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33 records · Page 2

Space weather observations, modeling, and alerts in support of human exploration of Mars

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in transit, and those in the exploration zone (EZ) on the surface by producing alerts that are delivered rapidly and are actionable. To illustrate the importance of such a system, we use a magnetohydrodynamic code to model an extreme Carrington-type coronal mass ejection (CME) event at Mars. The results show a significant induced surface field of nearly 3,000 nT on the dayside that could radically affect unprotected electrical systems that would dramatically impact human survival on Mars. Other associated problems include coronal mass ejection (CME) shock-driven acceleration of solar energetic particles producing large doses of ionizing radiation at the Martian surface. In summary, along with working more closely with international partners, the next Heliophysics Decadal Survey must include a new initiative to meet expected demands for space weather forecasting in support of humans living and working on the surface of Mars. It will require significant effort to coordinate NASA and the international community contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Review of the August 1972 and March 1989 (Allen) Space Weather Events: Can We Learn Anything New From Them?

Abstract Updated summaries of the August 1972 and March 1989 space weather events have been constructed. The features of these two events are compared to the Carrington 1859 event and a few other major space weather events. It is concluded that solar active regions release energy in a variety of forms (X‐rays, EUV photons, visible light, coronal mass ejection (CME) plasmas and fields) and they in turn can produce other energetic effects (solar energetic particles (SEPs), magnetic storms) in a variety of ways. It is clear that there is no strong one‐to‐one relationship between these various energy sinks. The energy is often distributed differently from one space weather event to the next. Concerning SEPs accelerated at interplanetary CME (ICME) shocks, it is concluded that the Fermi mechanism associated with quasi‐parallel shocks is relatively weak and that the gradient drift mechanism (electric fields) at quasi‐perpendicular shocks will produce harder spectra and higher fluxes. If the 4 August 1972 intrinsic magnetic cloud condition (southward interplanetary magnetic field instead of northward) and the interplanetary Sun to 1 au conditions were different, a 4 August 1972 magnetic storm and magnetospheric dawn‐to‐dusk electric fields substantially larger than the Carrington event would have occurred. Under these special interplanetary conditions, a Miyake et al. (2012), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123 ‐like extreme SEP event may have been formed. The long duration complex 1989 storm was probably greater than the Carrington storm in the sense that the total ring current particle energy was larger.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration at a Spherical Shock with the Shock Normal Angle $θ$ $B_n$ Evolving in Space and Time

We present a 2D kinematic model to study the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) at a shock driven by a coronal mass ejection. The shock is assumed to be spherical about an origin that is offset from the center of the Sun. This leads to a spatial and temporal evolution of the angle between the magnetic field and the shock-normal direction (θ Bn ) as it propagates through the Parker spiral magnetic field from the lower corona to 1 au. We find that the high-energy SEP intensity varies significantly along the shock front due to the evolution of θ Bn . Generally, the west flank of the shock preferentially accelerates particles to high energies compared to the east flank and shock nose. This can be understood in terms of the rate of acceleration, which is higher at the west flank. Double power-law energy spectra are reproduced in our model as a consequence of the local acceleration and transport effects. These results will help us to better understand the evolution of SEP acceleration and provide new insights into large SEP events observed by multiple spacecraft, especially those close to the Sun, such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Superthermal Electron Deposition on the Mars Nightside During ICMEs

Superthermal electron precipitation is one of the main sources supporting the Mars nightside ionosphere. It is expected that solar wind electron fluxes are to increase significantly during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and therefore an enhanced nightside ionospheric density. This study is to quantify the variation of the precipitating and deposited electron fluxes during five extreme ICMEs encountered by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). We find that energy fluxes correlate better with the upstream dynamic pressure proxy than number fluxes and electron fluxes increase more at high energies, which means that electrons tend to have a lower peak production altitude during storm times. The precipitating and net/deposited fluxes are increased up to an order of magnitude from low to high dynamic pressures. The estimated total electron content (TEC) is a few times of 10 14 m -2 for quiet times and on the order of 1015 m -2 for storm times, with an enhancement up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields. Crustal magnetic fields have an effect on the deposited fluxes with more prominent magnetic reflection over strong magnetic fields during quiet periods, which is significantly reduced during storm times. Lastly, we estimate a global energy input from downward fluxes of 1.1 × 10 8 and 5.5 × 10 8 W and the globally deposited energy from net fluxes of 2.0 × 10 7 and 1.6 × 10 8 W for quiet and storm time periods, a factor of 5 and 8 enhancement globally, respectively, but up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Laboratory study of the failed torus mechanism in arched, line-tied, magnetic flux ropes

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are some of the most energetic and violent events in our solar system. The prediction and understanding of CMEs are of particular importance due to the impact that they can have on Earth-based satellite systems and, in extreme cases, ground-based electronics. CMEs often occur when long-lived magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) anchored to the solar surface destabilize and erupt away from the Sun. One potential cause for these eruptions is an ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability, such as the kink or torus instability. Previous experiments on the magnetic reconnection experiment revealed a class of MFRs that were torus-unstable but kink-stable, which failed to erupt. These “failed-tori” went through a process similar to Taylor relaxation, where the toroidal current was redistributed before the eruption ultimately failed. Herein we have investigated this behavior through additional diagnostics that measure the current distribution at the foot points and the energy distribution before and after an event. These measurements indicate that ideal MHD effects are sufficient to explain the energy distribution changes during failed torus events. This excludes Taylor relaxation as a possible mechanism of current redistribution during an event. A new model that only requires non-ideal effects in a thin layer above the electrodes is presented to explain the observed phenomena. This work broadens our understanding of the stability of MFRs and the mechanism behind the failed torus through the improved prediction of the torus instability and through new diagnostics to measure the energy inventory and current profile at the foot points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparing ICME simulations with scaled laboratory experiment

In stellar physics and astrophysics, numerical simulations and laboratory experiments are often compared to observational data to support their representation of the real world. However, there is also merit in comparing numerical simulations to properly scaled experiments, especially when the experiment and the simulation are both emulating the solar phenomena. Confirming the credibility of scaled experiments and their scaling with well-validated models is important to expand our knowledge of the associated physical phenomena. This is significant because experiments and simulations can be performed frequently, whereas observations may be limited by location, field of view, and missing data. In this work, we use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, a well-validated magnetohydrodynamic model, to simulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and compare it to an experiment which provides a scaled analog to a physical ICME. The experiment was performed on the Big Red Ball facility and scaled using dimensionless parameters such as plasma β and magnetosonic Mach number to reproduce the main structure of an ICME. We compare the model-simulated temperature, density, and magnetic field to those from the experiment, as well as the scaling parameters used in the experiment, to those calculated from the simulation. This comparison is performed to further justify the scaling arguments made by the experiment. Additionally, the comparison would lead to the development of stronger scaling arguments for future experiments.

Bryant, K. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗

Eruption and Self-Organization of Free-Surface, Arched, and Line-Tied Magnetic Flux Ropes (Final Technical Report)

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are some of the most energetic and violent events in our solar system. This investigation uses laboratory experiments to study the onset threshold and nonlinear consequences of ideal MHD instabilities of magnetic flux ropes where are regarded to be related CMEs, and has obtained qualitative and quantitative understanding the dynamics of magnetic flux ropes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multiple Sources of Solar High-energy Protons

During the 24th solar cycle, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has observed a total of 27 solar flares possessing delayed γ -ray emission, including the exceptionally well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2017 September 10. Based on the Fermi/LAT data, we plot, for the first time, maps of possible sources of the delayed >100 MeV γ -ray emission of the 2017 September 10 event. The long-lasting γ -ray emission is localized under the CME core. The γ -ray spectrum exhibits intermittent changes in time, implying that more than one source of high-energy protons was formed during the flare–CME eruption. We find a good statistical correlation between the γ -ray fluences of the Fermi/LAT-observed delayed events and the products of corresponding CME speed and the square root of the soft X-ray flare magnitude. Data support the idea that both flares and CMEs jointly contribute to the production of subrelativistic and relativistic protons near the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-Term Science Goals with In Situ Observations at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4

The Korean heliospheric community, led by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), is currently assessing the viability of deploying a spacecraft at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4 in collaboration with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The aim of this mission is to utilize a combination of remote sensing and in situ instruments for comprehensive observations, complementing the capabilities of the L1 and L5 observatories. The paper outlines long-term scientific objectives, underscoring the significance of multi-point in-situ observations to better understand critical heliospheric phenomena. These include coronal mass ejections, magnetic flux ropes, heliospheric current sheets, kinetic waves and instabilities, suprathermal electrons and solar energetic particle events, as well as remote detection of solar radiation phenomena. Furthermore, the mission’s significance in advancing space weather prediction and space radiation exposure assessment models through the integration of L4 observations is discussed. This article is concluded with an emphasis on the potential of L4 observations to propel advancements in heliospheric science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

L -Value and Energy Dependence of 0.1–50 keV O + , He + , and H + Ions for CME and CIR Storms Over the Entire Van Allen Probes Era

Our studies report the first observation of L -value and energy sorted correlation of differential fluxes of 0.1–50 keV O + , He + , and H + ions with different geophysical parameters for 29 Coronal Mass Ejected (CME) and 40 Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)-driven geomagnetic storms during the entire Van Allen Probes era. For both solar wind drivers, ions with ≥1 keV energies show more variability in response to the solar wind changes, while the lower energy (<1 keV) ions are relatively stable. During the in-storm interval, O + ions show maximum flux enhancement and become further prominent during CME storms. O + ion (≥10 keV) fluxes show good correlation with – $V_{sw}B_z$, and Sym-H index during CME-driven storms in the L ~2.5–5.5. Apart from this, the average duration of persistence ($\langleΔt\rangle$) for enhanced fluxes is higher for CIR-driven storms with $\langleΔt\rangle_{O^+}>\langleΔt\rangle_{He^+}>\langleΔt\rangle_{H^+}$ at E ≤ 50 keV in the L ~2.5–5.5. Moreover, the observed value of $\langleΔt\rangle_i$ (where $\textit{i}$ is O + , H + or He + ) increases with the increasing L . Further, we discuss the plausible mechanisms to provide a comprehensive overview of L -values and energy sorted O + , He + and H + ion dynamics for two different categories of solar wind drivers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scaling arguments for a plasma experiment relevant to an interplanetary coronal mass ejection

We present the design of a plasma experiment scaled to be relevant to an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) traveling from the Sun to the Earth. The experiment would launch a compact torus of plasma (the scaled analog of the coronal mass ejected by the Sun) into a magnetized background plasma (the scaled analog of the interplanetary medium, the diffuse magnetized plasma that fills the Solar System). We present the complete process of scaling the ICME system to a laboratory experiment: beginning with the ICME features that we aim to replicate with a laboratory experiment, explaining how these desired features are translated into specific design constraints, and presenting a set of experimental parameters that meet those constraints. We find that the experiment would be possible with plasma conditions typically achieved in large-scale facilities such as the Big Red Ball at the University of Wisconsin or the LArge Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simultaneous Observations of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) Waves and Pitch Angle Scattering During a Van Allen Probes Conjunction

On 22 December 2015, the two Van Allen Probes observed two sets of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave bursts during a close conjunction when both Probe A and Probe B were separated by 0.57 to 0.68 R E . Here, the EMIC waves occurred during an active period in the recovery phase of a coronal mass ejection-driven geomagnetic storm. Both spacecraft observed EMIC wave bursts that had similar spatial structure within a 1–2 min time delay. The EMIC waves occurred outside the plasmasphere, within ΔL ≈ 1–2 of the plasmapause and within a few degrees in magnetic latitude of the equatorial plane. The spatial structure of the EMIC wave bursts may have been related to the proton drift paths outside the plasmasphere and influenced by total magnetic field strength variations associated with solar wind pressure enhancements. The EMIC waves were observed in a narrow L shell region from L ≈ 4.55–5.32 between 10 and 11 magnetic local time (MLT) on the outbound halves of the spacecraft orbits and from L ≈ 4.82–5.51 between 13 and 14 MLT on the inbound halves of the spacecraft orbits. However, Pc1 pulsations were observed on the ground over a broad range of local times. The anisotropy of the proton pitch angle distributions was enhanced when the EMIC waves were observed. Although the overall radiation belt response during this storm was dominated by acceleration and transport processes, the EMIC waves produced local pitch angle scattering of 13–15 keV protons and 2.1–2.6 MeV electrons, consistent with calculations of the expected resonant energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effects of Coronal Magnetic Field Configuration on Particle Acceleration and Release during the Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 24

Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events that are of particular importance in space weather. In solar cycle 24, two GLEs were recorded on 2012 May 17 (GLE 71) and 2017 September 10 (GLE 72), respectively, using a range of advanced modern instruments. Here we conduct a comparative analysis of the two events by focusing on the effects of large-scale magnetic field configuration near active regions on particle acceleration and release. Although the active regions are both located near the western limb, temporal variations of SEP intensities and energy spectra measured in situ display different behaviors at early stages. By combining a potential field model, we find the coronal mass ejection (CME) in GLE 71 originated below the streamer belt, while in GLE 72 it originated near the edge of the streamer belt. We reconstruct the CME shock fronts with an ellipsoid model based on nearly simultaneous coronagraph images from multiple viewpoints and further derive the 3D shock geometry at the GLE onset. The highest-energy particles are primarily accelerated in the shock–streamer interaction regions, i.e., likely at the nose of the shock in GLE 71 and the eastern flank in GLE 72, due to quasi-perpendicular shock geometry and confinement of closed fields. Subsequently, they are released to the field lines connecting to near-Earth spacecraft when the shocks move through the streamer cusp region. This suggests that magnetic structures in the corona, especially shock–streamer interactions, may have played an important role in the acceleration and release of the highest-energy particles in the two events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of the space weather conditions on the Earth magnetosphere soft X-ray emissivity

The aim of the study is to model and characterize the soft X-ray emissivity on the Earth magnetosphere for different space weather conditions (SWC), providing information to interpret the soft X-ray measurements of the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer space mission. The MHD code pluto in spherical coordinates is used to perform parametric studies with respect to the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure (considering density and velocity effects independently) as well as the IMF intensity and orientation, predicting the soft X-ray emissivity for different SWC. The integrated soft X-ray emissivity inside the magnetosheath is calculated as a proxy of the soft X-ray emission dependencies with the SWC independently of the satellite orbit and camera line of sight. The analysis indicates fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation and magnitude may significantly affect the measured soft X-ray emission although changes in the SW dynamic pressure should be the main source of variability. The southward IMF orientation leads to the configuration with the largest soft X-ray emissivity and northward to the lowest. Strongly distorted magnetospheres explored in configurations showing SW and IMF parameters comparable to the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections may show a decrease of the soft X-ray emissivity as the IMF magnitude increases, explained by the strong magnetosphere compression and constriction of the magnetosheath region where the soft X-ray emissivity maximum is located. The simulations also indicate large excursions of the soft X-ray emissivity maximum inside the magnetosheath as the IMF magnitude and SW dynamic pressure fluctuate particularly for radial and ecliptic IMF orientations.

Earth↗

Complexity analysis of a CT injection experiment on BRB

In this work, we use Jensen–Shannon complexity and permutation entropy to analyze the magnetic field fluctuations of an astrophysically scaled plasma experiment. The experiment was intended to emulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection event in the lab, recreating the major sections seen in satellite data. We also use a technique called “delay,” in which we use select elements, skipping one or more data points at a time, in our time series data to obtain Jensen–Shannon complexity as a function of frequency and investigate the frequency of maximized complexity. We then compare the delay frequencies to other frequencies in the plasma. We found that the frequencies for maximum complexity do not correspond to the frequencies investigated, implying that other physical mechanisms lead to an increase in complexity at these frequencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗