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The Activity Profiles and Peak Flux of Radar Meteor Showers

Meteor showers are transient phenomena; a limited duration is what distinguishes a shower from a sporadic source. They do not, however, have clear start and end times; instead, shower activity gradually (or rapidly) increases over time, reaches a peak, and then decays. In this report, we examine the activity profiles of 38 meteor showers using 20 years of single-station shower fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We find that a number of showers, such as the Southern delta Aquariids (SDAs), exhibit a broad maximum in activity rather than a sharp peak. We also find that approximately one-third of showers exhibit asymmetric activity profiles in which the rate in which activity rises prior to the peak differs from the rate at which it decays after the peak. We provide a functional form for meteor shower activity profiles that incorporates these features and use these profile fits to estimate each shower’s peak flux. This report also includes an uncertainty analysis for CMOR fluxes. This includes the first (to our knowledge) characterization of systematic uncertainty in radar meteor fluxes.

A V Moorhead↗

Performance of D-Parameters in Isolating Meteor Showers from the Sporadic Background

It is often necessary to draw a division between meteor showers and the sporadic meteor complex in order to study these components of the meteoroid environment. Meteor showers persist for less than a season and are composed of members with a greater-than-average degree of orbital similarity. The level of orbital similarity is often quantified using so-called D-parameters; a D-parameter cutoff may be employed to define or extract a shower. Depending on the study, this cutoff value may be chosen based on the size of the data-set, the percentage of sporadic meteors within the data-set, or the inclination of the shower in question. We argue that the cutoff value should also reject the strength of the shower compared to the local sporadic background. We therefore present a method for determining, on a per-shower basis, the D-parameter cutoff that limits the false-positive rate to an acceptable percentage. If the false-positive rate exceeds this percentage regardless of cutoff value, we deem the shower to be undetectable in our data. We apply this method to optical meteor observations from the NASA All-Sky and Southern Ontario Meteor Networks and present the detectable meteor showers and their characteristics.

Moorhead, Althea↗

The Threshold at which a Meteor Shower Becomes Hazardous to Spacecraft

Although the risk posed to spacecraft due to meteoroid impacts is dominated by the sporadic complex, meteor showers can raise this risk for short periods of time. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office issues meteor shower forecasts that describe these periods of elevated risk, primarily for the purpose of helping plan extravehicular activities. These forecasts are constructed using a list of meteor shower parameters that has evolved over time to include newly discovered showers and incorporate improved measurements of their characteristics. However, at this point more than a thousand meteor showers have been reported by researchers, many of which are extremely minor, are unconfirmed, or lack critical pieces of data. Thus, a comprehensive approach to forecasting is no longer feasible. In this report we present a quantitative criterion for a potentially hazardous meteor shower and apply this criterion to the list of established meteor showers in order to determine which showers should be included in our annual forecasts

Althea Moorhead↗

Structure of air shower disc near the core

The longitudinal structure of the air shower disk is studied by measuring the arrival time distributions of air shower particles for showers with electron size in the range 3.2 x 10 to the 5.5. power to 3.2 x 10 to the 7.5 power in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm squared atmospheric depth). The average FWHM as a parameter of thickness of air shower disk increases with core distances at less than 50m. AT the present stage, dependence on electron size, zenith angle and air shower age is not apparent. The average thickness of the air shower disk within a core distance of 50m could be determined by an electromagnetic cascade starting from the lower altitude.

Inoue, N.↗

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers were improved. In 2016 the MEO also adapted the forecast to the cislunar environment for the first time. We plan to make additional improvements to the model in the next two years using optical meteor flux measurements and mass indices.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

Composition of primary cosmic rays near the bend from a study of hadrons in air showers at sea level

Data on hadrons in air showers arriving at sea level were studied to find sensitivity to primary cosmic ray composition. The rate of showers which satisfy minimum shower density and hadron energy requirements as well as the rate of showers containing hadrons delayed with respect to the electron shower front are compared to Monte Carlo simulations. The data on the rate of total triggers and delayed hadrons are compared to predicted rates for two models of primary composition. The data are consistent with models which require an increasing heavy nuclei fraction near 10 to the 15th power eV. The spectra which are consistent with the observed rate are also compared to the observed shower size spectrum at sea level and mountain level.

Mincer, A. I.↗

Comparison of big event with calculations of the air shower development

The incidence of high energy hadrons and electron-photons in air showers at various stages of development is calculated. Numerical calculation is used to solve the diffusion equation for a nuclear cascade and analytical calculation for cascade shower induced gamma rays. From these calculations, one can get the longitudinal development of the high energy hadron and electron-photon components, and the energy spectra of these components at various depths of air shower development. The total number of hadrons (N sub H) and electron-photon components (N sub gamma) are related according to stages of the air shower development and primary energy. The relation of the total energy of hadron and electron-photon component above the threshold energy is given. The energy balance between both components is also a useful parameter to study high energy events accompanying air showers. The relation of N sub H and fractional hadronic energy E (sum E sub H sup gamma/sum E sub H sup gamma + Sum E sub gamma) is calculated. This relation is helpful to understand the stage of air shower development(t) and primary energy (E sub p).

Niwa, M.↗

Progress report on a new search for free e/3 quarks in the cores of 10(15) - 10(16) eV air showers

The Leeds 3 sq m Wilson cloud chamber is being used in a new search for free e/3 quarks close to the axes of 10 to the 15th power - 10 to the 16th power eV air showers. A ratio trigger circuit is used to detect the incidence of air shower cores; the position of the shower center and the axis direction are determined from photographs of current-limited spark chambers. It is thus possible, for the first time, to know where we have looked for quarks in air showers and to select for scanning only those cloud chamber photographs where we have good evidence that the shower axis was close to the chamber. 250 g/sq cm of lead/concrete absorber above the cloud chamber serve to reduce particle densities and make a quark search possible very close to the shower axes. The current status of the search is given.

Hodson, A. L.↗

Extensive air showers (HE-4)

Ultra high energy (UHE) gamma ray astronomy is an exciting area which has added a new sense of purpose to ground based array work. There is much to be done before UHE gamma ray showers can be understood properly and it is important to remain conservative with claims while the properties of such showers are still not clear. The muon content is only one of the properties that needs to be clarified. It remains to be seen how well progress occurs on the second order problem of detailed interaction parameters once the gross features are clarified. The shower disk thickness has become an area of intense study with interest in Linsley's technique for measuremnts of giant showers and in the study of structure near the core for improving fast timing and studying delayed subshowers. Perhaps the most significant area of promise for the future is individual shower develpments with Cerenkov and, particularly, air fluorescence techniques. The importance and potential of having relatively complete information on a complete set of individual showers can hardly be overestimated. A complete understanding of the observation process is needed to determine whether or not the recorded data set is complete at a given energy, apparent core distance, and zenith angle.

Clay, R. W.↗

Depth Distribution Of The Maxima Of Extensive Air Shower

Observations of the extensive air showers from space can be free from interference by low altitude clouds and aerosols if the showers develop at a sufficiently high altitude. In this paper we explore the altitude distribution of shower maxima to determine the fraction of all showers that will reach their maxima at sufficient altitudes to avoid interference from these lower atmosphere phenomena. Typically the aerosols are confined within a planetary boundary layer that extends from only 2-3 km above the Earth's surface. Cloud top altitudes extend above 15 km but most are below 4 km. The results reported here show that more than 75% of the showers that will be observed by EUSO have maxima above the planetary boundary layer. The results also show that more than 50% of the showers that occur on cloudy days have their maxima above the cloud tops.

Adams, J. H.↗

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts

Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.

Cooke, W.↗

Collecting Comet Samples by ER-2 Aircraft: Cosmic Dust Collection During the Draconid Meteor Shower in October 2012

Many tons of dust grains, including samples of asteroids and comets, fall from space into the Earth's atmosphere each day. NASA periodically collects some of these particles from the Earth's stratosphere using sticky collectors mounted on NASA's high-flying aircraft. Sometimes, especially when the Earth experiences a known meteor shower, a special opportunity is presented to associate cosmic dust particles with a known source. NASA JSC's Cosmic Dust Collection Program has made special attempts to collect dust from particular meteor showers and asteroid families when flights can be planned well in advance. However, it has rarely been possible to make collections on very short notice. In 2012, the Draconid meteor shower presented that opportunity. The Draconid meteor shower, originating from Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, has produced both outbursts and storms several times during the last century, but the 2012 event was not predicted to be much of a show. Because of these predictions, the Cosmic Dust team had not targeted a stratospheric collection effort for the Draconids, despite the fact that they have one of the slowest atmospheric entry velocities (23 km/s) of any comet shower, and thus offer significant possibilities of successful dust capture. However, radar measurements obtained by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar during the 2012 Draconids shower indicated a meteor storm did occur October 8 with a peak at 16:38 (+/-5 min) UTC for a total duration of approximately 2 hours.

Bastien, Ron↗

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2015 Geminid Meteor Shower

Meteoroids cannot be observed directly because of their small size. In-situ measurements of the meteoroid environment are rare and have very small collecting areas. The Moon, in contrast, has a large collecting area and therefore can be used as a large meteoroid detector for gram-kilogram sized particles. Meteoroids striking the Moon create an impact flash observable by Earth-based telescopes. Their kinetic energy is converted to luminous energy with some unknown luminous efficiency η(v), which is likely a function of meteoroid velocity (among other factors). This luminous efficiency is imperative to calculating the kinetic energy and mass of the meteoroid, as well as meteoroid fluxes, and it cannot be determined in the laboratory at meteoroid speeds and sizes due to mechanical constraints. Since laboratory simulations fail to resolve the luminous efficiency problem, observations of the impact flash itself must be utilized. Meteoroids associated with specific meteor showers have known speed and direction, which simplifies the determination of the luminous efficiency. NASA has routinely monitored the Moon for impact flashes since early 2006 [1]. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon, yielding a sufficient sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. [2, 3] and further described by Moser et al. [4], utilizing Earth-based measurements of the shower flux and mass index. The Geminid meteor shower has produced the most impact flashes in the NASA dataset to date with over 80 detections. More than half of these Geminids were recorded in 2015 (locations pictured in Fig. 1), and may represent the largest single-shower impact flash sample known. This work analyzes the 2015 Geminid lunar impacts and calculates their luminous efficiency. The luminous efficiency is then applied to calculate the kinetic energies and mass-es of these shower meteoroids.

Moser, D. E.↗

Design, fabrication and acceptance testing of a zero gravity whole body shower, volume 1

The effort to design whole body shower for the space station prototype is reported. Clothes and dish washer/dryer concepts were formulated with consideration given to integrating such a system with the overall shower design. Water recycling methods to effect vehicle weight savings were investigated and it was concluded that reusing wash and/or rinse water resulted in weight savings which were not sufficient to outweigh the added degree of hardware complexity. The formulation of preliminary and final designs for the shower are described. A detailed comparison of the air drag vs. vacuum pickup method was prepared that indicated the air drag concept results in more severe space station weight penalties; therefore, the preliminary system design was based on utilizing the vacuum pickup method. Tests were performed to determine the optimum methods of storing, heating and sterilizing the cleansing agent utilized in the shower; it was concluded that individual packages of pre-sterilized cleansing agent should be used. Integration features with the space station prototype system were defined and incorporated into the shower design as necessary.

Source record↗

Phenomenological characteristic of the electron component in gamma-quanta initiated showers

The phenomenological characteristics of the electron component in showers initiated by primary gamma-quanta were analyzed on the basis of the Tien Shan experimental data. It is shown that the lateral distribution of the electrons ion gamma-quanta initiated showers can be described with NKG - function with age parameters bar S equals 0, 76 plus or minus 0, 02, different from the same parameter for normal showers with the same size bar S equals 0, 85 plus or minus 0, 01. The lateral distribution of the correspondent electron energy flux in gamma-quanta initiated showers is steeper as in normal cosmic ray showers.

Nikolsky, S. I.↗

Radio wave emitted by an extensive air showers in 10KHz to 1MHz region

The importance of radio waves in a frequency range of less than 1MHz in an EAS shower is discussed. Estimates of radio intensities at 10KHz, 100KHz and 1MHz in EAS showers made on the basis of the Kahn-Lerche theory. Negative charge excess in a shower is the main source of low frequency radio emission, in spite of the importance of the contribution of transverse current in the geomagnetic field in a higher frequency range. An estimate is also made for radio intensity produced when the shower hits the ground. The contribution of this process seems to be important at a large distance, i.e., beyond 1km from the shower axis.

Nichimura, J.↗

Arrival time distributions of electrons in air showers with primary energies above 10 (18)eV observed at 900m above sea level

Detection of air showers with primary energies above 10 to the 19th power eV with sufficient statistics is extremely important in an astrophysical aspect related to the Greisen cut off and the origin of such high energy cosmic rays. Recently, a method is proposed to observe such giant air showers by measuring the arrival time distributions of air-shower particles at large core distances with a mini array. Experiments to measure the arrival time distributions of muons were started in 1981 and those of electrons in early 1983 in the Akeno air-shower array (930 gcm cm squared atmospheric depth, 900m above sea level). During the time of observation, the detection area of the Akeno array was expanded from 1 sq km to sq km in 1982 and to 20 sq km in 1984. Now the arrival time distribution of electrons and muons can be measured for showers with primary energies above 1019eV at large core distances.

Kakimoto, F.↗