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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

The paper examines the relationship between the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle and the rate of rise during the ascending phase. It is found that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the second half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a correlation coefficient of r = 0.9 and a standard error Syx less than about 20.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Polarimetry and spectroscopy of a simple sunspot. I - On the magnetic field of a sunspot penumbra

We investigate the magnetic field structure of a medium sized sunspot using high resolution magnetograms and spectrograms and derive a relationship between the brightness of penumbral structures and the inclination of the magnetic field. The field inclination to the spot normal is larger in the dark structures than in the bright ones. We show that the field strength does not vary between dark and bright structures. At the inner penumbral boundary the field strength is 2000 Gauss and about 1000 Gauss at the outer penumbral edge. The line-of sight component of the material flow decreases rapidly within one arcsecond at the photospheric boundary of the spot.

Schmidt, W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of Clusters of Spots for the Interval of 1826-1868

Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, observed the Sun routinely from Desau, Germany during the interval of 1826-1869, averaging about 290 observing days per year. His yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (or, more correctly, the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) provided a simple means for describing the overt features of the sunspot cycle (i.e., the timing and relative strengths of cycle minimum and maximum). In 1848, Rudolf Wolf, a Swiss astronomer, having become aware of Schwabe's discovery, introduced his now familiar 'relative sunspot number' and established an international cadre of observers for monitoring the future behavior of the sunspot cycle and for reconstructing its past behavior (backwards in time to 1818, based on daily sunspot number estimates). While Wolf's reconstruction is complete (without gaps) only from 1849 (hence, the beginning of the modern era), the immediately preceding interval of 1818-1848 is incomplete, being based on an average of 260 observing days per year. In this investigation, Wolf's reconstructed record of annual sunspot number is compared against Schwabe's actual observing record of yearly counts of clusters of spots. The comparison suggests that Wolf may have misplaced (by about 1-2 yr) and underestimated (by about 16 units of sunspot number) the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. If true, then, cycle 7's ascent and descent durations should measure about 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively, the extremes of the distributions, and its maximum amplitude should measure about 96 instead of 70. This study also indicates that cycle 9's maximum amplitude is more reliably determined than cycle 8's and that both appear to be of comparable size (about 130 units of sunspot number) rather than being significantly different. Therefore, caution is urged against the indiscriminate use of the pre-modern era sunspot numbers in long-term studies of the sunspot cycle, since such use may lead to specious results.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of changes in the bolometric contrast of sunspots

Rapid changes in the total solar irradiance from space borne sensors are largely due to the passage of large sunspots across the disk. The effect of sunspots has often been modeled, using ground-based observations, by the use of a sunspot index such as the PSI, which assumes that all sunspots have the same thermal structure, which remains constant with time. In this paper, we report on photometric observations of sunspot groups that show significant differences in their mean bolometric contrast ( up to a factor of 2) and some of which show cooling or warming during their disk transit. Most of these changes can be ascribed to the changing ratio of umbral-to-prenumbral area. By measuring the mean temperature or bolometric contrast, together with corrected (hemispherical) areas, we can determine the instantaneous solar luminosity fluctuation and its diurnal change due to individual sunspot groups. These results show that the use of solar indices based on estimates of sunspot area and fixed sunspot contrast, such as the photometric sunspot index, do not remove all of the significant sunspot effects from satellite measurements of the total solar irradiance.

Chapman, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A comparative look at sunspot cycles

On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, spanning about 143 years, observations of sunspot number, smoothed sunspot number, and their temporal properties were used to compute means, standard deviations, ranges, and frequency of occurrence histograms for a number of sunspot cycle parameters. The resultant schematic sunspot cycle was contrasted with the mean sunspot cycle, obtained by averaging smoothed sunspot number as a function of time, tying all cycles (8 through 20) to their minimum occurence date. A relatively good approximation of the time variation of smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle is possible if sunspot cycles are regarded in terms of being either HIGH- or LOW-R(MAX) cycles or LONG- or SHORT-PERIOD cycles, especially the latter. Linear regression analyses were performed comparing late cycle parameters with early cycle parameters and solar cycle number. The early occurring cycle parameters can be used to estimate later occurring cycle parameters with relatively good success, based on cycle 21 as an example. The sunspot cycle record clearly shows that the trend for both R(MIN) and R(MAX) was toward decreasing value between cycles 8 through 14 and toward increasing value between cycles 14 through 20. Linear regression equations were also obtained for several measures of solar activity.

Wilson, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The cooling time scales of growing sunspots

The evolution of brightness and magnetic fields of growing sunspots is studied. Growing sunspots are found to be brighter (or less dark) than stable sunspots with the same magnetic field strength. From comparison of brightness and magnetic fields of a growing sunspot with those of stable sunspots, a dynamical parameter, the cooling time, of the growing sunspot is obtained. Ten growing sunspots are studied, and cooling times of 0.5 to 9 hr are found. Two models, the inhibition model and the Alfven wave model, give cooling times of about 0.05 hr, based on linear theory. The discrepancy between theory and observation may be due to the fact that the observed sunspots are in the nonlinear regime.

Chou, Dean-Yi↗
NASA NTRS1992

The theory of sunspots

This review covers the present state of our theoretical understanding of the physics of sunspots, along with the principal observational results that need to be explained. The topics covered range from the detailed structure of an individual sunspot to the broad connection between sunspots and the global solar magnetic field and the solar cycle. Our aim is to give a critical discussion of the theoretical ideas and models without presenting mathematical details. After outlining the historical development of the basic concepts associated with the magnetohydrodynamic theory of sunspots, we discuss recent treatments of their properties and structure, placing special emphasis on developments that have occurred within the last ten years. There have been remarkable improvements in the theoretical modelling of sunspots, led by new ideas and by more elaborate and realistic numerical simulations. At the same time, new observations have raised new theoretical questions or caused old ones to be reconsidered. In particular, measurements of oscillations in and around sunspots have opened up the new field of sunspot seismology, while recent high-resolution observations have forced us to rethink the structure of a sunspot penumbra.

Thomas, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Curious Behavior of Sunspot Umbrae in the First Half of the 20th Century

We examined the behavior of the areas of sunspot umbrae and penumbrae as reported daily by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) from May 1874 to December 1976. We calculated the ratio of the umbral area to the penumbral area (corrected for foreshortening as observed on the solar disc) for each sunspot group and for each day. We found: 1) that this ratio is about 0.2 on average, 2) that larger sunspot groups have slightly smaller ratios, 3) that there is a weak dependence on the phase of the solar cycle, 4) that there is no dependence on the latitude of the sunspot groups, and curiously 5) that for the smaller sunspot groups this ratio increased dramatically from about 1910 to 1930 and then returned to "normal" from 1930 to 1950. We examined other sunspot records to determine whether this behavior was an artifact of the RGO data and find evidence to indicate that the behavior was real. For the smaller sunspots (constituting the vast majority in both number and total area), the proportional size of the sunspot umbrae slowly increased by more than 50% and then returned to "normal" over this 40-year period.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2024

An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle

The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (S) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.

W. Dean Pesnell↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Hunter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The emission-line spectrum of a sunspot in the far-ultraviolet

The emission-line spectrum between 1200 and 1817 A from a sunspot in McMath region 12510 near the solar center is discussed. The spectrum was obtained by the normal-incidence spectrograph on Skylab. The principal results are: (1) the widths of emission lines originating in the chromosphere and lower transition region over the sunspot are much narrower than those previously reported for a polar coronal hole observed above the limb and a quiet chromospheric network observed near the solar center, indicating that the mass motions in the sunspot are less than in these other regions; (2) the sunspot spectrum, aside from the narrow widths of emission lines, is similar to spectra from the chromospheric network boundary. The intensities of lines in the sunspot are much enhanced relative to the network interior. From the full-width at half-maximum of the 1207-A Si III line, an optical depth at line center of 3.6 is deduced. Comparison with Parker's (1974) theory of sunspots shows that, if the enhancement of emission lines is due to enhanced transport of hydromagnetic waves generated in the sunspot convective zone, the mode of the waves is predominately Alfvenic.

Cheng, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sunspot dynamics - Gravitational draining - A cooling mechanism

The inward and downward flow of cooled material below sunspots is considered as a possible explanation of the stability, temperature and heat flow characteristics of sunspots. It is suggested that the flow of material inwards towards the center of the sunspot and then downwards towards the center of the sun through magnetic field conduits plays a role in the cooling of sunspots as it does in pores and magnetic knots, although due to the larger size of a sunspot the downflow takes place below the photosphere. In this view, the inflow and cooling of sunspots are sustained by the release of energy by the convecting gas, which then becomes cooler and denser as it returns to the heat source. The lack of a bright ring around sunspots is explained by the entrainment of upward moving heat flux by the downward moving gases. The temperature and density distributions predicted by the present model are shown to be satisfactory agreement with the empirical model of Van't Veer (Tandberg-Hansen, 1966).

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the maintenance of sunspots - An ion hurricane mechanism

Inward and downflow motions below the photosphere are considered to be a means of cooling and powering sunspot dynamics. Parker's superadiabatic effect is examined with attention focused on the energetics involved in ionization advection. The current analysis enhances Parker's mechanism by allowing for a 2 m/s downflow velocity at 2000 km depth to significantly reduce the photospheric irradiance to near umbral intensities. Similarities between sunspots and terrestrial hurricanes are noted, and it was found that ionization energy plays the same role in sunspots as latent energy plays in terrestrial weather systems. Based on the hypothesis that magnetic fields are important in organizing the motions on the sun, some understanding is provided of: (1) the instability which drives the cooling mechanism for sunspots, (2) the low latitude appearance of sunspots, (3) active region development with faculae following sunspot growth, (4) the role of the fluid in maintaining the magnetic field and the role of the field as a focal point for the fluid downflow, (5) the heating mechanism and structure of faculae, (6) energy balance in active regions, and (7) the behavior difference of pores and ephemeral active regions in relation to ordinary sunspots and active regions.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Using the Boundary Conditions of Sunspots as a Technique for Monitoring Solar Luminosity Variations

Recent satellite observations of the solar total irradiance confirm that it is varying at least on the 11 year time scale. Both blocking by sunspots and re-emission by faculae are components in this variation, but changes in the temperature of the solar photosphere may also be a contributing component. The satellite observations are as yet of insufficient length to answer the question of whether the sun is varying in luminosity on time scales longer than the 11 year sunspot cycle. Examined here are proxy methods of re-constructing these longer term luminosity variations, with an examination of secular changes in sunspot structure as one tool. Solar rotation changes and solar diameter changes are other parameters which may reveal information about solar luminosity variations. All three variables give remarkably similar conclusions. Over the last century the Earth's surface temperatures and the structure of sunspots have varied in a parallel manner. It is hypothesized that sunspots have varied in a convective medium which itself is varying over long time periods. These variations in convective strength alter the boundary conditions on sunspots and hence cause their structure to vary. Simultaneous with the variations in convective strength, the solar luminosity will vary as well. This, in turn, leads to changes in the climate of the Earth. Variations in solar diameter and solar rotation support the hypothesis that solar luminosity has varied over the last century and reached a peak around 1925 to 1935. This evidence is reviewed along with a possible model of why sunspot structure may provide a good proxy measure of solar luminosity changes.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗