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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of the space weather conditions on the Earth magnetosphere soft X-ray emissivity

The aim of the study is to model and characterize the soft X-ray emissivity on the Earth magnetosphere for different space weather conditions (SWC), providing information to interpret the soft X-ray measurements of the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer space mission. The MHD code pluto in spherical coordinates is used to perform parametric studies with respect to the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure (considering density and velocity effects independently) as well as the IMF intensity and orientation, predicting the soft X-ray emissivity for different SWC. The integrated soft X-ray emissivity inside the magnetosheath is calculated as a proxy of the soft X-ray emission dependencies with the SWC independently of the satellite orbit and camera line of sight. The analysis indicates fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation and magnitude may significantly affect the measured soft X-ray emission although changes in the SW dynamic pressure should be the main source of variability. The southward IMF orientation leads to the configuration with the largest soft X-ray emissivity and northward to the lowest. Strongly distorted magnetospheres explored in configurations showing SW and IMF parameters comparable to the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections may show a decrease of the soft X-ray emissivity as the IMF magnitude increases, explained by the strong magnetosphere compression and constriction of the magnetosheath region where the soft X-ray emissivity maximum is located. The simulations also indicate large excursions of the soft X-ray emissivity maximum inside the magnetosheath as the IMF magnitude and SW dynamic pressure fluctuate particularly for radial and ecliptic IMF orientations.

Earth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

The ocean plays an essential role in regulating Earth’s climate, influencing weather conditions, providing sustenance for large populations, moderating anthropogenic climate change, encompassing massive biodiversity, and sustaining the global economy. Human activities are changing the oceans, stressing ocean health, threatening the critical services the ocean provides to society, with significant consequences for human well-being and safety, and economic prosperity. Effective and sustainable monitoring of the physical, biogeochemical state and ecosystem structure of the ocean, to enable climate adaptation, carbon management and sustainable marine resource management is urgently needed. The Argo program, a cornerstone of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has revolutionized ocean observation by providing real-time, freely accessible global temperature and salinity data of the upper 2,000m of the ocean (Core Argo) using cost-effective simple robotics. For the past 25 years, Argo data have underpinned many ocean, climate and weather forecasting services, playing a fundamental role in safeguarding goods and lives. Argo data have enabled clearer assessments of ocean warming, sea level change and underlying driving processes, as well as scientific breakthroughs while supporting public awareness and education. Building on Argo’s success, OneArgo aims to greatly expand Argo’s capabilities by 2030, expanding to full-ocean depth, collecting biogeochemical parameters, and observing the rapidly changing polar regions. Providing a synergistic subsurface and global extension to several key space-based Earth Observation missions and GOOS components, OneArgo will enable biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasting and new long-term climate predictions for which the deep ocean is a key component. Driving forward a revolution in our understanding of marine ecosystems and the poorly-measured polar and deep oceans, OneArgo will be instrumental to assess sea level change, ocean carbon fluxes, acidification and deoxygenation. Emerging OneArgo applications include new views of ocean mixing, ocean bathymetry and sediment transport, and ecosystem resilience assessment. Implementing OneArgo requires about $100 million annually, a significant increase compared to present Argo funding. OneArgo is a strategic and cost-effective investment which will provide decision-makers, in both government and industry, with the critical knowledge needed to navigate the present and future environmental challenges, and safeguard both the ocean and human wellbeing for generations to come.

ARGO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Whistler Chorus Amplification in the Magnetosphere: The Nonlinear Free‐Electron Laser Model and the Ginzburg‐Landau Equation

We present a novel nonlinear model for whistler-mode chorus amplification based on the free-electron laser (FEL) mechanism. First, we derive the nonlinear collective variable equations for the whistler-electron interaction. Consistent with in situ satellite observations, these equations predict that a small seed wave can undergo exponential growth, reaching a peak of a few hundred picoteslas after a few milliseconds, followed by millisecond timescale amplitude modulations. Next, we show that when one accounts for multiple wave frequencies and wave spatial variations, the amplitude and phase of the whistler wave can be described by the Ginzburg-Landau equation (GLE), providing a framework for the investigation of solitary wave behavior of chorus modes. These findings enhance our understanding of wave-particle interactions and space weather in the Van Allen radiation belts, deepen the connection between whistler-electron dynamics and FELs, and reveal a novel connection between whistler-mode chorus and the GLE.

Ginsburg-Landau equation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orbital-Radar v1.0.0: a tool to transform suborbital radar observations to synthetic EarthCARE cloud radar data

The Earth Cloud, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched in May 2024 carries a novel 94 GHz cloud profiling radar (CPR) with Doppler capability. This work describes the open-source instrument simulator Orbital-Radar, which transforms high-resolution radar data from field observations or forward simulations of numerical models to CPR primary measurements and uncertainties. The transformation accounts for sampling geometry and surface effects. We demonstrate Orbital-Radar's ability to provide realistic CPR views of typical cloud and precipitation scenes. The presented case studies show small-scale convection, marine stratus clouds, and Arctic mixed-phase cloud cases. These results provide valuable insights into the capabilities and challenges of the EarthCARE CPR mission and its advantages over the CloudSat CPR. Finally, Orbital-Radar allows for evaluating kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction models with EarthCARE CPR observations. So, Orbital-Radar can generate calibration and validation (Cal/Val) data sets already pre-launch. Nevertheless, an evaluation of synthetic CPR output data to accurate EarthCARE CPR data is missing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CareWELL: Multimodal Region Representation Learning with Spatial Contexts for Urban Health

Rapid urbanization affects living environments by intensifying exposure to air pollution, heat, noise, and urban dynamics, which together contribute to uneven health outcomes across neighborhoods. For instance, cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health conditions are each influenced by distinct exposures such as air pollution, extreme temperatures, or limited access to green space. These heterogeneous patterns require understanding the characteristics of geographic regions in order to explain why urban health risks vary across urban areas. Recent work in self-supervised region representation learning provides a promising way to model such characteristics from multimodal geospatial data. However, existing methods face two major limitations: (i) they often depend on non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and applicability, and (ii) their generic pretraining objectives overlook health-relevant determinants, including temporal variability in environmental exposures and inequalities in social conditions. To address these gaps, we propose Context-Aware Region rEpresentation with Weather, Environment, and Location Learning (CareWELL). CareWELL leverages large language models to encode seasonal variability in weather, employs contrastive learning to align geo-coordinate and weather representations, and introduces a context-aware objective that integrates socio-demographic factors while preserving spatial correlations. We evaluate CareWELL by predicting six urban health outcomes in Manhattan, New York City, and demonstrate that CareWELL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines as well as a traditional spatial computing method. These results suggest the importance of context-aware pretraining objectives for learning health-relevant region representations.

Namgung, Min [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Arctic Observing Experiment (AOX) Field Campaign Report

Our ability to understand and predict weather and climate requires an accurate observing network. One of the pillars of this network is the observation of the fundamental meteorological parameters: temperature, air pressure, and wind. We plan to assess our ability to measure these parameters for the polar regions during the Arctic Observing Experiment (AOX, Figure 1) to support the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP), the Arctic Observing Network (AON), the International Program for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB), and the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). Accurate temperature measurements are also necessary to validate and improve satellite measurements of surface temperature across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Giant Undulations Driven by Pitch‐Angle Scattering of Time Domain Structures Modulated by Plasmapause Surface Wave

Abstract Plasmapause surface waves (PSWs) near the plasmapause boundary are regarded to be the magnetospheric source of ionospheric auroral giant undulations (GUs) located at the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora. However, the observational evidence of wave‐particle interaction connecting PSWs and GUs is absent. In this letter, we demonstrate GUs are driven by pitch‐angle scattering of time domain structures modulated by the PSWs, based on the conjugated ionospheric and magnetospheric observations. Specifically, ionospheric GUs are lighted by the pitch‐angle scattering of <1 keV thermal electron and ions and energetic ions with energy up to dozens of keV near the plasmapause. Further, the total fluxes during one PSW period and energy of scattered electron and ions determine the size and luminosity of GUs. Our research provides observational evidence that PSWs cause periodic electron precipitation via modulating the time domain structures rather than the previously predicted chorus or electron cyclotron harmonic waves.

Zhou, Yi‐Jia [Weihai Institute for Interdisciplina↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Pre‐Construction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land‐Based Wind Plants

The overall bias between pre‐construction energy yield assessment (EYA) estimates of wind plant energy production and the achieved operational production is improving in the wind industry, but uncertainty remains high for individual wind plants. Wake effects within wind plants are one of the largest sources of energy loss considered in the EYA process, and previous work shows wake loss estimates to be a major source of disagreement among wind energy consultants who perform EYAs. To better understand the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare overall operational wake loss estimates based on supervisory control and data acquisition data to pre‐construction estimates provided by six wind energy consultants for five land‐based wind plants in North America. By augmenting existing approaches for quantifying operational wake losses, we estimate wake losses during the period of record for which operational data are available as well as the expected long‐term wake losses, based on historical reanalysis weather data, to which the EYA estimates are compared. To account for power variations at different turbine locations caused by terrain‐induced wind resource heterogeneity, we correct the operational wake loss estimates using predicted freestream wind speed variations from the Wind Systems Engineering Reynolds‐averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) tool. We identify long‐term corrected operational wake losses between 1.9% and 6.4% for the five plants, with a mean loss of 4%. For the project deemed most acceptable for operational wake loss assessment, which is located in the simplest terrain and isolated from neighboring plants, the mean EYA wake loss estimate is within 0.7 percentage points of the operational value of 6.4%. For most of the remaining plants, results suggest that wake losses are generally overpredicted by 2.6–6.3 percentage points. However, operational wake losses may be underestimated for many of these projects because of spatial wind resource variations not captured by the RANS model, external wake effects that are unaccounted for in the estimation process, and wind plant blockage effects. To better understand factors that contribute to the observed wake losses, we investigate operational wake losses as a function of wind direction and wind speed. As expected, wake losses are generally concentrated near wind directions that are aligned with rows of closely spaced turbines and at below‐rated wind speeds; however, for some projects, the energy produced by the wind plant exceeds the estimated potential energy of the plant without wake interactions for certain wind directions and wind speeds, suggesting inaccurate assumptions in the wake loss estimation method for those plants. Lastly, we compare predicted and operational wake losses for individual wind turbines, finding that even when overall wake losses are predicted accurately, large uncertainty exists at the turbine level.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependencies of Simulated Convective Cell and System Growth Biases on Atmospheric Instability and Model Resolution

Abstract This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg −1 ) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg −1 ) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗