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DOE OSTI2024

Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion

Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

Abolt, C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-independent description of B → D π ℓ ν decays

We introduce a new parametrization of B → D π ℓ ν form factors using a partial-wave expansion and derive bounds on the series coefficients using analyticity and unitarity. This is the first generalization of the model-independent formalism developed by Boyd, Grinstein, and Lebed for B → D ℓ ν to semileptonic decays with multihadron final states, and enables data-driven form-factor determinations with robust, systematically improvable uncertainties. Using this formalism, we extract the form-factor parameters for B → D 2 * ( → D π ) ℓ ν decays in a model-independent way from fits of data from the Belle Experiment. We find that the semileptonic data are compatible with the presence of two poles in the D π S-wave channel, which is the scenario preferred by nonleptonic decays and unitarized chiral perturbation theory. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and Application of High-Fidelity Models for Heterogeneous CO2 Frost Formation

Carbon America has developed a cryogenic carbon capture technology ("FrostCC") that separates CO2 from point source emissions by solidifying it at cold temperatures through preferential desublimation. Cooling is achieved through a series of interlinked compression, heat exchange, and expansion operations. In the current system, frosting of CO2 happens in heat exchangers, followed by CO2 recovery in a separate extraction step. In this work, multiphysics computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are developed and validated for compressible and low Mach flows to simulate the formation of solid CO2 in flue gas flowing in a heat exchanger geometry. The models track the mass transfer rate of CO2 from gas phase to solid phase, heat released from desublimation, and the evolution of the solid CO2 layer. Simulations are used to answer scientific questions related to the angle of heat exchanger pipes, where buoyancy effects from flow velocity and pipe orientation influence CO2 frosting. Results show that upwardly angled pipes produce notably different flow structures compared to horizontal or vertical configurations, and that carbon capture efficiency correlates with buoyancy effects for pipe angles within plus or minus 23 degrees of horizontal.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical and Light Activation of Materials for Chemical Production

Abstract Mechanical expansion and contraction of pores within photosynthetic organisms regulate a series of processes that are necessary to manage light absorption, control gas exchange, and regulate water loss. These pores, known as stoma, allow the plant to maximize photosynthetic output depending on environmental conditions such as light intensity, humidity, and temperature by actively changing the size of the stomal opening. Despite advances in artificial photosynthetic systems, little is known about the effect of such mechanical actuation in synthetic materials where chemical reactions occur. It is reported here on a hybrid hydrogel that combines light‐activated supramolecular polymers for superoxide production with thermal mechanical actuation of a covalent polymer. Superoxide production is important in organic synthesis and environmental remediation, and is a potential precursor to hydrogen peroxide liquid fuel. It is shown that the closing of pores in the hybrid hydrogel results in a substantial decrease in photocatalysis, but cycles of swollen and contracted states enhance photocatalysis. The observations motivate the development of biomimetic photosynthetic materials that integrate large scale motion and chemical reactions.

Đorđević, Luka [Department of Chemical Sciences Un↗

DOE OSTI2026

Annual Summary Report (FY 2025) Performance Assessment for the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility

Beginning in 1996, the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) started accepting low-level radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes that were generated during cleanup activities at the Hanford Site. ERDF is composed of a series of cells or disposal areas and can accommodate future design expansions as needed. Currently, there are eight cells and two supercells in ERDF. Each supercell is the equivalent of two cells. During this reporting period, fiscal year (FY) 2025, extending from October 1, 2024, through September 30, 2025, approximately 50,653 metric tons (55,835 U.S. tons) of waste was disposed at ERDF. From ERDF inception through September 30, 2025, approximately 17.3 million metric tons (19.1 million U.S. tons) of waste has been disposed at ERDF, which equates to consumption of approximately 91.0% of the currently constructed disposal volume. According to the design of ERDF, the facility has the ability to be expanded as needed. In 2023, the Department of Energy approved the construction of supercell 11 to provide additional disposal capacity to meet the cleanup mission at the Hanford Site. The construction of supercell 11 began in FY 2025, and it is expected to take up to two years. Construction of the new cell will not affect ongoing waste disposal activities at ERDF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

A convergent genus expansion for the plateau

We conjecture a formula for the spectral form factor of a double-scaled matrix integral in the limit of large time, large density of states, and fixed temperature. The formula has a genus expansion with a nonzero radius of convergence. To understand the origin of this series, we compare to the semiclassical theory of “encounters” in periodic orbits. In Jackiw-Teitelboim (JT) gravity, encounters correspond to portions of the moduli space integral that mutually cancel (in the orientable case) but individually grow at low energies. At genus one we show how the full moduli space integral resolves the low energy region and gives a finite nonzero answer.

2D Gravity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-Wideband Communications: Interference Challenges and Solutions

The idea of ultra-wideband (UWB) communications for short ranges (up to a few tens of meters) has been around for nearly three decades. However, despite significant efforts by the industry, UWB deployment has not yet reached its predicted potential. This article, thus, seeks to rectify this situation by providing a practical examination of UWB interference conditions. Through a spectrum survey of today's wireless environments, we explore the interference that UWB devices may face from a perspective of outage probability in both high- and low-rate configurations. We find that by suppressing interference, the outage probability can be reduced by one or more orders of magnitude. In the non-line-of-sight channels, in particular, we find that both interference suppression and bandwidth expansion are required to support the minimum data rates suggested in the IEEE802.15.4 series of standards. Here, we connect these findings to a recently proposed UWB signaling method based on filter banks and show this method fulfills the above requirements for implementing effective UWB systems.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observation of Joule–Thomson photon-gas expansion

In recent years, a self-consistent optical thermodynamic framework has emerged that offers a systematic methodology to understand, harness and exploit the complex collective dynamics of multimode nonlinear systems. These developments now allow consideration of a series of longstanding problems in optics, including the prospect of funnelling the entire power flowing in a multimode system into its ground state, for which no methodology currently exists. Here, we demonstrate an all-optical Joule-Thomson expansion process mediated by photon-photon interactions whereby the temperature of the optical gas drops abruptly to zero. Our experiments in various configurations of coupled multicore nonlinear waveguide arrangements illustrate how light undergoing expansion-induced cooling can be channelled from arbitrary input states into the fundamental mode with near-unity efficiency. We show that the stability of the post-expansion state is ensured through an irreversible process of energy conversion. The all-optical thermodynamic phenomena explored in this study may enable innovative techniques where various uncorrelated but identical sources are merged into a unified spatially coherent state, offering a route for direct beam combining.

Kirsch, Marco S. (ORCID:0000000342798228)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - EV Profile Capture 2024

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project, the profile capture and analysis of production electric vehicles undergoing high power charging (HPC) is conducted over a wide range of conditions to explore variance and performance. Charge session parameters are collected from both the electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at a rate of 10Hz and entered into a time-series database for analysis. These charge profiles are captured under nominal and off-nominal conditions, exploring the impact of battery state of charge (SOC), battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management (SCM), and EVSE limitations. Nominal conditions are defined to be ideal conditions that should transfer the maximum allowable energy in the minimum possible amount of time. Nominal condition profiles are compared across EVs to characterize state-of-the-art EV charging performance against one another. Off-nominal condition profiles are compared against its nominal condition profile counterpart to highlight the variance across less desirable starting conditions within a single EV. This EV Profile Capture 2024 report stands as an update from the EV Profile Capture 2023 report to include the additional EV & EVSE assets tested and analyzed in 2024. The major updates within this report include the addition of three next-generation electric vehicles, added test cases, and further analysis. This expansion of analysis includes power profiles, power distribution, quantifying SOC, energy and range performance, EVSE limitation impacts, boost converter performance, etc. Additionally, NGP time-series data has been used as input towards three national laboratory-led grid modelling efforts: ANL’s IEEE-37 HIL model, INL’s Caldera model, and NREL’s EVI-X model. A summary of these platforms and how NGP has worked to improve their effectiveness has also been added to this years’ report.

Thurston, Sam↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fractal Scaling of Explosively Driven Product Gases

ABSTRACT Characterization of the interface between explosive product gases and ambient air in an explosion is a complicated task due to the turbulent mixing and inherently three‐dimensional expansion of the interface. This study aims to quantify the evolution of the interface as a temporally varying Hausdorff dimension. Two test series were conducted with Composition C‐4 charges with masses of 105 and 880 g. Imaging data were collected from the time of detonation until shock wave detachment using ultra‐high‐speed cameras. Gas cloud profiles were extracted using automated image processing algorithms, and the Hausdorff dimension of these two‐dimensional slices of the gas cloud was then estimated using boxcounting algorithms. When scaled with standard gas dynamic nondimensional scalings, the Hausdorff dimension of all explosive events appears to collapse towards a single curve. The fireball was initially nonfractal and began to develop fractal properties as the shock wave separated from the detonation products. Artificial perturbation of the charged surface had no detectable impact on the evolution of the Hausdorff dimension in the early development of the fireball outside of error, despite visible phenomenological differences in the early development of mixing on the fireball surface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Vehicle-to-Grid planning framework incorporating electric vehicle user equilibrium and distribution network flexibility enhancement

The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

In Situ Atmospheric Plume Thermometry via Carbon Monoxide Spectral Profile: Laboratory and Field Validation

For small molecules with large rotational constants, knowing the relative intensities of the ro-vibrational transitions can be used to determine the temperature within a gas plume. We demonstrate the use of carbon monoxide (CO) as an in situ spectroscopic probe of gas plume temperature by application of both laboratory and standoff Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to monitor the CO spectral response at different temperatures. Here, the measured CO rotational contours were analyzed using a simple Boltzmann model to deduce the population distribution of the J-levels, from which the in-plume temperature is deduced. The method was vetted by comparing deduced temperatures in both static laboratory measurements of known temperatures, as well as field measurements using a simulated smokestack release. For the smokestack experiments, spectroscopically deduced temperatures were compared to readings from a series of thermocouples placed at strategically sampled distances along the plume trajectory. Both the spectroscopically-derived and thermocouple-measured temperatures revealed an expansion-induced (mixing) rapid cooling of the plume, with the infrared thermometry values displaying greater temperature values which are believed to better represent the actual plume temperatures.

Analysis of rotational structure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elliptic multipoles and the modeling of narrow-gap bend magnets in accelerators

We highlight the virtues of 2D elliptic-multipole field expansions in modeling the magnetic fields of narrow-aperture, straight-axis bending magnets with parallel faces, addressing the limitations of the conventional circular multipole series when the beam-orbit sagitta exceeds the magnet's vertical half-gap. The elliptic multipoles provide a convenient way to represent the field in all aspects of the magnet development (design, particle-tracking simulations, measurements). We propose a numerically robust method of data analysis to determine the elliptic (or circular) multipoles from stretched-wire measurements with the wire moving on an arbitrary path.

Venturini, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2025

Software Validation Work With The ZPPR-15 Data

The analysis activities for fast reactors involve using many different pieces of software that are relied upon for their predictive capabilities. For this software to be considered reliable, documented proof that the predictions of the software are accurate is required. In this manuscript, the validation work that covers some of the Argonne software used in fast reactor design activities is discussed and displayed. This validation work includes neutron and gamma flux distributions, reaction rate distributions, and reactivity worth. In an ideal world, a reactor development program would have access to a comprehensive set of experimental facilities to help inform the design aspects of the reactor itself. While thermal-hydraulics experiments, and to a limited degree mechanical experiments, can be carried out today for validation needs, neutronics related experimental facilities are rather impractical because of the lack of experimental facilities. Given the desired time table for construction of new reactors, the reconstitution or creation of new neutronic experimental facilities is untenable and thus those reactor development programs must rely upon any available experimental measurements that are qualitatively similar to the design. While a methodology has been proposed to assess the similarity between the past experimental measurements and the reactor itself, that aspect is beyond the scope of this manuscript. In this manuscript, the focus is entirely placed on the analysis results for a series of experiments carried out at the ZPPR facility in Idaho in the mid-1980s. In this regard, this manuscript only shows the validation of the stated neutronics software for specific loadings of the ZPPR reactor. Because of the fuel form, its proposed enrichment, and the material content of the reactor core, the ZPPR-15 experiments were identified as potential validation data for the reactor. The ZPPR-15 experiments were intended as mockups of a 330 MWe Integral Fast Reactor program which was a follow on program to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor. In the ZPPR-15 series of experiments, measurements of the neutron spectrum, control rod worth, sodium void worth, foil reaction rate distributions, Doppler worth of heated samples, gamma dose, and axial expansion worth were all carried out and published. In many cases, these reactivity coefficients are good candidates to validate the reactivity coefficient calculation scheme used by the analysis software and included in the safety analysis activities of fast reactor development projects today. This manuscript discusses the modeling methodology and accuracy of the calculated experimental results using the LANL software MCNP and the ANL software package ARC (Argonne Reactor Codes). As will be shown, for many of the experimental measurements, the two software packages are found to be good predictive analysis tools for those experiments. In other cases, problems with the analysis methodology or underlying cross section data are exposed which indicates where predictive analysis is not as reliable. Finally, in some of the measurements the conclusion is reached that the experimental measurement cannot be reproduced with the analysis software as it is simply too difficult.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Software Validation Work With The ZPPR-15 Data

Aliberti, Gerardo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗