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Target & Propagation Models for the FINDER Radar

Finding persons still alive in piles of rubble following an earthquake, a severe storm, or other disaster is a difficult problem. JPL is currently developing a victim detection radar called FINDER (Finding Individuals in Emergency and Response). The subject of this paper is directed toward development of propagation & target models needed for simulation & testing of such a system. These models are both physical (real rubble piles) and numerical. Early results from the numerical modeling phase show spatial and temporal spreading characteristics when signals are passed through a randomly mixed rubble pile.

propagation↗

Measurement of Cohesion in Asteroid Regolith Materials

There is increasing evidence that a large fraction of asteroids, and even Phobos, have such low densities (<2 g/cu cm) that the are unlikely to be consolidated rocks in space.-Water is unlikely due to close orbits to the sun. Instead, many of these asteroids are thought to be made up of unconsolidated smaller particles of varying size referred to as rubble piles. Images of the asteroid Itokawa reinforce this hypothesis. What holds the rubble piles together? Gravitational forces alone are not strong enough to hold together rubble pile asteroids, at least not those that are rapidly spinning Van der Waals forces and or Electrostatic forces must therefore be responsible for holding them together. Previous work suggests that electrostatic forces, which are orders of magnitude stronger are far more likely. Charge build-up is a likely consequence of the interaction of airless bodies with the solar wind plasma, analogous to what has been proposed to occur on the moon. Objective: Experimentally measure cohesive forces relevant to those holding rubble pile asteroids together

meteorites↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

Impact histories inferred from exogenic boulders on asteroids Ryugu and Bennu

Rubble-pile asteroids, such as (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu, are formed as a result of catastrophic disruption of a parent body and re-accumulation of the fragments by self-gravity. Therefore, reaccumulated rubble piles could include mixtures of materials from both the parent body and its catastrophic impactor, as they did in the case of 2008 TC3 and the Almahata Sitta meteorites (Jenniskens et al. 2009). Indeed, six unusually bright, basaltic, meter-scale boulders were recently identified on Bennu’s dark surface (DellaGiustina et al. 2021), and their close spectral matches to the Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite (HED) meteorites and Vesta family members indicate that they originated from asteroid (4) Vesta. In parallel, bright exogenic anhydrous-silicate–rich materials were found on Ryugu (Tatsumi et al. 2021). The bright boulders on Ryugu are consistent with ordinary chondrite meteorites, based on their albedo and weak or even absent absorption band at 2 µm. These exogenous materials on the surfaces of rubble-pile asteroids could be a key to constraining their specific impact conditions and collisional evolution. In this study, we report further study of the visible spectrophotometry and morphology of exogenic boulders on Ryugu and Bennu using two multi-band cameras: the telescopic Optical Navigation Camera (ONC-T) onboard the Hayabusa2 spacecraft, and MapCam onboard the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft, respectively. For Ryugu, we first detected objects with peak reflectance brighter by a factor of >1.5 than the surrounding area. Tatsumi et al. (2021) found two spectral groups among the bright boulders: S-type with an absorption near 1 µm and C/X-type with a flat spectrum. That study found 6 S-types and 15 C/X-types, and in this work we additionally find one S-type and ~70 C/X-types. We found that S-type bright boulders follow two parallel trends consistent with space weathering of ordinary chondrites. Fragments from projectiles suggest that Ryugu may not have formed directly from the original parent body, i.e., it is from a second or higher generation of collisional descendants (Sugimoto et al. in revision). For Bennu, we directly surveyed absorption near 1 µm, which is indicative of anhydrous silicates. We propose 77 objects of exogenic origin including 6 boulders previously reported by DellaGiustina et al. (2021). We find that proposed exogenic objects follow two mixing trends with respect to the average spectrum of Bennu (Tatsumi and Popescu et al. submitted). One trend can be explained by mixing with HED as discussed in DellaGiustina et al. (2021), and the other trend can be explained by mixing with another, olivine-rich composition. Near-infrared spectra also support the possibility of multiple compositions among exogenic objects on Bennu. Thus, similar to Ryugu, Bennu could represent a second or higher generation. Using high-resolution images, we found that more than half of the exogenic objects that we identified on Bennu have breccia-like or inclusion-like morphologies. We do not observe a correlation between morphology and spectral shape. Direct comparison of reflectance spectra of exogenic object spectra between Ryugu and Bennu suggests a compositional difference. Furthermore, the number density of exogenic objects > 0.5 m on Bennu is ~40 times that on Ryugu (Tatsumi and Popescu et al. submitted). Bennu exhibits much more contamination from exogenic materials than Ryugu, which likely reflects differences in impact conditions, such as impact velocity and impactor size.

E. Tatsumi↗

Exogenic Basalt on Asteroid (101955) Bennu

When rubble-pile asteroid 2008 TC3 impacted Earth on October 7, 2008, the recovered rock fragments indicated that such asteroids can contain exogenic material. However, spacecraft missions to date have only observed exogenous contamination on large, monolithic asteroids that are impervious to collisional disruption. Here we report the presence of meter-scale exogenic boulders on the surface of near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu - the 0.5-km, rubble-pile target of the OSIRIS-REx mission which has been spectroscopically linked to the CM carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Hyperspectral data indicate that the exogenic boulders have the same distinctive pyroxene composition as the howardite-eucrite-diogenite (HED) meteorites that come from (4) Vesta, a 525-km diameter asteroid that has undergone differentiation and extensive igneous processing. Delivery scenarios include the infall of Vesta fragments directly onto Bennu or indirectly onto Bennu’s parent body, where the latter’s disruption created Bennu from a mixture of endogenous and exogenic debris. Our findings demonstrate that rubble-pile asteroids can preserve evidence of inter-asteroid mixing that took place at macroscopic scales well after planetesimal formation ended. Accordingly, the presence of HED-like material on the surface of Bennu provides previously unrecognized constraints on the collisional and dynamical evolution of the inner main belt.

Asteroids↗

Asteroid Cooling Rates Indicated by K-Feldspar Exsolution Textures in H4 Ordinary Chondrites

Undisturbed thermal metamorphism in ordinary chondrite (OC) asteroids, produced through the radioactive decay of 26Al, is expected to result in an onion-shell-like structure. In such a structure, the inner layers of the asteroid experience more extensive thermal metamorphism, as represented by higher petrologic type, than the exterior layers. Furthermore, cooling rates are expected to be slower for OCs of high petrologic type than those of low petrologic type. However, cooling rates determined using metallographic methods and pyroxene diffusion are inconsistent with onion-shell-style cooling and have resulted in new models. These models argue for the disruption of the asteroid after peak metamorphism followed by reaccretion into a rubble pile. Improved constraints on cooling rates would provide a better understanding of the timing and scale of disruptive events. Feldspar microtextures are another tool that can be used to determine asteroid cooling rates. In OC chondrules, plagioclase is present as either a primary phase, or a secondary phase forming from the crystallization of mesostasis glass through petrologic type 4, followed by chemical and textural equilibration. Potas-sium feldspar is observed in petrologic types 3.6-6, as either patches or lamellae exsolved from albite in a perthite texture, often near pores or fractures. Exsolution occurs most commonly, and most extensively, in petrologic type 4. Because the feldspar exsolution wavelength is related to the rate at which grains cooled from the solvus temperature, determined from the mineral’s bulk composition, the chondrite cooling rate can be measured from regions of exsolution. We have previously reported the perthite exsolution cooling rate of Avanhandava, an H4 chondrite, to be 1 °C per 1-4 months over a temperature interval of 765-670 °C. A peristerite exsolution texture was also present in the Na-rich lamellae for which we estimated a cooling rate of 1 °C in 103-104 years from 570-540 °C. Overall, the cooling rates determined from Avanhandava are consistent with pyroxene diffusion (fast cooling at high temperatures) and metallographic rates (slow cooling at low temperatures), hence with the rubble pile model of disruption and reaccretion. Here, we characterize feldspar microtextures in four additional H4 chondrites to test the consistency of feldspar cooling rates across a range of samples. We show that all H4s are similar and support rubble pile models.

Lewis, J. A.↗

Crater Population on Asteroid (101955) Bennu Indicates Impact Armouring and a Young Surface

The impactor-to-crater size scaling relationships that enable estimates of planetary surface ages rely on an accurate formulation of impactor–target physics. An armouring regime, specific to rubble-pile surfaces, has been proposed to occur when an impactor is comparable in diameter to a target surface particle (for example, a boulder). Armouring is proposed to reduce crater diameter, or prevent crater formation in the asteroid surface, at small crater diameters. Here, using measurements of 1,560 craters on the rubble-pile asteroid (101955) Bennu, we show that the boulder population controls a transition from crater formation to armouring at crater diameters ~2–3 m, below which crater formation in the bulk surface is increasingly rare. By combining estimates of impactor flux with the armouring scaling relationship, we find that Bennu’s crater retention age (surface age derived from crater abundance) spans from 1.6–2.2 Myr for craters less than a few meters to ~10–65 Myr for craters >100 m in diameter, reducing the maximum surface age by a factor of >15 relative to previous estimates. The range of crater retention ages, together with latitudinal variations in large-crater spatial density, indicate that ongoing resurfacing processes render the surface many times younger than the bulk asteroid.

Asteroids↗

Crater population on asteroid (101955) Bennu indicates impact armouring and a young surface

The impactor-to-crater size scaling relationships that enable estimates of planetary surface ages rely on an accurate formulation of impactor–target physics. An armouring regime, specific to rubble-pile surfaces, has been proposed to occur when an impactor is comparable in diameter to a target surface particle (for example, a boulder). Armouring is proposed to reduce crater diameter, or prevent crater formation in the asteroid surface, at small crater diameters. Here, using measurements of 1,560 craters on the rubble-pile asteroid (101955) Bennu, we show that the boulder population controls a transition from crater formation to armouring at crater diameters ~2–3m, below which crater formation in the bulk surface is increasingly rare. By combining estimates of impactor flux with the armouring scaling relationship, we find that Bennu’s crater retention age (surface age derived from crater abundance) spans from 1.6–2.2Myr for craters less than a few meters to ~10–65Myr for craters >100m in diameter, reducing the maximum surface age by a factor of >15 relative to previous estimates. The range of crater retention ages, together with latitudinal variations in large-crater spatial density, indicate that ongoing resurfacing processes render the surface many times younger than the bulk asteroid.

E. B. Bierhaus↗

A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

Asteroid↗

Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

Deposition↗

How fast can an asteroid spin

Many large asteroids are probably gravitationally bound 'rubble piles', which should approximate figures of hydrostatic equilibrium. The maximum angular velocity of such bodies is limited by formation of Jacobi ellipsoids or binary fission at about half the surface orbit frequency. The observed limiting rotation period of approximately 4 hr implies asteroidal densities of about 2-3 g/cu cm.

Weidenschilling, S. J.↗

Planetary geology: Impact processes on asteroids

The fundamental geological and geophysical properties of asteroids were studied by theoretical and simulation studies of their collisional evolution. Numerical simulations incorporating realistic physical models were developed to study the collisional evolution of hypothetical asteroid populations over the age of the solar system. Ideas and models are constrained by the observed distributions of sizes, shapes, and spin rates in the asteroid belt, by properties of Hirayama families, and by experimental studies of cratering and collisional phenomena. It is suggested that many asteroids are gravitationally-bound "rubble piles.' Those that rotate rapidly may have nonspherical quasi-equilibrium shapes, such as ellipsoids or binaries. Through comparison of models with astronomical data, physical properties of these asteroids (including bulk density) are determined, and physical processes that have operated in the solar system in primordial and subsequent epochs are studied.

Chapman, C. R.↗

Speckle interferometry applied to asteroids and other solar system objects

Speckle interferometry is a high angular resolution technique that allows study of resolved asteroids. By following the changing size, shape, and orientation of minor planets, and with a few general assumptions (e.g., geometric scattering, triaxial ellipsoid figures, no albedo features), it is possible to directly measure an asteroid's true dimensions and the direction of its spin axis in one or two nights. A particular subset of triaxial ellipsoid figures are equilibrium shapes, and would imply that some asteroids are thoroughly fractured. Such shapes if they exist among the asteroids would allow a determination of bulk density since there is a unique relation among spin period, size, shape, and density. The discovery of even a single rubble pile, (just as the finding of even one binary asteroid by speckle interferometric techniques) would drastically alter the notion of asteroids as small solid planets. The Pluto/Charon system was studied to aid in improving the orbital elements necessary to predict the eclipse/occultation season currently in progress. Four asteroids were reduced to their size, shape, and pole direction: 433 Eros, 532 Herculina, 511 Davida, and 2 Pallas.

Drummond, J. D.↗

Comet thermal modeling

The past year was one of tremendous activity because of the appearance of Halley's Comet. Observations of the comet were collected from a number of sources and compared with the detailed predictions of the comet thermal modeling program. Spacecraft observations of key physical parameters for cometary nucleus were incorporated into the thermal model and new cases run. These results have led to a much better understanding of physical processes on the nucleus and have pointed the way for further improvements to the modeling program. A model for the large-scale structure of cometary nuclei was proposed in which comets were envisioned as loosely bound agglomerations of smaller icy planetesimals, essentially a rubble pile of primordial dirty snowballs. In addition, a study of the physical history of comets was begun, concentrating on processes during formation and in the Oort cloud which would alter the volatile and nonvolatile materials in cometary nuclei from their pristine state before formation.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

Asteroid collisional history - Effects on sizes and spins

The effects of asteroid collisional history on sizes and spins of present-day objects are discussed. Collisional evolution studies indicate that collisions have altered the spin-rates of small bodies, but that the largest asteroids may have retained their primordial rotation rates. Most asteroids larger than 100 km diam have probably been shattered, but have gravitationally recaptured their fragments to form a rubble-pile structure. Large angular momentum asteroids appear to have Maclaurian spheroidal or Jacobi-ellipsoid-like shapes; some of them may have fissioned into binaries. An integrated size and spin collisional evolution model is presented, with two critical parameters: one which determines the spin rates for small fragments resulting from a shattering collision, and the other determines the fraction of impact angular momentum that is retained by the target.

Davis, Donald R.↗