commitment problem is then mathematically convexified into a mixed-integer second-order cone programming (MISOCP) problem, which could be efficiently solved in an event-triggered manner against unfolding cyber-attack events. Simulation results on a test hybrid AC/DC grid verified the feasibility and the cost-effectiveness of the proposed cyber-defense strategy.

cost-benefit analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Challenges of Modeling Defect Behavior and Plasticity across Spatial and Temporal Scales: A Case Study of Metal Bilayer Impact

Atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) and a microstructural dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity (DCP) framework were used together across time scales varying from picoseconds to nanoseconds and length scales spanning from angstroms to micrometers to model a buried copper–nickel interface subjected to high strain rates. The nucleation and evolution of defects, such as dislocations and stacking faults, as well as large inelastic strain accumulations and wave-induced stress reflections were physically represented in both approaches. Both methods showed similar qualitative behavior, such as defects originating along the impactor edges, a dominance of Shockley partial dislocations, and non-continuous dislocation distributions across the buried interface. The favorable comparison between methods justifies assumptions used in both, to model phenomena, such as the nucleation and interactions of single defects and partials with reflected tensile waves, based on MD predictions, which are consistent with the evolution of perfect and partial dislocation densities as predicted by DCP. This substantiates how the nanoscale as modeled by MD is representative of microstructural behavior as modeled by DCP.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations

Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy Conversion and Electron Acceleration and Transport in 3D Simulations of Solar Flares

Recent observations and simulations indicate that solar flares undergo extremely complex 3D evolution, making 3D particle transport models essential for understanding electron acceleration and interpreting flare emissions. In this study, we investigate this problem by solving Parker’s transport equation with 3D MHD simulations of solar flares. By examining energy conversion in the 3D system, we evaluate the roles of different acceleration mechanisms, including reconnection current sheet (CS), termination shock (TS), and supra-arcade downflows (SADs). We find that large-amplitude turbulent fluctuations are generated and sustained in the 3D system. The model results demonstrate that a significant number of electrons are accelerated to hundreds of keV and even a few MeV, forming power-law energy spectra. These energetic particles are widely distributed, with concentrations at the TS and in the flare looptop region, consistent with results derived from recent hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave (MW) observations. By selectively turning particle acceleration on or off in specific regions, we find that the CS and SADs effectively accelerate electrons to several hundred keV, while the TS enables further acceleration to MeV. However, no single mechanism can independently account for the significant number of energetic electrons observed. Instead, the mechanisms work synergistically to produce a large population of accelerated electrons. Our model provides spatially and temporally resolved electron distributions in the whole flare region and at the flare footpoints, enabling synthetic HXR and MW emission modeling for comparison with observations. These results offer important insights into electron acceleration and transport in 3D solar flare regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating Catalysis with Realistic Pellet Geometries Using Mesoflow: A Case Study of Catalytic Propane Dehydrogenation

We present a case study of catalytic propane dehydrogenation with our open-source multiphysics solver, Mesoflow. The solver was developed to simulate reactive flow coupled to heterogeneous catalytic reactions and deactivation in the context of complex, mesoscale geometry. The method leverages cartesian block-structured adaptive mesh refinement to capture realistic catalyst microstructural features acquired directly from X-ray computed tomography data. A kinetic model for propane dehydrogenation and catalyst deactivation was developed based on temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor experiments. The TAP reactor experiments allow for precise characterization of intrinsic kinetic reaction steps which are implemented into Mesoflow simulations to model the spatial and temporal evolution of reactants, products, and catalyst active sites. The short-term and long-term deactivation behavior is studied by using XCT data collected from fresh and aged catalyst pellets, which exhibit different microstructural features. This study employs time-splitting algorithms to connect disparate reaction and flow timescales, enabling the simulations to achieve realistic deactivation timescales on the order of minutes while the flow time-scales for small particles (100 microns) are several milliseconds. We also introduce a flexible automated python script that writes the necessary files to construct a Mesoflow simulation from user-created chemical mechanisms. We will also introduce a few new features that are added to Mesoflow such as higher order schemes, implicit chemistry integrators and the ability to run on AMD and NVIDIA graphics-processing-units.

AMReX↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stream Temperature Prediction in a Shifting Environment: Explaining the Influence of Deep Learning Architecture

Stream temperature is a fundamental control on ecosystem health. Recent efforts incorporating process guidance into deep learning models for predicting stream temperature have been shown to outperform existing statistical and physical models. This performance is in part because deep learning architectures can actively learn spatiotemporal relationships that govern how water and energy propagate through a river network. However, exploration of how spatiotemporal awareness and process guidance influence a model's generalizability under shifting environmental conditions such as climate change is limited. Here, we use Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to interrogate how differing deep learning architectures affect a model's learned spatial and temporal dependencies, and how those learned dependencies affect a model's ability to maintain high accuracy when applied to unseen environmental conditions. Using the Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States as a test case, we compare two spatiotemporally aware process–guided deep learning models for predicting stream temperature (a recurrent graph convolution network—RGCN, and a temporal convolution graph model—Graph WaveNet). Both models achieve equally high predictive performance when testing data are well represented in the training data (test root mean squared errors of 1.64°C and 1.65°C); however, Graph WaveNet significantly outperforms RGCN in 4 out of 5 experiments where test partitions represent different types of unseen environmental conditions. XAI results show that the architecture of Graph WaveNet leads to learned spatial relationships with greater fidelity to physical processes, and that this fidelity improves the generalizability of the model when applied to shifting and/or unseen environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗

DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging observed soil heterotrophic respiration fluxes as a novel constraint on global-scale models

Microbially-explicit models may improve understanding and projections of carbon dynamics in response to future climate change, but their fidelity in simulating global-scale soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), a stringent test for soil biogeochemical models, has never been evaluated. We used statistical global RH products, as well as 7,821 daily site-scale RH measurements, to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of one first-order decay model (CASA-CNP) and two microbially-explicit biogeochemical models (CORPSE and MIMICS) that were forced by two different climate datasets. CORPSE and MIMICS did not provide any measurable performance improvement; instead, the models were highly sensitive to the meteorological input data used to drive them. Spatial RH variability was generally well simulated except in the northern middle latitudes (~50°N) and arid regions; models captured the seasonal variability of RH well, but showed more divergence in tropic and arctic regions. Our results demonstrate that the next generation of biogeochemical models shows promise, but also needs to be improved for realistic spatio-temporal variability of RH. Finally, we emphasize the importance of net primary production, soil moisture, and soil temperature inputs, and that jointly evaluating soil models for their spatial (global scale) and temporal (site scale) performance provides crucial benchmarks for improving biogeochemical models.

Jian, Jinshi↗

DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides 3-hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2014. Using sub-daily temporal information from the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3), Daymet was further temporally downscaled to 3-hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each sub-daily time step from GSWP3 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2014 Daymet-GSWP3 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗