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At least 37 records · Page 2

Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance. This study highlights the large sensitivity of SOA loadings to the particle-phase transformation of SOA volatility, which is neglected in most previous models.

Shrivastava, Manish↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. In conclusion, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Sensitivity analysis for III–V/Si tandem solar cells: A theoretical study

Material and structural parameters may affect the efficiency of a tandem solar cell differently from the way they do in a single-junction solar cell. Here, we fabricated a III–V/Si four-terminal tandem solar cell and developed an opto-electronic model simulating this device. The optical properties were simulated with the transfer matrix method, while the electrical properties were simulated using the numerical device simulator PC1D. For this simulated tandem structure, we determined the parameters which have the largest potential impact on the device efficiency. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of these parameters on the device efficiency was also performed. Furthermore, to reduce the cost of the tandem solar cells, we identified the parameters that do not require tight control during the manufacturing process. The Si cell was simulated both as a single-junction cell and as the bottom cell of a tandem device. Lastly, we determined those device parameters that are more critical in a tandem configuration than in a single-junction configuration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty quantification in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubular composites using global sensitivity analysis

Silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC f /SiC m ) tubes produced through the chemical vapor infiltration process have become a candidate cladding material in nuclear applications. The performance of this composite is influenced by many variables such as braiding angle, porosity, material properties, etc., which vary over a range of values due to the inherent fluctuations in the manufacturing process. In this study, the variability in elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m composite has been quantified through multiscale finite element (FE) simulations, variable screening, and high-fidelity surrogate modeling. The key variables dominantly affecting the elastic constants of SiC f /SiC m tubes were identified using global sensitivity analysis. A surrogate to the high-fidelity FE-based model was used in Monte Carlo simulations to generate a hundred thousand samples from which the uncertainty in elastic constants was assessed. It turned out that the coefficient of variation was less than 10%.

Materials Science↗

Integrated Sensitivity Analysis Workflow

Sensitivity analysis is a crucial element of rigorous engineering analysis, but performing such an analysis on a complex model is difficult and time consuming. The mission of the DART Workbench team at Sandia National Laboratories is to lower the barriers to adoption of advanced analysis tools through software integration. The integrated environment guides the engineer in the use of these integrated tools and greatly reduces the cycle time for engineering analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Plant Performance to Key Turbine Design Parameters: A Systems Engineering Approach; Preprint

This paper introduces the development of a new software framework for research, design, and development of wind energy systems which is meant to 1) represent a full wind plant including all physical and nonphysical assets and associated costs up to the point of grid interconnection, 2) allow use of interchangeable models of varying fidelity for different aspects of the system, and 3) support system level multidisciplinary analyses and optimizations. This paper describes the design of the overall software capability and applies it to a global sensitivity analysis of wind turbine and plant performance and cost. The analysis was performed using three different model configurations involving different levels of fidelity, which illustrate how increasing fidelity can preserve important system interactions that build up to overall system performance and cost. Analyses were performed for a reference wind plant based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW reference turbine at a mid-Atlantic offshore location within the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Transient thermoelasticity and other body force effects in boundary element shape sensitivity analysis

Structural shape design sensitivity analysis (DSA) is presented for objects subjected to gravity, centrifugal, and general thermal loading. DSA employs implicit differentiation of the governing boundary integral equations. Both a surface integral and a particular integral approach are discussed for computation of these effects in response analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is shown that the particular integral approach is capable of computing the sensitivities of objects subjected to nonharmonic temperature distributions. Attention is also given to several techniques for the modeling of temperature distributions in the DSA process. In particular, an approach that eliminates the need for the incorporation of thermal response analysis and sensitivity analysis is described in the overall shape optimization process. A sharp corner formulation is also presented that can account for the jump in the surface traction components at a sharp corner in an interzone boundary.

Kane, James H.↗

Sensitivity analysis on chaotic dynamical systems by Non-Intrusive Least Squares Shadowing (NILSS)

This paper develops the Non-Intrusive Least Squares Shadowing (NILSS) method, which computes the sensitivity for long-time averaged objectives in chaotic dynamical systems. In NILSS, we represent a tangent solution by a linear combination of one inhomogeneous tangent solution and several homogeneous tangent solutions. Next, we solve a least squares problem using this representation; thus, the resulting solution can be used for computing sensitivities. NILSS is easy to implement with existing solvers. In addition, for chaotic systems with many degrees of freedom but few unstable modes, NILSS has a low computational cost. NILSS is applied to two chaotic PDE systems: the Lorenz 63 system and a CFD simulation of flow over a backward-facing step. In both cases, the sensitivities computed by NILSS reflect the trends in the long-time averaged objectives of dynamical systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Results of an integrated structure/control law design sensitivity analysis

A design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Cost, Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, which predicts change in the optimal control law due to changes in fixed problem parameters using analytical sensitivity equations is discussed. Numerical results of a design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimally controlled aircraft's response to various problem formulation and physical aircraft parameters is determined. These results are used to predict the aircraft's new optimally controlled response if the parameter was to have some other nominal value during the control law design process. The sensitivity results are validated by recomputing the optimal control law for discrete variations in parameters, computing the new actual aircraft response, and comparing with the predicted response. These results show an improvement in sensitivity accuracy for integrated design purposes over methods which do not include changes in the optimal control law. Use of the analytical LQG sensitivity expressions is also shown to be more efficient than finite difference methods for the computation of the equivalent sensitivity information.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

Preconditioned domain decomposition scheme for three-dimensional aerodynamic sensitivity analysis

A discrete sensitivity analysis algorithm had previously been developed and applied to two-dimensional aerodynamic optimization problems, where the computational domains were discretized by using single grids. The sparse, unsymmetric systems of linear equations resulting from this algorithm were solved by a direct matrix inversion matrix. However, for large two-dimensional problems and, practically, all three-dimensional problems, direct inversion methods become inapplicable, primarily due to the prohibitive computer storage needed. In an attempt to alleviate such hindrances, the sensitivity analysis with domain decomposition (SADD) scheme was developed. This scheme divides the computational domain into smaller and nonoverlapping subdomains (multiblock grids) that are solved separately. Then, the final solution is constructed from the subdomain solutions. As the number of grid points in the interface boundaries of the subdomains becomes large, the computer memory required to store the effective coefficient matrix of these interface points starts to increase. Presented in this Technical Note is a preconditioned iterative procedure to overcome this particular problem.

Eleshaky, Mohamed E.↗

Sensitivity analysis of torsional vibration characteristics of helicopter rotor blades. Part 2: Aerodynamics and sensitivity analysis

A theoretical investigation of dynamic response characteristics of rotor blades was carried out with special emphasis on torsional degrees-of-freedom. Coupled equations of motion for flapwise bending and torsion were formulated at varying azimuth positions for rotor blades with noncollinear aerodynamic, elastic and mass axes. Both structural and aerodynamic mass, damping and stiffness coefficients were included. The variations of a sample blade at different flight conditions were investigated from these equations. The obtained numerical results were illustrated. The sensitivity of overall blade vibration characteristics to torsional oscillations was also investigated from the equations of motion for the sample blade. The illustrated results show the importance of torsional degrees-of-freedom in rotor blade analysis. Various possibilities of improving the overall response by tuning blade geometric, structural and aerodynamic characteristics are discussed.

Bratanow, T.↗

Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗