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DOE OSTI2019

Novel stochastic methods to predict short-term solar radiation and photovoltaic power

Solar forecasting has evolved towards becoming a key component of economical realization of high penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper presents two novel stochastic forecasting models for solar PV by utilizing historical measurement data to outline a short-term high-resolution probabilistic behavior of solar. First, an uncertain basis functions method is used to forecast both solar radiation and PV power. Three possible distributions are considered for the uncertain basis functions - Gaussian, Laplace, and Uniform distributions. Second, stochastic state-space models are applied to characterize the behaviors of solar radiation and PV power output. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to recursively estimate the system parameters and state variables. This enables the system to accurately forecast small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The introduced forecasting models are suitable for real-time tertiary dispatch controllers and optimal power controllers. The PV forecasting models are tested using solar radiation and PV power measurement data collected from a 13.5 kW PV panel installed on the rooftop of our laboratory. Furthermore, the results are compared with standard time series forecasting mechanisms and show a substantial improvement in the forecasting accuracy of the total energy produced.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Multi-region Modeling of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Artificial Intelligence Ensemble

Solar radiation data are crucial for the design and evaluation of solar energy systems, climatic studies, water resources management, estimating crop productivity, etc. As so, for locations where direct measurements are not available, reliable models may be developed to estimate solar radiation from more readily available data. In this study, two artificial intelligence (AI)-based models including artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, three temperature-based empirical models including Meza–Varas, Hargreaves–Samani, and Chen, and a conventional multi-linear regression (MLR) model were employed for multi-region daily global solar radiation estimation for Iraq. To ensure appropriate selection of input variables, sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the dominant parameters. Finally, two ensemble approaches, neural average ensemble and simple average ensemble, were applied to improve the performance of the single models. For this purpose, daily meteorological data of maximum temperature (T{sub max}), minimum temperature (T{sub min}), mean temperature (T{sub mean}), relative humidity (R{sub H}), and wind speed (U{sub 2}) were obtained from January 2006 to December 2016 from four major cities in Iraq representing, north, west, south, and east regions. The results revealed that temperatures (T{sub max}, T{sub mean}, T{sub min}) and relative humidity are the dominant parameters. While temperature-based empirical models and MLR model could be employed to achieve reliable results, AI-based models are superior in performance to other models. Also promising improvement in daily global solar radiation modeling could be achieved by model ensemble. The results of this study affirmed that the provided ensemble approaches can increase the performance of single models up to 19.19%, 7.59%, and 16.81% in training, validation, and testing steps, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Effect of Orientation of Ice Crystals in Cirrus on Direct and Scattered Solar Radiation Fluxes

The problem of solar radiation transfer by cirrus containing horizontally oriented ice crystals urgent today is considered. The results of a complex radiation experiment are described in which solar radiation fluxes at the Earth’s surface are measured and high-level clouds are vertically sensed by a polarization lidar. The lidar allows the full backscattering phase matrix (BSPM) to be determined. The degree of orientation of ice crystals in cirrus is estimated from the form of the BSPM elements and their interrelations. It is shown experimentally for the first time that the degree of orientation of crystalline particles in cirrus has a significant effect on the direct and scattered solar radiation fluxes arriving at the Earth’s surface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

Study of the processes of degradation of the optical properties of mesoporous and macroporous silicon upon exposure to simulated solar radiation

The effect of solar radiation on the surface composition of mesoporous and macroporous silicon is studied by infrared spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and photoluminescence measurements in order to analyze the possibility of using these materials as a material for solar-power engineering. The studies are conducted in the laboratory environment, with the use of a solar-radiation simulator operating under conditions close to the working conditions of standard silicon solar cells. The studies show that, in general, the materials meet the requirements of solar-power engineering, if it is possible to preclude harmful effects associated with the presence of heat-sensitive and photosensitive bonds at the nanomaterial surface by standard processing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-guided machine learning for improved accuracy of the National Solar Radiation Database

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution spatiotemporal solar irradiance data for the entire globe. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) to compute the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on the solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. Physical and optical cloud properties are fundamental inputs to the PSM and are derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. This paper describes recent improvements to the NSRDB driven by physics-guided machine learning methods for cloud property retrieval. The impacts of these new methods on the NSRDB irradiance data are validated using an extensive set of ground measurement sites, showing significant improvement for all sites. We report on average, the mean absolute percentage error for global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance show reductions of 2.16 and 3.95 percentage points respectively for all daylight conditions, 5.92 and 17.39 percentage points respectively for cloudy conditions, and 9.00 and 22.59 percentage points respectively for gap-filled cloudy conditions. These new methods will help improve the quality and accuracy of the irradiance and cloud data in the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a serially complete collection of meteorological and solar irradiance data sets for the United States and a growing list of international locations for 1998-2023. The NSRDB is updated annually and provides foundational information to support U.S. Department of Energy programs, research, industry and the general public. The NSRDB provides time-series data at 30-minute resolution of resource averaged over surface cells of 0.038 degrees in both latitude and longitude, or nominally 4 km in size. Additionally time series data at 5 minutes for the US and 10 minutes for North, Central and South America at 2 km resolution are produced from the next generation of GOES satellites and made available from 2019. The solar radiation values represent the resource available to solar energy systems. The data was created using cloud properties which are generated using the AVHRR Pathfinder Atmospheres-Extended (PATMOS-x) algorithms developed by the University of Wisconsin. Fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) in conjunction with the cloud properties, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) from ancillary source are used to estimate solar irradiance (GHI, DNI, and DHI). The Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is computed for clear skies using the REST2 model. For cloud scenes identified by the cloud mask, FARMS is used to compute GHI and FARMS DNI is used to compute the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI). The PATMOS-X model uses radiance images in visible and infrared channels from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series of geostationary weather satellites. Ancillary variables needed to run REST2 and FARMS (e.g., aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, and albedo) are derived from NASA's Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis (MERRA-2) dataset. Temperature and wind speed data are also derived from MERRA-2 and provided for use in NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) to compute PV generation.

aerosol↗

NASA NTRS1989

Solar radiation

The effects of solar radiation in aerospace environments on aerospace systems are examined. It was concluded that most materials degrade to solar radiation. The information available on short term effects on materials provides a limited data base. Flight data on coating degradation seems to be confused by contamination. Other conclusions of data examination are listed.

Slemp, Wayne S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Comparison of Time Series Gap-Filling Methods to Impute Solar Radiation Data

Complete solar resource datasets play a critical role at every stage of solar project phases. However, measured or modeled solar resource data come with significant uncertainties and usually suffer from several issues, including but not limited to, data gaps, data quality issue, etc. In order to mitigate these issues an appropriate data imputation method should be implemented to build a complete and reliable temporal (and spatial) database. Being motivated by this, in this study we compare the performances of eight different gap filling methods extensively by creating random and artificial data gaps in (i) hourly irradiance data for one year using a few locations of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and (ii) one-minute ground measurement dataset from Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) stations.

clearness index↗

NASA NTRS1977

Correlation of total, diffuse, and direct solar radiation

Present requirements for realistic solar energy system evaluations necessitate a comprehensive body of solar-radition data. The data should include both diffuse and direct solar radiation as well as their total on an hourly (or shorter) basis. In general, however, only the total solar radiation values were recorded. This report presents a correlation that relates the diffuse component of an hourly total solar radiation value to the total radiation ratio of the maximum value attainable. The data used were taken at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Massachusetts, for the period 1952. The relation - in the form of the data plots - can be used in situations in which only the hourly total radiation data are available but the diffuse component is desired.

Buyco, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Investigation of multispectral remote sensing of snow cover using a solar radiation model

A solar radiation model is described which is able to calculate, for given atmospheric and topographic input conditions, the spectral distributions of the direct and diffuse components of the total irradiance incident upon a target surface. The irradiance includes both upwelling radiation backscattered toward the earth's surface and radiation reflected toward the target from other terrain surfaces. Spectral reflectance data for two dissimilar snow types are fed into the model, along with a geometric description of the topography of the snow covered terrain. These data permit the calculation of the exitance of the target over the wavelength limits of a given sensor and, hence, the apparent contrast between the two snow types for the given input conditions. The results show that the contrast between the two snow types, all other factors being constant, is greatest in the near infrared wavelengths.

Waterman, S. E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

India Solar Resource Data: National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution solar radiation data for long periods of time, which allows user to have a clear understanding of the spatial and temporal correlation of the data to determine the true impact of solar variability on the grid. This fact sheet specifically outlines solar resource data for India included in NSRDB.

energy systems↗

NASA NTRS1994

A rapid radiative transfer model for reflection of solar radiation

A rapid analytical radiative transfer model for reflection of solar radiation in plane-parallel atmospheres is developed based on the Sobolev approach and the delta function transformation technique. A distinct advantage of this model over alternative two-stream solutions is that in addition to yielding the irradiance components, which turn out to be mathematically equivalent to the delta-Eddington approximation, the radiance field can also be expanded in a mathematically consistent fashion. Tests with the model against a more precise multistream discrete ordinate model over a wide range of input parameters demonstrate that the new approximate method typically produces average radiance differences of less than 5%, with worst average differences of approximately 10%-15%. By the same token, the computational speed of the new model is some tens to thousands times faster than that of the more precise model when its stream resolution is set to generate precise calculations.

Xiang, X.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) using GHI measurements and a cloud retrieval technique

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Here, we introduce a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposes the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle are accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique is used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction are predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-min exponential weighted moving average, respectively. Our model evaluation using the long-term observations of GHI at NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the PSPI has a better performance than the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 min, which is more significant in cloudy-sky conditions. Finally, compared to the persistence and smart persistence models, the PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters but is customizable in that additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the GHI forecast. An advanced technology of cloud forecast is also expected to improve the future performance of the PSPI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Use of MERRA-2 in the National Solar Radiation Database and Beyond

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a flagship product of NREL that provides solar radiation and ancillary meteorological information through a GIS based portal. This data is provided at a 4kmx4km spatial and 30 minute temporal resolution covering the period between 1998-2015. The gridded data that is distributed by the NSRDB is derived from satellite measurements using the Physical Solar Model (PSM) that contains a 2-stage approach. This 2-stage approach consists of first retrieving cloud properties using measurement from the GOES series of satellites and using that information in a radiative transfer model to estimate solar radiation at the surface. In addition to the satellite data the model requires ancillary meteorological information that is provided mainly by NASA's Modern Era Retrospecitve Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) 2 model output. This presentation provides an insight into how the NSRDB is developed using the PSM and how the various sources of data including the MERRA-2 data is used during the process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

Radiation transfer in plant canopies - Transmission of direct solar radiation and the role of leaf orientation

Understanding the details of the interaction between the radiation field and plant structures is important climatically because of the influence of vegetation on the surface water and energy balance, but also biologically, since solar radiation provides the energy necessary for photosynthesis. The problem is complex because of the extreme variety of vegetation forms in space and time, as well as within and across plant species. This one-dimensional vertical multilayer model describes the transfer of direct solar radiation through a leaf canopy, accounting explicitly for the vertical inhomogeneities of a plant stand and leaf orientation, as well as heliotropic plant behavior. This model reproduces observational results on homogeneous canopies, but it is also well adapted to describe vertically inhomogeneous canopies. Some of the implications of leaf orientation and plant structure as far as light collection is concerned are briefly reviewed.

Verstraete, Michel M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Solar radiation on Mars

Detailed information on solar radiation characteristics on Mars are necessary for effective design of future planned solar energy systems operating on the surface of Mars. Presented here is a procedure and solar radiation related data from which the diurnally, hourly and daily variation of the global, direct beam and diffuse insolation on Mars are calculated. The radiation data are based on measured optical depth of the Martian atmosphere derived from images taken of the sun with a special diode on the Viking cameras; and computation based on multiple wavelength and multiple scattering of the solar radiation.

Appelbaum, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1990

Solar radiation on Mars

Appelbaum, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1989

Working group written presentation: Solar radiation

The members of the Solar Radiation Working Group arrived at two major solar radiation technology needs: (1) generation of a long term flight data base; and (2) development of a standardized UV testing methodology. The flight data base should include 1 to 5 year exposure of optical filters, windows, thermal control coatings, hardened coatings, polymeric films, and structural composites. The UV flux and wavelength distribution, as well as particulate radiation flux and energy, should be measured during this flight exposure. A standard testing methodology is needed to establish techniques for highly accelerated UV exposure which will correlate well with flight test data. Currently, UV can only be accelerated to about 3 solar constants and can correlate well with flight exposure data. With space missions to 30 years, acceleration rates of 30 to 100X are needed for efficient laboratory testing.

Slemp, Wayne S.↗