SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2021

Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island

As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.

Garren Kalter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Work from Home Patterns across COVID-19 Waves: Implications for Future Transportation

The unprecedented rise in work from home (WFH) during COVID-19 poses challenges for the transportation engineers and planners with the travel demand forecasting. If WFH persists post-pandemic, it could influence traffic patterns, reducing peak-hour congestion. However, the evolution of WFH decisions across pandemic phases and varying socio-economic contexts remains unclear. This study examines factors influencing WFH choices using data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Findings reveal a decline in WFH participation from 60% during the first wave to 38% by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Geographically Weighted Regression model highlights the influence of socio-economic, household, and COVID-19-related variables, with notable spatial variability. Results show that younger individuals, females, and households with children are consistently more likely to WFH, while non-white and higher income individuals have an increasing likelihood for WFH as the pandemic progresses. These insights inform future transportation planning, emphasizing equity and decentralization strategies for post-pandemic commuting.

Patwary, Latif [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189174928)↗

NASA NTRS2022

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

NASA NTRS2020

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa

Background:Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd’s risk of RVFV infection.

Melinda K Rostel↗

NASA NTRS2014

The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols

Climate change is expected to alter a multitude of factors important to agricultural systems, including pests, diseases, weeds, extreme climate events, water resources, soil degradation, and socio-economic pressures. Changes to carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water (CTW) will be the primary drivers of change in crop growth and agricultural systems. Therefore, establishing the CTW-change sensitivity of crop yields is an urgent research need and warrants diverse methods of investigation. Crop models provide a biophysical, process-based tool to investigate crop responses across varying environmental conditions and farm management techniques, and have been applied in climate impact assessment by using a variety of methods (White et al., 2011, and references therein). However, there is a significant amount of divergence between various crop models' responses to CTW changes (Rotter et al., 2011). While the application of a site-based crop model is relatively simple, the coordination of such agricultural impact assessments on larger scales requires consistent and timely contributions from a large number of crop modelers, each time a new global climate model (GCM) scenario or downscaling technique is created. A coordinated, global effort to rapidly examine CTW sensitivity across multiple crops, crop models, and sites is needed to aid model development and enhance the assessment of climate impacts (Deser et al., 2012). To fulfill this need, the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) (Ruane et al., 2014) was initiated within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). The submitted results from C3MP Phase 1 (February 15, 2013-December 31, 2013) are currently being analyzed. This chapter serves to present and update the C3MP protocols, discuss the initial participation and general findings, comment on needed adjustments, and describe continued and future development. AgMIP aims to improve substantially the climate, crop, and economic simulation tools that are used to characterize the agricultural sector, to assess future world food security under changing climate conditions, and to enhance adaptation capacity both globally and regionally. To understand better and improve the modeled crop responses, AgMIP has conducted detailed crop model intercomparisons at closely observed field sites for wheat (Asseng et al., 2013), rice (Li et al., in review), maize (Bassu et al., 2014), and sugarcane (Singels et al., 2013). A coordinated modeling exercise was one of the original motivations for AgMIP, and C3MP provides rapid estimation of crop responses to CO2, water, and temperature (CTW) changes, adding dimension and insight into the crop model intercomparisons, while facilitating interactions within the global community of modelers. C3MP also contributes a fast-track, multi-model climate sensitivity assessment for the AgMIP climate and crop modeling teams on Research Track 2 (Fig. 1), which seeks to understand the impact of projected climatic changes on crop production and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 2013; Ruane et al., 2014).

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identifying factors controlling blocking frequency and dynamics is therefore essential for improving its simulation. Here, using a cloud-locking experiment, we show that cloud radiative effects (CREs) significantly increase the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking. CREs enhance upstream diabatic source of wave activity, both directly through longwave heating and indirectly through their feedback on latent heating, with the latter playing the dominant role. The resulting increase in the upstream diabatic source feeds into local wave activity downstream and promotes blocking formation. Qualitatively similar results are shown by multi-model experiments with radiatively inactive clouds to longwave radiation, albeit with a larger impact from mean-state changes. The results underscore the necessity of accurately representing cloud-radiation interactions in weather and climate models for improved prediction of blocking events.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

IEA Wind TCP Task 49: Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays

This report, prepared within Work package 1 of IEA Wind Task 49, presents reference site conditions for floating wind arrays to serve as a design basis for the techno-economic design of reference floating wind arrays. Data of the reference sites presented here are publicly available in an open database and thus support fast development and comparable design of floating wind arrays for various relevant conditions. The development of these reference sites drew on existing open access datasets and ongoing research projects of task participants. Six classes were identified that describe relevant key conditions for the design and development of floating wind arrays: met-ocean conditions, seabed conditions, coastal infrastructure, environmental impact, socio-economic impact, as well as regulations and permissions. The reference sites for the techno-economic design of floating wind arrays are based on a concept with building blocks to synthesize purpose-built site representations. In each of the identified classes with influencing design factors, building blocks are used to describe the characteristic properties and their spread. However, the latter three classes (i.e., environmental impact, socio-economic impact, regulations and permissions) are not included in the reference site conditions due to limited knowledge and lack of reliable criteria to quantify their impact on the techno-economic design in numeric parameters. Building blocks with key parameters for the techno-economic design of floating wind arrays are provided for met-ocean conditions, seabed conditions, and coastal infrastructure. For met-ocean conditions, multiple sites were selected for detailed analysis that represent a range of conditions across the pipeline of floating wind projects. Wind conditions and sea states are separated, and each location considers both the severity of wind and waves e.g. one site may have a moderate wave condition but severe wind condition. From this pipeline, eleven representative sites were selected where both site-specific analysis was available within the consortium, and where they represent different parts of the global pipeline. The eleven sites are: Hannibal (Italy), Humboldt (US), Ulsan (South Korea), MoneyPoint One (Ireland), Havbredey (UK), Fukushima (Japan), Utsira Nord (Norway), Gulf of Maine (US), Sud de la Bretagne II (France), Sorlige Nordsjo II (Norway). Each of these sites is summarized in the main report while more details about the studies and analyses behind the datasets are provided in the appendix. For seabed conditions, general information about the geotechnical parameters is provided and a baseline is established for the geotechnical parameters and stratigraphy that may be encountered on the sites. A set of six 'synthetic cases' is defined as building blocks providing the different parameters required for design under each case/soil condition. For the coastal infrastructure, general information about the main requirements is provided that a port should comply with to provide a satisfactory service during the construction of floating offshore wind arrays. Minimum port infrastructural requirements are provided for three types of ports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aging of Limestones and Silane–Siloxane-Based Protective Hydrophobics: The Impact of Heating–Cooling and Freeze–Thaw Cycles

Stones are traditionally used in construction and architectural applications as building elements due to their aesthetic and technical/structural performance. Like other environmental factors (rain, humidity, moisture, salt presence, biological activity, etc.), heating–cooling and freeze–thaw cycles significantly threaten the longevity of stone materials. Hence, considering the socio-economic and cultural value of stones, preventive actions such as hydrophobic coatings are applied to prevent or mitigate damage. The scope of this study is the performance assessment of limestones with different characteristics and the efficiency of various commercial silane/siloxane-based hydrophobic coatings when exposed to thermal variation and freeze–thaw. For that purpose, the standards EN 14066:2013 (determination of resistance to aging by thermal shock) and EN 12371:2010 (determination of frost resistance) were followed. Open porosity and static contact angles were estimated to assess the stone durability and water protection capabilities of the hydrophobics. Additionally, sound speed propagation velocity, quality of building material index, elastic modulus and flexural strength were measured to evaluate the variation of mechanical properties. Static contact angle revealed that the coatings maintained an efficient level of hydrophobicity even after thermal-shock and freeze–thaw weathering tests. The study also revealed a critical interaction between freeze–thaw cycles, hydrophobic coatings and structural integrity of the stones, mostly on more porous ones. When they are subjected to harsh environmental conditions, untreated porous limestones keep structural cohesion, allowing for the natural absorption and release of water during freezing and thawing. On the contrary, when limestones are treated, the hydrophobic coatings can moderately obstruct the water release due to the partial saturation of the porous framework by the products. It also probably resulted from the different mechanical behavior between the inner matrix and layer of stone coated, resulting in a premature breakout and mechanical damage of the stone.

Lisci, Carla (ORCID:000000032179130X)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

soaring↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2024

Detection and Socio-Economic Attribution of Groundwater Depletion in India

Groundwater is a critical resource for both consumption and food security in India, where groundwater management faces significant challenges due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Although several studies explored groundwater variability in India, few have focused on the socioeconomic attribution of these changes, utilizing data from industries, population and water demand. In this study, trends in groundwater storage were examined by leveraging the largest in situ dataset ever collated in India from ~27,000 groundwater wells, satellite-based terrestrial-water-storage estimates, and hydrological model simulations. Five major hotspots of groundwater depletion across India were identified using in situ measurements and previously untapped socioeconomic datasets to attribute these trends. Approximately 16% of Indian groundwater monitoring stations exhibited systematically decreasing trends in groundwater levels. These hotspots are primarily concentrated in the northern and northwestern parts of India as well as in the states of Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Kerala. The north/northwestern hotspots have experienced a staggering loss of ~6.46 × 10^10 m3 of water over the past two decades. The factors contributing to this depletion include population growth, rapid urbanization, proliferation of factories and the expansion of agriculture.

Gautam Kunwar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Chemistry Over Southern Africa

During the southern African dry season, regional haze from mixed industrial pollution, biomass burning aerosol and gases from domestic and grassland fires, and biogenic sources from plants and soils is worsened by a semi-permanent atmosphere gyre over the subcontinent. These factors were a driver of several major international field campaigns in the 1990s and early 2000s, and attracted many scientists to the region. Some researchers were interested in understanding fundamental processes governing chemistry of the atmosphere and interaction with climate change. Others found favorable conditions for evaluating satellite-derived measurements of atmospheric properties and a changing land surface. With that background in mind a workshop on atmospheric chemistry was held in South Africa. Sponsored by the International Commission for Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (ICACGP; http://www.icacgp.org/), the workshop received generous support from the South African power utility, Eskom, and the Climatology Research Group of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. The purpose of the workshop was to review some earlier findings as well as more recent findings on southern African climate vulnerability, chemical changes due to urbanization, land-use modification, and how these factors interact. Originally proposed by John Burrows, president of ICACGP, the workshop was the first ICACGP regional workshop to study the interaction of air pollution with global chemical and climate change. Organized locally by the University of the Witwatersrand, the workshop attracted more than 60 delegates from South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe, France, Germany, Canada, and the United States. More than 30 presentations were given, exploring both retrospective and prospective aspects of the science. In several talks, attention was focused on southern African chemistry, atmospheric pollution monitoring, and climate processes as they were studied in the field campaigns such as Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator-Atlantic (TRACE-A), Southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI-92), and Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000). Since those large international efforts, satellites have matured enough to enable quantifiable measurements of regional land surface, atmosphere, and ocean. In addition, global and chemical transport models have also been advanced to incorporate various data. Thus, the timing of the workshop was right for a full-fledged re-assessment of the chemistry, physics, and socio-economical impacts caused by pollution in the region, including a characterization of sources, deposition, and feedbacks with climate change.

Gatebe, Charles K.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Geospatial Cluster Analysis of the State, Duration and Severity of Drought Over Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998–2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

SPI↗

NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr−1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr−1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH4 yr−1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH4 yr−1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH4 yr−1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Diversifying the Materials and Technologies for the Future of Energy Storage

It is increasingly important to meet the growing global energy demand driven by factors such as population growth, electrification, and the rapid development of emerging economies, while minimizing the environmental harm caused by carbon dioxide emissions. Although fossil fuels remain an abundant and inexpensive energy source, there is a global consensus on the critical importance of addressing climate change and an increasing urgency to reduce carbon dioxide emissions without hindering economic growth. This challenge is particularly daunting due to the significant transformations required in electricity generation systems, transportation, and industrial processes. A significant portion of our energy still comes from burning fossil fuels, which poses harmful effects on the environment. Transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar and wind is essential, as these sources provide a low-carbon pathway for power generation and have become increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels. However, they face the inherent challenge of intermittency. Thus, energy storage systems (ESS) are essential not only to address this issue but also to accommodate the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are still the predominant ESS used for these applications; however, they suffer from issues related to scarce and harmful resources, safety, and socio-economic impacts. This underscores the need for alternative energy storage systems beyond LIBs. Here, in this review, we discuss the diversification, repurposing, and recycling of ESS to meet the projected energy demand while minimizing environmental harm.

batteries↗