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DOE OSTI2021

Field validation of an actuated convergent-beam acoustic Doppler profiler for high resolution flow mapping

Abstract Energetic river and tidal flow environments feature complex hydrodynamic conditions. Conventional acoustic Doppler profiling instrumentation typically requires assumptions of flow homogeneity over the spatial scales of the divergent beam separation. This removes the ability to measure spatio-temporal variability within the flow. However, velocity variability within these spatial scales is often important in the design of structures and devices exposed to such flow, informing dynamic and peak hydrodynamic load predictions. The research presented outlines the development and testing of a flow measurement instrument consisting of multiple spatially-separated single beam acoustic Doppler profilers converging on a remote focal point, the location of which can be programmatically adjusted through actuation. This increases the spatial resolution at which remote field measurements can be made in energetic flow environments. Field testing of the instrument was conducted in a tidal channel at Sequim Bay Inlet, WA, USA. Results are compared with independent reference measurements made by a co-located, motion-corrected acoustic Doppler velocimeter. This comparison, across tidal velocities of 0.4–0.7 m s −1 , showed a mean velocity error of 0.5%–13.2% across nine sample locations within a 3.00 m × 2.25 m plane. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication of flow velocity results from non-intrusive acoustic measurements at an off-axis, focal point location that features 3D positional control.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mixing and dilution controls on marine CO 2 removal using alkalinity enhancement

Marine CO 2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m -3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO 2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr -1 ) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km 2 ) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO 2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m -2 yr -1 , higher than the 63 mmol m -2 yr -1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO 2 yr -1 . It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO 2 yr -1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO 2 yr -1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO 2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Summary of Adsorption Capacity and Adsorption Kinetics of Uranium and Other Elements on Amidoxime-based Adsorbents from Time Series Marine Testing at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been conducting marine testing of uranium adsorbent materials for the Fuel Resources Program, Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) beginning in FY 2012. The marine testing program is being conducted at PNNL’s Marine Sciences Laboratory (MSL), located at Sequim Bay, along the coast of Washington. One of the main efforts of the marine testing program is the determination of adsorption capacity and adsorption kinetics for uranium and selected other elements (e.g. vanadium, iron, copper, nickel, and zinc) for adsorbent materials provided primarily by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), but also includes other Fuel Resources Program participants. This report summarizes the major marine testing results that have been obtained to date using time series sampling for 42 to 56 days using either flow-through column or recirculating flume exposures. The major results are highlighted in this report, and the full data sets are appended as a series of Excel spreadsheet files. Over the four year period (2012-2016) that marine testing of amidoxime-based polymeric adsorbents was conducted at PNNL’s Marine Science Laboratory, there has been a steady progression of improvement in the 56-day adsorbent capacity from 3.30 g U/kg adsorbent for the ORNL 38H adsorbent to the current best performing adsorbent prepared by a collaboration between the University of Tennessee and ORNL to produce the adsorbent SB12-8, which has an adsorption capacity of 6.56 g U/kg adsorbent. This nearly doubling of the adsorption capacity in four years is a significant advancement in amidoxime-based adsorbent technology and a significant achievement for the Uranium from Seawater program. The achievements are evident when compared to the several decades of work conducted by the Japanese scientists beginning in the 1980’s (Kim et al., 2013). The best adsorbent capacity reported by the Japanese scientists was 3.2 g U/kg adsorbent for a 180 day deployment at temperatures between 15 and 25 °C (Kim et al., 2013) The majority of the capacities the Japanese scientists reported were less than 2 g U/kg adsorbent (Kim et al., 2013). Repeated time series measurements of a common formulation of amidoxime-based adsorbent, the ORNL AF series, by both flow-through column (3.91 ± 0.11 g U/kg adsorbent). and recirculating flume exposures (4.03 ± 0.12 g U/kg adsorbent) produced 56-day adsorption capacities that agreed extremely well. This excellent agreement generates confidence that the testing procedures are accurate and reliable, and, moreover, that the technology to produce the adsorbents is highly reliable and reproducible, lending additional confidence of the robustness and homogeneity of the production technology.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequim Campus Master Plan

Based in Richland, Washington, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of ten U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) national laboratories. PNNL is DOE’s premier chemistry, earth sciences, and data analytics laboratory, delivering vital mission impacts in energy resiliency and national security. PNNL has 19 core capabilities, each a powerful combination of world-class staff, state-of-the- art equipment, and mission-ready facilities. These capabilities represent a collective set of skills and a body of world-leading scientific and engineering work that provides exceptional value and mission delivery to DOE, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and other federal agencies and industry through strategic partnership projects on a not-to-interfere basis. Currently operated by Battelle Memorial Institute, PNNL occupies more than 2.3 million gross square feet (GSF) of buildings and employs approximately 4,700 staff members. PNNL has implemented a rolling 10-year campus strategy, initiated in fiscal year 2013, designed to deliver the foundation for the multidisciplinary science and engineering expertise, equipment, instrumentation, facilities, and infrastructure required to continue providing exceptional value and mission delivery. This strategy is incorporated into PNNL’s annual Laboratory Plan, which serves as DOE-SC’s equivalent of the Five- Year Site Plan required by DOE Order 430.1C Chg. 1, Real Property Asset Management. The PNNL Sequim Campus is located in Clallam County, just outside of Sequim, Washington. PNNL Sequim builds upon a rich history of research related to marine and coastal resources, environmental chemistry, water resources modeling, ecotoxicology, biotechnology, and national security. Facilities at the PNNL Sequim Campus were designed to take advantage of two unique locational assets: the pristine coastal ocean water in Sequim Bay and the region’s exceptionally clean air. Research facilities on the waterfront are supplied with up to 200 gallons per minute (gpm) of seawater and/or groundwater that enables research on aquatic systems ranging from fully seawater to fresh water, with an onsite water treatment system that removes all biological and hazardous chemical residues prior to discharge. Multiple large seawater tanks outside the waterfront laboratories, along with a boat ramp, pier, and floating dock, enable lab-to-field research. The uplands facility takes advantage of the amazing air quality and is built and operated to enable ultratrace chemical/radiological analytical chemistry. This combination of capabilities is not available at any other marine laboratory in the nation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-variable, Multi-value Hydrodynamic Modeling Approach to Support Marine Energy and Coastal Resilience Applications

Funded by the Marine Energy Seedling Laboratory Program, the study reported on here aimed to develop a multi-variable, multi-value hydrodynamic modeling approach based on the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to support a wide range of marine renewable energy and coastal resilience applications. We migrated the marine hydrokinetic energy module to simulate tidal energy extraction by tidal turbines under wave-current interactions. We explored the particle tracking module in FVCOM and applied it to Sequim Bay, Washington, to illustrate the surface current field and mimic the pollutant transport near the surface. A tracer-water age module was added to FVCOM to examine water exchange through the entrance. Lastly, a user-specified vertical coordinate option was added to FVCOM to improve simulation of the effect of floating turbines on surface currents and scalar transport. The above-described model development has been tested using a simplified model domain and demonstrated in real-world coastal systems. The outcome of this project will provide a useful modeling code and approach for marine renewable energy and coastal resilience research and applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cost Efficiency of Environmental DNA as Compared to Conventional Methods for Biodiversity Monitoring Purposes at Marine Energy Sites

The installation of marine energy systems may affect marine environments, and by extension, marine fish communities. Therefore, biomonitoring is an integral part of assessing impacts on species. Environmental DNA (eDNA) provides a noninvasive alternative to conventional monitoring surveys and the possibility of a more accurate assessment of species richness. Yet, its cost efficiency compared to traditional methods of monitoring is relatively unknown, especially when applied to monitoring around tidal, wave, and offshore wind energy installations. For this study, 202 peer-reviewed journal articles were dissected to inventory the diversity of supplies used for collecting and processing eDNA samples and to compile the average cost of eDNA surveys. Information collected included the type, volume, and brand of containers used in sampling; material, size, and brand of filters; and extraction methods. Cost information was gathered for the most common supplies, and a total cost was estimated for a hypothetical eDNA survey in Sequim Bay, WA, to compare with traditional methods of surveying such as beach seining and scuba surveys. The results showed a higher-than-expected diversity of supplies to collect and process eDNA samples. The most common supplies were 1 L Nalgene bottles at an average cost of 7.96 USD for collecting samples, 0.45 µm glass fiber Merck Millipore filters at an average cost of 1.51 USD for filtering samples, and the Qiagen DNeasy Blood and Tissue kit at 3.54 USD per sample for extracting DNA. When compared to beach seine and scuba surveys, eDNA surveys undertaken by senior researchers are less expensive for both initial surveys with all new materials as well as for follow-up surveys reusing some of the supplies. However, when surveys are done solely by students, eDNA surveys are more expensive than scuba surveys when no prior supplies are available and more than both beach seine and scuba surveys for follow-up surveys reusing supplies. In a professional sphere, where surveys are less often conducted by teams of students only, eDNA surveys are an effective and less-costly alternative to conventional methods. We anticipate that the development and refinement of eDNA methodology will continue to decrease surveying costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

TEAMER - Acoustic Particle Velocity Measurements - CRADA 601 (Abstract)

With relatively few deployments of tidal turbines, the extent and effect of underwater sounds generated from these turbines is not well understood. The University of Washington (UW) is deploying a cross-flow turbine system, the Turbine Lander, in the entrance channel to Sequim Bay. The deployment of this system provides an opportunity to understand the noise radiated by the turbine and its sources. There are three hypothesized sound sources associated with operation of the turbine: 1) a continuous tone associated with energized power electronics; 2) sound associated with the generator when the turbine is rotating; and 3) sound associated with the bearing pack that supports the rotor. PNNL is collaborating with UW and Integral Consulting Inc. (Integral) to simultaneously measure sound sources using three different devices. The NoiseSpotter®, an acoustic sensor system designed by Integral, measures acoustic pressure and a three-dimensional particle velocity vector. The NoiseSpotter, along with a commercial-off-the-shelf acoustic particle motion and pressure sensor (M20-105, Geospectrum Technologies Inc.) owned by PNNL will be deployed on the seabed approximately 50-100 m from the Turbine Lander. UW will concurrently deploy Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstems (DAISYs) to characterize acoustic pressure near the Turbine Lander and localize sounds using a Time Delay of Arrival (TDOA) algorithm. Integral, UW, and PNNL will collaborate on data analysis and interpretation, with the intention of jointly authoring an archival paper on the results. The noise generated from the Turbine Lander is not expected to be significant, yet this experiment will help to evaluate the efficacy of combining technologies to characterize noise and provide insights for approaches to consider for future turbine deployments at other locations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

TEAMER – Harvesting Subsea Water Motion to Provide Clean Electrical Power (Abstract)

Power generation from vortex induced vibration (VIV) is an emerging field with new technologies that are just beginning to be field tested. In this TEAMER project, WITT Energy will be field testing the power production of its pendulum system in two different configurations to evaluate its performance. The amount of power produced by a VIV instrument depend on the frequency at which it vibrates. The vibrational frequency is controlled by the device shape and its interaction with the flow velocity. Computer models are used to predict vibration frequencies as a function of flow velocity but they may be inaccurate due to complicated bathymetry and bottom roughness that is not captures by the models. This project will test the WITT VIV device in the Sequim Bay channel over a range of tidal velocities. Two tests will be completed with different pipe lengths that are expected to vary the vibrational frequency and therefore the power produced. PNNL will use an acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) to monitor the flow conditions during the tests. These tests will help WITT Energy evaluate how closely field operations follow computer model predictions and how best to configure their device for electricity production.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Acoustic Particle Velocity Measurements around a Tidal Current Turbine

Quantifying the underwater sound produced by tidal turbines is essential both to understand their potential environmental impacts and to understand how that sound might interfere with the intended application of the turbine (e.g., powering acoustic monitoring systems). In this project, we measured the sound radiated by a small-scale crossflow tidal turbine. The turbine was deployed from October 2023 to March 2024 in the tidal channel at the entrance to Sequim Bay, WA. Acoustic measurements were made with three different sensor packages: a commercial-off-the-shelf vector sensor (operated by PNNL), a vector sensor array (operated by Integral Consulting), and drifting hydrophones (operated by UW). Acoustic recordings from the three sensors highlight changes in the turbine acoustic signature over the course of a tidal cycle and throughout the 6-month turbine deployment. Our results also highlight the utility of acoustic vector sensors for localizing sound attributable to marine energy devices in acoustically complex environments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Background Magnetic Fields at Marine Energy Sites: Challenges and Recommendations

Unknowns around the environmental effects of marine renewable energy have slowed the deployment of this emerging technology worldwide. Established testing methods are necessary to safely permit and develop marine energy devices. Magnetic fields are one potential cause of environmental effects and are created when electricity is generated and transmitted to shore. Further, the existing variation of the background magnetic field at sites that may be developed for marine energy is largely unknown, making it difficult to assess how much additional stress or impact the anthropogenic magnetic field may have. This study investigates two instruments for their ability to characterize the background magnetic fields at a potential marine energy site in Sequim Bay, WA. Based on this evaluation, this study recommends an Overhauser magnetomer for assessing the background magnetic field and demonstrates the use of this sensor at a potential marine energy site.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS OF A VECTOR SENSOR ARRAY IN AN ENERGETIC TIDAL CHANNEL

A compact three-dimensional vector sensor array (termed the NoiseSpotter) was recently developed with the goal of characterizing and localizing sources of sound in energetic environments such as those where marine renewable energy devices are likely to be located. The three vector sensors on the NoiseSpotter are mounted on a bottom platform with each sensor suspended inside an optional flow noise removal shield. The multiple pressure and particle velocity channels on the NoiseSpotter are simultaneously sampled and stored on-board to enable coherent array processing of vector sensor array data. A series of field trials were conducted where the NoiseSpotter was deployed on a bottom platform in an 8 m deep tidal channel in Sequim Bay, Washington. Pure tones were transmitted from a drifting vessel whose distance from the bottom platform varied between 50 m and 500 m. The effect of flow noise on vector sensor array performance is quantified along with the detectability of low intensity sound in an energetic environment. Flow noise removal efficiency for each channel of every vector sensor is demonstrated using multiple metrics derived from the active and reactive intensities computed using the pressure-velocity cross-spectral density matrix. A flow noise removal shield is shown to improve the detectability of low intensity sound such as those that are expected to be emitted by marine renewable energy devices.

Raghukumar, Kaustubha↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

DOE OSTI2025

Blue Carbon Stocks Along the Pacific Coast of North America Are Mainly Driven by Local Rather Than Regional Factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

emergent marsh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tidal–hydrological dynamics of water temperature across freshwater forested wetlands on the northeastern Pacific coast

Abstract Tidal freshwater forests were once extensive across temperate coastlines, but loss and fragmentation have made estimation of their ecosystem functions challenging. We measured water temperature for 2 years in three Sitka spruce tidal forests, a restoration site, and an adjacent emergent marsh on the Columbia River, Washington, United States. We assessed spatial variability of water temperature within sites including the effects of hydrology, differences among bay and tributary tidal forests, and differences between the tidal forests and the mainstem Columbia, the restoration site, and the emergent marsh. The tidal forests nearest to the bay had lower interior water temperatures than their channel confluences by up to 2.5°C (weekly median temperature) and 2.0°C (weekly maximum temperature), with most cooling occurring during the low‐flow months of July–September. Tributary sites had maximum temperatures up to 1.9°C cooler than bay sites and 4.2°C cooler than the mainstem. Temperatures in the two bay sites decreased by −0.16°C/100 m and −0.07°C/100 m, on average. The restoration site had the smallest within‐site temperature gradient. Differences in maximum temperatures were greatest when tidal range was low, while higher tidal ranges were associated with warmer and more variable site interiors relative to their confluences. These results suggest that water temperatures in these tidal forests can provide temperature refugia for cold water biota including salmon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

DOE OSTI2025

The hidden influence of terrestrial groundwater on salt marsh function and resilience

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing and carbon sequestration. So far, studies addressing spatiotemporal variability in and drivers of salt marsh biogeochemical function, carbon storage and resilience have focused on ocean-driven surface hydrologic influences, neglecting effects of terrestrial hydrology through subsurface connections. Here we evaluate drivers of salt marsh redox potential, a proxy for biogeochemical state, through wavelet analyses and information theory using data from seven marshes. The results point to terrestrial groundwater level as a dominant control on redox variability across all sites. Because redox is a key driver of biogeochemical processes, and specifically oxidation of organic matter that sequesters carbon and maintains marsh elevation, these terrestrial influences are critical to understanding marsh function and evolution. Further, the newly identified links between onshore groundwater levels and marsh redox conditions shift the traditional paradigm and suggest that terrestrial hydrology is a primary control on salt marsh carbon sequestration potential and resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗