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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Gamma-ray and hard X-ray imaging of solar flares

The scientific and technical aspects of high-resolution gamma-ray and X-ray imaging of solar flares are discussed. The scientific necessity for imaging observations of solar flares and the implications of future observations for the study of solar flare electrons and ions are considered. Performance parameters for a future hard X-ray and gamma-ray imager are summarized. Techniques for high-energy photon imaging including direct collimation imaging, coded apertures, and modulation collimators are surveyed. The technique of Fourier-transform imaging is examined. The options for detectors and grid fabrication are reviewed. Several planned future high-energy imagers are described.

Prince, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Least-Squares Prediction of Solar Activity

Studies of statistical methods for predicting future solar activity described in report containing extensive graphical and tabular presentations of analyses. Lagrangian-least-squares method, which gives best predictions presented in detail. FORTRAN source code for method given.

Holland, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar corona studies using normal-incidence X-ray optics

The progress which has been made in constructing a new type of X-ray telescope, which operates at normal incidence in the soft X-ray region by the use of multilayer coatings is described. The principles involved in state-of-the-art multilayer technology and some high-resolution imaging results are discussed. A rocket payload incorporating a multilayer X-ray mirror is presently being constructed. It is of Ritchey-Chretien design and the expected spatial resolution is 1/4 arcsec. The scientific program for solar-coronal studies and future instrumental developments are also discussed.

Golub, L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

NASA NTRS1991

Laboratory studies in ultraviolet solar physics

The research activity comprised the measurement of basic atomic processes and parameters which relate directly to the interpretation of solar ultraviolet observations and to the development of comprehensive models of the component structures of the solar atmosphere. The research was specifically directed towards providing the relevant atomic data needed to perform and to improve solar diagnostic techniques which probe active and quiet portions of the solar chromosphere, the transition zone, the inner corona, and the solar wind acceleration regions of the extended corona. The accuracy with which the physical conditions in these structures can be determined depends directly on the accuracy and completeness of the atomic and molecular data. These laboratory data are used to support the analysis programs of past and current solar observations (e.g., the Orbiting solar Observatories, the Solar Maximum Mission, the Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount, and the Naval Research Laboratory's rocket-borne High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph). In addition, we attempted to anticipate the needs of future space-borne solar studies such as from the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. Our laboratory activities stressed two categories of study: (1) the measurement of absolute rate coefficients for dielectronic recombination and electron impact excitation; and (2) the measurement of atomic transition probabilities for solar density diagnostics. A brief summary of the research activity is provided.

Parkinson, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Small Spacecraft for Planetary Atmospheric, Surface, and Interior Structure Using Radio Links

Scientific studies using spacecraft radio links have been conducted on almost every Solar System exploration mission in the past five decades and have led to numerous discoveries. Radio Science experiments have elucidated the thermal history of the Moon from high resolution gravitational field measurements, unveiled the interiors of Titan, Enceladus, Mercury, Phobos, Vesta and Ceres providing key evidence for identifying subsurface oceans on icy moons; sounded Titan, Saturn, and Pluto’s atmospheres, and refined models for the atmospheres, surfaces, and interior structure of Mars and Venus. A Juno experiment is in progress measuring the gravitational field of Jupiter to reveal its interior structures, as did a similar recent Cassini experiment with Saturn. Experiments at Mercury, the Jovian system, and other targets, are in development or planning phases. Over the next 30 years, significant advances in radio and laser link-science technologies, including nearly one order of magnitude improvement achievable in range-rate and range accuracy, could enable many new scientific breakthroughs. Future exploration concepts in many cases focus on applications of small spacecraft and can include spacecraft constellations for studies of atmospheric dynamics, interior structures, and surface properties. A set of science-enabling radio link technologies specific to small spacecraft instrumentation on future solar system missions are under study and development. Examples include field tests of radio scattering to determine soil properties, smallsat constellations for dense geographic and temporal atmospheric probing, small science-quality software-defined transponders, miniature ultra-stable oscillators, and advanced radio-metric calibrations at the Deep Space Network. This paper describes many of these technologies and their scientific applications.

Elliott, Harvey↗

NASA NTRS2012

Future Gamma-Ray Imaging of Solar Eruptive Events

Solar eruptive events, the combination of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), accelerate ions to tens of Gev and electrons to hundreds of MeV. The energy in accelerated particles can be a significant fraction (up to tens of percent) of the released energy and is roughly equipartitioned between ions and electrons. Observations of the gamma-ray signatures produced by these particles interacting with the ambient solar atmosphere probes the distribution and composition of the accelerated population, as well as the atmospheric parameters and abundances of the atmosphere, ultimately revealing information about the underlying physics. Gamma-ray imaging provided by RHESSI showed that the interacting approx.20 MeV/nucleon ions are confined to flare magnetic loops rather than precipitating from a large CME-associated shock. Furthermore, RHESSI images show a surprising, significant spatial separation between the locations where accelerated ions and electrons are interacting, thus indicating a difference in acceleration or transport processes for the two types of particles. Future gamma-ray imaging observations, with higher sensitivity and greater angular resolution, can investigate more deeply the nature of ion acceleration. The technologies being proven on the Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares (GRIPS), a NASA balloon instrument, are possible approaches for future instrumentation. We discuss the GRIPS instrument and the future of studying this aspect of solar eruptive events.

Shih, Albert↗

NASA NTRS2023

Predicting Patterns of Solar Energy Buildout to Identify Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation

The construction of solar energy facilities can have positive or negative impacts on biodiversity depending on siting and associated land use transitions. We identified drivers of solar siting and quantified patterns of buildout in states surrounding the Chesapeake Bay watershed – a biodiversity hotspot with numerous ecosystem services. Using a convolutional neural network, we mapped the footprints of ground-mounted solar arrays present in satellite imagery annually from 2017 to 2021 in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, and West Virginia. As of 2021, we identified 958 solar arrays covering 52.3 km2 built primarily on previously cultivated land, while avoiding natural landcover. We fit a binomial-Weibull model to these solar timeseries data in a hierarchical, Bayesian framework to quantify the relationship between geospatial covariates and rate of solar development. Solar array construction rate increased in cultivated areas, areas of lower agricultural suitability, lower slope, lower forest cover, lower biodiversity protection, and greater distances from roads. We also estimated changes in the rate of solar construction over time and found differences among states: acceleration in Virginia and deceleration in New York. We used parameter estimates to map the relative likelihood of future solar development across the study area. This methodology can be used to anticipate where solar is likely to be built in different landscapes and how these patterns align with conservation goals. Around the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the selection of lower quality agricultural areas for solar energy minimizes removal of important habitat and provides opportunities for native plant and pollinator restoration.

Artificial Intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying impacts of process, precursors, and defects in metal halide perovskite solar cells

With efficiencies of halide perovskite solar cells stagnating over the last few years at values above 25% and approaching thermodynamic limits, focus must shift to ensuring stability of these devices over the long term. The overarching goal of this project was to understand the root causes of instability in halide perovskite solar cells. Our approach was rooted in fundamental scientific pursuits, determining at the molecular level those processes responsible for degradation of the metal halide perovskite system, either in the precursor ink, or in the solid state. We then used this understanding to show that degradation leads to midgap states in halide perovskite semiconductors, explaining loss in performance; also, this in-depth understanding allowed us to develop specifically targeted solutions to prevent these degradation mechanisms. These include guidance about amines in perovskite inks, solvents to use (and not to use), and impacts of Cs incorporation to perovskite inks and solids. Finally, we achieved our end-of-project goal and demonstrated an effective lifetime of a halide perovskite solar cell of 5000 h, including measurement of devices over 3000 h, amongst the longest in the field. Overall, this project has considerably pushed forward the science of perovskite degradation and sets examples and groundwork for future studies to enable halide perovskite solar cells to be a successful solar energy conversion technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Gamma-Ray Data from Solar Flares in Cycles 21 and 22

One of our primary accomplishments under grant NAGW-35381 was the systematic derivation and compilation, for the first time, of physical parameters for all gamma-ray flares detected by the SMM GRS during its ten year lifetime. The flare parameters derived from the gamma-ray spectra include: bremsstrahlung fluence and best-fit power-law parameters, narrow nuclear line fluence, positron annihilation line fluence, neutron capture line fluence, and an indication of whether or not greater than 10 MeV emissions were present. We combined this compilation of flare parameters with our plots of counting rate time histories and flare spectra to construct an atlas of gamma-ray flare characteristics. The atlas time histories display four energy bands: 56-199 kev, 298526 keV, 4-8 MeV, and 10-25 MeV. These energy bands respectively measure nonrelativistic bremsstrahlung, trans-relativistic bremsstrahlung, nuclear de-excitation, and ultra-relativistic bremsstrahlung. The atlas spectra show the integrated high-energy spectra measured for all GRS flares and dissects them into electron bremsstrahlung, positron annihilation and nuclear emission components. The atlas has been accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplements and is currently in press. The atlas materials were also supplied to the Solar Data Analysis Center at Goddard Space Flight Center and were made available through a web site at the University of New Hampshire. Since a uniform methodology was adopted for deriving the flare parameters, this atlas will be very useful for future statistical and correlative studies of solar flares-three independent groups are presently using it to correlate interplanetary energetic particle measurements with our gamma-ray measurements. A better model for the response of the GRS instrument to high energy radiation was also developed. A refined response model was needed because the old model was not adequate for predicting the first and second escape peaks associated with strong nuclear lines nor could it accurately describe the Compton continuum shape. The new response was developed using a GEANT based simulation code and tested against preflight calibration data. The refinement of the response model and the removal of systematic errors now allow more detailed spectral studies of the GRS gamma-ray measurements. This refined response function was supplied to the Solar DAC at Goddard and was also made available via a web site at the University of New Hampshire.

Vestrand, W. Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Does the Sun have a dark disk?

The Sun is not quite a perfect sphere, and its oblateness, thought to be induced through its rotation, has been measured using optical observations of its radius. Its gravitational quadrupole moment can then be deduced using solar models, or through helioseismology, and it can also be determined from measurements of its gravitational effects on Mercury’s orbit. The various assessments do not appear to agree, with the most complete and precise orbital assessments being in slight excess of other determinations. This may speak to the existence of a nonluminous disk or ring, where we also note evidence for a circumsolar dust ring within Mercury’s orbit from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission. Historically, too, a protoplanetary disk may have been key to reconciling the Sun’s metallicity with its neutrino yield. The distribution of the nonluminous mass within Mercury’s orbit can modify the relative size of the optical and orbital quadrupole moments in different ways. We develop how we can use these findings to limit the mass of a dark disk, ring, or halo in the immediate vicinity of the Sun, and we note how future observational studies of the inner Solar System can not only refine these constraints but can also help to identify and to assess the mass of its dark-matter component. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1982

International solar system exploration - Opportunities and obstacles

A review is conducted of the exploration of the solar system carried out with the aid of various types of spacecraft during the past two decades, taking into account also space missions planned for thy next few years. A wealth of information has been obtained regarding the planets and their satellites. However, there remain many important questions concerning the solar system, and a continuation of space exploration for the solution of these questions appears highly desirable, particularly when the comparatively little cost of these missions is taken into account. However, major fiscal limitations within the U.S. economy have led to pressure to postpone any new solar system exploration projects unless there can be major reductions in their cost. A special committee has been studying the options for future low-cost solar system exploration missions, giving attention also to some options for international implementation. Various aspects of joint space projects are examined.

Moore, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The S-PLUS Fifth Data Release: Over 4500 Square Degrees of the Southern Sky and a Multicolor View of the Hydra and Antlia Galaxy Clusters

Abstract We present the fifth data release (DR5) of the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey (S-PLUS), covering 4592 deg 2 across 2491 fields. Observations were conducted with the T80-South, a Brazilian robotic telescope equipped with the Javalambre 12-filter system, containing five broadband and seven narrowband filters. Data products feature FITS images and extensive catalogs containing fluxes, magnitudes, and shape parameters for over 113 million detections. In addition, several value-added catalogs are provided, offering photometric redshifts (photo- zs ), object classifications, masks, and extinction coefficients. For the first time, this release includes coverage of 110 deg 2 along the Galactic disk, facilitating new research into Galactic structure and stellar populations. The release also provides full coverage of the Hydra Supercluster and numerous other nearby clusters with improved data reduction and calibration, enhancing photo- z accuracy, which is vital for large-scale structure studies. A preliminary analysis of the Hydra and Antlia galaxy clusters up to 5 × R 200 yields an updated catalog of 1706 cluster members based on both spectroscopic and high-quality photo- zs . Our photometric data shows that both clusters have a similar proportion of galaxies with an H α excess relative to their clustercentric distance, though Hydra has a higher fraction near its center. Additionally, the spatial distribution of all objects in our sample highlights a bridge connecting both clusters. We verify that S-PLUS DR5 provides a solid foundation for future scientific investigations, ranging from solar system studies to cosmology.

Vinicius Rodrigues de Lima, Erik [Universidade de ↗

NASA NTRS1988

Star Formation and the Solar System

We have seen that studies of nearby star-forming regions are beginning to reveal the first signs of protoplanetary disks. Studies of interstellar and interplanetary grains are starting to provide clues about the processing and incorporation of matter into the Solar System. Studies of meteorites have yielded isotopic anomalies which indicate that some of the grains and inclusions in these bodies are very primitive. Although we have not yet detected a true interstellar grain, some of these materials have not been extensively modified since their removal from the ISM. We are indeed close to seeing our interstellar heritage. The overlap between astronomical and Solar System studies is in its infancy. What future experiments, observations, and missions can be performed in the near future that will greatly enhance our understanding of star formation and the formation of the Solar System?

Bally, John↗

NASA NTRS2014

Solar System Exploration Augmented by Lunar and Outer Planet Resource Utilization: Historical Perspectives and Future Possibilities

Establishing a lunar presence and creating an industrial capability on the Moon may lead to important new discoveries for all of human kind. Historical studies of lunar exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and industrialization all point to the vast resources on the Moon and its links to future human and robotic exploration. In the historical work, a broad range of technological innovations are described and analyzed. These studies depict program planning for future human missions throughout the solar system, lunar launched nuclear rockets, and future human settlements on the Moon, respectively. Updated analyses based on the visions presented are presented. While advanced propulsion systems were proposed in these historical studies, further investigation of nuclear options using high power nuclear thermal propulsion, nuclear surface power, as well as advanced chemical propulsion can significantly enhance these scenarios. Robotic and human outer planet exploration options are described in many detailed and extensive studies. Nuclear propulsion options for fast trips to the outer planets are discussed. To refuel such vehicles, atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has also been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen (H2) can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and H2 (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses have investigated resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. These analyses included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists.

Palaszewski, Bryan↗