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NASA NTRS1997

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Critical Heat Flux of Liquid Hydrogen, Liquid Methane, and Liquid Oxygen: A Review of Available Data and Predictive Tools

Available experimental data dealing with critical heat flux (CHF) of liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ), liquid methane (LCH 4 ), and liquid oxygen (LO 2 ) in pool and flow boiling are compiled. The compiled data are compared with widely used correlations. Experimental pool boiling CHF data for the aforementioned cryogens are scarce. Based on only 25 data points found in five independent sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for predicting the pool CHF of LH 2 . Only two experiments with useful CHF data for the pool boiling of LCH 4 could be found. Four different correlations including the correlation of Lurie and Noyes (1964) can predict the pool boiling CHF of LCH 4 within a factor of two for more than 70% of the data. Furthermore, based on the 19 data points taken from only two available sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for the prediction of pool CHF of LO 2 . Flow boiling CHF data for LH 2 could be found in seven experimental studies, five of them from the same source. Based on the 91 data points, it is suggested that the correlation of Katto and Ohno (1984) be used to predict the flow CHF of LH 2 . No useful data could be found for flow boiling CHF of LCH 4 or LO 2 . The available databases for flow boiling of LCH 4 and LO 2 are generally deficient in all boiling regimes. This deficiency is particularly serious with respect to flow boiling.

Multi-Phase Flow↗

NASA NTRS2023

Critical Heat Flux of Liquid Hydrogen, Liquid Methane, and Liquid Oxygen: A Review of Available Data and Predictive Tools

Available experimental data dealing with critical heat flux (CHF) of liquid hydrogen (LH2), liquid methane (LCH4), and liquid oxygen (LO2) in pool and flow boiling are compiled. The compiled data are compared with widely used correlations. Experimental pool boiling CHF data for the aforementioned cryogens are scarce. Based on only 25 data points found in five independent sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for predicting the pool CHF of LH2. Only two experiments with useful CHF data for the pool boiling of LCH4 could be found. Four different correlations including the correlation of Lurie and Noyes (1964) can predict the pool boiling CHF of LCH4 within a factor of two for more than 70% of the data. Furthermore, based on the 19 data points taken from only two available sources, the correlation of Sun and Lienhard (1970) is recommended for the prediction of pool CHF of LO2. Flow boiling CHF data for LH2 could be found in seven experimental studies, five of them from the same source. Based on the 91 data points, it is suggested that the correlation of Katto and Ohno (1984) be used to predict the flow CHF of LH2. No useful data could be found for flow boiling CHF of LCH4 or LO2. The available databases for flow boiling of LCH4 and LO2 are generally deficient in all boiling regimes. This deficiency is particularly serious with respect to flow boiling.

Multi-Phase Flow↗

NASA NTRS2022

New Directions in Tropical Phenology

Earth’s most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a ‘temperate phenological paradigm’ expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical – and temperate – phenology.

tropical phenology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Hay-stack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. As part of the calibration process, certain areas in the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce. Over the years, Error Localization Algorithms (ELA) have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be effective for error localization. The paper will present several FEM example problems where ELA is used with simulated test data to determine FEM problem areas. For each example, the correct answer is shown along with ELA results. It is shown that the ELA process is able to identify general problem areas in the FEM, which are consistent with known model perturbations. However, in most cases the ELA identified area of improvement is larger than the true answer. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

error localization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Haystack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA, as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles, routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. During model calibration, certain areas of the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce and infrequently applied. Over the years, error localization algorithms have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be an effective Error Localization Algorithm (ELA). The paper discusses three examples where ELA is used with simulated test data to locate problem areas. To gain confidence in the approach, the exact answer is shown along with ELA results. Results show that ELA is able to identify general problem areas consistent with known problem areas. In all examples, the ELA identified area is larger than the exact problem area. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

model calibration↗

NASA NTRS2002

Incorporating Biological Knowledge into Evaluation of Casual Regulatory Hypothesis

Biological data can be scarce and costly to obtain. The small number of samples available typically limits statistical power and makes reliable inference of causal relations extremely difficult. However, we argue that statistical power can be increased substantially by incorporating prior knowledge and data from diverse sources. We present a Bayesian framework that combines information from different sources and we show empirically that this lets one make correct causal inferences with small sample sizes that otherwise would be impossible.

Chrisman, Lonnie↗

NASA NTRS1992

A new activity index for comets

An activity index, AI, is derived from observational data to measure the increase of activity in magnitudes for comets when brightest near perihelion as compared to their inactive reflective brightness at great solar distances. Because the observational data are still instrumentally limited in the latter case and because many comets carry particulate clouds about them at great solar distances, the application of the activity index is still limited. A tentative application is made for the comets observed by Max Beyer over a period of nearly 40 years, providing a uniform magnitude system for the near-perihelion observations. In all, 32 determinations are made for long-period (L-P) comets and 15 for short-period (S-P). Although the correlations are scarcely definitive, the data suggest that the faintest comets are just as active as the brightest and that the S-P comets are almost as active as those with periods (P) exceeding 10(exp 4) years or those with orbital inclinations of i less than 120 deg. Comets in the range 10(exp 2) less than P less than 10(exp 4) yr. or with i greater than 120 deg appear to be somewhat more active than the others. There is no evidence to suggest aging among the L-P comets or to suggest other than a common nature for comets generally.

Whipple, Fred L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Northeast US Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Invasive Plant Habitat Suitability to Support Management Efforts in the American Northeast

Invasive plant species threaten environmental and economic interests when they spread into new areas, outcompete native species, and disrupt ecosystem services. If the spread is not controlled early, species can become well-established and increasingly difficult to manage. The National Park Service (NPS) Invasive Plant Management Teams (IPMTs) strive for an “early detection, rapid response” approach to reducing invasive species spread. Management teams can better prioritize their work with the help of species distribution models (SDMs), which map habitat suitability by combining species occurrences with environmental predictor variables. Scarce invaded range data for newly arrived invasive species presents a particular challenge for producing accurate models. To improve future modeling efforts, this project compared SDM methods using different spatial scales to model two plant species invasive to the Northeast US: the well-established Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and newer invasive species wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius). The team used NASA Earth observations and climate datasets to model occurrence data and predictor layers at a US-specific extent (90m2 spatial resolution) and global extent (1 km2 spatial resolution). Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provided data for US Normalized Difference Moisture Indices (NDMI), while global NDMI and topographic predictor layers were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting models indicated important predictor variables for each species and explored the benefits and tradeoffs of using global data to model habitat suitability for new-arrival invasive species.

Rebecca Ohman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Increasing Data Discovery and Re-Use: The Space Life Sciences Ontology

Two of the most important goals of the adoption of the FAIR principles are increasing the ability of agents to find and re-use research data. Achieving these goals for space life sciences research is even more pressing, given the relatively expensive and scarce nature of these data. We have reported in the past on the progress made by exemplar life sciences data systems towards implementing FAIR, showing gaps particularly in the “interoperability area” of the principles; the lack of common conceptual models for space life science research is one reason for this gap. There were few available resources that define, annotate, categorize or otherwise relate various kinds of metadata describing the acquisition, nature, and intent of investigational space life sciences data. To address this gap, NASA is working with the Open Biological and Biomedical Ontology Foundry (https://obofoundry.org/) to develop the Space Life Science Ontology (SLSO) that is intended to support archival and other kinds of systems that operate using these data. The scope of the ontology includes concepts regarding those aspects of investigation design and execution specific or unique to space environments, such as types of specialized equipment, operating organizations, and documentation. The ontology is continually being developed and published to the life science community (https://github.com/nasa/LSDAO/); at the time of this publication, the SLSO newly and uniquely defines 30 types (classes), 90 properties, and 14 relations specific to space life sciences metadata. In addition, the SLSO reuses (imports) some 2,360 types (classes), 49 properties, and 393 relations from other ontologies that are relevant to these kinds of metadata. In addition to its role as a common conceptualization for space biomedical research activities, the SLSO can also be used to provide automated support for traditionally difficult and expensive activities such as data curation and cross-system data integration and analysis.

fair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Giovanni: Analyze, Compare, and Visualize 2000+ Earth Satellite and Model Variables Without Downloading Data and Software

Over vast oceans and remote continents, observations are often scarce and discontinuous. Satellite and model data play a critical role in research and applications. However, finding and accessing satellite and model data can be a daunting task for many, especially those outside the community. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA Science Mission Directorate Data Centers, provides Earth science data, information, and services to everyone such as researchers, application users, educators, and students. GES DISC archives and supports datasets applicable to several NASA Earth Science Focus Areas including Atmospheric Composition, Water & Energy Cycles, Carbon Cycle & Ecosystem, and Climate Variability. To facilitate data discovery, evaluation, and exploration, GES DISC has developed the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni), an online tool to analyze and visualize NASA remote sensing and model data without downloading data and software. As of this writing, over 2000 Earth satellite and model variables are available in Giovanni, including several wellknown NASA satellite missions (e.g., TRMM, GPM) and projects (e.g., MERRA-2, GPCP). Giovanni provides twenty-two plots that can be used to analyze, compare, and explore Earth data across different disciplines. Results can be shared with colleagues and downloaded for further analysis. Over the years, Giovanni has helped publish over 3000 referral papers. In this presentation, we will showcase key variables and plot types in Giovanni with examples. In particular, we will present several popular precipitation products from GPM and CPCP for evaluation and comparison.

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗

NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Investigation of the Influence of Microgravity on Transport Mechanisms in a Virtual Spaceflight Chamber: A Ground Based Program

In January 1992, the IML-1 FES experiment produced a set of classic experimental data and a 40 hour holographic "movie" of an ensemble of spheres in a fluid in microgravity. Because the data are in the form of holograms, we can study the three-dimensional distribution of particles with unprecedented detail by a variety of methods and for a wide variety of interests. The possession of the holographic movie is tantamount to having a complex experiment in space while working in an easily accessible laboratory on earth. The movie contains a vast amount of useful data, including residual g, g-jitter, convection and transport data, and particle fluid interaction data. The information content in the movie is so great that we have scarcely begun to tap into the data that is actually available in the more than 1000 holograms, each containing as much as 1000 megabytes of information. This ground-based project is exploiting this data and the concept of holographic storage of spaceflight data to provide an understanding of the effects of microgravity in materials processing. This paper provides the foundation, objectives, and status of the ground based project. The primary objective of this project is to advance the understanding of microgravity effects on crystal growth, convection in materials processing in the space environment, and complex transport phenomena at low Reynolds numbers. This objective is being achieved both experimentally and theoretically. Experiments are making use of existing holographic data recorded during the IML- I spaceflight. A parallel theoretical effort is providing the models for understanding the particle fields and their physics in the microgravity environment.

Trolinger, James D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The 630 nm MIG and the vertical neutral wind in the low latitude nighttime thermosphere

It is shown that large negative divergences (gradients) in the horizontal neutral wind in the equatorial thermosphere can support downward neutral winds in excess of 20 m/s. With attention to the meridional and vertical winds only, the pressure tendency equation is used to derive the expression U(sub z0) approximately equals (Partial derivative U(sub y)/Partial derivative y)H for the vertical wind U(sub z0) at the reference altitude for the pressure tendency equation; H is the atmospheric density scale height, and (Partial derivative U(sub y)/Partial derivative y) is the meridional wind gradient. The velocity gradient associated with the Meridional Intensity Gradient (MIG) of the O((sup 1)D) emission (630 nm) at low latitudes is used to estimate the vertical neutral wind in the MIG region. Velocity gradients derived from MIG data are about 0.5 (m/s)/km) or more, indicating that the MIG region may contain downward neutral winds in excess of 20 m/s. Though direct measurements of the vertical wind are scarce, Fabry-Perot interferometer data of the equatorial F-region above Natal, Brazil, showed downward winds of 30 m/s occurring during a strong meridional wind convergence in 1982. In-situ measurements with the WATS instrument on the DE-2 satellite also show large vertical neutral winds in the equatorial region.

Herrero, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Under-Constrained SEE Data: Implications for Estimating and Bounding SEE Rates

Raymond Ladbury↗

NASA NTRS2024

Under-Constrained SEE Data: Implications for Estimating and Bounding SEE Rates

Increasingly scarce SEE testing resources and rapid growth of the New Space sector have increased the prevalence of under-constrained SEE data. We develop Monte Carlo tools to assess implications for SEE rate estimation. We also show that Bayesian Priors based on large datasets of SEL susceptible parts can augment under-constrained data and improve bounds on SEL rates. The resulting Bayesian Priors are also useful for bounding system SEL risk.

Single-event effect↗