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At least 37 records · Page 2

Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Abstract Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships

The United States’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals, along with targets set by the International Maritime Organization, create an opportunity for battery electric shipping. In this study, we model life-cycle costs and GHG emissions from shipping electrification, leveraging ship activity datasets from across the United States in 2021. We estimate that retrofitting 6,323 domestic ships under 1,000 gross tonnage to battery electric vessels would reduce US domestic shipping GHG emissions by up to 73% by 2035 from 2022 levels. By 2035, electrifying up to 85% of these ships could become cost effective versus internal combustion engine ships if they cover 99% of annual trips and charge from a deeply decarbonized grid. We find that charging demands from electrifying these ships could be concentrated at just 20 of 150 major ports nationwide. This study demonstrates that retrofitting to battery electric vessels has economic potential and could significantly accelerate GHG emission reductions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An approach to high speed ship ride quality simulation

The high speeds attained by certain advanced surface ships result in a spectrum of motion which is higher in frequency than that of conventional ships. This fact along with the inclusion of advanced ride control features in the design of these ships resulted in an increased awareness of the need for ride criteria. Such criteria can be developed using data from actual ship operations in varied sea states or from clinical laboratory experiments. A third approach is to simulate ship conditions using measured or calculated ship motion data. Recent simulations have used data derived from a math model of Surface Effect Ship (SES) motion. The model in turn is based on equations of motion which have been refined with data from scale models and SES of up to 101 600-kg (100-ton) displacement. Employment of broad band motion emphasizes the use of the simulators as a design tool to evaluate a given ship configuration in several operational situations and also serves to provide data as to the overall effect of a given motion on crew performance and physiological status.

Malone, W. L.↗

Emissions of Trace Gases and Particles from Two Ships in the Southern Atlantic Ocean

Measurements were made of the emissions of particles and gases from two diesel-powered ships in the southern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Namibia. The measurements are used to derive emission factors from ships of three species not reported previously, namely, black carbon, accumulation-mode particles, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as for carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), non-methane hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and condensation nuclei. The effects of fuel grade and engine power on ship emissions are discussed. The emission factors are combined with fuel usage data to obtain estimates of global annual emissions of various particles and gases from ocean-going ships. Global emissions of black carbon, accumulation- mode particles, and CCN from ocean-going ships are estimated to be 19-26 Gg yr(sup -1), (4.4-6.1) x 10(exp 26) particles yr(sup -1), and (1.0-1.5) x l0(exp 26) particles yr(sup -1), respectively. Black carbon emissions from ocean-going ships are approximately 0.2% of total anthropogenic emissions. Emissions of NOx and SO2 from ocean-going ships are approximately 10-14% and approximately 3-4%, respectively, of the total emissions of these species from the burning of fossil fuels, and approximately 40% and approximately 70%, respectively, of the total emissions of these species from the burning of biomass. Global annual emissions of CO and CH4 from ocean-going ships are approximately 2% and approximately 2-5%, respectively, of natural oceanic emissions of these species.

Sinha, Parikhit↗

The future of ship engines: Renewable fuels and enabling technologies for decarbonization

Shipping is one of the most efficient transportation modes for moving freight globally. International regulations concerning decarbonization and emission reduction goals drive rapid innovations to meet the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets. The internal combustion engines used for marine vessels are among the most efficient energy conversion systems. Internal combustion engines dominate the propulsion system architectures for marine shipping, and current marine engines will continue to serve for several decades. However, to meet the aggressive goals of low-carbon-intensity shipping, there is an impetus for further efficiency improvement and achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. These factors drive the advancements in engine technologies, low-carbon fuels and fueling infrastructure, and emissions control systems. This editorial presents a perspective on the future of ship engines and the role of low-life cycle-carbon-fuels in decarbonizing the marine shipping sector. A selection of zero-carbon, net-zero carbon, and low-lifecycle-carbon-fuels are reviewed. This work focuses on the opportunities and challenges of displacing distillate fossil fuels for decarbonizing marine shipping. In conclusion, enabling technologies such as next-generation air handling, fuel injection systems, and advanced combustion modes are discussed in the context of their role in the future of low-CO 2 intensity shipping.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Thermal evaluation of alternative shipping cask for irradiated experiments

Results of a thermal evaluation are provided for a new shipping cask under consideration for transporting irradiated experiments between the test reactor and post-irradiation examination (PIE) facilities. Most of the experiments will be irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), then later shipped to the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) located at the Materials and Fuels Complex for PIE. To date, the General Electric (GE)-2000 cask has been used to transport experiment payloads between these facilities. However, the availability of the GE-2000 cask to support future experiment shipping is uncertain. In addition, the internal cavity of the GE-2000 cask is too short to accommodate shipping the larger payloads. Therefore, an alternate shipping capability is being pursued. The Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, Research Reactor (BRR) cask has been determined to be the best alternative to the GE-2000 cask. An evaluation of the thermal performance of the BRR cask is necessary before proceeding with fabrication of the newly designed cask hardware and the development of handling, shipping and transport procedures. This paper presents the results of the thermal evaluation of the BRR cask loaded with a representative set of fueled and non-fueled payloads. When analyzed with identical payloads, experiment temperatures were found to be lower with the BRR cask than with the GE-2000 cask. Furthermore, from a thermal standpoint, the BRR cask was found to be a suitable alternate to the GE-2000 cask for shipping irradiated experiment payloads.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Image masks of global ship tracks for NASA MODIS data products

Ship tracks, long thin artificial cloud features formed from the pollutants in ship exhaust, are satellite-observable examples of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) that can lead to increased cloud albedo and thus increased solar reflectivity, phenomena of interest in solar radiation management. In addition to ship tracks being of interest to meteorologists and policy makers, their observed cloud perturbations provide benchmark evidence of ACI that remain poorly captured by climate models. To broadly analyze the effects of ship tracks, high-resolution satellite imagery data highlighting their presence are required. To support this, we provide a hand labelled dataset to serve as a benchmark for a variety of subsequent analyses. Established from a previous dataset that identified ship track presence using NASA’s MODIS Aqua satellite imager, our first-of-its-kind dataset is comprised of image masks: capturing full ship track regions, including their contours, emission points and dispersive patterns. In total, 300 images, or around 2,500 masked ship tracks, observed under varying conditions are provided, and may facilitate training of machine learning algorithms to automate extraction.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Ship-to-grid integration: Environmental mitigation and critical infrastructure resilience

The United States and European Union have an increasing number of projects that are engaging end-use devices for improved grid capabilities. Areas such as building-to-grid and vehicle-to-grid are simple examples of these increasing capabilities. In this paper, we present an innovative concept study for a ship-to-grid integration. The goal of this study is to simulate a two-way power flow between ship(s) and the grid with GridLAB-D for the port of Kyllini in Greece, where a ship-to-shore interconnection was recently implemented. Extending this further, we explore: (a) the ability of ships to meet their load demand needs, while at berth, by being supplied with energy from the electric grid and thus powering off their diesel engines; and (b) the ability of ships to provide power to critical loads. As a result, the ship-to-grid integration helps (a) mitigate environmental pollutants from the ships’ diesel engines and (b) provide resilience to areas affected by natural disasters.

Vlachokostas, Efthimios Alexandros↗

Automatic detection of ship-induced cloud features in satellite imagery

Ships crossing the ocean are known to produce long, curvilinear features called ship tracks visible in satellite imagery via the Twomey effect; however, there has been little exploitation of satellite imagery for broad atmospheric studies or global monitoring of ship emissions due to the difficulty of automated ship track detection. Prior studies are either proof-of-concept, qualitatively assessed, or restricted to a certain time of day. We propose a statistical method for the automated identification of ship tracks and demonstrate using GOES-West ABI data. We first present a human-assisted segmentation method, which we use to generate a ground truth data set of 529 annotated ship tracks in GOES-West ABI products. We then describe a two-stage automated approach comprising a detection stage to generate ship track proposals and a classification stage to reduce false positives. For detection, we present a novel pipeline based around a z-score filtering technique, and for classification, we demonstrate several classifiers from literature. In a final experiment, we quantitatively tune the detection parameters and train the classifier using the ground truth dataset, then test on a sequestered set of images; the detect-then-classify system had an overall Pd of 0.68 and 0.80 for daytime and nighttime data, respectively, and the classifier reduced false positive detections by 67% and 75%.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Direct and remote sensing observations of the effects of ships on clouds

Under certain conditions ships can affect the structure of shallow overlying layer clouds. It has been suggested that this is due to particles emitted from the ships, which increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the air, which, in turn, increases the concentrations of cloud droplets and reduces the average size of the droplets. Two ship track signatures in stratus clouds were observed simultaneously from a satellite and from an aircraft. The airborne measurements showed that in the ship tracks the droplet sizes and concentrations, as well as the total concentrations of particles, were substantially different from those in adjacent clouds. Furthermore, in-situ solar radiation measurements showed a significant enhancement in the upwelling radiance within the ship tracks at visible wavelengths and a significant reduction in radiance at 2.2 micrometers. Remote sensing measurements from the NOAA-10 satellite showed the effects of these differences in cloud structure as an enhancement in cloud reflectivity at 0.63 and 3.7 micrometers. These observations support the contention that ship track signatures in clouds are produced primarily by particles generated by ships.

Radke, Lawrence F.↗

Examples of, reasons for, and consequences of the poor quality of wind data from ships for the marine boundary layer - Implications for remote sensing

Wind reports by data buoys are used to demonstrate that these reports have in the past provided useful values for the synoptic scale winds and that at present these reports provide very reliable value for the synoptic scale winds. Past studies of wind reports by ships have revealed that the data are of poor quality, but the causes for this poor quality are not identified. Examples of the poor quality of wind data from ships are obtained by comparing ship reports with buoy reports and comparing reports of different kinds of ships with each other. These comparisons identify many different reasons for the poor quality of wind data from ships. Suggestions are made for improving the quality of ship data. The consequences of the poor quality of ship winds are described in terms of the effects on weather and wave forecasts. The implications for remotely sensed winds are discussed.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

Designing Flexibility into the Authorized Radioactive Contents of the 9982 Shipping Package

The 9982 radioactive material shipping package, or the 9982, differs from the others by allowing a multitude of radionuclides instead of a single defined set. While allowing flexibility, this requires more justification on why these contents would be worthwhile and why they would not cause various safety hazards when shipped together. The latter was covered through mass limit calculations, and the potential uses for the package are shown through comparison with historical shipments. Here, the mass limits were already calculated[1] and used to show three example shipments are suitable for the 9982 as well. Plutonium stored in 3013 containers[2], training sources shipped in 9977 packages[3], and americium standards shipped in 9978 packages[4] were all analyzed. The mass of each radionuclide and the corresponding mass limit were used to first determine if the listed content could be shipped. If so, the maximum allowed mass of such contents is also calculated in order to see if the 200-gram fissile limit for the 9982 would be violated if additional material was packed. The sum-of-the-fractions method produces contents that do not violate the mass limits or exceed the 200-gram fissile limit. These sets also serve as realistic examples of what may be shipped in the 9982. Well-founded example contents will help the approval of the package by showing its compatibility with previously shipped material. Unfounded hypothetical contents would not show the usefulness of having a wide variety of allowed radionuclides. More contents may be developed in order to incorporate other radionuclides that were not present in these three examples. The light elements will also need to be evaluated due to their exclusion currently preventing some materials from being allowed in the 9982.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Designing Flexibility into the Authorized Radioactive Contents of the 9982 Shipping Package

The 9982 radioactive material package is being designed to safely transport small gram quantities of radioactive material within the United States. Typically, such shipping packages are designed to ship only a single radioactive material content within the U.S., which greatly limits the type of radioactive material allowed for shipment. The 9982’s content, however, is designed around bounding limits for numerous radionuclides, which will allow many more content variations to be shipped in a single package compared to other package designs. Here, contents from 3013, 9977, and 9978 packages are analyzed to determine if they are qualified for shipment in the 9982 using a sum-of-the-fractions methodology to see if the sum of the ratios of the masses of the radionuclides over the mass limits exceeds a value of one (1). Since all three of the example contents meet satisfy this method, the maximum content that could be shipped in a 9982 was determined. For the 3013 package, up to between 199.96 grams and 200 grams of a plutonium mixture could be shipped depending on the weight percentages of the isotopes. The 9977 material resulted in a 174-gram content that satisfies the summations for either metal or oxide form and regardless of whether a shielding pig is present or not. Lastly, the 9978 materials, two different americium standards, have a maximum content mass of 200 grams regardless of whether the americium-241 and americium-243 are shipped together or separately. These three applications of the 9982 exemplify the use for a package with multiple approved contents since the functions of three separate packages are fulfilled by one new package, reducing the need for separate operational procedures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Direct and remote sensing observations of the effects of ships on clouds

Under certain conditions ships can affect the structure of shallow layer clouds. Simultaneous observations of two ship track signatures in stratus clouds from a satellite and in situ from an aircraft show that in the ship tracks the droplet sizes were reduced and total concentrations of both droplets and particles were substantially increased from those in adjacent clouds. In situ measurements of the upwelling radiance within the ship tracks was significantly enhanced at visible wavelengths, whereas radiance at 2.2 micrometers was significantly reduced. Cloud reflectivity along the tracks was enhanced at 0.63 and 3.7 micrometers. These observations support the contention that ship track signatures in clouds are produced primarily by particles emitted from ships.

Radke, Lawrence F.↗

The superconducting MHD-propelled ship YAMATO-1

In 1985 the Ship & Ocean Foundation (SOF) created a committee under the chairmanship of Mr. Yohei Sasakawa, Former President of the Ship & Ocean Foundation, and began researches into superconducting magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ship propulsion. In 1989 SOF set to construction of a experimental ship on the basis of theoretical and experimental researches pursued until then. The experimental ship named YAMATO-1 became the world's first superconducting MHD-propelled ship on her trial runs in June 1992. This paper describes the outline of the YAMATO-1 and sea trial test results.

Sasakawa, Yohei↗

Arctic shipping under global change: A case study of offshore oil exports

We explore impacts of sea ice thinning and evolutions in the energy sector on future use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) versus the Suez Canal Route (SCR), using a case study of shipping oil extracted from the offshore Russian Arctic to China. We combine an integrated human-Earth system model with a shipping cost model to incorporate impacts on both oil production and shipping costs under internally consistent scenarios. We find that the NSR could become cost-competitive with the SCR as sea ice thickness declines, especially in an RCP8.5 scenario, due to decreasing fuel and icebreaker escort costs. In a global energy evolution scenario consistent with RCP2.6, high emissions costs on the longer SCR may outweigh the costs associated with thicker sea ice on the NSR. Our novel framework provides integrated projections of NSR shipping traffic driven by a specific commodity likely to be shipped through the Arctic.

Arctic↗

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO x emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗