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At least 37 records · Page 2

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Gee, Ken↗

Comparison of Response Surface and Kriging Models for Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

In this paper, we compare and contrast the use of second-order response surface models and kriging models for approximating non-random, deterministic computer analyses. After reviewing the response surface method for constructing polynomial approximations, kriging is presented as an alternative approximation method for the design and analysis of computer experiments. Both methods are applied to the multidisciplinary design of an aerospike nozzle which consists of a computational fluid dynamics model and a finite-element model. Error analysis of the response surface and kriging models is performed along with a graphical comparison of the approximations, and four optimization problems m formulated and solved using both sets of approximation models. The second-order response surface models and kriging models-using a constant underlying global model and a Gaussian correlation function-yield comparable results.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗

Optimal Design of Passive Flow Control for a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Using Design-of-Experiments

This research will investigate the use of Design-of-Experiments (DOE) in the development of an optimal passive flow control vane design for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset inlet in transonic flow. This inlet flow control is designed to minimize the engine fan-face distortion levels and first five Fourier harmonic half amplitudes while maximizing the inlet pressure recovery. Numerical simulations of the BLI inlet are computed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, developed at NASA. These simulations are used to generate the numerical experiments for the DOE response surface model. In this investigation, two DOE optimizations were performed using a D-Optimal Response Surface model. The first DOE optimization was performed using four design factors which were vane height and angles-of-attack for two groups of vanes. One group of vanes was placed at the bottom of the inlet and a second group symmetrically on the sides. The DOE design was performed for a BLI inlet with a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of 2 million, based on the length of the fan-face diameter, matching an experimental wind tunnel BLI inlet test. The first DOE optimization required a fifth order model having 173 numerical simulation experiments and was able to reduce the DC60 baseline distortion from 64% down to 4.4%, while holding the pressure recovery constant. A second DOE optimization was performed holding the vanes heights at a constant value from the first DOE optimization with the two vane angles-of-attack as design factors. This DOE only required a second order model fit with 15 numerical simulation experiments and reduced DC60 to 3.5% with small decreases in the fourth and fifth harmonic amplitudes. The second optimal vane design was tested at the NASA Langley 0.3- Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel in a BLI inlet experiment. The experimental results showed a 80% reduction of DPCP(sub avg), the circumferential distortion level at the engine fan-face.

Allan, Brian G.↗

Optimal Design of Passive Flow Control for a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Using Design-of-Experiments

This research will investigate the use of Design-of-Experiments (DOE) in the development of an optimal passive flow control vane design for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset inlet in transonic flow. This inlet flow control is designed to minimize the engine fan face distortion levels and first five Fourier harmonic half amplitudes while maximizing the inlet pressure recovery. Numerical simulations of the BLI inlet are computed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, developed at NASA. These simulations are used to generate the numerical experiments for the DOE response surface model. In this investigation, two DOE optimizations were performed using a D-Optimal Response Surface model. The first DOE optimization was performed using four design factors which were vane height and angles-of-attack for two groups of vanes. One group of vanes was placed at the bottom of the inlet and a second group symmetrically on the sides. The DOE design was performed for a BLI inlet with a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of 2 million, based on the length of the fan face diameter, matching an experimental wind tunnel BLI inlet test. The first DOE optimization required a fifth order model having 173 numerical simulation experiments and was able to reduce the DC60 baseline distortion from 64% down to 4.4%, while holding the pressure recovery constant. A second DOE optimization was performed holding the vanes heights at a constant value from the first DOE optimization with the two vane angles-of-attack as design factors. This DOE only required a second order model fit with 15 numerical simulation experiments and reduced DC60 to 3.5% with small decreases in the fourth and fifth harmonic amplitudes. The second optimal vane design was tested at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel in a BLI inlet experiment. The experimental results showed a 80% reduction of DPCPavg, the circumferential distortion level at the engine fan face.

Allan, Brian G.↗

High-moisture pelleting of corn stover using pilot- and commercial-scale systems: Impact of moisture content, L / D ratio and hammer mill screen size on pellet quality and energy consumption

Here, high-moisture pelleting of corn stover was tested in pilot- and commercial-scale systems. For the pilot-scale study, a 6.35 mm screen size hammer mill ground corn stover was reconditioned to moisture between 14 and 29.6% (w.b.), and 5, 7 and 9 L/D ratio pellet die were used. At 29% corn stover moisture content and L/D ratios of 5 and 9, the bulk density and durability of the pellets were ≤450 kg/m 3 and <90% and >540 kg/m 3 and >90%, respectively. Increasing the feedstock moisture and L/D ratio increased the pelleting energy. Increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density but not the durability. The response surface models adequately described the pelleting process (R 2 ≥ 0.88), and analysis of variance showed a strong interaction between the process variables and pellet properties. Commercial-scale testing of high-moisture pelleting using 6.35 mm ground corn stover bales in the moisture range 24–26% (w.b.) produced pellets with a density of >675 kg/m 3 and durability of >98%, whereas increasing the hammer mill screen size to 11.11 mm reduced the bulk density by about 100 kg/m 3 but not the durability. The energy consumption of the commercial-scale unit operations for the high-moisture pelleting process was in the range 98–124 kW h/ton, which is 64–72% less energy than conventional pelleting that requires energy about 350 kW h/ton for biomass drying from 30% (w.b.) to 10% (w.b.) moisture content before pelleting. Pellets produced using high-moisture pelleting met International Organization for Standardization and Pellets Fuel Institute international standards. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comparison of Resource Requirements for a Wind Tunnel Test Designed with Conventional vs. Modern Design of Experiments Methods

The factors that determine data volume requirements in a typical wind tunnel test are identified. It is suggested that productivity in wind tunnel testing can be enhanced by managing the inference error risk associated with evaluating residuals in a response surface modeling experiment. The relationship between minimum data volume requirements and the factors upon which they depend is described and certain simplifications to this relationship are realized when specific model adequacy criteria are adopted. The question of response model residual evaluation is treated and certain practical aspects of response surface modeling are considered, including inference subspace truncation. A wind tunnel test plan developed by using the Modern Design of Experiments illustrates the advantages of an early estimate of data volume requirements. Comparisons are made with a representative One Factor At a Time (OFAT) wind tunnel test matrix developed to evaluate a surface to air missile.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Case Studies for the Statistical Design of Experiments Applied to Powered Rotor Wind Tunnel Tests

The application of statistical Design of Experiments (DOE) to helicopter wind tunnel testing was explored during two powered rotor wind tunnel entries during the summers of 2012 and 2013. These tests were performed jointly by the U.S. Army Aviation Development Directorate Joint Research Program Office and NASA Rotary Wing Project Office, currently the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Project, at NASA Langley Research Center located in Hampton, Virginia. Both entries were conducted in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel with a small portion of the overall tests devoted to developing case studies of the DOE approach as it applies to powered rotor testing. A 16-47 times reduction in the number of data points required was estimated by comparing the DOE approach to conventional testing methods. The average error for the DOE surface response model for the OH-58F test was 0.95 percent and 4.06 percent for drag and download, respectively. The DOE surface response model of the Active Flow Control test captured the drag within 4.1 percent of measured data. The operational differences between the two testing approaches are identified, but did not prevent the safe operation of the powered rotor model throughout the DOE test matrices.

Overmeyer, Austin D.↗

Temperature Responses to Spectral Solar Variability on Decadal Time Scales

Two scenarios of spectral solar forcing, namely Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM)-based out-of-phase variations and conventional in-phase variations, are input to a time-dependent radiative-convective model (RCM), and to the GISS modelE. Both scenarios and models give maximum temperature responses in the upper stratosphere, decreasing to the surface. Upper stratospheric peak-to-peak responses to out-of-phase forcing are approx.0.6 K and approx.0.9 K in RCM and modelE, approx.5 times larger than responses to in-phase forcing. Stratospheric responses are in-phase with TSI and UV variations, and resemble HALOE observed 11-year temperature variations. For in-phase forcing, ocean mixed layer response lags surface air response by approx.2 years, and is approx.0.06 K compared to approx.0.14 K for atmosphere. For out-of-phase forcing, lags are similar, but surface responses are significantly smaller. For both scenarios, modelE surface responses are less than 0.1 K in the tropics, and display similar patterns over oceanic regions, but complex responses over land.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Development of a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that accurately predict vehicle temperatures. The study used an integrated thermal model of the International Space Station and the Orion Outer mold line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty external Orion temperatures were selected as the responses. A DOE case matrix of 110 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce an RSE for each of the temperature responses. The initial agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging, although many RSEs had large uncertainties on their predictions. Fourteen verification cases were developed to test the predictive powers of the RSEs. The verification showed mixed results with some RSE predicting temperatures matching the engineering data within the uncertainty bands, while others had very large errors. While this study to not irrefutably prove that the DOE/RSM approach can be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis, it does demonstrate that technique has the potential to predict temperatures. Additional work is needed to better identify the cases needed to produce the RSEs

Miller, Stephen W.↗

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion

A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that predict Orion vehicle temperatures within 10 F. The study used the Orion Outer Mold Line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty-three external Orion components were selected and their minimum and maximum temperatures captured over a period of two orbits. Thus, there are 46 responses. A DOE case matrix of 145 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce a fifth order RSE for each of the temperature responses. For the 145 cases in the DOE matrix, the agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging with 40 of the 46 RSEs predicting temperatures within the goal band. However, the verification cases showed most responses did not meet the 10 F goal. After reframing the focus of the study to better align the RSE development with the purposes of the model, a set of RSEs for both the minimum and maximum radiator temperatures was produced which predicted the engineering model output within +/-4 F. Therefore, with the correct application of the DOE/RSE methodology, RSEs can be developed that provide analysts a fast and easy way to screen large numbers of environments and assess proposed changes to the RSE factors.

Miller, Stephen W.↗

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Miller, StephenW.↗

Co-benefits of subnationally differentiated carbon pricing policies in China: Alleviation of heavy PM 2.5 pollution and improvement in environmental equity

Carbon policies differentiated according to regional disparities have been recognized and recommended. However, the air quality co-benefits of differentiated policies remain unclear. Here we combine a multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and an extend response surface model (ERSM) to investigate the impact of nationally uniform and subnationally differentiated carbon pricing policies on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in China. All policies examined lead to the same accumulated national CO 2 emissions (2020–2050), with the 2030 emissions attaining China&#x27;s national abatement target. We find that, when subnational policies differentiated according to provincial PM 2.5 concentrations are implemented, the higher-than-average carbon price over more polluted provinces results in twice as much reduction in CO 2 and air pollutant emissions in 2050 as the national policy. As a result, the subnational policies cause larger PM 2.5 concentration reductions in these provinces (9%–18%) than the national policy (7%–11%). Also, the subnational policies eliminate high PM 2.5 exposure of over 45 μg/m 3 which 12% people suffer from under the national policy. Overall, the subnational policies substantially reduce regional disparity in PM 2.5 pollution and hence improve environmental equity. The results suggest that subnationally differentiated carbon policies are a promising instrument to mitigate severe pollution and promote environmental equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimization of Car Body under Constraints of Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH), and Crash

To be competitive on the today's market, cars have to be as light as possible while meeting the Noise, Vibration, and Harshness (NVH) requirements and conforming to Government-man dated crash survival regulations. The latter are difficult to meet because they involve very compute-intensive, nonlinear analysis, e.g., the code RADIOSS capable of simulation of the dynamics, and the geometrical and material nonlinearities of a thin-walled car structure in crash, would require over 12 days of elapsed time for a single design of a 390K elastic degrees of freedom model, if executed on a single processor of the state-of-the-art SGI Origin2000 computer. Of course, in optimization that crash analysis would have to be invoked many times. Needless to say, that has rendered such optimization intractable until now. The car finite element model is shown. The advent of computers that comprise large numbers of concurrently operating processors has created a new environment wherein the above optimization, and other engineering problems heretofore regarded as intractable may be solved. The procedure, shown, is a piecewise approximation based method and involves using a sensitivity based Taylor series approximation model for NVH and a polynomial response surface model for Crash. In that method the NVH constraints are evaluated using a finite element code (MSC/NASTRAN) that yields the constraint values and their derivatives with respect to design variables. The crash constraints are evaluated using the explicit code RADIOSS on the Origin 2000 operating on 256 processors simultaneously to generate data for a polynomial response surface in the design variable domain. The NVH constraints and their derivatives combined with the response surface for the crash constraints form an approximation to the system analysis (surrogate analysis) that enables a cycle of multidisciplinary optimization within move limits. In the inner loop, the NVH sensitivities are recomputed to update the NVH approximation model while keeping the Crash response surface constant. In every outer loop, the Crash response surface approximation is updated, including a gradual increase in the order of the response surface and the response surface extension in the direction of the search. In this optimization task, the NVH discipline has 30 design variables while the crash discipline has 20 design variables. A subset of these design variables (10) are common to both the NVH and crash disciplines. In order to construct a linear response surface for the Crash discipline constraints, a minimum of 21 design points would have to be analyzed using the RADIOSS code. On a single processor in Origin 2000 that amount of computing would require over 9 months! In this work, these runs were carried out concurrently on the Origin 2000 using multiple processors, ranging from 8 to 16, for each crash (RADIOSS) analysis. Another figure shows the wall time required for a single RADIOSS analysis using varying number of processors, as well as provides a comparison of 2 different common data placement procedures within the allotted memories for each analysis. The initial design is an infeasible design with NVH discipline Static Torsion constraint violations of over 10%. The final optimized design is a feasible design with a weight reduction of 15 kg compared to the initial design. This work demonstrates how advanced methodology for optimization combined with the technology of concurrent processing enables applications that until now were out of reach because of very long time-to-solution.

Kodiyalam, Srinivas↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Energy & Fuels↗

A Computational Approach for Probabilistic Analysis of LS-DYNA Water Impact Simulations

NASA s development of new concepts for the Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion presents many similar challenges to those worked in the sixties during the Apollo program. However, with improved modeling capabilities, new challenges arise. For example, the use of the commercial code LS-DYNA, although widely used and accepted in the technical community, often involves high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive simulations. Because of the computational cost, these tools are often used to evaluate specific conditions and rarely used for statistical analysis. The challenge is to capture what is learned from a limited number of LS-DYNA simulations to develop models that allow users to conduct interpolation of solutions at a fraction of the computational time. For this problem, response surface models are used to predict the system time responses to a water landing as a function of capsule speed, direction, attitude, water speed, and water direction. Furthermore, these models can also be used to ascertain the adequacy of the design in terms of probability measures. This paper presents a description of the LS-DYNA model, a brief summary of the response surface techniques, the analysis of variance approach used in the sensitivity studies, equations used to estimate impact parameters, results showing conditions that might cause injuries, and concluding remarks.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Rapid Aero Modeling of a Lift+Cruise UAM Configuration for Stability and Control Using Overset Grid CFD

This talk will address some aspects of an effort to develop both static and dynamic stability and control derivatives of a generic Lift+Cruise Urban Air Mobility vehicle. In particular, the use of NASA overset grid CFD packages OVERFLOW and Chimera Grid Tools allowed for rapid grid and solution generation while varying many database factors. Approach details include coarse gridding and control effectors, rotor disk modeling, convergence evaluation, and parallel execution on a midrange compute resource. A brief *description of the Rapid Aero Modeling (RAM) approach, including design of experiments and response surface modeling, will be given, and recent simulations of powered and unpowered dynamic multisine maneuvers will be presented.

Overset Grid CFD↗

Automated Fiber Placement of PEEK/IM7 Composites with Film Interleaf Layers

The incorporation of thin discrete layers of resin between plies (interleafing) has been shown to improve fatigue and impact properties of structural composite materials. Furthermore, interleafing could be used to increase the barrier properties of composites used as structural materials for cryogenic propellant storage. In this work, robotic heated-head tape placement of PEEK/IM7 composites containing a PEEK polymer film interleaf was investigated. These experiments were carried out at the NASA Langley Research Center automated fiber placement facility. Using the robotic equipment, an optimal fabrication process was developed for the composite without the interleaf. Preliminary interleaf processing trials indicated that a two-stage process was necessary; the film had to be tacked to the partially-placed laminate then fully melted in a separate operation. Screening experiments determined the relative influence of the various robotic process variables on the peel strength of the film-composite interface. Optimization studies were performed in which peel specimens were fabricated at various compaction loads and roller temperatures at each of three film melt processing rates. The resulting data were fitted with quadratic response surfaces. Additional specimens were fabricated at placement parameters predicted by the response surface models to yield high peel strength in an attempt to gage the accuracy of the predicted response and assess the repeatability of the process. The overall results indicate that quality PEEK/lM7 laminates having film interleaves can be successfully and repeatability fabricated by heated head automated fiber placement.

Hulcher, A. Bruce↗

The Impact of Truth Surrogate Variance on Quality Assessment/Assurance in Wind Tunnel Testing

Minimum data volume requirements for wind tunnel testing are reviewed and shown to depend on error tolerance, response model complexity, random error variance in the measurement environment, and maximum acceptable levels of inference error risk. Distinctions are made between such related concepts as quality assurance and quality assessment in response surface modeling, as well as between precision and accuracy. Earlier research on the scaling of wind tunnel tests is extended to account for variance in the truth surrogates used at confirmation sites in the design space to validate proposed response models. A model adequacy metric is presented that represents the fraction of the design space within which model predictions can be expected to satisfy prescribed quality specifications. The impact of inference error on the assessment of response model residuals is reviewed. The number of sites where reasonably well-fitted response models actually predict inadequately is shown to be considerably less than the number of sites where residuals are out of tolerance. The significance of such inference error effects on common response model assessment strategies is examined.

DeLoach, Richard↗